2020 Rookie RB's

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ManuManu
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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby ManuManu » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:59 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:35 am
ManuManu wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:48 am
A lot of consternation over one failed finish at the end of a long run. He’s getting used to NFL speed. I expect in the future we won’t see those kinds of finishes, as I suspect he was surprised he got caught so quickly.

That said, Swift isn’t exactly the most elusive back. He has some make-you-miss, but it’s more through subtle cuts at top speed, not shake and bake. I don’t think he’ll necessarily create big runs on his own, but if he has the crease, his strengths are hitting that crease and accelerating to top speed quickly.

As he gains experience he’ll become the primary passing down back as well. Then the value skyrockets.
I don't think so. He's already valued really highly. He's a top 30 startup pick right now. I mean, he could get into the first round next year, but most of the top rookie RB's have most of their upside baked into the cost of acquiring them, from their owners. Swift has top 15 target share already, so he's getting a ton of receiving work.
He’s doing all of that on something like ~35 percent of the snaps. Kerryon has been playing a lot of passing downs (snap percentage is in the 20s). Once Swift gets into the 60 percent rate and is the passing down back I think he’s going to be looked at much more favorably, going from around ADP30 or whatever to early second round. That’s a big spike IMO.
Team 1, 10-team 0.5-PPR
QB (1): Wentz, Cam, Tannehill
RB (2-3): Swift, Dobbins, David Johnson, K. Johnson, Duke Johnson, D. Harris, J. Jackson, D. Evans
WR (3-4): Hill, A-Rob, Diggs, Fuller, Reagor, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Isabella, P. Williams, Perriman, Fulgham
TE (1-2): J. Smith, Hurst

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:13 pm

ManuManu wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:59 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:35 am
ManuManu wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:48 am
A lot of consternation over one failed finish at the end of a long run. He’s getting used to NFL speed. I expect in the future we won’t see those kinds of finishes, as I suspect he was surprised he got caught so quickly.

That said, Swift isn’t exactly the most elusive back. He has some make-you-miss, but it’s more through subtle cuts at top speed, not shake and bake. I don’t think he’ll necessarily create big runs on his own, but if he has the crease, his strengths are hitting that crease and accelerating to top speed quickly.

As he gains experience he’ll become the primary passing down back as well. Then the value skyrockets.
I don't think so. He's already valued really highly. He's a top 30 startup pick right now. I mean, he could get into the first round next year, but most of the top rookie RB's have most of their upside baked into the cost of acquiring them, from their owners. Swift has top 15 target share already, so he's getting a ton of receiving work.
He’s doing all of that on something like ~35 percent of the snaps. Kerryon has been playing a lot of passing downs (snap percentage is in the 20s). Once Swift gets into the 60 percent rate and is the passing down back I think he’s going to be looked at much more favorably, going from around ADP30 or whatever to early second round. That’s a big spike IMO.
Sure. I guess that's a decent jump, just not what I would call skyrocketing, but I won't quibble over a term. However Swift may not get the 3rd down work. Bevel just made the comments today that KJ is their 3rd down guy.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/ ... 999544002/

“So Adrian gets the start and then from there we kind of have numbers all over the game plan for specific plays and it could be guys going in and out,” he said. “Also, it could be I guess, situational plays are probably the best way to describe it. You know, Kerryon is kind of our third-down guy. He’s our third-down runner. He’s our third-down protection back.

So Swift's target share right now is really good. Even for a back who is getting more snaps. I'm not sure you'll get the numbers you desire, this year. Pass protection, it seems like KJ is the guy, and he was always a pretty good receiving back.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby ManuManu » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:02 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:13 pm
ManuManu wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:59 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:35 am


I don't think so. He's already valued really highly. He's a top 30 startup pick right now. I mean, he could get into the first round next year, but most of the top rookie RB's have most of their upside baked into the cost of acquiring them, from their owners. Swift has top 15 target share already, so he's getting a ton of receiving work.
He’s doing all of that on something like ~35 percent of the snaps. Kerryon has been playing a lot of passing downs (snap percentage is in the 20s). Once Swift gets into the 60 percent rate and is the passing down back I think he’s going to be looked at much more favorably, going from around ADP30 or whatever to early second round. That’s a big spike IMO.
Sure. I guess that's a decent jump, just not what I would call skyrocketing, but I won't quibble over a term. However Swift may not get the 3rd down work. Bevel just made the comments today that KJ is their 3rd down guy.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/ ... 999544002/

“So Adrian gets the start and then from there we kind of have numbers all over the game plan for specific plays and it could be guys going in and out,” he said. “Also, it could be I guess, situational plays are probably the best way to describe it. You know, Kerryon is kind of our third-down guy. He’s our third-down runner. He’s our third-down protection back.

