Buy Low/Sell High

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murphysxm
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby murphysxm » Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:08 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:04 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:15 pm
As a relatively sticky stat telling of a WR's ability to earn targets I see that as extremely telling of his ability to be a WR1 the way AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, etc are
While earning targets is somewhat of a skill, you still have to acknowledge the players they play with which absolutely impacts target share. Dallas has a lot more players to feed with Cooper, Gallup, Schultz, than Minnesota or Tennessee does in the passing game, which is why Lamb's target share has never been that high.
I hear what you are saying, but if you are a top 5 asset, you get the targets.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:12 pm

murphysxm wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:08 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:04 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:15 pm
As a relatively sticky stat telling of a WR's ability to earn targets I see that as extremely telling of his ability to be a WR1 the way AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, etc are
While earning targets is somewhat of a skill, you still have to acknowledge the players they play with which absolutely impacts target share. Dallas has a lot more players to feed with Cooper, Gallup, Schultz, than Minnesota or Tennessee does in the passing game, which is why Lamb's target share has never been that high.
I hear what you are saying, but if you are a top 5 asset, you get the targets.
WRs who have good rookie seasons typically rise up high in ADP. It's always been like that. Lamb's upside has been baked into his price since last season.

People want room to buy before a big breakout, but owners just aren't going to do that. It's nothing new.

If you think Lamb will never reach a higher target share, then I get selling. But, I think it will increase going forward and justify the price.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:41 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:12 pm
murphysxm wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:08 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:04 pm

While earning targets is somewhat of a skill, you still have to acknowledge the players they play with which absolutely impacts target share. Dallas has a lot more players to feed with Cooper, Gallup, Schultz, than Minnesota or Tennessee does in the passing game, which is why Lamb's target share has never been that high.
I hear what you are saying, but if you are a top 5 asset, you get the targets.
WRs who have good rookie seasons typically rise up high in ADP. It's always been like that. Lamb's upside has been baked into his price since last season.

People want room to buy before a big breakout, but owners just aren't going to do that. It's nothing new.

If you think Lamb will never reach a higher target share, then I get selling. But, I think it will increase going forward and justify the price.
I don't know about never but I don't foresee a 5% jump either

Amari Cooper isn't really getting a number 1 WR target share either fwiw. He never has. Pretty much always been in the 20-21% range both in Oakland when he was competing with nobodies and today when competing with Lamb and Gallup

It's not like he's playing with a Davante Adams or something. The slot factor and not facing number 1 corners would also worry me

He's pretty obviously a good player but he hasn't done anything to justify a top 5 WR price tag

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:00 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:37 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:02 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:34 am

I'd rather have Lamb. A year younger + better talent + QB stability, that Mooney and Waddle do not have.

Hitting 79/1102/6 in 16 games in your second year is not bad at all. I'd be open to trading him, but it'd have to be for something more enticing than that.
Better talent lol

How many years does someone like Tee Higgins have to keep outproducing Lamb before the "talent" excuse runs out
Higgins wasn't a part of the discussion. But, I'd take Lamb over Higgins as well, because Lamb will likely be the undisputed #1 at some point (and basically was this season). There's really no path for Higgins overtaking Chase. So, a little less upside long-term to me.
Are you anticipating both Cooper and Gallup leave and aren't replaced?
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby dondickenson » Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:02 am

On teams where I have sold out future picks to win now, this is the time(and for the next 7-8 months) where I start to make an absolute killing buying up older win now pieces. Not all older guys are buys though, as some maintain a lot more value than others at the same age and same likely production next few years, usually based on contrived narrative. Here are my targets by position that should come cheap compared to the potential they offer in 1-3 year production window:

QB
Brady 44
Rodgers 38
Wilson 33
Cousins 33
Ryan 36

RB
Henry 28
Hunt 26
MG III 28

WR
Ridley 27
ARob 29
Hopkins 29
Evans 28
Thomas 28
Thielen 31
Cooks 28

TE
Ertz 31
Gronk 32
Henry 27

I think these guys are mostly gonna go for bargain basement prices. A few might not still
In your league like ARodg Henry Evans, but across the board they will be cheap on average. I’m also throwing out feelers on other older RBs like Kamara and CMC to see if they can be bought at a discount, just don’t see it as much so didn’t list them.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:25 am

Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:00 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:37 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:02 pm

Better talent lol

How many years does someone like Tee Higgins have to keep outproducing Lamb before the "talent" excuse runs out
Higgins wasn't a part of the discussion. But, I'd take Lamb over Higgins as well, because Lamb will likely be the undisputed #1 at some point (and basically was this season). There's really no path for Higgins overtaking Chase. So, a little less upside long-term to me.
Are you anticipating both Cooper and Gallup leave and aren't replaced?
Gallup is a free agent this offseason. Cooper is expensive. It's fair to believe that neither of them will be around for Lamb's prime years. Dallas will obviously look to replace them, but finding WRs as good as them, let alone on the same team, isn't exactly easy.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:35 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:41 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:12 pm
murphysxm wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:08 pm

I hear what you are saying, but if you are a top 5 asset, you get the targets.
WRs who have good rookie seasons typically rise up high in ADP. It's always been like that. Lamb's upside has been baked into his price since last season.

