Are WRs a dime a dozen?

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Bronco Billy
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Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby Bronco Billy » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:09 am

I pulled this out of another thread in talk about a trade in a 2QB league (apologies to Jigga94):
Jigga94 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:32 am WR are a dime a dozen these days.
and that kind of piqued my curiosity. So using 1 ppr and a 12 team start 3 WR with a flex as a baseline I thought I’d crank some statistics, because that statement just seemed too simplistic. Given the baseline parameters, I got a sample size of the top 60 players (league has minimum 36 starting WRs plus another say 6 for flex, then adding the other 18 for bye week/injury substitutions) as a meaningful group. Running the group for this year’s results so far and then last year’s group - which yielded remarkably similar results with a couple of exceptions - it turns out that after the top 6 players that the next 44 guys in each group were within a standard deviation of each other. Even the last guys on the list were within 1 FF pt of being in that 44 player grouping.

So much to my surprise, the statement that WRs are a dime a dozen is what I would say to be extremely accurate. If you’re using any WRs outside the top 6 as bargaining chips to move other players, those guys are pretty replaceable. Don’t know if this has any value to most of you, but thought I’d share for the sake of consideration and discussion.

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:16 am

Great post. I've been saying the same thing this offseason. There are about 50 wr2s. Heh. Not really but I agree with you.

I think I'd want to try really hard to make sure my wrs had alot of upside since they are all so close. I don't want the Landry's of the world since I don't believe he has upside. There are several guys that will probably be undervalued per grouping that could have upside if tied to the right QB. Miami, Cincy, LAC wr's are all guys I'd want if they were grouped together in tiers with others like Landry.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby jomaed » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:21 am

Love this post. Thanks for sharing.

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby hoos89 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:21 am

I'm not sure I follow this. Are you using total points or PPG? Accounting for injuries?

Last fantasy season (weeks 1-16), WR7 in PPR (ARob) scored 238.6 points (15.9 PPG). WR50 (James Washington) scored 133.5 points (9.5 PPG). Even if you go off PPG (which I'm not sure is valid given that e.g. Antonio Brown gets included in the list in spite of playing 1 game last season), WR7 scored 16.8 PPG and WR50 scored 11.0 PPG. That's a difference of 79% or 53%....neither of which is anywhere near a trivial difference. If a standard deviation is that big then maybe that's actually evidence that WRs are not a dime a dozen?
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby CGW » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:26 am

hoos89 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:21 am I'm not sure I follow this. Are you using total points or PPG? Accounting for injuries?

Last fantasy season (weeks 1-16), WR7 in PPR (ARob) scored 238.6 points (15.9 PPG). WR50 (James Washington) scored 133.5 points (9.5 PPG). Even if you go off PPG (which I'm not sure is valid given that e.g. Antonio Brown gets included in the list in spite of playing 1 game last season), WR7 scored 16.8 PPG and WR50 scored 11.0 PPG. That's a difference of 79% or 53%....neither of which is anywhere near a trivial difference. If a standard deviation is that big then maybe that's actually evidence that WRs are not a dime a dozen?
Good point. I'm also curious to the assumptions made. If you did use straight PPG, did you also use a minimum threshold. Maybe something like 10 games minimum or 50 receptions?

But good info, nice to see the disparity or lack thereof between top end and bottom end wr2s. The value of RBs currently is the massive disparity between the top and bottom.