So Swift's target share right now is really good. Even for a back who is getting more snaps. I'm not sure you'll get the numbers you desire, this year. Pass protection, it seems like KJ is the guy, and he was always a pretty good receiving back.
Sure, for now. Truncated offseason plus his injury limited how much he could digest. He’ll get at some point. Maybe it’s next year. Maybe it’s over the final month of the season.
Team 1, 10-team 0.5-PPR
QB (1): Wentz, Cam, Tannehill
RB (2-3): Swift, Dobbins, David Johnson, K. Johnson, Duke Johnson, D. Harris, J. Jackson, D. Evans
WR (3-4): Hill, A-Rob, Diggs, Fuller, Reagor, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Isabella, P. Williams, Perriman, Fulgham
TE (1-2): J. Smith, Hurst

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Krypto_King » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:23 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:57 am
Krypto_King wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:38 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQl4aBf ... hannel=NFL
this is really your king? All that footage is doing is making me bet the Chargers and their RBs for DFS. I'd be selling if you can get your initial investment back.
Wait so running through a huge hole and doing exactly what you are supposed to do is bad? Ceh had an amazing hole on his 32 yard scamper, im not gonna fault him for that. CEH also played against a bad run defense for his best game of the season and im not going to fault him for that. Im so confused by this argument, everything in that tape is good. Then Swift jumping over the line men for the score or bowling 6 yards through guys for the score is also bad? I thought everyone was worried about how he would run between the tackles? He also had a great gain up the middle for the first. Also to the people who are saying "Well it was a bad defense?" He did what he was supposed to do versus a bad defense, that is one of the worst arguments out there. He also wasnt even utilized in the passing game which is his strength. Man people really see what they want to see.
I apologize, I came out too strong in the negative. I had not seen any footage yet but every comment I saw was "can't buy now" "untouchable" and I expected more than 33% snap share, giant holes, and 0 missed or broken tackles. I wouldn't move him up or down based on that footage and I was already lower than market so yeah I'd still take a mid-early SF 1st all day.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:44 am

Krypto_King wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:23 am
Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:57 am
Krypto_King wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:38 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQl4aBf ... hannel=NFL
this is really your king? All that footage is doing is making me bet the Chargers and their RBs for DFS. I'd be selling if you can get your initial investment back.
Wait so running through a huge hole and doing exactly what you are supposed to do is bad? Ceh had an amazing hole on his 32 yard scamper, im not gonna fault him for that. CEH also played against a bad run defense for his best game of the season and im not going to fault him for that. Im so confused by this argument, everything in that tape is good. Then Swift jumping over the line men for the score or bowling 6 yards through guys for the score is also bad? I thought everyone was worried about how he would run between the tackles? He also had a great gain up the middle for the first. Also to the people who are saying "Well it was a bad defense?" He did what he was supposed to do versus a bad defense, that is one of the worst arguments out there. He also wasnt even utilized in the passing game which is his strength. Man people really see what they want to see.
I apologize, I came out too strong in the negative. I had not seen any footage yet but every comment I saw was "can't buy now" "untouchable" and I expected more than 33% snap share, giant holes, and 0 missed or broken tackles. I wouldn't move him up or down based on that footage and I was already lower than market so yeah I'd still take a mid-early SF 1st all day.
I am higher on Swift than you, but I have to agree about some of the tape. The parts in bold, the previous poster mentions. Everything in that tape wasn't good. His biggest run of the day, he left yards on the field. He should have done better. He did a good job hitting a very obvious hole, but really didn't use the angle to the sideline well, and then just basically gave himself up. He looked nice on a few of those runs, but there is room for improvement based on the opportunity that was provided. I know Waldman just did a breakdown on the good and the not so good from Swift this weekend. I watched it after making basing my options on what I saw, so didn't really affect how I saw it. Some around here don't like him, or don't like the idea of tape watching, but it's worth watch, if that's your thing. He does end the tape off with the important idea that Swift can improve on the things he didn't do so well. He's just a rookie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I8w5g_37n0

