Buy Low/Sell High

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
jjleurquin
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:05 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:34 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:59 pm
SteveMaddensShoes wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:16 am



That's wrong. We've gone over why plenty in the other threads. Just chiming in case someone sees this and thinks they should ship off Swift or Akers for Robinson.

If you can get Akers, Swift or a 1st though I'd be all over it. Unless you are a contender who needs him do to injuries.
I'm not sure how you can be wrong about something we don't know about yet. Again I said most people probably wouldn't pay that, but that's the value you should be getting if you were to deal him. This makes him a hold for me and I'm sure most people would hold because they aren't going to get enough.

Robinson has produced at this level. Akers and Swift haven't. They of course will get more opportunities don't get me wrong but we shouldn't just write off Robinson with our only argument being that he's an UDFA after what we've seen so far. This is a simple sunk cost fallacy.
I can't say that I agree with this take. It's been 3 games where he's seen a near 100% opportunity share because Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo (2 RBs that split 1st team reps with him in training camp) are on IR

That should not overcome 3 years of college production vs power 5 conferences, and a chasm of draft capital difference.

2nd day Rookie RBs have historically started out slow as they earn their team's trust and adjust to the NFL game. Devaluing Swift and Akers at this point feels extremely reactionary.. if anyone's giving me a 1st or a RB prospect like Akers or Swift for Robinson that's a heist.
You aren't devaluing Swift or Akers though. Your reevaluating and assessing the price on a player that has one of the most unique starts we've seen for a RB. You can say whatever you want about his reason for getting so many touches, but he has proven that he can handle it, so Ozigbo won't get more than 5 carries a game if he gets any at all. Armstead isn't worth considering at this point. He wasn't there all preseason and it doesn't look like he'll be playing this season in any fashion.

Undrafted guys don't start their first game. The future looks very bright for him, the easy thing to do is just write him off as an UDFA, but the moves the Jags made combined with the opportunity he's getting and what he's doing with it is what you'd expect from an elite RB prospect. I will buy on the way up.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:06 pm

SteveMaddensShoes wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:30 pm
Oh i agree if you can get them for Jrob you should. I wouldnt send them for Jrob. Too early to call it sunk cost imo, though i do prefer to have my rbs start strong
I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:11 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:06 pm
SteveMaddensShoes wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:30 pm
Oh i agree if you can get them for Jrob you should. I wouldnt send them for Jrob. Too early to call it sunk cost imo, though i do prefer to have my rbs start strong
I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.
Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:18 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:11 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:06 pm
SteveMaddensShoes wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:30 pm
Oh i agree if you can get them for Jrob you should. I wouldnt send them for Jrob. Too early to call it sunk cost imo, though i do prefer to have my rbs start strong
I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.
Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.
I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:22 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:18 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:11 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:06 pm


I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.
Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.
I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.
Depends what you consider "success".

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:35 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:22 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:18 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:11 pm


Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.
I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.
Depends what you consider "success".
well whatever it is you define as success I think JRob has a higher probability of reaching it than whatever RB you would be selecting with a late 1st in the 2021 draft.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:42 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:35 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:22 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:18 pm


I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.
Depends what you consider "success".
well whatever it is you define as success I think JRob has a higher probability of reaching it than whatever RB you would be selecting with a late 1st in the 2021 draft.
What about a WR? Or using that first to trade for another player? In the context of a first vs Robinson, there are a lot more options than just drafting a RB with it. I'll take the first as the better asset, personally. I feel it's more insulated at this point, and will carry more overall trade value right now. 12 people out of 12 will value a first at a first, and be interested in acquiring it. Not everybody will value Robinson at a first, or be interested in acquiring him at that price. Obviously if you are trading a first for Robinson, you are looking for his short term production too, though. To each their own.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:51 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:42 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:35 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:22 pm


Depends what you consider "success".
well whatever it is you define as success I think JRob has a higher probability of reaching it than whatever RB you would be selecting with a late 1st in the 2021 draft.
What about a WR? Or using that first to trade for another player? In the context of a first vs Robinson, there are a lot more options than just drafting a RB with it. I'll take the first as the better asset, personally. I feel it's more insulated at this point, and will carry more overall trade value right now. 12 people out of 12 will value a first at a first, and be interested in acquiring it. Not everybody will value Robinson at a first, or be interested in acquiring him at that price. Obviously if you are trading a first for Robinson, you are looking for his short term production too, though. To each their own.
I agree with you, it would be harder to trade Robinson at value. So if having the best trade piece available is your strategy I get that. I look at 1sts through what I would get if I used them and I think Robinson is better than whoever would be picked with the late 1st. However you might also be able to trade the 1.11 for the 2.3 and 2.10 and get more value. If you know your league mates get rookie fever and always want to trade up this is probably a better strategy. Overall though the late 1st by itself if not traded is less valuable to me than Robinson. I don't think it's all about short term either. Typically when RBs start like this their job isn't in question, there's a small amount of risk here, but his long term outlook is better than Akers right now with the emergence of Henderson.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby dark_knite03 » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:36 am

