What’s wrong with Evan Engram?

[Prison_Mike]

I don’t get to watch many NYG games

I’ve always been interested in Engram because of his early production, youth and great athleticism for the position.

The targets are there, he’s healthy (for now), why has he been so bad?

[Cameron Giles]

Daniel Jones is struggling and the Giants are bad.

[mild]

He's also apparently forgotten how to catch the football.

It's been rough. Very. Rough.

[Prison_Mike]

Daniel Jones is struggling and the Giants are bad.

I guess I wasn’t considering the quality of his many targets lol

[Shoreline Steamers]

Daniel Jones is struggling and the Giants are bad.

Have to agree with this. Engram isn't the problem, it's his teammates and coaching. The Giants are simply a truly awful football team, and I don't think there's much Engram can do in this situation. Next year might be better when Barkley returns, but 2020 isn't going to be pretty.

[Vcize]

He's also apparently forgotten how to catch the football.

It's been rough. Very. Rough.

Forgotten? His per target performance has always been abyssmal. He just got flooded with targets early in his career due to circumstance and people only look at fantasy points.

He may end up being a decent low TE1 for his career, but as I argued at the time every elite TE in the last few decades, even the ones with bad QBs early in their career, had elite per target efficiency within their first 2 years in the NFL. Engram's has been horrible for 4 years now.

[jenkins.math]

He's also apparently forgotten how to catch the football.

It's been rough. Very. Rough.

Forgotten? His per target performance has always been abyssmal. He just got flooded with targets early in his career due to circumstance and people only look at fantasy points.

He may end up being a decent low TE1 for his career, but as I argued at the time every elite TE in the last few decades, even the ones with bad QBs early in their career, had elite per target efficiency within their first 2 years in the NFL. Engram's has been horrible for 4 years now.

He was literally the only pass catcher left standing when he has put up numbers. It's been purely volume based for him when he has been decent for fantasy.

[Orenthal Shames]

Fragility aside, he's a tweener TE, basically a large WR. That's how he was used in 2017 successfully. He is too small to play the traditional position, yet the Giants are trying to use him to block. It's a mess.

[dynastyninja]

He's also apparently forgotten how to catch the football.

It's been rough. Very. Rough.

Forgotten? His per target performance has always been abyssmal. He just got flooded with targets early in his career due to circumstance and people only look at fantasy points.

He may end up being a decent low TE1 for his career, but as I argued at the time every elite TE in the last few decades, even the ones with bad QBs early in their career, had elite per target efficiency within their first 2 years in the NFL. Engram's has been horrible for 4 years now.

I'm interested in the per target efficiency. Hadn't really looked at that for TEs before. Is it really that predictive?

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

Those 2017 rookie TEs... Engram, Howard, Njoku, Everett (for some)...

But then, Kittle!

[OhCruelestRanter]

Those 2017 rookie TEs... Engram, Howard, Njoku, Everett (for some)...

But then, Kittle!

Don’t forget Jonnu (pretty good!) and Shaheen (really bad!).

I remember Shaheen had some genuine hype as a high upside-low floor prospect.

[Vcize]

He's also apparently forgotten how to catch the football.

It's been rough. Very. Rough.

Forgotten? His per target performance has always been abyssmal. He just got flooded with targets early in his career due to circumstance and people only look at fantasy points.

He may end up being a decent low TE1 for his career, but as I argued at the time every elite TE in the last few decades, even the ones with bad QBs early in their career, had elite per target efficiency within their first 2 years in the NFL. Engram's has been horrible for 4 years now.

I'm interested in the per target efficiency. Hadn't really looked at that for TEs before. Is it really that predictive?

I wouldn't say it's predictive (Henry and Howard were by far the standouts in per target efficiency, and they're not exactly the next Kelce and Gates now) so much as it is a baseline requirement for potentially elite guys. I ended up with way too many OJH shares thinking it could be used as a predictor, though to be fair it did lead me to some Kittle and Henry shares as well.

I think it's better used as a way to filter out guys that people are projecting as one of the next elite TEs, as players without elite efficiency within their first year or two are extremely unlikely to turn into that even if their volume metrics fool fantasy owners.

I can't find the post where I put all the numbers down on the previously elite TEs (it may have been on a different forum). Here are some of the posts I made here where a few of those numbers are referenced though.

Along similar lines, are we as a community massively overrating Evan Engram right now? I don't necessarily mean in terms of his spot in the rankings (the scarcity of elite options almost dictates we have to put him there), but rather in regards to the value gap between him and other guys that are ranked similarly like Henry, Njoku, etc.