I think another thing to look at would be consistency year to year. Lots of WR hit wr2 numbers once then fall of the face of the earth. I like having a core of WR that I can count on every year. I'm curious how many of your top 60 are repeat "hits".
Last edited by CGW on Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Burrow
RB |
WR | Puka, Olave, Smith, Flowers, Dotson, Addison
TE | Pitts, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1.01, 1.02, 4.01, 5.01
2025
| 1stx3, 3rdx3

10 Team | SF | PPR | 2023 Champ
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Allen, Stroud, Young
RB | K Williams, White, Monty, Herbert, Chandler
WR | Lamb, AJB, Puka, Waddle, Mooney, J. Williams, Watson, Davis
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1.04, 3.10

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, K Williams, Singletary, Henry, A Jones, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Puka, Flowers, Downs,
TE | Hockenson, Likely, Otton

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:27 am

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:16 amI'd want to try really hard to make sure my wrs had alot of upside since they are all so close. I don't want the Landry's of the world since I don't believe he has upside.
This is what I'd like to highlight. You want upside guys. The ones who could blow up & win games or go an a huge run. The Jarvis Landry type of production of the fantasy world is cheap.
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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby nathanq42 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:29 am

My thing is that while WRs can put up numbers consistently season to season, on a week to week basis it is sooooo much more variable, I think you would see a high standard deviation as well as a more normally distributed curve
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:00 pm

Hahaha I saw the thread title and was like hey, I just said that. I stand by it though, but my point was moreso after those top guys, it's all a mixed bag. Any given week a WR2 or 3 on a team could outscore the 1. I think Dallas is a fairly good example. Any given week it could be Lamb or Gallup even though Cooper is the "most valuable"

Thanks for crunching those numbers though!
I mean how confident are you in starting Lockett vs Woods vs Boys vs Gallup? All these guys are arguably fantasy WR3s but where does it stop? Hollywood, Jefferson, Slayton, Parker, Fuller.... All these guys have various dynasty values based on age and situation, etc. But production is all very very close. I used to love building around WR because they maintained value, but they're devalued now. Owners devalue them because there's a lot of replaceable talent out there due to NFL passing offenses becoming more talented. Owners also devalue guys like Julio at 28 because that's 1 year away from 29 which is a year away from 30.

My advice, use them in trades to upgrade other positions, buy the cheaper option for production and stash any waiver guys you can on ascending offenses. I think Gabriel Davis is a recent example.

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby Ice » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:04 pm

Maybe they are a dime a dozen to those that know almost nothing about fantasy football. One can argue consistency issues but the better players in this game also seek out WR's that are consistent. Obviously, there are more WR's due to how the game is played but only 25 WR's average 14 points or more per game compared to 19 RB's.

To put points in perspective in competitive leagues. I had a several bad beats this week.

177.5 to 177.15
129.8 to 128.9
154.0 to 150.65

Anyone who really thinks they are a dime a dozen simply doesn't know what they are talking about IMO.

I get selling RB's high but don't believe everything you read :biggrin:
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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby gogobradyarm » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:09 pm

I'm gonna make a qualitative argument in that, there are better QB's today, more lenient offensive rules, and better WR's than ever before. That said, I think this means there is a much wider net of WR2's. The 2019 and 2020 classes were littered with WR talent, and 2021 doesn't seem any different. Maybe it's the transition being easier than ever before as well, because rookie's or sophomores are hitting much more than the old 3rd breakout rule of past.

I'm not sure if that lends to a discussion on roster construction, so maybe I shouldn't open that can of worms...
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:12 pm

hoos89 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:21 am I'm not sure I follow this. Are you using total points or PPG? Accounting for injuries?

Last fantasy season (weeks 1-16), WR7 in PPR (ARob) scored 238.6 points (15.9 PPG). WR50 (James Washington) scored 133.5 points (9.5 PPG). Even if you go off PPG (which I'm not sure is valid given that e.g. Antonio Brown gets included in the list in spite of playing 1 game last season), WR7 scored 16.8 PPG and WR50 scored 11.0 PPG. That's a difference of 79% or 53%....neither of which is anywhere near a trivial difference. If a standard deviation is that big then maybe that's actually evidence that WRs are not a dime a dozen?
What's the difference between WR18 and WR50 though? I'm not saying ALL WR are a dime a dozen, but outside the top 12 or so, it seems like a week to week game.

