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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:33 am
by FantasyFreak
Dibbles wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:27 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:18 am
Everyone said the same about Juju...
Godwins PPR points in his 3 games played this season are 14, 17 and 10. He’s gone from #2 overall WR for the entire 2019 year to being injured and still delivering WR 1/2 numbers in the few games he has played with a new and supposedly more detrimental QB/system. What about his performance this season (outside of injury) makes you think he is just a “really good” WR? His performance over the past 1-2 years is not even in the same ballpark as JuJu - JuJu fell off the planet when Ben bailed out and hasn’t returned with Ben’s resurrection but Godwin is still putting up numbers when healthy.
Not really true. Godwin hasn't scored a WR1 week at all in my leagues, to my knowledge. Juju had a good start to the year. He's fighting through an injury right now. Same as Godwin. He's been hurt basically all year. Missing practice every week, and on the injury report. Juju is a younger version of Cooper Kupp. A great slot guy, number 2. I think Godwin can be a bit more, due to his athleticism. Both are FA's next year. You're assessment of Juju is inaccurate. He was hurt most of the year last year, and this year. If you want to bring up the injury prone tag, fine, but you aren't acknowledging the fact Juju hasn't been playing at 100 percent for most of last year and this year.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:41 am
by Dibbles
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:33 am
Dibbles wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:27 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:18 am
Everyone said the same about Juju...
Godwins PPR points in his 3 games played this season are 14, 17 and 10. He’s gone from #2 overall WR for the entire 2019 year to being injured and still delivering WR 1/2 numbers in the few games he has played with a new and supposedly more detrimental QB/system. What about his performance this season (outside of injury) makes you think he is just a “really good” WR? His performance over the past 1-2 years is not even in the same ballpark as JuJu - JuJu fell off the planet when Ben bailed out and hasn’t returned with Ben’s resurrection but Godwin is still putting up numbers when healthy.
Not really true. Juju had a good start to the year. He's fighting through an injury right now. Same as Godwin. He's been hurt basically all year. Missing practice every week, and on the injury report. Juju is a younger version of Cooper Kupp. A great slot guy, number 2. I think Godwin can be a bit more, due to his athleticism. Both are FA's next year. You're assessment of Juju is inaccurate. He was hurt most of the year last year, and this year. If you want to bring up the injury prone tag, fine, but you aren't acknowledging the fact Juju hasn't been playing at 100 percent for most of last year and this year.
Not my intent whatsoever to get into yet another JuJu discussion. Would you take Godwin or JuJu straight up today? To each his own. My only point is (1) Godwin has proven himself to be a stud, and (2) he’s currently cheaper than “normal” with current situation in TB. I thought that was the gist of this thread.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:45 am
by FantasyFreak
Dibbles wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:41 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:33 am
Dibbles wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:27 am


Godwins PPR points in his 3 games played this season are 14, 17 and 10. He’s gone from #2 overall WR for the entire 2019 year to being injured and still delivering WR 1/2 numbers in the few games he has played with a new and supposedly more detrimental QB/system. What about his performance this season (outside of injury) makes you think he is just a “really good” WR? His performance over the past 1-2 years is not even in the same ballpark as JuJu - JuJu fell off the planet when Ben bailed out and hasn’t returned with Ben’s resurrection but Godwin is still putting up numbers when healthy.
Not really true. Juju had a good start to the year. He's fighting through an injury right now. Same as Godwin. He's been hurt basically all year. Missing practice every week, and on the injury report. Juju is a younger version of Cooper Kupp. A great slot guy, number 2. I think Godwin can be a bit more, due to his athleticism. Both are FA's next year. You're assessment of Juju is inaccurate. He was hurt most of the year last year, and this year. If you want to bring up the injury prone tag, fine, but you aren't acknowledging the fact Juju hasn't been playing at 100 percent for most of last year and this year.
Not my intent whatsoever to get into yet another JuJu discussion. Would you take Godwin or JuJu straight up today? To each his own. My only point is (1) Godwin has proven himself to be a stud, and (2) he’s currently cheaper than “normal” with current situation in TB. I thought that was the gist of this thread.
I already stated the Godwin vs Juju thing. I prefer Godwin. This is a buy low/sell high thread, and I was pointing out the inaccuracies. Juju has proven to be a "stud" in the same capacity Godwin has. I'd slightly prefer Godwin, and has dealt with injuries, himself. Juju is still putting up numbers, when healthy. He hasn't been healthy, that's the thing. I understand. I don't see Juju as a "stud", I see him as a top end WR2. I don't see Godwin as a "stud" either, though. I roster him. He's never been without Evans. He produced mostly out of the slot. We'll see what happens in FA, but Godwin is not an elite NFL WR in my books.

