Buy Low/Sell High

[Pullo Vision]

Love this back and forth and it's been mostly civil. Washington has one of the most interesting WR corps.

PRich got good money, but I think the contract reflects the value of his role as a lid lifter and d breaker, and the fact they didn't have a player in that role last year. They forced Vernon Davis into that, but he wore down as injuries elsewhere elevated his every down role. I don't think Richardson'll be solely a downfield decoy, they obviously would have to vary it, and that would include some slot snaps. But, I think he'll primarily be a perimeter chunk play guy.

Crowder meshes the best with Alex Smith's historical pattern of play, but it'll be interesting if Smith maintains his QB play from last year. I expect they'll play Crowder snaps out wide, at least at the beginning of the season. If he shows he can hold up and maintain performance, an extension would make sense. They need to know if they have a slot-only WR like Landry is derided as. They can't allow themselves to be in the position of the Dolphins were this offseason, who let a productive WR go because they didn't know if he could play out wide.

Doctson is the most interesting WR here. They've cleared the deck, so to speak, for him to be the primary WR. I think he's the upside play. I think he's also the reason they haven't really augmented the WR corps, like bringing in Dez. If he can't handle being the primary guy, they'll let Crowder and Doctson go and target a primary weapon. Everything's lining up for Doctson. Whether he seizes the opportunity is the question.

[Ice]

Ok
I apologize for calling you names.

But let me ask you this in another way: what has Hogan done in his career that makes last seasons injury fueled half season breakout any different than Kamar Aikens injury fueled half season breakout in 2015? Because in my opinion when all the pieces have been healthy, Hogan is nothing more than situational deep threat that will have a couple of good games a season based on when he scores a TD. He is at least 4th in the target pecking order behind Edelman, Gronk and whichever RB has the hot hand this week. And like I said before old Wrs don't all of a sudden break out at 30.

But its all just, like, my opinion man.

Fair enough,

I get injuries are always a concern with any player. Hogan suffered a pretty serious shoulder injury which cost him the last half of the season. While he did start off pretty slow in NE when he came over in 2016 he blew up in the Playoffs and this break out continued the first 8 games into 2017. Surprising, even to me to a degree he was as good and better than Cooks many games in 2017. He now knows the system cold and Brady is obviously a great QB and certainly has built some level of trust. I strongly disagree he is just a situational deep threat. His final 11 games including the playoffs in 2016 show otherwise. His Super Bowl performance last year also show he is solid target that Brady looks for with regularity.

My upside projection puts him in the conversation for top 13-20 range this season and is one of my strongest plays this season that can be had at a reasonable price point.

Rather than go into a lot more specifics on this player I will provide a couple of quotes I found with sources. .

From Fantasy Pros on 2018 Breakout Candidates
"Chris Hogan (NE)
“There are a lot of possibilities here, but I’ll go with Patriots receiver Chris Hogan. Since joining the Patriots in 2016, Hogan has 72 receptions from 117 targets (61.5 percent) and 1,119 yards along with nine touchdowns. Plus, he’ll now be in line for the big play lead in this offense with Brandin Cooks
gone.”
– Chet Gresham (WalterFootball)"

From RotoWire
"Patriots' Chris Hogan: Could see bigger role in 2018
by RotoWire Staff | RotoWire

Hogan appears poised to see an expanded workload this coming season, Jeff Howe of The Athletic Boston reports.

Hogan got off to a strong start in the 2017 campaign before hurting his shoulder and missing all but one game in the second half of the regular season. A six-catch, 128-yard effort in the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles gave the 29-year-old something to build off of and he heads into the coming season atop the Patriots' wideout depth chart, with Brandin Cooks having been traded to the Rams and Julian Edelman facing a four-game suspension out of the gate. Now well past his shoulder woes, Hogan figures to be one of quarterback Tom Brady's key targets early on. Moreover, with Cooks no longer in the mix, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound Hogan -- who is already a solid red-zone option -- could see more downfield looks this season, while Edelman does most of his damage in the short-to-intermediate passing game."

As you can see, I am not alone on an island when it comes to Hogan. How he ultimately does obviously remains to be seen. He could exceed my expectations or fall flat.

