Buy Low/Sell High

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jjleurquin
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:58 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:52 pm
This robinson hype is getting a bit nuts. Im seeing people on reddit saying that there is no way they'd take swift for robinson, like a lot of people.

It's werk 5 and yes he's looked awesome but there is a very long lists of undrafted guys having success for a 3, 5, 10 or even entire an entire season then selling cars 12 months later.

You can't dismiss him either he is passing the eye test he looks explosive and makes the most out of every carry but draft pedigree matter. It really does. And not just because "oh he'll get more oppurtunities" I doubt the numbers back that myth up. Most coaches are happy to play the hot hand. The reason it matters is because despite the odd bust or round 6 guy who ends up having a long productive career it is NOT the norm, we just focus on them

These NFL scouts know what they're doing for the most part. They spend +10 hours a day watching film and know more about football than 99% of us combined.
There is not a list of undrafted guys who pushed the starter off the team and started week 1 of their rookie season. So he is in uncharted territory there. The guys you were comparing him to did not have that sort of start to their career.

He has been the best rookie back to this point in the season. It's more him having icreased his price than Swift having decreased his. This seems like the appropriate price point to me, right around Swift and Akers. Is it risky? absolutely. It's just as risky to gamble on Swift or Akers at this point though.

As for the scouts I couldn't tell you why they weren't on him. A big part of it is it's hard to gauge a players dominance if it's at the FCS level compared to the FBS, combined with his not too impressive 40 time. In fact a lot of the guys we see have enormous success as UDFAs are from non FCS schools. Think Adam Thielen Austin Ekeler etc. It's just a lot harder to evaluate them when they are playing inferior competition.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:16 pm

Robinson and Gibson could be sell highs. Gibson, I finally saw the Football team use him the way i wanted, though. Splitting him out wide, throwing the ball to him in space. He still looks like a very average runner, to me. He breaks off a big run once in a while, but he really doesn't look like a nuanced runner on an average run play, which should be expected. Just not sure he ever will. I think he's best suited the way he's being used right now, about 12 carries a game, and getting targets, split out, and targeted in space. I think he's going to be a good solid RB2, even high end RB2. If they target him enough, he could get into RB1 territory, with the receiving upside, but I don't see a guy who should be commanding 18 plus carries a game. I see the talent, though. Need a first plus for sure to move him.

Robinson, I just don't see any special talent, and the situation isn't one I trust.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:18 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:58 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:52 pm
This robinson hype is getting a bit nuts. Im seeing people on reddit saying that there is no way they'd take swift for robinson, like a lot of people.

It's werk 5 and yes he's looked awesome but there is a very long lists of undrafted guys having success for a 3, 5, 10 or even entire an entire season then selling cars 12 months later.

You can't dismiss him either he is passing the eye test he looks explosive and makes the most out of every carry but draft pedigree matter. It really does. And not just because "oh he'll get more oppurtunities" I doubt the numbers back that myth up. Most coaches are happy to play the hot hand. The reason it matters is because despite the odd bust or round 6 guy who ends up having a long productive career it is NOT the norm, we just focus on them

These NFL scouts know what they're doing for the most part. They spend +10 hours a day watching film and know more about football than 99% of us combined.
There is not a list of undrafted guys who pushed the starter off the team and started week 1 of their rookie season. So he is in uncharted territory there. The guys you were comparing him to did not have that sort of start to their career.

He has been the best rookie back to this point in the season. It's more him having icreased his price than Swift having decreased his. This seems like the appropriate price point to me, right around Swift and Akers. Is it risky? absolutely. It's just as risky to gamble on Swift or Akers at this point though.

As for the scouts I couldn't tell you why they weren't on him. A big part of it is it's hard to gauge a players dominance if it's at the FCS level compared to the FBS, combined with his not too impressive 40 time. In fact a lot of the guys we see have enormous success as UDFAs are from non FCS schools. Think Adam Thielen Austin Ekeler etc. It's just a lot harder to evaluate them when they are playing inferior competition.
Don't agree on Swift. He's getting targets and receptions, just behind an all time great who's still got something left, and the staff trust a bit more on early downs. Swift has the much better profile, and is less risky long term. He comes from a program that churns out successful NFL RB's, and has a 3 down skill set. If he were on the Jags, Robinson wouldn't be a thing right now, IMO.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:08 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:18 pm


