Buy lows?

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:49 am

JAG_challam wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:13 pm
So let's talk about the ARI backfield some more.

I don't want to have an argumentative, lop-sided "Drake is too good a talent to get benched in favor of Edmonds" conversation, nor do I want to have a, argumentative, lop-sided "Drake is a bum and this will be Edmonds backfield soon" conversation.

But if we look at this objectively, what exactly is here? I feel like Drake is better than he's looked all year. Or at least most of us thought he was. But I also think Edmonds was better than a lot gave him credit for. But maybe not so good as to immediately take the job outright. I think we're going to see this same kind of muddy committee approach for the remainder of this year.

In the interest of a buy low/sell high kind of post (that is the thread after all lol) - I don't think ARI is going to extend/re-sign him and so I think Drake is a buy low if you can sit on him until next year - AND if you think he can go somewhere else, get better usage, and perform better than what we've seen him do so far this year. Get him now while he's at a reduced price, and stash him.

On the flip-side, I'm not convinced Edmunds can hold a bellcow role all to himself. I think there's a good possibility ARI will look for an RBBC next year, between Edmonds and either a mid-round RB from the draft or someone through FA - so I think Edmonds is a sell high right now based on the perception that he's set to inherit a backfield that I really don't think he's going to inherit.

Thoughts?
I think Edmonds is a nice COP back. Good on 3rd downs, and the occasional carry to spell a lead back. Don't think he's a volume back, or lead back, if you will. Drake is a good player, he's just not getting the same space he did last year. Losing Maxx Williams hurt some. I really don't understand the lack of usage in the passing game for Drake, he's been good in that for years.

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby JAG_challam » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:14 am

MFundercover wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:35 am
Edmonds had a nice play today, still doesnt change my mind about what I had said. I dont think either are buy lows at this point, Arizona is a backfield to avoid.

Who knows what direction they will go in the offseason, but if it were my call, I wouldn't be spending significant draft capital on a running back when they need offensive line and defense. Edmonds will probably be a part of a committee again next season, whether it's with Drake or someone else.
If you stand by what you said, and you're a believer in Drake's talent, couldn't he be a buy low for a rebuild? Or do you think it's too risky without knowing whether he'll stay or go this off-season?

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby MFundercover » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:07 am

Depends how low. I wouldn't risk anything valuable on him landing in a better situation. Smart move is to avoid unless the price is very low.
Team 1 (Main)

12 team .5ppr. 1QB 2RB 2 WR 3 Flex 1 TE

QB: Watson, Goff

RB: Sanders, A Jones, Drake, Harris, Scott, Edmonds, J Williams, R Freeman

WR: Hopkins, Adams, Evans, Metcalf, Higgins, Hardman, G Tate, K. Cole, DeSean, Reynolds, Isabella, G Ward

TE: Henry, Schultz, Allie-Cox

IR: Sutton, Njoku, St. Brown

Taxi: Cephus, C Johnson

- 2021 3rd, 5th

Team 2 (Orphan)

QB: Wentz, Cousins, Fitzpatrick, Stidham, Eason

RB: Singletary, Moss, Breida, J Williams, Bowden, Yeldon

WR: Reagor, Diontae, Campbell, G Tate, Alshon, Bourne, Ross, Erickson, Lee, Humphries, Collin Johnson, Peoples Jones

TE: Hurst, Cook, Eifert, Graham, Griffin, Hollister, Trautman

2021: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby hoos89 » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:35 pm

dmac37 wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:00 pm
Diontae Johnson- I think he will be the AB in the Pitt offense starting immediately.

Montgomery- tough test last week vs the Colts and this week vs TB. I would pounce on him after this weeks game

Henry- has not had big numbers but has been producing with Herbert and Eckler out. I see Henry's targets and value increasing

Wentz- looked like crap for a few weeks but Sunday night he showed he still has it, O-line and receiving weapons will return
Are people trying to buy low on Diontae Johnson after this week? Or does the injury and Claypool's breakout scare you off at his current price?
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Rodgers, Tannehill, Wentz
Jacobs, Ekeler, Conner, Taylor, Gaskin, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Ahmed
AJB, Moore, Aiyuk, Claypool, Slayton, MVS, Agholor, J. Gordon, James
Andrews, Herndon,
IR(3): Sutton, Michel, Love
Taxi(4): Tua, G. Davis, Bowden
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Tannehill, Tua, Bridgewater
CEH, Ito, Barkley, Ito, J. Jackson, Richard, JJ Taylor, Homer, Love, Foreman
J. Jefferson, McLaurin, Jeudy, T. Higgins, Cooks, Berrios, Byrd, Berrios, C. Johnson, T. Johnson, Foster, J. Smith, Ford, Harmon
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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mild
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Re: Buy lows?