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Patsfan86 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:12 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:44 am
Krypto_King wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:23 am
Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:57 am


Wait so running through a huge hole and doing exactly what you are supposed to do is bad? Ceh had an amazing hole on his 32 yard scamper, im not gonna fault him for that. CEH also played against a bad run defense for his best game of the season and im not going to fault him for that. Im so confused by this argument, everything in that tape is good. Then Swift jumping over the line men for the score or bowling 6 yards through guys for the score is also bad? I thought everyone was worried about how he would run between the tackles? He also had a great gain up the middle for the first. Also to the people who are saying "Well it was a bad defense?" He did what he was supposed to do versus a bad defense, that is one of the worst arguments out there. He also wasnt even utilized in the passing game which is his strength. Man people really see what they want to see.
I apologize, I came out too strong in the negative. I had not seen any footage yet but every comment I saw was "can't buy now" "untouchable" and I expected more than 33% snap share, giant holes, and 0 missed or broken tackles. I wouldn't move him up or down based on that footage and I was already lower than market so yeah I'd still take a mid-early SF 1st all day.
I am higher on Swift than you, but I have to agree about some of the tape. The parts in bold, the previous poster mentions. Everything in that tape wasn't good. His biggest run of the day, he left yards on the field. He should have done better. He did a good job hitting a very obvious hole, but really didn't use the angle to the sideline well, and then just basically gave himself up. He looked nice on a few of those runs, but there is room for improvement based on the opportunity that was provided. I know Waldman just did a breakdown on the good and the not so good from Swift this weekend. I watched it after making basing my options on what I saw, so didn't really affect how I saw it. Some around here don't like him, or don't like the idea of tape watching, but it's worth watch, if that's your thing. He does end the tape off with the important idea that Swift can improve on the things he didn't do so well. He's just a rookie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I8w5g_37n0
Great Tape, thank you for sharing this. Basically to me it shows he can improve upon things like almost every rookie. Not every rookie is Saquon Barkley, it takes them a while to learn the nuances of the NFL. But i didnt see anything here that isnt fixable. If he can fix some of these things i see no reason he isnt a RB1 due to his catching ability except of course for Matt Patricia. I would also like to say i apologize and i came to far on the positive. He has things he can improve upon and not "everything in that tape is good" :) :) :)

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Krypto_King » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:55 pm

I'll do some pre-game watching but I'd like Waldman 1000x more if I actually got to see the play once in full speed before he spends 20 minutes showing me 3 frames at a time. Exaggeration but his presentation tilts me

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby ManuManu » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:46 pm

Krypto_King wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:55 pm
I'll do some pre-game watching but I'd like Waldman 1000x more if I actually got to see the play once in full speed before he spends 20 minutes showing me 3 frames at a time. Exaggeration but his presentation tilts me
This is spot on. I don’t have the patience for him to wax poetic for 10 minutes on one play in super slow-mo. And when I think he’s about to let the play run through he rewinds it and runs it in slow-mo again.

And him calling Hakeem Butler the best WR prospect he’s scouted (or something like that) has made it so I’ll never have patience for those videos again.
Team 1, 10-team 0.5-PPR
QB (1): Wentz, Cam, Tannehill
RB (2-3): Swift, Dobbins, David Johnson, K. Johnson, Duke Johnson, D. Harris, J. Jackson, D. Evans
WR (3-4): Hill, A-Rob, Diggs, Fuller, Reagor, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Isabella, P. Williams, Perriman, Fulgham
TE (1-2): J. Smith, Hurst

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:32 pm

ManuManu wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:46 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:55 pm
I'll do some pre-game watching but I'd like Waldman 1000x more if I actually got to see the play once in full speed before he spends 20 minutes showing me 3 frames at a time. Exaggeration but his presentation tilts me
This is spot on. I don’t have the patience for him to wax poetic for 10 minutes on one play in super slow-mo. And when I think he’s about to let the play run through he rewinds it and runs it in slow-mo again.

And him calling Hakeem Butler the best WR prospect he’s scouted (or something like that) has made it so I’ll never have patience for those videos again.
Actually, Ceedee Lamb has since got a higher grade.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:52 am

ManuManu wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:46 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:55 pm
I'll do some pre-game watching but I'd like Waldman 1000x more if I actually got to see the play once in full speed before he spends 20 minutes showing me 3 frames at a time. Exaggeration but his presentation tilts me
This is spot on. I don’t have the patience for him to wax poetic for 10 minutes on one play in super slow-mo. And when I think he’s about to let the play run through he rewinds it and runs it in slow-mo again.