Don't agree on Swift. He's getting targets and receptions, just behind an all time great who's still got something left, and the staff trust a bit more on early downs. Swift has the much better profile, and is less risky long term. He comes from a program that churns out successful NFL RB's, and has a 3 down skill set. If he were on the Jags, Robinson wouldn't be a thing right now, IMO.
I feel that. I wouldn't give up Swift for him either but I would give up Akers. Considering Akers and Swift haven't really moved their value since the draft this puts JRob in the same boat here as both of them for me at least. Through 4 games in his rookie season he is the RB6 in PPR though. I just don't think it's crazy if someone were to give up Swift for JRob. With Swift you're hoping for a coaching change or some scenario where he becomes the 3 down back in detroit.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby AussieMate » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:46 am

jjleurquin wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:58 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:52 pm
This robinson hype is getting a bit nuts. Im seeing people on reddit saying that there is no way they'd take swift for robinson, like a lot of people.

It's werk 5 and yes he's looked awesome but there is a very long lists of undrafted guys having success for a 3, 5, 10 or even entire an entire season then selling cars 12 months later.

You can't dismiss him either he is passing the eye test he looks explosive and makes the most out of every carry but draft pedigree matter. It really does. And not just because "oh he'll get more oppurtunities" I doubt the numbers back that myth up. Most coaches are happy to play the hot hand. The reason it matters is because despite the odd bust or round 6 guy who ends up having a long productive career it is NOT the norm, we just focus on them

These NFL scouts know what they're doing for the most part. They spend +10 hours a day watching film and know more about football than 99% of us combined.
There is not a list of undrafted guys who pushed the starter off the team and started week 1 of their rookie season. So he is in uncharted territory there. The guys you were comparing him to did not have that sort of start to their career.

He has been the best rookie back to this point in the season. It's more him having icreased his price than Swift having decreased his. This seems like the appropriate price point to me, right around Swift and Akers. Is it risky? absolutely. It's just as risky to gamble on Swift or Akers at this point though.

As for the scouts I couldn't tell you why they weren't on him. A big part of it is it's hard to gauge a players dominance if it's at the FCS level compared to the FBS, combined with his not too impressive 40 time. In fact a lot of the guys we see have enormous success as UDFAs are from non FCS schools. Think Adam Thielen Austin Ekeler etc. It's just a lot harder to evaluate them when they are playing inferior competition.
Pushed the starter off the team? I don't remember it happening like that, can someone confirm Robinson was the reason they got rid of LF?

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:50 am

AussieMate wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:46 am

Pushed the starter off the team? I don't remember it happening like that, can someone confirm Robinson was the reason they got rid of LF?
Well they were shopping LF befoe that, but they did say that he and Ozigbo were the reason they were comfortable letting LF walk.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:51 am

jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:50 am
AussieMate wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:46 am

Pushed the starter off the team? I don't remember it happening like that, can someone confirm Robinson was the reason they got rid of LF?
Well they were shopping LF befoe that, but they did say that he and Ozigbo were the reason they were comfortable letting LF walk.
Source?
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Dillon, Gaskin, Mostert, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Mariota, Trub
RB: Saquon, Dobbins, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, Snell
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, Mooney, G. Davis, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Irv, Gesicki, Tonyan
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

jjleurquin
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:40 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:51 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:50 am
AussieMate wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:46 am

Pushed the starter off the team? I don't remember it happening like that, can someone confirm Robinson was the reason they got rid of LF?
Well they were shopping LF befoe that, but they did say that he and Ozigbo were the reason they were comfortable letting LF walk.
Source?
I'm not re-researching for you. If you were following in the preseason that's what they said and you can look it up yourself if you don't believe me.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:45 am

jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:40 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:51 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:50 am


Well they were shopping LF befoe that, but they did say that he and Ozigbo were the reason they were comfortable letting LF walk.
Source?
I'm not re-researching for you. If you were following in the preseason that's what they said and you can look it up yourself if you don't believe me.
I didn't find anything. That's why I asked, but ok...
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Dillon, Gaskin, Mostert, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Mariota, Trub
RB: Saquon, Dobbins, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, Snell
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, Mooney, G. Davis, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Irv, Gesicki, Tonyan
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

jjleurquin
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:09 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:45 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:40 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:51 am


Source?
I'm not re-researching for you. If you were following in the preseason that's what they said and you can look it up yourself if you don't believe me.
I didn't find anything. That's why I asked, but ok...
Instructions-