Postby mild » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:49 am

hoos89 wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:35 pm
dmac37 wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:00 pm
Diontae Johnson- I think he will be the AB in the Pitt offense starting immediately.
Are people trying to buy low on Diontae Johnson after this week? Or does the injury and Claypool's breakout scare you off at his current price?
It's a variance play. I would certainly be enquiring with his owner to get a gut-check... for owners in leagues that are less analytically "aware" (ie. of DJ's insane seperation metrics) they may be getting nervous from this Claypool thing and could potentially give him up cheap.

I'd pounce if it was a 2nd, probably.

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby Fredator » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:39 am

I got him for a 2021 second saturday and and played him over mike williams :wall:

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby joeya2001 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:15 am

Fredator wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:39 am
I got him for a 2021 second saturday and and played him over mike williams :wall:
Shame on you for not predicting Claypool going off and Keenen Allen getting hurt!
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs

QB- Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Fitzmagic
RB- Chris Carson, Damian Harris, Le'Veon Bell Lenard Forunette, AJ Dillion, Miles Gaskin,
WR- Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley,DJ Chark, Michael Pittman,
TE- George Kittle,Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith,

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

QB Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Dwayne Haskins, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB Zeke, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift, Cohen, AJ Dillon
WR Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, D.J. Chark Tee Higgins, Marvin Jones, Paris Campbell, Golden Tate,
TE Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert, Irv Smith, OJ Howard, Logan Thomas

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby CGW » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:23 am

Id gladly buy Diontae for a 2nd. Hopefully, he won't always be hurt.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco, Walker
RB | Mixon, Singletary, Taylor, Gaskin, Wilkins, Ahmed
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, D. Johnson, Washington, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Sternberger

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Minshew, Tagovailoa
RB | Montgomery, Singletary, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, M. Brown, D. Johnson, Slayton, Aiyuk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Mooney
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Sample

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Smith, Flacco
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Wilkins
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith, Zaccheus
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, L. Thomas

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby Vcize » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:14 pm

mild wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:49 am
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:35 pm
dmac37 wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:00 pm
Diontae Johnson- I think he will be the AB in the Pitt offense starting immediately.
Are people trying to buy low on Diontae Johnson after this week? Or does the injury and Claypool's breakout scare you off at his current price?
It's a variance play. I would certainly be enquiring with his owner to get a gut-check... for owners in leagues that are less analytically "aware" (ie. of DJ's insane seperation metrics) they may be getting nervous from this Claypool thing and could potentially give him up cheap.

I'd pounce if it was a 2nd, probably.
May be slightly off-topic here and I like DJ but it's worth noting there is probably no statistic in any sport that is less predictive of success than the separation statistic for WRs in football. In fact if anything it's completely inversely proportional to success. Generally the bottom of this list of guys in this stat includes mostly pro bowlers and and the top includes a bunch of nobodies that people wouldn't often roster much less start in fantasy.

2019 for instance:
5 worst yds separation: Golladay, M Williams, Evans, Ratley, Diggs
5 best yds separation: Swaim, Akins, Hardman, Amendola, O'Shaugnessy
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Re: Buy lows?

Postby hoos89 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:48 pm

Is separation typically given on a per target or per route basis? If the former, then the obvious flaw is that a high separation receiver is essentially only targeted if they're *wide* open. If the latter, there's still the confounding factor of quality of coverage: it may be that a high separation receiver is getting that open because they're not a defensive priority.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Rodgers, Tannehill, Wentz
Jacobs, Ekeler, Conner, Taylor, Gaskin, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Ahmed
AJB, Moore, Aiyuk, Claypool, Slayton, MVS, Agholor, J. Gordon, James
Andrews, Herndon,
IR(3): Sutton, Michel, Love
Taxi(4): Tua, G. Davis, Bowden
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Tannehill, Tua, Bridgewater
CEH, Ito, Barkley, Ito, J. Jackson, Richard, JJ Taylor, Homer, Love, Foreman
J. Jefferson, McLaurin, Jeudy, T. Higgins, Cooks, Berrios, Byrd, Berrios, C. Johnson, T. Johnson, Foster, J. Smith, Ford, Harmon
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby mild » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:15 pm

Vcize wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:14 pm
May be slightly off-topic here and I like DJ but it's worth noting there is probably no statistic in any sport that is less predictive of success than the separation statistic for WRs in football. In fact if anything it's completely inversely proportional to success. Generally the bottom of this list of guys in this stat includes mostly pro bowlers and and the top includes a bunch of nobodies that people wouldn't often roster much less start in fantasy.