And him calling Hakeem Butler the best WR prospect he’s scouted (or something like that) has made it so I’ll never have patience for those videos again.
He didn’t like Godwin for jumping for a pass

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Pac_Eddy » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:00 am

Krypto_King wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:55 pm
I'll do some pre-game watching but I'd like Waldman 1000x more if I actually got to see the play once in full speed before he spends 20 minutes showing me 3 frames at a time. Exaggeration but his presentation tilts me
This is my biggest gripe with him too. I have the same complaint for internet videos in general - people switch to super slow motion right before the good part of the video. IMO they should always run the whole video in full speed, then re-run the parts they want to highlight and comment on in slow motion if they choose.

Having the full speed version really helps with framing the context of what you're explaining.
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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby jcc6fd » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:50 pm

Jamycal Hasty is likely to get significant touches now with Mostert on IR. Not sure what to expect but there’s upside with his athletic profile in that offense.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Mahomes, Super Cam, Jones
RB: Cook, Fournette, Gurley, Henderson, Lindsay, Moss, Gaskin, M. Davis, J. Williams, Booker
WR: Julio, A.J. Brown, K. Allen, Cooks, TY, Perriman
TE: Kelce, Cook, Gronk
Taxi: Jalen Hurts

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:09 pm

jcc6fd wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:50 pm
Jamycal Hasty is likely to get significant touches now with Mostert on IR. Not sure what to expect but there’s upside with his athletic profile in that offense.
McKinnon set to start, but he isn't a bell cow, so yeah. Neither is Hasty, though. I expect about 8-10 carries, maybe a few more. They may just ride him, knowing he isn't a long term guy, and save Jet. Jet will get the passing down work the next few week, so he's still the play in a lineup if you had both.

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:14 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:09 pm
jcc6fd wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:50 pm
Jamycal Hasty is likely to get significant touches now with Mostert on IR. Not sure what to expect but there’s upside with his athletic profile in that offense.
McKinnon set to start, but he isn't a bell cow, so yeah. Neither is Hasty, though. I expect about 8-10 carries, maybe a few more. They may just ride him, knowing he isn't a long term guy, and save Jet. Jet will get the passing down work the next few week, so he's still the play in a lineup if you had both.
Jeff Wilson too... But he's questionable. Currently in a tough spot with Mostert out, Gaskin and JT on bye. Have Wilson in but debating on dropping him for Hasty, which is probably the smart move long term anyway
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert (IR), Gaskin (IR), Dillon, Ingram, Mattison, Scott, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Mullens, Luton, Minshew (IR)
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR)
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 1.03-1.06, 2, 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Postby jcc6fd » Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:46 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:14 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:09 pm
jcc6fd wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:50 pm
Jamycal Hasty is likely to get significant touches now with Mostert on IR. Not sure what to expect but there’s upside with his athletic profile in that offense.
McKinnon set to start, but he isn't a bell cow, so yeah. Neither is Hasty, though. I expect about 8-10 carries, maybe a few more. They may just ride him, knowing he isn't a long term guy, and save Jet. Jet will get the passing down work the next few week, so he's still the play in a lineup if you had both.
Jeff Wilson too... But he's questionable. Currently in a tough spot with Mostert out, Gaskin and JT on bye. Have Wilson in but debating on dropping him for Hasty, which is probably the smart move long term anyway
If I were betting I’d wager:
McKinnon is the main 3rd down/passing back with a few carries
Hasty is the preferred 1-2 down back with 8-15 touches dependent on game flow
Wilson, id active, is the preferred short yardage/GL back with a few additional carries.

I hope they give Hasty a real shot. He’s more exciting that Wilson and it’s my understanding that he is a capable pass catcher
10 Team Half PPR Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Mahomes, Super Cam, Jones
RB: Cook, Fournette, Gurley, Henderson, Lindsay, Moss, Gaskin, M. Davis, J. Williams, Booker
WR: Julio, A.J. Brown, K. Allen, Cooks, TY, Perriman
TE: Kelce, Cook, Gronk
Taxi: Jalen Hurts


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