Poll - Leveon or CEH - who will be the #1 fantasy RB this year?

[hoos89]

It just feels like people are trying to crap on the situation now to dismiss Bell, while also still using it to prop up Edwards-Helaire, who was never loved because he's a high-end talent.

CEH is in the situation long term, while Bell is probably in it for a year (and CEH is the entrenched RB1, not Bell so it's a worse situation for him than for CEH). THIS YEAR, the O Line has been pretty bad, but I think that's something that can be fixed long term. IF CEH goes down then I think Bell is a high RB2, maybe low RB1...not sure that's league winning upside but I guess that's semantics.

He's the #5 RB in the NFL in scrimmage yards, #8 in yards after contact per carry*, #2 in broken tackles, and #2 in yards per reception among RBs (behind Kamara). He's been very good.

*Not 100% sure about this one...I think there's a minimum number of carries qualifier on it.

I'm not saying that he's been garbage, I'm just saying that he hasn't been elite and he hasn't. The production is fine, but it would not take an elite RB to eat into his snap share. It would simply take a more capable early down RB, who also doesn't decrease their receiving game.

Those numbers are all in elite territory. Run blocking is holding him back.

[Cameron Giles]

I’m surprised no one has asked if Bell will end the year on the Chiefs. I think there a decent chance he gets cut along the way. They’ve invested nothing in him and if he isn’t happy with his role, watch out. The Chiefs run blocking is worse than the Jets, it’s pretty close to the worst in the league so he is also walking into a worse rushing situation.

That's not true. KC's offensive line is averaging 4.21 adjusted yards while NY's is averaging 4.08. It's not a major difference and both are about league average this year. The worst in the league is the Giants at 3.07.

The major difference is that the Chiefs are using their RBs in the receiving game and the Jets are not.

Jets RB targets:

Ballage - 10 ( )
Gore - 5
Bell - 3

Chiefs RB targets:

CEH - 27
Williams - 11

[Cameron Giles]

CEH is in the situation long term, while Bell is probably in it for a year (and CEH is the entrenched RB1, not Bell so it's a worse situation for him than for CEH). THIS YEAR, the O Line has been pretty bad, but I think that's something that can be fixed long term. IF CEH goes down then I think Bell is a high RB2, maybe low RB1...not sure that's league winning upside but I guess that's semantics.

I understand that, but when you prop up RBs to Top-5 startup value, it's also based significantly on their impact THIS YEAR. Now people are walking that situation back for Bell ROS, while still using it to say that CEH is going to produce THIS YEAR.

There is a clear night and day difference from being in an Adam Gase offense and going to an Andy Reid offense. Bell is not 32-year-old Shady McCoy just yet and the use in the receiving game is going to be a boost if the offensive line isn't getting any push up front on runs.

Those numbers are all in elite territory. Run blocking is holding him back.

It's good production, but he has not looked like an elite RB outside of Week 1.

[thebeast]

I’m surprised no one has asked if Bell will end the year on the Chiefs. I think there a decent chance he gets cut along the way. They’ve invested nothing in him and if he isn’t happy with his role, watch out. The Chiefs run blocking is worse than the Jets, it’s pretty close to the worst in the league so he is also walking into a worse rushing situation.

That's not true. KC's offensive line is averaging 4.21 adjusted yards while NY's is averaging 4.08. It's not a major difference and both are about league average this year. The worst in the league is the Giants at 3.07.

The major difference is that the Chiefs are using their RBs in the receiving game and the Jets are not.

Jets RB targets:

Ballage - 10 ( )
Gore - 5
Bell - 3

Chiefs RB targets:

CEH - 27
Williams - 11

Scroll down to Team Run Block Win Rate https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/299 ... s#rbwrteam.

Chiefs are 27th in Run Block Win Rate, 5th worst in the league.

If you would like to learn more about the ESPN stats you can look here https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/298 ... -rate-work

[hoos89]

That's not true. KC's offensive line is averaging 4.21 adjusted yards while NY's is averaging 4.08. It's not a major difference and both are about league average this year. The worst in the league is the Giants at 3.07.

Adjusted line yards is not really dispositive on line play. It's essentially just modified YPC and is a super messy proxy for how well the line is doing. The Chiefs are worst in the league in converting 3rd/4th & 2 or less. Now I guess that could be because CEH is just historically bad at it, or it could be because he's getting hit in the backfield on like 80% of those attempts because the line can't block (it's looked like the latter to me).

[Kelldon]

I don't have either player on my team. I think this slightly helps Bell's numbers and hurts CEH. I don't think either rb will finish top 12 and prolly not even top 15 RoS. I can see one of them finishing near top 15 and the other just inside top 24. Bell will get most of the rb td's.

This situation isn't nearly as good as the Browns with Chubb and Hunt. Browns oline is significantly better and they run more than Chiefs. Chiefs will call a few more run plays but not as many as the Browns. Plus Chiefs just lost one of their guards for the year(maybe career ending).

[Kelldon]

I don't have either player on my team. I think this slightly helps Bell's numbers and hurts CEH. I don't think either rb will finish top 12 and prolly not even top 15 RoS. I can see one of them finishing near top 15 and the other just inside top 24. Bell will get most of the rb td's.

This situation isn't nearly as good as the Browns with Chubb and Hunt. Browns oline is significantly better and they run more than Chiefs. Chiefs will call a few more run plays but not as many as the Browns. Plus Chiefs just lost one of their guards for the year(maybe career ending).