People want room to buy before a big breakout, but owners just aren't going to do that. It's nothing new.

If you think Lamb will never reach a higher target share, then I get selling. But, I think it will increase going forward and justify the price.
I don't know about never but I don't foresee a 5% jump either

Amari Cooper isn't really getting a number 1 WR target share either fwiw. He never has. Pretty much always been in the 20-21% range both in Oakland when he was competing with nobodies and today when competing with Lamb and Gallup

It's not like he's playing with a Davante Adams or something. The slot factor and not facing number 1 corners would also worry me

He's pretty obviously a good player but he hasn't done anything to justify a top 5 WR price tag
How many teams can you think of with #2 and #3 WRs as good as Dallas? It's a short list. I'm not saying he's playing with three all pros, I'm just saying there's more competition for targets than there was in Miami and Chicago this season and they distributed them very close.

Lamb - 20.4
Cooper - 18.8
Gallup - 16.6
Schultz - 16.4

I think saying that Lamb's target share is not elite because he's not capable of doing better is the wrong conclusion here.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Ski mask ready » Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:47 pm

I like mooney as a buy right now. I think his situation only gets better w robison tipping the age scale. Mooney is a below the radar high upside for me. Some of the leagues best wrs we're late draft gems. Holding/buying mooney personally.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby murphysxm » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:51 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:35 am
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:41 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:12 pm

WRs who have good rookie seasons typically rise up high in ADP. It's always been like that. Lamb's upside has been baked into his price since last season.

People want room to buy before a big breakout, but owners just aren't going to do that. It's nothing new.

If you think Lamb will never reach a higher target share, then I get selling. But, I think it will increase going forward and justify the price.
I don't know about never but I don't foresee a 5% jump either

Amari Cooper isn't really getting a number 1 WR target share either fwiw. He never has. Pretty much always been in the 20-21% range both in Oakland when he was competing with nobodies and today when competing with Lamb and Gallup

It's not like he's playing with a Davante Adams or something. The slot factor and not facing number 1 corners would also worry me

He's pretty obviously a good player but he hasn't done anything to justify a top 5 WR price tag
How many teams can you think of with #2 and #3 WRs as good as Dallas? It's a short list. I'm not saying he's playing with three all pros, I'm just saying there's more competition for targets than there was in Miami and Chicago this season and they distributed them very close.

Lamb - 20.4
Cooper - 18.8
Gallup - 16.6
Schultz - 16.4

I think saying that Lamb's target share is not elite because he's not capable of doing better is the wrong conclusion here.
In the same vein, Ceedee has had his most success when he plays in the slot against a nickel back. He loses the protection of Cooper and to a lesser extent Gallup, he draws the coverages and is on the outside. He should be producing more to deserve his current price tag.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:37 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:25 am
Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:00 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:37 pm

Higgins wasn't a part of the discussion. But, I'd take Lamb over Higgins as well, because Lamb will likely be the undisputed #1 at some point (and basically was this season). There's really no path for Higgins overtaking Chase. So, a little less upside long-term to me.
Are you anticipating both Cooper and Gallup leave and aren't replaced?
Gallup is a free agent this offseason. Cooper is expensive. It's fair to believe that neither of them will be around for Lamb's prime years. Dallas will obviously look to replace them, but finding WRs as good as them, let alone on the same team, isn't exactly easy.
I've seen some speculation that Dallas will let go of Cooper in a year. Assuming both he and Gallup are gone, I find it difficult to imagine Dallas wouldn't be aggressive in addressing the WR position. I'm not talking throwing late day 2 or day 3 picks at the position, or going bargain shopping in FA, but being aggressive in going after a top tier FA or in the trade market, like they're Cooper trade.