It's 3 WR sets, easy passing rules these days. Guys like Julio, AB (until he went off the deep end)...those type of guys. Get top CB coverage, and double teams, and can play everywhere. Still produce year in, year out. Those are the "studs". Few and far between. That's how I see it, anyway.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:23 am
by AussieMate
Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Godwin scored very well everytime Evans has been out injured showing that he can still perform being the alpha, which hasn't been the case for Juju. I'm sure people made the Juju comparison in the past but it was shown to be not quite the same thing.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:28 am
by Mjvb5
AussieMate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:23 am
Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Godwin scored very well everytime Evans has been out injured showing that he can still perform being the alpha, which hasn't been the case for Juju. I'm sure people made the Juju comparison in the past but it was shown to be not quite the same thing.
For arguments sake in his sophomore and rookie seasons juju actually scored incredibly well in the games that AB missed which was 3 to 5 I can't quite remember and was one of the main reasons people were so high on him.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:30 am
by FantasyFreak
AussieMate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:23 am
Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Godwin scored very well everytime Evans has been out injured showing that he can still perform being the alpha, which hasn't been the case for Juju. I'm sure people made the Juju comparison in the past but it was shown to be not quite the same thing.
We'd be talking a very small sample size, if it's the case. Evans missed 1 game in 2017, and I think maybe Godwin went off the 1 game Evans missed last year, before he himself got hurt, against the Lions, who sucked on D, so hardly a reliable marker. It would be a 2 game sample size, at most.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:11 am
by AussieMate
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:30 am
AussieMate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:23 am
Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Godwin scored very well everytime Evans has been out injured showing that he can still perform being the alpha, which hasn't been the case for Juju. I'm sure people made the Juju comparison in the past but it was shown to be not quite the same thing.
We'd be talking a very small sample size, if it's the case. Evans missed 1 game in 2017, and I think maybe Godwin went off the 1 game Evans missed last year, before he himself got hurt, against the Lions, who sucked on D, so hardly a reliable marker. It would be a 2 game sample size, at most.
I'm not sure how to research it but I thought it was more a bunch of games Evans left early or was playing banged up and Godwin actually got the wr1 treatment from defences, I'm just going off memory so could be wrong.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:14 am
by AussieMate
Mjvb5 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:28 am
AussieMate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:23 am
Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Godwin scored very well everytime Evans has been out injured showing that he can still perform being the alpha, which hasn't been the case for Juju. I'm sure people made the Juju comparison in the past but it was shown to be not quite the same thing.
For arguments sake in his sophomore and rookie seasons juju actually scored incredibly well in the games that AB missed which was 3 to 5 I can't quite remember and was one of the main reasons people were so high on him.
As I said in another post this is all going off my questionable memory but I thought Juju had a mixed bag of good and terrible games without Brown, I remember it being talked about on this forum and there was a case for both the good and bad not just incredible good.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:09 am
by FantasyFreak
AussieMate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:14 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:28 am
AussieMate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:23 am
Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Godwin scored very well everytime Evans has been out injured showing that he can still perform being the alpha, which hasn't been the case for Juju. I'm sure people made the Juju comparison in the past but it was shown to be not quite the same thing.
For arguments sake in his sophomore and rookie seasons juju actually scored incredibly well in the games that AB missed which was 3 to 5 I can't quite remember and was one of the main reasons people were so high on him.
As I said in another post this is all going off my questionable memory but I thought Juju had a mixed bag of good and terrible games without Brown, I remember it being talked about on this forum and there was a case for both the good and bad not just incredible good.
The "Foster's Memory", as some call it. :wink: "Australian for "I can't rememba". (You probably never saw the Foster's add campaign in Canada for Foster's) The "Foster's. Australian for beaaa" campaign, where they floated a bunch of Aussie stereotypes before that statement.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:41 pm
by AussieMate
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:09 am
AussieMate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:14 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:28 am