2019 for instance:
5 worst yds separation: Golladay, M Williams, Evans, Ratley, Diggs
5 best yds separation: Swaim, Akins, Hardman, Amendola, O'Shaugnessy
That's a more than fair reply, and I don't altogether disagree - it's a flawed stat, and no replacement for an actual eye-test. My eye test on Diontae tells me he's getting seperation where it counts, though - the guy is very shifty; it's not just an empty stat for him.

If you'd allow me to expand slightly on Diontae himself though - he also owned a +30% target share through the first two weeks before he got banged up. Only other WR in the league with that kind of volume in the same time span was Adam Theilan.

Again, we're talking about why we'd buy Diontae right now as opposed to Claypool, who looks like the hottest name to own in PIT this week. A vote for DJ is basically that he's a. a good receiver and b. still going to command a large target share in PIT.

It could be dicey, but that's why he's possibly a buy low.

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:30 pm

Tannehill seems to still be undervalued.
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26 man rosters - full point ppr
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QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Buy lows?

Postby dark_knite03 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:54 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:30 pm
Tannehill seems to still be undervalued.
What would you pay for him? It appears he's here to stay in Tennessee.
Est '17 12 Team 1PPR 4-Pass 6-Rush/Recieve TD
Start QB RB RB WR WR TE Flex K DL LB DB
Ryan, Minshew, D.Carr
JT, Dobbins, Akers,Singletary,Penny
Harris, Dillon,GustheBus, Royce
Nuk,DJM,AJB, Diggs, Juedy, Deebo, C.Davis,
Mims, Claypool, Edwards, DPJ
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Henry, Chubb, Sanders, Gordon, Jrob, Gallman, Moss, Davis, Ballage
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Re: Buy lows?

Postby Vcize » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:20 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:48 pm
Is separation typically given on a per target or per route basis? If the former, then the obvious flaw is that a high separation receiver is essentially only targeted if they're *wide* open. If the latter, there's still the confounding factor of quality of coverage: it may be that a high separation receiver is getting that open because they're not a defensive priority.
Both stats exist. The per target one is the more tracked one on reliable sites and that's the one Diontae grades really well in. Like you said there is an obvious flaw that better receivers are more likely to draw targets when they're not wide open which drives their separation stat down (IE Russ is more likely to still throw the ball to Metcalf when he's pretty well covered, whereas no QB is throwing the ball to Cole Beasley unless he's wide open).

Surprisingly though the separation per route run is nearly as poor a predictor as the one that calculates it per target.
mild wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:15 pm
Vcize wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:14 pm
May be slightly off-topic here and I like DJ but it's worth noting there is probably no statistic in any sport that is less predictive of success than the separation statistic for WRs in football. In fact if anything it's completely inversely proportional to success. Generally the bottom of this list of guys in this stat includes mostly pro bowlers and and the top includes a bunch of nobodies that people wouldn't often roster much less start in fantasy.

2019 for instance:
5 worst yds separation: Golladay, M Williams, Evans, Ratley, Diggs
5 best yds separation: Swaim, Akins, Hardman, Amendola, O'Shaugnessy
That's a more than fair reply, and I don't altogether disagree - it's a flawed stat, and no replacement for an actual eye-test. My eye test on Diontae tells me he's getting seperation where it counts, though - the guy is very shifty; it's not just an empty stat for him.

If you'd allow me to expand slightly on Diontae himself though - he also owned a +30% target share through the first two weeks before he got banged up. Only other WR in the league with that kind of volume in the same time span was Adam Theilan.

Again, we're talking about why we'd buy Diontae right now as opposed to Claypool, who looks like the hottest name to own in PIT this week. A vote for DJ is basically that he's a. a good receiver and b. still going to command a large target share in PIT.

It could be dicey, but that's why he's possibly a buy low.
Yeah like I said I actually agree with you on Johnson, it just always kind of triggers a response out of me when I see the separation stat referenced because it is such a poor predictor (and it seems to come up for some player every year). I like Diontae for reasons that have nothing to do with that stat.
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Re: Buy lows?

Postby Blueboy » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:35 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:14 pm
I'd say Isabella. You can get him for a song. They just missed on a big play last week. He had a few TD's the week before, on short routes. He's getting more routes and snaps. Fitz is washed. Izzy should be more involved going forward.
I'll echo this.

12-team SF, PPR, IDP
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
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RB: J. Taylor, CEH, Ingram, Dillon, Penny, Henderson
WR: Metcalf, Woods, AJG, Kirk, Hardman, Isabella, Campbell, Hamler, JJAW
TE: Andrews, Njoku, Asiasi, Moreau, Trautman

DL: J. Bosa, JJ Watt, J. Allen, Ferrell, Epinesa, Houston
LB: T. Edmunds, Kendricks, Mosley, T. Lewis, A. Williamson
DB: J. Adams, K. Neal, Amos, McDougald, Thornhill


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