Go on google and search 'james robinson the reason the jaguars released fournette' and look at the dates the articles came out. Look for dates from the last week before the season. You must not have searched too hard because I found a couple articles within 15 seconds.

hoos89
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby hoos89 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:44 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:45 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:40 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:51 am


Source?
I'm not re-researching for you. If you were following in the preseason that's what they said and you can look it up yourself if you don't believe me.
I didn't find anything. That's why I asked, but ok...
If you search for something along the lines of "why did the Jaguars cut Fournette" you'll find stuff that includes essentially "the Jaguars were trying to trade Fournette all offseason and couldn't get ANYTHING for him." It sounds like they were willing to let him go for any draft pick as early as this spring, so if that's true then it means that Robinson probably didn't play much (if any) of a role in the decision to cut Fournette.

There's also some stuff about how the Jaguars have essentially purged the entire AFC title game roster from 3 years ago.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2020 Runner-up
Rodgers, Tannehill, Wentz
Taylor, Jacobs, Ekeler, D. Harris, Gaskin, Conner, Michel, McKinnon, Ahmed, Love
AJB, DJM, Aiyuk, Claypool, Sutton, Slayton, MVS, Agholor, J. Gordon
Andrews, Herndon
IR(3):
Taxi(4): Tua, G. Davis, Bowden
2021 Picks: 1.02, 1.05, 1.11, 3.02, 3.11, 4.11, 5.11

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Tannehill, Tua, Bridgewater, Mariota, Eason
Barkley, CEH, Ito, J. Jackson, Bowden, Homer, Love, Guice
J. Jefferson, Metcalf, McLaurin, Thielen, Jeudy, Cooks, Berrios, Byrd, Foster, Hansen, Harmon, C. Johnson, T. Johnson
Kelce, Eifert, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1.04, 1.07, 1.08, 2.09, 3.11, 4.04

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

jjleurquin
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:01 am

hoos89 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:44 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:45 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:40 am


I'm not re-researching for you. If you were following in the preseason that's what they said and you can look it up yourself if you don't believe me.
I didn't find anything. That's why I asked, but ok...
If you search for something along the lines of "why did the Jaguars cut Fournette" you'll find stuff that includes essentially "the Jaguars were trying to trade Fournette all offseason and couldn't get ANYTHING for him." It sounds like they were willing to let him go for any draft pick as early as this spring, so if that's true then it means that Robinson probably didn't play much (if any) of a role in the decision to cut Fournette.

There's also some stuff about how the Jaguars have essentially purged the entire AFC title game roster from 3 years ago.
Well it could have just been coachspeak and a response to an uncomfortable reporter question- Why did you release fournette? And they said it was because of Robinson and Ozigbos camp. You can make of it what you will.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby hoos89 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:03 am

Yeah I don't buy that response. If they were willing to sell him for a 6th rounder prior to camp that's not really much different from cutting him.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2020 Runner-up
Rodgers, Tannehill, Wentz
Taylor, Jacobs, Ekeler, D. Harris, Gaskin, Conner, Michel, McKinnon, Ahmed, Love
AJB, DJM, Aiyuk, Claypool, Sutton, Slayton, MVS, Agholor, J. Gordon
Andrews, Herndon
IR(3):
Taxi(4): Tua, G. Davis, Bowden
2021 Picks: 1.02, 1.05, 1.11, 3.02, 3.11, 4.11, 5.11

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Tannehill, Tua, Bridgewater, Mariota, Eason
Barkley, CEH, Ito, J. Jackson, Bowden, Homer, Love, Guice
J. Jefferson, Metcalf, McLaurin, Thielen, Jeudy, Cooks, Berrios, Byrd, Foster, Hansen, Harmon, C. Johnson, T. Johnson
Kelce, Eifert, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1.04, 1.07, 1.08, 2.09, 3.11, 4.04

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

jjleurquin
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:13 am

hoos89 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:03 am
Yeah I don't buy that response. If they were willing to sell him for a 6th rounder prior to camp that's not really much different from cutting him.
I get that. I always thought it was a possibility that he would get cut.

Back to the topic

I'm going to go with Chase Edmonds. I think he's a better back than Drake and should overtake him at some point this season so if you can get him for a 2nd I think he's worth it.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby murphysxm » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:17 am

I just bought Jonathan Taylor for my 2021 1st, which is likley going to be 1.12-1.14. I love reactionary owners


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