For arguments sake in his sophomore and rookie seasons juju actually scored incredibly well in the games that AB missed which was 3 to 5 I can't quite remember and was one of the main reasons people were so high on him.
As I said in another post this is all going off my questionable memory but I thought Juju had a mixed bag of good and terrible games without Brown, I remember it being talked about on this forum and there was a case for both the good and bad not just incredible good.
The "Foster's Memory", as some call it. :wink: "Australian for "I can't rememba". (You probably never saw the Foster's add campaign in Canada for Foster's) The "Foster's. Australian for beaaa" campaign, where they floated a bunch of Aussie stereotypes before that statement.
Ha I don't even think I've had Foster's, still find it strange it was peddled over seas when no one here drinks it, my apathy is both a blessing and a curse. If you ever want to end a thread with me just asked me to show the numbers and I'll probably never get around to it.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:43 pm
by Cameron Giles
Selling low on Godwin would be...a mistake.

Short-term drop in production, but not because he's regressing as a player. He's too good a route runner. I understand the Juju drop, but their roles despite playing next to another really good WR were very different.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:04 pm
by Sriracha
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:43 pm
Selling low on Godwin would be...a mistake.

Short-term drop in production, but not because he's regressing as a player. He's too good a route runner. I understand the Juju drop, but their roles despite playing next to another really good WR were very different.
100% these are two very different players.

Godwin has created separation throughout his career, Juju relied heavily on contested catches in single coverage. One of these WRs is more likely to deal with heavy defensive attention than the other.

However, both of them are seeing a volume decrease because their previously horrid defenses have both dramatically improved from their blowup seasons. This is the real reason both of them have disappointed, imo. Juju was doing fine when Diontae was pulling #1 coverage -- just not at an elite level because they weren't giving up 28 points a game.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:23 pm
by thebeast
Dibbles wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:02 am
Not sure there is a better buy low than Godwin, how quickly things can change. Was last year’s DK (for good reason), essentially hasnt mattered at all this season with Covid/injuries/new QB, not helping anyone at the moment, frustrating injuries for 6+ weeks, concerns over a 40 yr old QB who spreads it around, and now a suddenly crowded and complicated WR room with AB. Important to remember he is an absolute proven stud (regardless of QB) when healthy and given the opportunity. Not entirely sure the opportunity will be in Tampa going forward but 100% willing to buy his talent, get him on the cheap while you can, he was the overall PPR WR #2 last year at age 23. His situation can only get better from here.
You are a smart guy, I agree 100%

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:02 pm
by blemly
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:18 am
Everyone said the same about Juju...
No offense, but this level of analysis isn’t particularly helpful in my opinion. Taking one player and copying and pasting his projected future value onto a different player simply because they happen to share a few similarities doesn’t say much of anything.

Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Posted: Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:48 am
by Orenthal Shames
After a nice break, I'm finally back and digging into 2021 analysis. Upon doing so, one thing stood out to me glaringly. Deandre Swift is THE sell high currently.

DLF March Startup ADP has him at 1.6 overall (rb6). I love the player, but he's on a historically bad franchise for RB opportunity. With Williams and Kerryon in the mix, I just don't see how he ever gets enough work to justify that cost.