2020 Rookie RB's

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Mike11
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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Mike11 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:29 pm

Akers problem is going to be

1) Nuances of the rb position (his agility and physical traits are great, they're just not always enough. To date it's been JTs problem too)
2) Henderson is roughly the same age and they like him too, at best he's worked into a committee but this isn't exactly an appetizing situation as it stands, and I don't see it changing whereas Mack with JT, Ingram with Dobbins and AP with Swift can all be out of the way next year.

Back to Dobbins, I'm saying this as a Baltimore fan. What you essentially want to happen is Dobbins to dominate RB touches, have him be ultra efficient with them and have way less competition. I've said this since the offseason, it's not really Dobbins that's the issue for fantasy purposes but it's the following

1) Lamar's legs will always be a factor, that includes near the goal line
2) The Ravens will likely always employ some form of a committee which will be at a minimum Lamar + 1 other RB (Likely one who is on the roster already)
3) The Ravens efficiency running last year was historic, I don't anticipate that and then even if you were to say it happens again in the future I don't think Dobbins will way outperform Ingrams 5 YPC or high td rate (10)
4) What makes stud rbs is the ability to catches a significant amount of passes; see Kamara, McCaffrey and Cook. Truth be told the more mobile your QB is the less likely he dumps the ball off, that's not to say Dobbins can't catch; I just don't see more than a ceiling of 40 receptions (Ingram had 26 on 29 Targets and can catch so I think that's generous).

Long story short, I really don't dislike Dobbins and I'm happy he's a Raven as a true fan of the Ravens, but I definitely don't think I'm accepting he's anything above the 4th RB I want of this lot, if JT continues to Flounder I think I'd put him above JT from a skills perspective.

My RB Ranks so far through 9 weeks is
-- Tier 1 --
1. CEH
2. Swift (I think this is close though; I really do foresee a Swift eruption if AP becomes less involved soon)

-- Tier 2 --
3. JT
4. Dobbins
5. Robinson (Man... It's hard to ignore what he's done, but there has to be a slight uncertainty about his future with Jax. I might move him above Dobbins soon, I get if others won't)
6. Gibson (He's looked good, still a little raw and idk if I can ever have full faith in WFT as an org)

--Tier 3 --
7. Akers (Discussed him up top)

--Tier 4--

The rest: Dillon, Vaughn, etc. (too little data to say but prefer Dillon and what we've seen to Vaughn however minimal it is)
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QbAaron Rodgers Lamar Justin Herbert, Cousins
RbChubb JT Gurley
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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:11 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:26 pm

I'm concerned Baltimore will bring back Gus Edwards and/or bring someone else in and just keep with the committee approach. That entire Baltimore offense was so efficient in 2019 than everyone had great stats on limited touches, including Ingram. If they stick with the RBBC everyone is going to be disappointed unless they can suddenly return to their 2019 form.
I think rushing wise Dobbins will be fine. They're a run first team.

The bigger issue for me is that because Lamar is such an insanely talented runner, he doesn't check down to RBs when he's in trouble. Baltimore backs do not catch many passes. Ingram led them with 26 last year. The highest total right now is 14...for 87 yards.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby lic217 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:54 pm

Preseason ranks:
CEH
JT
Dobbins
Swift
Now:
CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT

Swift has surprised me the most. He has looked really good. I thought his last year in college his film looked not special. His second to last year in college his film looks special and he seems to be showing a lot of that in Detroit. To be honest I think Swift and JK Dobbins have looked the best so far to My eye. CEH has looked really good at times and then mediocre at times. I thought he was The best running back by a decent margin coming out. This was before Kansas City drafted him as well so it’s not just landing spot dependent. I’ve been a little disappointed with how he’s performed. I thought he was going to be incredible right from the beginning and especially with the Kansas City offense.

Full disclosure: I suck at reading running backs coming out. I think I’m OKAY at wide receivers. So take everything I said with a serious grain of salt
12 team ppr, .2 ppc
1Qb:Carr,Jones,Tua,
1-3Rb:Gaskins,Singeltary,Moss,Dobbins
2-5Wr:AJB,Deebo,Hollywood,Miller,Slayton,Fulgham
1-2TE:Gesicki,Oliver,I.smith,Thomas
2021:1,1,1,1,2,2,
2022: 1,1,1,1,1,2,2

10 team ppr, 1.5 te, long bonus,.2ppc
1-2 qb: Carr,Darnold,Tua,Minshew
2-4 rb Gaskins, Robinson, Malcolm Brown,Lyndsay
2-5 wrShepard,DJ Moore,Chark,Juedy,Renfrow,Lazard,Claypool,Hamler
1-2 te Herdon,JSmith
2021:1,1,1

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Sriracha » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:12 pm

I could see Akers and Henderson in a committee for a while, with Akers taking the passing down work.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Krypto_King » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:25 pm

I can't wait for the melt down when Lev Bell walks and KC signs Gus Edwards to a 3 year deal.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Sriracha » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:41 pm

Krypto_King wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:25 pm
I can't wait for the melt down when Lev Bell walks and KC signs Gus Edwards to a 3 year deal.
Damien Williams should be back...