If you really want to learn a bit more about Hogan here is his Wiki Page. He played football and Lacrosse in high school but actually went to Penn State on a Lacrosse scholarship. He graduated from their with a year of eligibility left so went to Monmouth for a year and played a little on both sides of the ball. Like I mentioned early on, he was a late bloomer in football.

Little known fact: He still holds the bench record for WR's at the combine since 2011.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Hog ... _football)

[skinfanjon]

Love this back and forth and it's been mostly civil. Washington has one of the most interesting WR corps.

PRich got good money, but I think the contract reflects the value of his role as a lid lifter and d breaker, and the fact they didn't have a player in that role last year. They forced Vernon Davis into that, but he wore down as injuries elsewhere elevated his every down role. I don't think Richardson'll be solely a downfield decoy, they obviously would have to vary it, and that would include some slot snaps. But, I think he'll primarily be a perimeter chunk play guy.

Crowder meshes the best with Alex Smith's historical pattern of play, but it'll be interesting if Smith maintains his QB play from last year. I expect they'll play Crowder snaps out wide, at least at the beginning of the season. If he shows he can hold up and maintain performance, an extension would make sense. They need to know if they have a slot-only WR like Landry is derided as. They can't allow themselves to be in the position of the Dolphins were this offseason, who let a productive WR go because they didn't know if he could play out wide.

Doctson is the most interesting WR here. They've cleared the deck, so to speak, for him to be the primary WR. I think he's the upside play. I think he's also the reason they haven't really augmented the WR corps, like bringing in Dez. If he can't handle being the primary guy, they'll let Crowder and Doctson go and target a primary weapon. Everything's lining up for Doctson. Whether he seizes the opportunity is the question.

The thing with Doctson is he was a McCloughan (fired) pick. And a first rounder to boot. Gruden soured on him quickly because he had a mysterious Achilles injury that noone could diagnose as a rookie, so he doesn't have any staunch advocators at this point.

He has all the tools, but the coaches don't fully trust him and from my.point of view, I see a guy with a lot of God given ability and lack of killer instinct. He's just not gritty enough.

Based on each of their modest adps, I'd go Crowder by a lot...then P Rich...and only roster Doctson if I wanted to gamble that he'll grow a pair.

In other words, Crowder is high floor/low ceiling. Richardson low floor/medium ceiling. Doctson literally no floor, WR1 ceiling with a 90% failure rate. That's all opinion based on what my eyeballs see though.

What's NOT an opinion is that Crowder will play a ton of SLOT. That's just a fact.

[tombonneau]

Sell High
McKinnon
Drake
Barkley
Engram
Thielen
Arob


Buy Low
Evans
DJ
Landry
H Henry
Ty Hilton

Mixed, depending on personal view
D Henry
A Cooper

I don't think DJ is a buy low anymore, I think that ship has sailed. owners waited this long, I don't see why they wouldn't wait a few more weeks.
Cooper I think is crud, but that's just my opinion.

I agree with Thielen is a sell high, I bounced him out for Devonta Freeman, couldn't be more happy.

Agreed DJ ship sailed. I had an owner on the line during the offseason and was reeling him in with the mystery injury. But now that all that has cleared and the draft has brought with it a whiff of Hope and rebuilding, DJ is off the table.

I was actually hesitant to give up too much for DJ at his age and limited track record honestly.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Dare I add that Martavis Bryant could be a buy low? He is only 27 and immensely talented. He potentially needs to beat out an aging Jordy Nelson. If he develops some chemistry with David Carr, the dude could get a decent number of targets (albeit in a Gruden Grinder offense). I'm holding my shares of him, hoping he can surprise us with a 1,000 yard season and 7-10 TDs.

[Pullo Vision]

DJ's age and the questions about the offense are why I never considered him a buy.

I've thought Bryant is a worthwhile shot, but actually have targeted Nelson for his greater chance at usable production.

[Ice]

Dare I add that Martavis Bryant could be a buy low? He is only 27 and immensely talented. He potentially needs to beat out an aging Jordy Nelson. If he develops some chemistry with David Carr, the dude could get a decent number of targets (albeit in a Gruden Grinder offense). I'm holding my shares of him, hoping he can surprise us with a 1,000 yard season and 7-10 TDs.

Bryant is an outlier IMO. As one of the most polarizing players due to obvious risk factors he is a buy low and sell high candidate. I think you hit as HOLD player.

