Buy Low/Sell High

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:29 am

skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:42 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:35 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:23 pm

He is for me. I made two deals to get him so far this offseason, both teams are very strong contenders.

Diontae, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd for Robinson

Tyreek, Pittman for McLaurin, Robinson

1st team was desperate for a young RB and those picks will be late unless injuries hit super hard. Finished 2nd last year in one of the worst bad beats ever. Also wanted out on Diontae and couldn't find any takers.

2nd team also need a RB pretty badly. Won the chip 2 out of 3 seasons.

The first one feels like a bit of a value overpay but if he has the same numbers as last year it's worth it. And with Lawrence coming can't imagine the offense isn't better. Figure they take another WR early too.
Diontae Johnson plus a 1st and 2nd is bordering on a 1st round startup price. I like James Robinson and I have multiple copies, and I think that’s a fair price for him. I just think you’d have to value him like a Top 12 1QB asset to say that you “bought low” at that price.
Depends on where you value the picks. Not gonna get into the weeds as to why but I'd say it's 90% they are at worst 1.09 and 2.09. Plus Diontae, who I think will be an 8th or 9th round startup value next year, for a top 10 RB in his 2nd year. That's a clear win.

Could be wrong. I take chances on trades and win a whole lot more than I lose.
Like I said, it’s fine. I just wouldn’t be surprised if that got you somebody like Dobbins or Akers. You can say it’s a win because you’re selling an asset that you think will depreciate, and that’s cool, but you’re making a case that it’s a “sell high” of Diontae rather than a “buy low.”

For it to be a buy low, you’d have to value Robinson above the market value of what you just paid, which seems to be in that Dobbins-Akers tier.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:29 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:29 am
skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:42 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:35 pm

Diontae Johnson plus a 1st and 2nd is bordering on a 1st round startup price. I like James Robinson and I have multiple copies, and I think that’s a fair price for him. I just think you’d have to value him like a Top 12 1QB asset to say that you “bought low” at that price.
Depends on where you value the picks. Not gonna get into the weeds as to why but I'd say it's 90% they are at worst 1.09 and 2.09. Plus Diontae, who I think will be an 8th or 9th round startup value next year, for a top 10 RB in his 2nd year. That's a clear win.

Could be wrong. I take chances on trades and win a whole lot more than I lose.
Like I said, it’s fine. I just wouldn’t be surprised if that got you somebody like Dobbins or Akers. You can say it’s a win because you’re selling an asset that you think will depreciate, and that’s cool, but you’re making a case that it’s a “sell high” of Diontae rather than a “buy low.”

For it to be a buy low, you’d have to value Robinson above the market value of what you just paid, which seems to be in that Dobbins-Akers tier.
I tried for Akers, got a quick reject saying he's not trading him. I prefer Robinson to Dobbins. This is part of my point though. The fact there is an Akers-Dobbins tier that Rob is not part of is kind of absurd, considering he ran laps around them last year. Sometimes just being able to acquire the player, even for a market offer or slightly better, IS the buy low. I'm not going to quibble over the definition but that's how I look at it, particularly with young RBs going that high in startups.

In any case....he is a guy that is being underrated at the moment and I would suggest trying to trade for. He outscored Dobbins by 100 points last year and noone seems to care much.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby murphysxm » Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:31 am

skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:23 pm
MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm James Robinson a buy low?

With a weak RB draft class, the chances of him holding off whatever competition he gets seem good right now. And if he plays at the level he did again next year it seems likely to me that he will be treated like a proven NFL asset at that point. I understand his circumstances around being a udfa create risk, but if he was a 2nd round pick, what would the community be trading for him this offseason? In other words, if he is able to establish himself going forward he will be worth significantly more than you can pay for him now.
He is for me. I made two deals to get him so far this offseason, both teams are very strong contenders.