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby mild » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:44 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:41 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:25 pm
I can't wait for the melt down when Lev Bell walks and KC signs Gus Edwards to a 3 year deal.
Damien Williams should be back...
It's definitely a lovely idea, and I could see KC bringing in more competition. I don't think the Gus Bus actually fits their mould of what KC want in an RB though - pass catching is a must in their system. Anything and everything to juice Pat's passing stats even more... by the end of his KC career, they want him to own every offensive passing record known to man.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Krypto_King » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:15 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:41 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:25 pm
I can't wait for the melt down when Lev Bell walks and KC signs Gus Edwards to a 3 year deal.
Damien Williams should be back...
I forgot about him but seriously they'd be nuts to rely on the 29yo journeyman being the same after a year off

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Sriracha » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:30 pm

Krypto_King wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:15 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:41 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:25 pm
I can't wait for the melt down when Lev Bell walks and KC signs Gus Edwards to a 3 year deal.
Damien Williams should be back...
I forgot about him but seriously they'd be nuts to rely on the 29yo journeyman being the same after a year off
They dont need an RB to “rely” on. Williams will be good when he’s healthy enough to play. When not they’ll lean on CEH and w/e run of the mill RB they pickup

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby kmbryant09 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:31 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:17 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:57 am
Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:27 am

And this is why the Cowboys and Giants are two of the worst teams in the league. Can also add in the Raiders and Pats for recently taking Rb in the first.
Yep. I would guess that every team that's taken an RB in the Top 10 recently, regrets it to some degree:

Giants - Barkley (Quentin Nelson, Bradley Chubb, Denzel Ward still available)

Jaguars - Fournette (Jamal Adams, Mahomes, Watson, Lattimore still available)

Cowboys - Zeke (Ramsey, Stanley still available)

Panthers - CMC ( Lattimore, Humphrey still available)

It's just awful value even if they turn out to be elite RBs.
Other than QBs, no one in the NFL gets nitpicked more than RBs drafted in the first round. Other than LF, those guys were hits. Hindsight allows you to pick the best possible players selected after them in the draft. The list of misses is much longer.
There is such a huge difference between being a good RB and being an impactful player in the NFL. Sure, all teams would rather have CMC than someone like W. Gallman. But the overall impact to a game of football is so insignificant that there are plenty of other positions that end up being more valuable than RB's.

Carolina didn't miss a beat without CMC.
Cleveland didn't miss a beat without N. Chubb.
New York Giants didn't miss a beat without Barkley.
C. Edmonds has outperformed K. Drake.
T. Pollard has outperformed Z. Elliot.
T. Gurley is dust at the age of 25/26.
Chargers offense hasn't stuttered without Ekeler.
One of the most productive RB's in the league is an UDFA Rookie.

A RB's success is so dependent on his team's QB, play-calling, offensive line and overall offense ability. Give me an UDFA RB in a good situation over a 1st round RB in a bad situation - that's all you need to know about the value of RB's in today's NFL.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, J. Hurts, B. Mayfield
RB: M. Sanders, C. Edwards-Helaire, A. Ekeler, J.K. Dobbins, A. Gibson, M. Gaskin, T. Pollard, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards, B. Scott
WR: A.J. Brown, T. Higgins, Di. Johnson, O. Beckham Jr., J. Reagor, D. Mooney, P. Williams, Q. Cephus
TE: E. Engram, I. Smith Jr., R. Gronkowski

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2021 Picks: 1.08 / 2.05 / 3.10 / 4.10
2022 Picks: 2nd, 4th
2023 Picks: 1, (2x) 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby mild » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:44 pm

kmbryant09 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:31 pm
There is such a huge difference between being a good RB and being an impactful player in the NFL. Sure, all teams would rather have CMC than someone like W. Gallman. But the overall impact to a game of football is so insignificant that there are plenty of other positions that end up being more valuable than RB's.

