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Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:08 pm
by Vcize
It was actually a Michael Thomas discussion in another thread that caused me to pull the data but for those that were wondering on somewhat similar comps to Mike Evans, here are all the guys that had 3+ 1000 yard seasons prior to age 27 and then failed to reach 75 receptions or 900 yards in either their age 27 or 28 season.
Randy Moss
Donald Driver
Santana Moss
Plaxico Burress
Dwayne Bowe
Dez Bryant
Darrell Jackson
Stevie Johnson
Mike Wallace
AJ Green
In that case we were talking about MT so I left in the guys who had injuries that caused them to miss a large portion of the year. In this case since we're talking about Evans who hasn't missed time I put a minimum games played limiter on (it only eliminated VJax, who had a season ending injury in week 5 of his age 27 season).
Obviously many of these guys at their peak weren't as good as Evans at his but of the 10 guys, 9 of them still saw their value fall off precipitously from the "low" level it was at during their down season.
Maybe Evans is more Moss and less Dez/AJG/Plaxico, but I think these guys bounce back less often that people realize.
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:44 pm
by CGW
Vcize wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:08 pm
It was actually a Michael Thomas discussion in another thread that caused me to pull the data but for those that were wondering on somewhat similar comps to Mike Evans, here are all the guys that had 3+ 1000 yard seasons prior to age 27 and then failed to reach 75 receptions or 900 yards in either their age 27 or 28 season.
Randy Moss
Donald Driver
Santana Moss
Plaxico Burress
Dwayne Bowe
Dez Bryant
Darrell Jackson
Stevie Johnson
Mike Wallace
AJ Green
In that case we were talking about MT so I left in the guys who had injuries that caused them to miss a large portion of the year. In this case since we're talking about Evans who hasn't missed time I put a minimum games played limiter on (it only eliminated VJax, who had a season ending injury in week 5 of his age 27 season).
Obviously many of these guys at their peak weren't as good as Evans at his but of the 10 guys, 9 of them still saw their value fall off precipitously from the "low" level it was at during their down season.
Maybe Evans is more Moss and less Dez/AJG/Plaxico, but I think these guys bounce back less often that people realize.
I appreciate the effort on the research, but still not buying the narrative. I agree his value will more than likely drop from here out, but doesnt mean his production will. You could easily select a dozen "comps" that would show he's about to enter his prime.
As you've said, most of the guys on your list were nowhere near Evans talent. The fact of it is, he's had 6 straight 1k seasons (only he and Moss) and even his 2020 season will likely be darn close to a 7th despite an entirely new offense and playing through an injury for a few weeks.
I'd gladly sell him and get ahead of the curve for proper valuation, but I'll gladly scoop up shares from those willing to sell him for 2nds and Fulghams.
Edit: also while i disagree with the comps, I notice there are 21 additional 1000 yard seasons after the age of 27 from this group. That's not bad considering a couple of these comps definitely don't belong in this talent discussion.
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:25 pm
by jcc6fd
Another horrendous drop today. He’s toast
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:08 am
by Pullo Vision
I wasn't crowning him after a couple good weeks and I'm not dumping him now that-
A- the WRs/TEs have gotten healthier
B- Wentz is stinking it up
He's still a stash, for me.
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:49 am
by CGW
Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:08 am
I wasn't crowning him after a couple good weeks and I'm not dumping him now that-
A- the WRs/TEs have gotten healthier
B- Wentz is stinking it up
He's still a stash, for me.
Agree, nothing but a stash. I had an offer for a 3rd in one league...i may regret not taking it! Would have liked to see him keep his target share, but the Eagles obviously don't view him as a top option and the offense sucks too much to support more than 1.5 options which are typically the TEs.
On a positive note, the Evans v Fulgham debate didn't move much this week with Evans on bye.
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:32 am
by Jigga94
CGW wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:49 am
Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:08 am
I wasn't crowning him after a couple good weeks and I'm not dumping him now that-
A- the WRs/TEs have gotten healthier
B- Wentz is stinking it up
He's still a stash, for me.
Agree, nothing but a stash. I had an offer for a 3rd in one league...i may regret not taking it! Would have liked to see him keep his target share, but the Eagles obviously don't view him as a top option and the offense sucks too much to support more than 1.5 options which are typically the TEs.
On a positive note, the Evans v Fulgham debate didn't move much this week with Evans on bye.
It didn't move much because they're already so far apart. And honestly, it probably moved further with Fuglys dud
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:13 pm
by mild
Can this thread just die already
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:18 pm
by SoftwoodGrampian
Is there a way to take yourself off a thread?
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:17 am
by Orenthal Shames
mild wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:13 pm
Can this thread just die already
Cut
/thread
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:25 am
by Krypto_King
T's+P's to that non-Evans guy itt
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:37 am
by jman3134
If he lands with the Lions....
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:09 pm
by Cameron Giles
Mike Evans could never
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm
by Patsfan86
One of those classic "I should have traded him 2 weeks before i did". I instead held onto him for an additional two weeks and instead of getting a good player or possibly a first i got Harrison Bryant. Lessons learned yearly in dynasty- Sell early rather than late. On another note guys like Fulgham are why i completely refuse to buy into guys like James Robinson, Jakobi Meyers etc
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm
by hockeyBjj
Crazy how someone can go from the waiver wire darling of fantasy to unemployed just like that
Makes what someone like Thielen did even more impressive.
Re: Travis Fulgham
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:12 pm
by lukkynumber13
hockeyBjj wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm
Crazy how someone can go from the waiver wire darling of fantasy to unemployed just like that
Makes what someone like Thielen did even more impressive.
For real. That literally almost NEVER happens.