The reason I ask is that when we look beyond Engram's volume stats last year, his efficiency was really pretty horrific for a TE. 55% catch rate and 6.25 YPT are both really bad and don't measure up to what other elite TE options were doing as young players. For instance Gronk as a rookie was 71% catch and 9.25 YPT and those numbers only went up from there. Kelce in his first year playing (2nd year on the roster) was 77% catch and 9.9 YPT. Ertz was a little closer, at 63% catch and 8.2 YPT as a rookie, but still well ahead of Engram.

Engram's efficiency numbers are more inline with other overhyped flops like Ebron (53% catch, 5.27 YPT). He just had a lot more volume.

Now getting that volume is not nothing, and the lack of other options that led to that volume likely didn't help the efficiency, but I think the thoughts that he had a 1st year similar to guys like Gronk or Kelce or Ertz has some pretty large gaps in it. Maybe those lack of options means we give it a pass but at that point, why wouldn't he have value the same as someone like Njoku (who also wasn't ver efficient) or Howard instead of way above it?

Yep. Based on efficiency I am a big buyer on Howard, Kittle, and HH as the next guard of elite TEs once the current top guys age out.

Njoku and Engram are sells to me.

HH >>> Engram long-term. I don't care about "rankings" because I think they're wrong on this one, and people are really overlooking how elite TEs come about.

Engram was nothing more than high volume trash last year. If you look at all the top TEs they pretty much all were efficient with their targets within their first couple years. Kelce, Ertz, Gronk, Gates, Witten, Graham, Kittle, and on and on and on. There just aren't many guys with Engram's horrid efficiency that end up becoming top TEs. Sure they might one day develop into a solid Kyle Rudolph type, but in general if they're going to be a top TE they are looking like it by now.

Outside of Ertz/Kelce, the most efficient TEs of the last two years are Kittle, Howard, and Henry. Those are the guys I am buying as the next group of stud TEs.

Kelce, Ertz, Gates, Witten, Graham, Gronk, Gonzo. All of the really great fantasy TEs were very efficient prior to their breakout and all had at least a top 6 ppg fantasy finish within their first 2 years.

OJH fits both of those criteria.

On the flipside no TE with efficiency anywhere near as poor as Engram's through 2 years has become a great fantasy TE. That's not to say they don't turn into solid players, but not that Uber fantasy type player.

Obviously circumstance hasn't helped Engram but he's hardly alone there. Jason Witten as a rookie played with Quincy Carter as his QB and still put up pretty good efficiency even as a guy who was seen as raw.

No way I am paying top 20-25 prices for a guy that was basically Eric Ebron with lots of volume.

Engrams's efficiency metrics were a lot closer to a rookie Ebron than they were to a rookie Gronk or Kelce, which is the prices we are talking about here.

Earning volume as a rookie TE certainly isn't nothing so I don't mean to disparage that, but he still has to make a massive leap ability wise to enter that kind of territory and at those prices it seems like building that big leap into his value.

Just to illustrate the difference, Engram's 64-722-6 last year came on the same number of targets Gronk had in his 2nd year when he put up 90-1327-17.

Obviously a Brady target and an Eli target aren't equal but that is beyond a massive disparity. I think the chances are more than fair that we've already seen Engram's career high in targets.

[OhCruelestRanter]

He's also apparently forgotten how to catch the football.

It's been rough. Very. Rough.

Forgotten? His per target performance has always been abyssmal. He just got flooded with targets early in his career due to circumstance and people only look at fantasy points.

He may end up being a decent low TE1 for his career, but as I argued at the time every elite TE in the last few decades, even the ones with bad QBs early in their career, had elite per target efficiency within their first 2 years in the NFL. Engram's has been horrible for 4 years now.

He was literally the only pass catcher left standing when he has put up numbers. It's been purely volume based for him when he has been decent for fantasy.

Also- this. He looked good (for a rookie) in 2017 with Beckham hurt, Brandon Marshall hurt, Sterling Shepard missing some time as well. They went 3-13 and threw the ball 600 times. All of this meant Engram accrued 115 targets. Since 1992 (when targets became a stat) the only other rookie TE with more than 100 was Jeremy Shockey. Of the 131 times a TE has ever recorded 100+ targets, his 6.28 YPT was 12th worst, and his 55.7% catch percentage was 10th worst. He was also an old, 23 year old rookie.

He actually looked better in 2018, but he got hurt, has never been able to stay healthy, and he’s been steadily getting worse ever since. I’m not sure what the answer is. A better QB and a team that would utilize him exclusively as a slot receiver would help. Maybe this is his buy-low window.

[Patsfan86]

I move to strike any TE conversations from this board They all suck except Kittle Kelce and Andrews. Engram is no different, end of discussion.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I move to strike any TE conversations from this board They all suck except Kittle Kelce and Andrews. Engram is no different, end of discussion.

Wait Fant might be good. Hockenson and Higbee too.