Carolina didn't miss a beat without CMC.
Cleveland didn't miss a beat without N. Chubb.
New York Giants didn't miss a beat without Barkley.
C. Edmonds has outperformed K. Drake.
T. Pollard has outperformed Z. Elliot.
T. Gurley is dust at the age of 25/26.
Chargers offense hasn't stuttered without Ekeler.
One of the most productive RB's in the league is an UDFA Rookie.

A RB's success is so dependent on his team's QB, play-calling, offensive line and overall offense ability. Give me an UDFA RB in a good situation over a 1st round RB in a bad situation - that's all you need to know about the value of RB's in today's NFL.
I don't disagree on the fungible nature of RB's in the modern NFL, however I would like to contend three of these points:

- The Giants have arguably missed every beat possible. They are a disgrace.
- The Chargers are 2-6 and at the bottom of their division, have had serious trouble running the ball, and have blown games in back-to-back weeks that an Ekeler-level talent would at the least have helped them attempt to win. No-one on that LAC team would dispute this.
- Cleveland replaced their All-Pro RB with another All-Pro RB. Their situation does not jibe with your hypothesis.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Sriracha » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:05 am

RB's are just one player.

You take away any player that's not a QB or an elite rusher and the team is not going to see a notable change.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby remedy29 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:28 pm

Mike11 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:29 pm
Akers problem is going to be

1) Nuances of the rb position (his agility and physical traits are great, they're just not always enough. To date it's been JTs problem too)
2) Henderson is roughly the same age and they like him too, at best he's worked into a committee but this isn't exactly an appetizing situation as it stands, and I don't see it changing whereas Mack with JT, Ingram with Dobbins and AP with Swift can all be out of the way next year.

Back to Dobbins, I'm saying this as a Baltimore fan. What you essentially want to happen is Dobbins to dominate RB touches, have him be ultra efficient with them and have way less competition. I've said this since the offseason, it's not really Dobbins that's the issue for fantasy purposes but it's the following

1) Lamar's legs will always be a factor, that includes near the goal line
2) The Ravens will likely always employ some form of a committee which will be at a minimum Lamar + 1 other RB (Likely one who is on the roster already)
3) The Ravens efficiency running last year was historic, I don't anticipate that and then even if you were to say it happens again in the future I don't think Dobbins will way outperform Ingrams 5 YPC or high td rate (10)
4) What makes stud rbs is the ability to catches a significant amount of passes; see Kamara, McCaffrey and Cook. Truth be told the more mobile your QB is the less likely he dumps the ball off, that's not to say Dobbins can't catch; I just don't see more than a ceiling of 40 receptions (Ingram had 26 on 29 Targets and can catch so I think that's generous).

Long story short, I really don't dislike Dobbins and I'm happy he's a Raven as a true fan of the Ravens, but I definitely don't think I'm accepting he's anything above the 4th RB I want of this lot, if JT continues to Flounder I think I'd put him above JT from a skills perspective.

My RB Ranks so far through 9 weeks is
-- Tier 1 --
1. CEH
2. Swift (I think this is close though; I really do foresee a Swift eruption if AP becomes less involved soon)

-- Tier 2 --
3. JT
4. Dobbins
5. Robinson (Man... It's hard to ignore what he's done, but there has to be a slight uncertainty about his future with Jax. I might move him above Dobbins soon, I get if others won't)
6. Gibson (He's looked good, still a little raw and idk if I can ever have full faith in WFT as an org)

--Tier 3 --
7. Akers (Discussed him up top)

--Tier 4--

The rest: Dillon, Vaughn, etc. (too little data to say but prefer Dillon and what we've seen to Vaughn however minimal it is)
This is spot on. I always felt the love for Dobbins was overblown. He is in a good spot for RB relevancy, but he is not in a good spot for high end RB1 production.

Your review on Akers makes me want to rescind my Ruggs for Akers offer. I think both have equal chances of succeeding, but I'd prefer the talented Akers in the Rams RB focused offense.
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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby TD41 » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:14 pm

ITT: Somebody says Giants didn't miss a beat without Saquon Barkley...

Sidenote if JT runs for 60 and a TD tonight, are we happy with that considering where he's been the last few weeks?

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Sriracha » Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:38 pm

TD41 wrote:
Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:14 pm
ITT: Somebody says Giants didn't miss a beat without Saquon Barkley...

Sidenote if JT runs for 60 and a TD tonight, are we happy with that considering where he's been the last few weeks?
JT really needs to explode to recover some his equity. 60 and a TD would probably just further the narrative that he's the same as he's been this whole season.


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