I wouldn't touch him as I think its only a matter of time but his owners don't seem to be of the mind they won't sell unless the return is equal to his actual talent.

-----

On DJ, I don't get age concerns with DJ. He is 26 with low miles. L. Bell is also 26. I could see selling them high but age is not a factor given they have or should have high production for another 4 years.

[Ice]

Marlon Mack is a player I have targeted hard in trades as buy low candidate. He is player I add to trades as a hidden target. Probably a 25-35 ranked RB by those types which could put RB1 numbers this season if the chips fall correctly.

[Pullo Vision]

Love this back and forth and it's been mostly civil. Washington has one of the most interesting WR corps.

PRich got good money, but I think the contract reflects the value of his role as a lid lifter and d breaker, and the fact they didn't have a player in that role last year. They forced Vernon Davis into that, but he wore down as injuries elsewhere elevated his every down role. I don't think Richardson'll be solely a downfield decoy, they obviously would have to vary it, and that would include some slot snaps. But, I think he'll primarily be a perimeter chunk play guy.

Crowder meshes the best with Alex Smith's historical pattern of play, but it'll be interesting if Smith maintains his QB play from last year. I expect they'll play Crowder snaps out wide, at least at the beginning of the season. If he shows he can hold up and maintain performance, an extension would make sense. They need to know if they have a slot-only WR like Landry is derided as. They can't allow themselves to be in the position of the Dolphins were this offseason, who let a productive WR go because they didn't know if he could play out wide.

Doctson is the most interesting WR here. They've cleared the deck, so to speak, for him to be the primary WR. I think he's the upside play. I think he's also the reason they haven't really augmented the WR corps, like bringing in Dez. If he can't handle being the primary guy, they'll let Crowder and Doctson go and target a primary weapon. Everything's lining up for Doctson. Whether he seizes the opportunity is the question.

The thing with Doctson is he was a McCloughan (fired) pick. And a first rounder to boot. Gruden soured on him quickly because he had a mysterious Achilles injury that noone could diagnose as a rookie, so he doesn't have any staunch advocators at this point.

He has all the tools, but the coaches don't fully trust him and from my.point of view, I see a guy with a lot of God given ability and lack of killer instinct. He's just not gritty enough.

Based on each of their modest adps, I'd go Crowder by a lot...then P Rich...and only roster Doctson if I wanted to gamble that he'll grow a pair.

In other words, Crowder is high floor/low ceiling. Richardson low floor/medium ceiling. Doctson literally no floor, WR1 ceiling with a 90% failure rate. That's all opinion based on what my eyeballs see though.

What's NOT an opinion is that Crowder will play a ton of SLOT. That's just a fact.

Well, Doctson wouldnt be the first McCloughan pick I wiffed on. I slobbered all over Matt Jones. In one of my leagues, he's lived on one of three rosters and is never on waivers long. Now he's in Philly on a 2 year deal, longer than Ajayi and Sproles. I'm bit again.

I agree with pretty much your entire last 2 paragraphs. I think Doctson's fail chance isn't as high as 90%. I think PRich will have a high any-game ceiling, but his any-game floor will be low. Think his end of year stats will be decent enough, though, assuming he plays all 16. I'll be very curious about Crowder's snap count about slot/perimeter snap distribution. If the staff tests him out out wide and thinks he fails there, decides not to beat his FA market and/or believe Doctson can't be a starting WR, I think we'll see guys like Robert Davis get play towards the end of the season, especially if the season goes down the drain.

[Ice]

Love this back and forth and it's been mostly civil. Washington has one of the most interesting WR corps.

PRich got good money, but I think the contract reflects the value of his role as a lid lifter and d breaker, and the fact they didn't have a player in that role last year. They forced Vernon Davis into that, but he wore down as injuries elsewhere elevated his every down role. I don't think Richardson'll be solely a downfield decoy, they obviously would have to vary it, and that would include some slot snaps. But, I think he'll primarily be a perimeter chunk play guy.

