What changed with air raid QBs

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Bronco Billy
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What changed with air raid QBs

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:33 pm

Before Mahomes, QBs who played in air raid offenses in college didn’t have any success in the NFL. You could rule them out as future potential FF QBs no matter where they went in the NFL draft.

Mahomes could have been written off as a one-off with the wild success he had, but now we’ve got Minshew experiencing some success as well. Suddenly air raid QBs aren’t just ****-canned by FF owners because of the college offense they ran.

So the question is, what happened in air raid offenses that now QBs are capable of sustaining NFL success where they hadn’t previously? The fundamentals of the offenses seem to be unchanged, and those seemed to preclude proper read training for QBs, as well as learning to throw into windows and move through progressions, not to mention taking snaps under center. That lack of training for their college years used to make the jump to the NFL way too difficult for those guys.

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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby Pac_Eddy » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:41 pm

Nothing changed. The sample size was too small to make good judgements.
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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby PR0v3 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:43 pm

College was ahead of the curve, from an offensive scheme perspective. College has a much wider talent gap than the NFL, so teams had to get creative with their schemes/playcalling. Podunk U ain't gonna out athlete Alabama, so they had to make better plays. Now, everyone has realized those schemes are better, so the big schools with the top talent started running them, too, and now the NFL is getting in on it. Players aren't coming into the league and being forced to adapt to antiquated systems, they're just doing what they've always done.
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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby Mjvb5 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:45 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:43 pm
College was ahead of the curve, from an offensive scheme perspective. College has a much wider talent gap than the NFL, so teams had to get creative with their schemes/playcalling. Podunk U ain't gonna out athlete Alabama, so they had to make better plays. Now, everyone has realized those schemes are better, so the big schools with the top talent started running them, too, and now the NFL is getting in on it. Players aren't coming into the league and being forced to adapt to antiquated systems, they're just doing what they've always done.
This is a big part of it. While sure we don't have any dedicated air raid coaches outside of KK, the big part about his nfl transition that everyone left out was that all nfl teams are already incorporating air raid elements into there offense.

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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby Vcize » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:07 pm

Minshew was a 6th round pick that only got an opportunity due to injury.

Mahomes is really the only exception as a guy who was given a real chance and I think the biggest part of that is that he had NFL quality measurables. Typically the air raid offenses aren't really run by bigtime programs where guys with NFL arm talent are looking to play, so they end up with guys that don't really have the measurables or pedigree that the NFL is interested in.

If Foles hadn't gotten hurt and had played decently well for the Jags we'd probably be including Minshew in the long list of air raid guys that fizzled because he never got on the field. And likewise if some of the other guys had lucked into opportunity like Minshew did we have no idea if they would have potentially made the most of it as well.

Half of NFL success is opportunity, and if you're not an early round pick that opportunity often comes down to luck.
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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby Krypto_King » Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:05 pm

coaches got smarter, rules got more lenient, analytics, etc

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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:31 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:43 pm
College was ahead of the curve, from an offensive scheme perspective. College has a much wider talent gap than the NFL, so teams had to get creative with their schemes/playcalling. Podunk U ain't gonna out athlete Alabama, so they had to make better plays. Now, everyone has realized those schemes are better, so the big schools with the top talent started running them, too, and now the NFL is getting in on it. Players aren't coming into the league and being forced to adapt to antiquated systems, they're just doing what they've always done.
The NFL rule changes made it easier, too. College maximized talent difference between programs. The NFL does, to lesser degree. The rule changes are the biggest thing for me. QB's can't be hit anymore, nor can receivers, in any real fashion. It puts D's at a disadvantage and allows offences that would have been hard pressed to make it based on the old rules. The NFL realized offense sells seats and viewers. That's why the Raiders were never going to lose the Mack trade. Defensive ends getting paid 24 million a year is a terrible investment at the price of 2 firsts on top of it. The schemes that you are claiming are ahead of the curve would not have worked under the old NFL rules. If they ran these systems in the 80's they would not have been nearly as successful. It's a much more entertaining brand of football these days, but it's not a fun job to be a defender, you can't really do your job properly, the game is tilted.

Some of the penalties called on defences are a disgrace to real football, but they will always side on the the offense, and more points. The NFL doesn't care about defenders, Defence doesn't sell. Overall, it makes for a better game, but it's just pathetic, in some circumstances. There are some egregiously poor DPI calls, and some of the Personal Fouls are awful, too. I always thought the Personal Foul calls should be reviewable, not PI, though. Some are just so bad, and those changed games and still do more than PI. Just because of one blown call in the NFC Championship game, we had the entire PI realm under review, last year.

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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:44 am

Goff came from an air raid offense and he was taken #1 overall before anyone even knew mahomnes existed.

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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:28 am

Krypto_King wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:05 pm
coaches got smarter, rules got more lenient, analytics, etc
💯
QBs can study more film than ever before, more 7 on 7 reps. Hell, kids playing now Madden can read defenses, understand hot routes, etc. The availability of resources is exponentially greater now.
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Re: What changed with air raid QBs

Postby I-ROK » Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:18 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:33 pm
Before Mahomes, QBs who played in air raid offenses in college didn’t have any success in the NFL.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/spor ... urray.html


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