Diontae, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd for Robinson

Tyreek, Pittman for McLaurin, Robinson

1st team was desperate for a young RB and those picks will be late unless injuries hit super hard. Finished 2nd last year in one of the worst bad beats ever. Also wanted out on Diontae and couldn't find any takers.

2nd team also need a RB pretty badly. Won the chip 2 out of 3 seasons.

The first one feels like a bit of a value overpay but if he has the same numbers as last year it's worth it. And with Lawrence coming can't imagine the offense isn't better. Figure they take another WR early too.
You bought him, but by no means are either of those deals buy low. You bought him expecting him to build upon last year. you paid full price
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Mjvb5 » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:45 am

If johnson, a first and a 2nd puts me into fringe round 1 startup range.... I'm pegging Johnson as a screaming sell high

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:57 am

Mjvb5 wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:45 am If johnson, a first and a 2nd puts me into fringe round 1 startup range.... I'm pegging Johnson as a screaming sell high
I don’t disagree with this at all.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby ravn88 » Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:00 am

skinfanjon wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:29 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:29 am
skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:42 pm

Depends on where you value the picks. Not gonna get into the weeds as to why but I'd say it's 90% they are at worst 1.09 and 2.09. Plus Diontae, who I think will be an 8th or 9th round startup value next year, for a top 10 RB in his 2nd year. That's a clear win.

Could be wrong. I take chances on trades and win a whole lot more than I lose.
Like I said, it’s fine. I just wouldn’t be surprised if that got you somebody like Dobbins or Akers. You can say it’s a win because you’re selling an asset that you think will depreciate, and that’s cool, but you’re making a case that it’s a “sell high” of Diontae rather than a “buy low.”

For it to be a buy low, you’d have to value Robinson above the market value of what you just paid, which seems to be in that Dobbins-Akers tier.
I tried for Akers, got a quick reject saying he's not trading him. I prefer Robinson to Dobbins. This is part of my point though. The fact there is an Akers-Dobbins tier that Rob is not part of is kind of absurd, considering he ran laps around them last year. Sometimes just being able to acquire the player, even for a market offer or slightly better, IS the buy low. I'm not going to quibble over the definition but that's how I look at it, particularly with young RBs going that high in startups.

In any case....he is a guy that is being underrated at the moment and I would suggest trying to trade for. He outscored Dobbins by 100 points last year and noone seems to care much.
I wouldnt necessarily look at it that way. Unless you belive that it will happen again this year.

And I think Dobbins will have far more carries this year.

Dobbins did also have 100 points or more on Barkley and CMC that dosent equal to heller be that much better this year. Same logic with Robinson vs Dobbins.
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QB: Carson Wentz, P. Mahomes
RB: A. Jones, MGIII, Dobbins, L. Bell, Ingram, J Williams & Gaskin
WR: D. Hopkins, J. Jones, K. Allen, J Crowder, Humpries & Agolor
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QB: J. Allen Wentz Watson D. Lock.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:09 am

ravn88 wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:00 am
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:29 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:29 am

Like I said, it’s fine. I just wouldn’t be surprised if that got you somebody like Dobbins or Akers. You can say it’s a win because you’re selling an asset that you think will depreciate, and that’s cool, but you’re making a case that it’s a “sell high” of Diontae rather than a “buy low.”

For it to be a buy low, you’d have to value Robinson above the market value of what you just paid, which seems to be in that Dobbins-Akers tier.
I tried for Akers, got a quick reject saying he's not trading him. I prefer Robinson to Dobbins. This is part of my point though. The fact there is an Akers-Dobbins tier that Rob is not part of is kind of absurd, considering he ran laps around them last year. Sometimes just being able to acquire the player, even for a market offer or slightly better, IS the buy low. I'm not going to quibble over the definition but that's how I look at it, particularly with young RBs going that high in startups.

In any case....he is a guy that is being underrated at the moment and I would suggest trying to trade for. He outscored Dobbins by 100 points last year and noone seems to care much.
I wouldnt necessarily look at it that way. Unless you belive that it will happen again this year.