Crowder meshes the best with Alex Smith's historical pattern of play, but it'll be interesting if Smith maintains his QB play from last year. I expect they'll play Crowder snaps out wide, at least at the beginning of the season. If he shows he can hold up and maintain performance, an extension would make sense. They need to know if they have a slot-only WR like Landry is derided as. They can't allow themselves to be in the position of the Dolphins were this offseason, who let a productive WR go because they didn't know if he could play out wide.

Doctson is the most interesting WR here. They've cleared the deck, so to speak, for him to be the primary WR. I think he's the upside play. I think he's also the reason they haven't really augmented the WR corps, like bringing in Dez. If he can't handle being the primary guy, they'll let Crowder and Doctson go and target a primary weapon. Everything's lining up for Doctson. Whether he seizes the opportunity is the question.

The thing with Doctson is he was a McCloughan (fired) pick. And a first rounder to boot. Gruden soured on him quickly because he had a mysterious Achilles injury that noone could diagnose as a rookie, so he doesn't have any staunch advocators at this point.

He has all the tools, but the coaches don't fully trust him and from my.point of view, I see a guy with a lot of God given ability and lack of killer instinct. He's just not gritty enough.

Based on each of their modest adps, I'd go Crowder by a lot...then P Rich...and only roster Doctson if I wanted to gamble that he'll grow a pair.

In other words, Crowder is high floor/low ceiling. Richardson low floor/medium ceiling. Doctson literally no floor, WR1 ceiling with a 90% failure rate. That's all opinion based on what my eyeballs see though.

What's NOT an opinion is that Crowder will play a ton of SLOT. That's just a fact.

Well, Doctson wouldnt be the first McCloughan pick I wiffed on. I slobbered all over Matt Jones. In one of my leagues, he's lived on one of three rosters and is never on waivers long. Now he's in Philly on a 2 year deal, longer than Ajayi and Sproles. I'm bit again.

I agree with pretty much your entire last 2 paragraphs. I think Doctson's fail chance isn't as high as 90%. I think PRich will have a high any-game ceiling, but his any-game floor will be low. Think his end of year stats will be decent enough, though, assuming he plays all 16. I'll be very curious about Crowder's snap count about slot/perimeter snap distribution. If the staff tests him out out wide and thinks he fails there, decides not to beat his FA market and/or believe Doctson can't be a starting WR, I think we'll see guys like Robert Davis get play towards the end of the season, especially if the season goes down the drain.

For those of you that are really interested in Crowder and one reason I think he may transition outside more in 2018 goes back to 2016 where he obviously had a very good year out of the slot. What is lesser known is he was actually better than every Slot WR in the NFL and he was also more effective outside than he was in the slot.

In 2016 his separation on the outside was 3.88 vs 3.48 from the slot. He lined up outside 23.2% of the time.

He did step back quite a bit in efficiency in 2017. A lot could have been attributed to the loss of Jackson and Garcon forcing better coverage and a poster also mentioned his hammy but when given the opportunity in 2016 he was actually quite good on the outside especially for a small average speed player.

The jury is still out on Docston IMO, He hasn't been the picture of health and his game speed must change a lot from route to route as it seems he is always just a bit out sync with his QB. The change to Smith could help him. Doctson's tape was outstanding in college but it hasn't transitioned yet to the Pros. I had him rated pretty high coming out so I may have missed on him but he is still quite young.

[skinfanjon]

The thing with Doctson is he was a McCloughan (fired) pick. And a first rounder to boot. Gruden soured on him quickly because he had a mysterious Achilles injury that noone could diagnose as a rookie, so he doesn't have any staunch advocators at this point.

He has all the tools, but the coaches don't fully trust him and from my.point of view, I see a guy with a lot of God given ability and lack of killer instinct. He's just not gritty enough.

Based on each of their modest adps, I'd go Crowder by a lot...then P Rich...and only roster Doctson if I wanted to gamble that he'll grow a pair.

In other words, Crowder is high floor/low ceiling. Richardson low floor/medium ceiling. Doctson literally no floor, WR1 ceiling with a 90% failure rate. That's all opinion based on what my eyeballs see though.

What's NOT an opinion is that Crowder will play a ton of SLOT. That's just a fact.

Well, Doctson wouldnt be the first McCloughan pick I wiffed on. I slobbered all over Matt Jones. In one of my leagues, he's lived on one of three rosters and is never on waivers long. Now he's in Philly on a 2 year deal, longer than Ajayi and Sproles. I'm bit again.