[Cameron Giles]

I’m surprised no one has asked if Bell will end the year on the Chiefs. I think there a decent chance he gets cut along the way. They’ve invested nothing in him and if he isn’t happy with his role, watch out. The Chiefs run blocking is worse than the Jets, it’s pretty close to the worst in the league so he is also walking into a worse rushing situation.

That's not true. KC's offensive line is averaging 4.21 adjusted yards while NY's is averaging 4.08. It's not a major difference and both are about league average this year. The worst in the league is the Giants at 3.07.

The major difference is that the Chiefs are using their RBs in the receiving game and the Jets are not.

Jets RB targets:

Ballage - 10 ( )
Gore - 5
Bell - 3

Chiefs RB targets:

CEH - 27
Williams - 11

Scroll down to Team Run Block Win Rate https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/299 ... s#rbwrteam.

Chiefs are 27th in Run Block Win Rate, 5th worst in the league.

If you would like to learn more about the ESPN stats you can look here https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/298 ... -rate-work

Adjusted Line Yards is a more valuable stat than this and frequently matches up with good run blocking years, and some of the all-time best. It's not perfect, but the alignment is there. It gives you a great history of KCs offensive line recently and was the main reason I told everyone in the CEH thread that the Chiefs offensive line wasn't good at run blocking in the offseason before everyone caught on now.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats ... -line/2020

[hoos89]

Adjusted line yards is a somewhat arbitrary stat derived from rushing yards. Why are losses worth 120% and not 150% or some other number? Is there a basis for that? It has value for sure, but I think it's not really showing you quite how bad the Chiefs are at run blocking this year. It's not like there's someone looking at each play and estimating how many yards on each run play were created by the line vs the RB...if the OL misses a block and CEH spins out of hit and gets a 4 yard gain, those yards are counted 100% in adjusted line yards, even though the RB really created about 6-8 yards on the play and the line created negative 2-4 yards. If you have an RB that's really good at avoiding the first defender behind the LoS then he's going to inflate adjusted line yards...and to my amateur eye, CEH looks really good at that.

They're dead last in the league in power success rate...when they're in clear running situation they can't run the ball. Ultimately these stats are all going to be confounded with other factors though, whereas run block win rate is actually directly analyzing line play rather than manipulating box score stats. And that stat says the Chiefs are among the worst in the league.

[thebeast]

That's not true. KC's offensive line is averaging 4.21 adjusted yards while NY's is averaging 4.08. It's not a major difference and both are about league average this year. The worst in the league is the Giants at 3.07.

The major difference is that the Chiefs are using their RBs in the receiving game and the Jets are not.

Jets RB targets:

Ballage - 10 ( )
Gore - 5
Bell - 3

Chiefs RB targets:

CEH - 27
Williams - 11

Scroll down to Team Run Block Win Rate https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/299 ... s#rbwrteam.

Chiefs are 27th in Run Block Win Rate, 5th worst in the league.

If you would like to learn more about the ESPN stats you can look here https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/298 ... -rate-work

Adjusted Line Yards is a more valuable stat than this and frequently matches up with good run blocking years, and some of the all-time best. It's not perfect, but the alignment is there. It gives you a great history of KCs offensive line recently and was the main reason I told everyone in the CEH thread that the Chiefs offensive line wasn't good at run blocking in the offseason before everyone caught on now.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats ... -line/2020

I don’t know man, I’ve watched quite a bit of the Chiefs games and their Oline play hasn’t looked good at all, especially around the goal line so I don’t really trust that stat. I’m also not sure why football outsiders stat would be better than ESPNs NextGen stats, but based on what I’ve seen it clearly isn’t.

[Plank]

probably whoever gets injured will fall ...

[jordanzs]

CEH is looking great today.

But, for "fantasy purposes", I wonder if he'll have a great YPC and get you 11 points each week while rushing for 110 yards, meanwhile Le'veon will siphon those cheap ppr points & TDs & be the preferred play.

[AussieMate]

I don't have either player on my team. I think this slightly helps Bell's numbers and hurts CEH. I don't think either rb will finish top 12 and prolly not even top 15 RoS. I can see one of them finishing near top 15 and the other just inside top 24. Bell will get most of the rb td's.

This situation isn't nearly as good as the Browns with Chubb and Hunt. Browns oline is significantly better and they run more than Chiefs. Chiefs will call a few more run plays but not as many as the Browns. Plus Chiefs just lost one of their guards for the year(maybe career ending).

The fact that we can say the Browns oline is significantly better than anyone is a testament to their organisation finally doing something right. I know this thread is about the chiefs but that line stood out to me after how average Browns oline has been.

[My BallZach Ertz]

CEH is looking great today.

But, for "fantasy purposes", I wonder if he'll have a great YPC and get you 11 points each week while rushing for 110 yards, meanwhile Le'veon will siphon those cheap ppr points & TDs & be the preferred play.

I’m still taking Clyde. He’s better than Bell at this point and it’s not hard to see.

[Pac_Eddy]

CEH is looking great today.

But, for "fantasy purposes", I wonder if he'll have a great YPC and get you 11 points each week while rushing for 110 yards, meanwhile Le'veon will siphon those cheap ppr points & TDs & be the preferred play.

I’m still taking Clyde. He’s better than Bell at this point and it’s not hard to see.

Bell had no motivation in New York. He may be better than we've seen the last couple of seasons. I'll still take CEH though.