But, that's speculation on top of speculation.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:10 pm

After seeing Akers do OK tonight, I am looking to acquire Darrell Henderson. I think his price will drop, and people may be looking to cash out. What I've seen over the last 2 years, any RB can produce in this system, with moderate talent, and I believe he has that. FWIW, I'd trade for Akers if the price was right, but I have a feeling he's going to be overvalued like he was last off season (not by as much, but I feel most will want an overpay). I am not confident in Akers ability to stay healthy, never was before his achilles. Henderson doesn't stay on the field himself, but part of what will drop his price, too. I want the cheaper option in this backfield, because the Rams system produces at the position, whoever is there. I think they probably run a committee next year, hot hand approach, but probably a 60/40 type split in Akers favour to start out.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby zamboni » Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:46 am

Ski mask ready wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:47 pm I like mooney as a buy right now. I think his situation only gets better w robison tipping the age scale. Mooney is a below the radar high upside for me. Some of the leagues best wrs we're late draft gems. Holding/buying mooney personally.
I agree for now, but have to think the Bears will bring in some big time weapons to help Fields either via FA, the rookie draft, or both. Who they bring in will go a long way towards determining whether Mooney can take that next step or will just be a strong #2 for the team.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby mild » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:41 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:10 pm After seeing Akers do OK tonight, I am looking to acquire Darrell Henderson. I think his price will drop, and people may be looking to cash out. What I've seen over the last 2 years, any RB can produce in this system, with moderate talent, and I believe he has that. FWIW, I'd trade for Akers if the price was right, but I have a feeling he's going to be overvalued like he was last off season (not by as much, but I feel most will want an overpay). I am not confident in Akers ability to stay healthy, never was before his achilles. Henderson doesn't stay on the field himself, but part of what will drop his price, too. I want the cheaper option in this backfield, because the Rams system produces at the position, whoever is there. I think they probably run a committee next year, hot hand approach, but probably a 60/40 type split in Akers favour to start out.
Freak, I'm confused - weren't they borderline trying to get -away- from D-Hendo this season? Seemed like they couldn't wait for Sony to take over from him and they don't think he can be "the guy" on his own workload-wise (hence making the trade).

I find it hard to believe they'll re-sign Hendo beyond 2022 when his contract expires. Is this more of a contender hedge move for next year only?

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:50 pm

Pullo Vision wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:37 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:25 am
Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:00 pm
Are you anticipating both Cooper and Gallup leave and aren't replaced?
Gallup is a free agent this offseason. Cooper is expensive. It's fair to believe that neither of them will be around for Lamb's prime years. Dallas will obviously look to replace them, but finding WRs as good as them, let alone on the same team, isn't exactly easy.
I've seen some speculation that Dallas will let go of Cooper in a year. Assuming both he and Gallup are gone, I find it difficult to imagine Dallas wouldn't be aggressive in addressing the WR position. I'm not talking throwing late day 2 or day 3 picks at the position, or going bargain shopping in FA, but being aggressive in going after a top tier FA or in the trade market, like they're Cooper trade.

But, that's speculation on top of speculation.
I think you're right. I'm just saying that, Dallas getting players who are just as good as Cooper and Gallup (both have had an 1100+ yard season in the last 3 seasons) is not a shoe-in. Lamb would likely be the guy.

I just don't buy that a 20% target share is as good as it gets for Lamb after Year 2.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:39 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:50 pm
Pullo Vision wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:37 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:25 am

Gallup is a free agent this offseason. Cooper is expensive. It's fair to believe that neither of them will be around for Lamb's prime years. Dallas will obviously look to replace them, but finding WRs as good as them, let alone on the same team, isn't exactly easy.
I've seen some speculation that Dallas will let go of Cooper in a year. Assuming both he and Gallup are gone, I find it difficult to imagine Dallas wouldn't be aggressive in addressing the WR position. I'm not talking throwing late day 2 or day 3 picks at the position, or going bargain shopping in FA, but being aggressive in going after a top tier FA or in the trade market, like they're Cooper trade.

But, that's speculation on top of speculation.
I think you're right. I'm just saying that, Dallas getting players who are just as good as Cooper and Gallup (both have had an 1100+ yard season in the last 3 seasons) is not a shoe-in. Lamb would likely be the guy.

I just don't buy that a 20% target share is as good as it gets for Lamb after Year 2.
Not quite the same thing but Darnell Mooney in year 2 just usurped perennial target hog and true WR1 (with a target share to support it) Allen Robinson in year 2

Tee Higgins competes with a far better WR1 than anyone in Dallas and a WR3 similar to Gallup (Boyd was hovering in the low to mid 20s until just this year when Chase and Higgins took over) and posted a 24%+ target share

I wouldn't say Waddle's competition of Parker (21-22% target share like Cooper) and Gesicki (18-19% like Gallup) is much over a pushover and he usurped them as a rookie


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