I agree with pretty much your entire last 2 paragraphs. I think Doctson's fail chance isn't as high as 90%. I think PRich will have a high any-game ceiling, but his any-game floor will be low. Think his end of year stats will be decent enough, though, assuming he plays all 16. I'll be very curious about Crowder's snap count about slot/perimeter snap distribution. If the staff tests him out out wide and thinks he fails there, decides not to beat his FA market and/or believe Doctson can't be a starting WR, I think we'll see guys like Robert Davis get play towards the end of the season, especially if the season goes down the drain.

For those of you that are really interested in Crowder and one reason I think he may transition outside more in 2018 goes back to 2016 where he obviously had a very good year out of the slot. What is lesser known is he was actually better than every Slot WR in the NFL and he was also more effective outside than he was in the slot.

In 2016 his separation on the outside was 3.88 vs 3.48 from the slot. He lined up outside 23.2% of the time.

He did step back quite a bit in efficiency in 2017. A lot could have been attributed to the loss of Jackson and Garcon forcing better coverage and a poster also mentioned his hammy but when given the opportunity in 2016 he was actually quite good on the outside especially for a small average speed player.

The jury is still out on Docston IMO, He hasn't been the picture of health and his game speed must change a lot from route to route as it seems he is always just a bit out sync with his QB. The change to Smith could help him. Doctson's tape was outstanding in college but it hasn't transitioned yet to the Pros. I had him rated pretty high coming out so I may have missed on him but he is still quite young.

LOL. Can't make this stuff up. It's not lesser known. It's literally right there in the article I posted yesterday. Stop trying to act like you've got some super secret stack of books that give you a PhD in fantasy football.

With the loss of Garcon and Djax, the plan was to feature Crowder more heavily and yes, that involved moving him out of the slot with more frequency. But he had a hammy in training camp and reaggrevated it towards the middle of the season. He wasn't quite right all year. Not to mention he had almost no help because Pryor was a total bust, Doctson entirely unreliable, and Jordan Reed was MIA per usual.

It's almost like the front office suffered through all that and said, you know what? We should sign a deep threat receiver to help lift the lid.

One thing to keep an eye on with this receiving corp is the development of Mr. Irrelevant, Trey Quinn. Gruden was gushing about him after OTAs. If Doctson flops and he develops quickly, it may become the best allocation of resources to kick Crowder out more and more.

[Ice]

@ Skinfanjon,

It may not be lesser known to you but if you think everyone knows a lot of in depth factoids about Crowder you are mistaken. The poster I responded to mentioned Crowder's use on the outside as a question if you actually read the post..... I was informing him politely that there actually is film on that and in fact he was used in that capacity.

Obviously, it is not some secret given the information is public but is also pretty clear the poster was questioning his outside use/game.

You are an amazement. Perhaps rather trolling my posts looking for reasons to argue you would take them in some context.

[skinfanjon]

I'd like to believe that you're not trying to present yourself as above the rest of us, but when you say things like:

"I have 30 years of experience and study teams, their GM moves, and players at many levels"

and

"I do study this game a lot. I actually have done cheat sheets and rankings for websites, and use to write a articles for a couple. "

then I expect you to do better than to take information I post and try to pass it off as your own to bolster your point.

To borrow one of your phrases, perhaps a less disingenuous way to go about it would be to make it clear that it was info you picked up during the discussion of the topic at hand.

[Ice]

I'd like to believe that you're not trying to present yourself as above the rest of us, but when you say things like:

"I have 30 years of experience and study teams, their GM moves, and players at many levels"

and

"I do study this game a lot. I actually have done cheat sheets and rankings for websites, and use to write a articles for a couple. "

then I expect you to do better than to take information I post and try to pass it off as your own to bolster your point.

To borrow one of your phrases, perhaps a less disingenuous way to go about it would be to make it clear that it was info you picked up during the discussion of the topic at hand.

YOU ARE WORTHLESS TROLL!

Perhaps this site offers a BLOCKING feature.

It is people like you that ruin fantasy football forums... Go down to Mom's basement TROLL!

[skinfanjon]

If I'm a troll, it's only because you're a hack.

One of us has provided valuable insight into the Redskins receiving corp.

(Hint: It's not you)