And I think Dobbins will have far more carries this year.

Dobbins did also have 100 points or more on Barkley and CMC that dosent equal to heller be that much better this year. Same logic with Robinson vs Dobbins.
I'm impartial to either, but JR having 100 more carries and triple the targets doesn't make the comparison apples to apples. We don't get credit for last year's production.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Kelldon » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:40 pm

JR had something like 85% of carrie share because of injuries and Covid to other rb's on team. I'm not sure he gets 85% share again, prolly more like 70% share. I would not be surprised if he is a complete backup or lesser half of a committee in 2 years.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:35 pm

Kelldon wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:40 pm JR had something like 85% of carrie share because of injuries and Covid to other rb's on team. I'm not sure he gets 85% share again, prolly more like 70% share. I would not be surprised if he is a complete backup or lesser half of a committee in 2 years.
Not a stretch, since the average length of career for an NFL player is roughly 3.5 years. That's the case for most players.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby krtbuckeye » Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:45 pm

Kelldon wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:40 pm JR had something like 85% of carrie share because of injuries and Covid to other rb's on team. I'm not sure he gets 85% share again, prolly more like 70% share. I would not be surprised if he is a complete backup or lesser half of a committee in 2 years.
Robinson's 2020 opportunity share is exactly why I haven't even sniffed around for him for 2021 and on. Good on anyone who grabbed him late in a rookie draft or off FA last year, but in a new offense with a QB upgrade, not only will the opportunity share go down, but so will the total RB touches. That doesn't lead me to believe a repeat is on tap.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:19 pm

krtbuckeye wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:45 pm
Kelldon wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:40 pm JR had something like 85% of carrie share because of injuries and Covid to other rb's on team. I'm not sure he gets 85% share again, prolly more like 70% share. I would not be surprised if he is a complete backup or lesser half of a committee in 2 years.
Robinson's 2020 opportunity share is exactly why I haven't even sniffed around for him for 2021 and on. Good on anyone who grabbed him late in a rookie draft or off FA last year, but in a new offense with a QB upgrade, not only will the opportunity share go down, but so will the total RB touches. That doesn't lead me to believe a repeat is on tap.
Jax was already dead last in number of rushes last season as a team so I'm not sure you are going to see a huge dropoff in RB touches. I do think the opportunity share will go down though.

However they may have a more positive game script and more scoring opportunities than last season. If he is given the 3 down role and 70% of the market share, he will be an RB1 next season.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby mild » Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:09 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:29 am I prefer Robinson to Dobbins.
Counterpoint.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Lumps » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:40 pm

The Godwin Complex wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:12 pm

I actually think James Robinson/Carlos Hyde will be the next coming of MJD/Fred Taylor. It will be fun to watch the resurgence of the Jaguars.
You guys are over here arguing about what's a fair price to pay for Robinson and I'm looking at this here..... :shock: :shock: :shock:

I looked multiple times and I didn't see a hint of sarcasm anywhere...
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:42 pm

Lumps wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:40 pm
The Godwin Complex wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:12 pm

I actually think James Robinson/Carlos Hyde will be the next coming of MJD/Fred Taylor. It will be fun to watch the resurgence of the Jaguars.
You guys are over here arguing about what's a fair price to pay for Robinson and I'm looking at this here..... :shock: :shock: :shock:

I looked multiple times and I didn't see a hint of sarcasm anywhere...
Carlos Hyde and Travis Fulgham are league winners, duh...

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby murphysxm » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:44 pm

Lumps wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:40 pm
The Godwin Complex wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:12 pm

I actually think James Robinson/Carlos Hyde will be the next coming of MJD/Fred Taylor. It will be fun to watch the resurgence of the Jaguars.
You guys are over here arguing about what's a fair price to pay for Robinson and I'm looking at this here..... :shock: :shock: :shock:

I looked multiple times and I didn't see a hint of sarcasm anywhere...
I will not provide sarcasm, but this is a lofty prediction.
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