What's the thoughts on Diggs. Currently wr8 in my league. Is it time to sell or can he sustain current production and become a true wr1?
Est '17 12 Team 1PPR 4-Pass 6-Rush/Recieve TD
Start QB RB RB WR WR TE FX FX K DL LB DB
Ryan, Minshew, D.Carr
JT, Dobbins,Monty,Singletary,Penny, D Williams
Harris, Dillon,GustheBus, JJ Taylor, Royce F
Diggs, AJB, Jefferson, DJM, Deebo, Juedy
C.Davis, Mims, Claypool, Edwards, Washington
Kittle, Andrews,Njoku, Albert O,
2021
1.02,1.04,2.04,2.06,4.04,5.04

Superflex Est 19' - - Tiered PPR
QB RB RB WR WR TE FX SF K D
Wilson, Watson, Rivers, Lock
Henry, Chubb, Sanders, Gordon, Jrob, Gallman, Moss, Davis
Adams, Godwin, DJM ,Kenaan, AJB, Hardman, Jefferson
Andrews, Goedert

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:47 am

dark_knite03 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:36 am
What's the thoughts on Diggs. Currently wr8 in my league. Is it time to sell or can he sustain current production and become a true wr1?
I didn't think he'd do this well in Buffalo. I think the team is doing well enough, and will continue to, that he'll stay productive.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Vcize » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:51 am

dark_knite03 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:36 am
What's the thoughts on Diggs. Currently wr8 in my league. Is it time to sell or can he sustain current production and become a true wr1?
Diggs typically plays really well when healthy. His problem is it seems like every year just as his value climbs up to maximum he picks up some nagging soft tissue injury that he battles through and plays at like 60% with far decreased production the rest of the year.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Murray, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, A Jones, Coleman, Ballage
WR: Hopkins, Hill, Evans, J Jefferson, Fulgham, Preston
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby mild » Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:36 pm

Vcize wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:51 am
dark_knite03 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:36 am
What's the thoughts on Diggs. Currently wr8 in my league. Is it time to sell or can he sustain current production and become a true wr1?
Diggs typically plays really well when healthy. His problem is it seems like every year just as his value climbs up to maximum he picks up some nagging soft tissue injury that he battles through and plays at like 60% with far decreased production the rest of the year.
I just traded for him last night for a contending team on the edge of death. Gave up Juju to get Diggs and Kareem Hunt to keep me in it.

Vcize's post notwithstanding - Football being a contact sport, yes - but injuries aren't predictive. Diggs took a large value hit over the offseason changing teams, but really, we are seeing now that in fact his talent insulates his value, and it is Kirk Cousins / the Vikings that have suffered more from the move. With Josh Allen looking far more comfortable as a passer, and an awesome offensive system being run by future HC candidate Brian Daboll - Diggs seems like a buy right now for any contending team.

He is about to turn 27 in November - so he is squarely in his prime. His seperation metrics on the deep ball are still top of the league - and he's currently leading the NFL in deep contested catches with 7. Basically - he's a big play downfield waiting to happen. That's really great in fantasy. Add to that that Allen is looking for him on the goal line plenty - like, you've got to love what you're seeing.

Personally, I think he's a pretty excellent buy right now - he has at least another 3 seasons of his prime, and his elite route running means that he should age fairly gracefully. If this is the new Josh Allen, then I'm cool with him and Diggs being linked for this run. He's a baller.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Blackout » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:30 pm

Diggs is not Percy Harvin
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:52 pm

This robinson hype is getting a bit nuts. Im seeing people on reddit saying that there is no way they'd take swift for robinson, like a lot of people.

It's werk 5 and yes he's looked awesome but there is a very long lists of undrafted guys having success for a 3, 5, 10 or even entire an entire season then selling cars 12 months later.

You can't dismiss him either he is passing the eye test he looks explosive and makes the most out of every carry but draft pedigree matter. It really does. And not just because "oh he'll get more oppurtunities" I doubt the numbers back that myth up. Most coaches are happy to play the hot hand. The reason it matters is because despite the odd bust or round 6 guy who ends up having a long productive career it is NOT the norm, we just focus on them

These NFL scouts know what they're doing for the most part. They spend +10 hours a day watching film and know more about football than 99% of us combined.
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Darnold(NYJ)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -DHopkins(ARI)ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:58 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:52 pm
This robinson hype is getting a bit nuts. Im seeing people on reddit saying that there is no way they'd take swift for robinson, like a lot of people.
The problem with this is that you are taking seriously something that you read on reddit.


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