Also, how much do you have to pay to acquire WR7 vs WR18 vs WR50? If trading WR7 for WR50 also nets me a huge upgrade at QB and another RB piece, that 6 ppg difference evaporates quickly

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby Space Cowboy » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:19 pm

They're over valued, that's for sure. Again depends on format but I have no problem having a RB2 on my bench while I start three WR3. Accumulate talent, not just positions of need.

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby Ice » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:21 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:12 pm
hoos89 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:21 am I'm not sure I follow this. Are you using total points or PPG? Accounting for injuries?

Last fantasy season (weeks 1-16), WR7 in PPR (ARob) scored 238.6 points (15.9 PPG). WR50 (James Washington) scored 133.5 points (9.5 PPG). Even if you go off PPG (which I'm not sure is valid given that e.g. Antonio Brown gets included in the list in spite of playing 1 game last season), WR7 scored 16.8 PPG and WR50 scored 11.0 PPG. That's a difference of 79% or 53%....neither of which is anywhere near a trivial difference. If a standard deviation is that big then maybe that's actually evidence that WRs are not a dime a dozen?
What's the difference between WR18 and WR50 though? I'm not saying ALL WR are a dime a dozen, but outside the top 12 or so, it seems like a week to week game.

Also, how much do you have to pay to acquire WR7 vs WR18 vs WR50? If trading WR7 for WR50 also nets me a huge upgrade at QB and another RB piece, that 6 ppg difference evaporates quickly
So you are trying to have a volume argument.

Basic math would show the drop off at RB is about 8 points vs 6 point drop or so for WR's from 18 to 50.

Seems to be a weak argument as roster construction is what is actually key. Get a bunch of WR2 and 3's and you're as dead if you have a bunch a RB2's and 3's.
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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:29 pm

WR is by far the easiest position to fill at the moment. From the "Is WR ridiculously deep now?" thread, some interesting numbers from my PPR league:
-Eleven receivers scored 15 PPG in 2019
-Low-end WR3s were only ~2 PPG behind low-end WR1s
-56 receivers scored 10+ PPG compared to 51 in 2018 and 45 in 2017

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Re: Are WRs a dime a dozen?

Postby jenkins.math » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:36 pm

Ice wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:21 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:12 pm
hoos89 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:21 am I'm not sure I follow this. Are you using total points or PPG? Accounting for injuries?

Last fantasy season (weeks 1-16), WR7 in PPR (ARob) scored 238.6 points (15.9 PPG). WR50 (James Washington) scored 133.5 points (9.5 PPG). Even if you go off PPG (which I'm not sure is valid given that e.g. Antonio Brown gets included in the list in spite of playing 1 game last season), WR7 scored 16.8 PPG and WR50 scored 11.0 PPG. That's a difference of 79% or 53%....neither of which is anywhere near a trivial difference. If a standard deviation is that big then maybe that's actually evidence that WRs are not a dime a dozen?
What's the difference between WR18 and WR50 though? I'm not saying ALL WR are a dime a dozen, but outside the top 12 or so, it seems like a week to week game.

Also, how much do you have to pay to acquire WR7 vs WR18 vs WR50? If trading WR7 for WR50 also nets me a huge upgrade at QB and another RB piece, that 6 ppg difference evaporates quickly
So you are trying to have a volume argument.

Basic math would show the drop off at RB is about 8 points vs 6 point drop or so for WR's from 18 to 50.

Seems to be a weak argument as roster construction is what is actually key. Get a bunch of WR2 and 3's and you're as dead if you have a bunch a RB2's and 3's.
I believe he was saying he would rather upgrade RB and roll out some WR3's than have an elite WR and use RB3's. Obviously you can't have an entire roster of 2's and 3's and expect to be successful.

Last year in PPR:
the RB5 + WR30 averaged a combined 33.1 PPG.
the WR5 + RB30 averaged a combined 28.6 PPG.


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