Buy Low/Sell High

[Pullo Vision]

Jaguars will be a top 5 rushing team in 2021
Jaguars will finish 11-6 and make the playoffs

How are these not in the Plant Your Flag thread?

Buy Low: Noah Fant, Baker Mayfield, Julio Jones, Courtland Sutton, Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, Zack Moss, Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, Gus Edwards

Sell High: Mike Gesicki, Ceedee Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Myles Gaskin, Gabriel Davis, Kyler Murray, Raheem Mostert

Buy High: Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, D'Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, Robert Woods

Sell Low: Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Robby Anderson, Robert Tonyan, Juju, Wentz, David Johnson

Huh.
Fant/Tonyan- If teams miss out on the top 3, people seem to be targeting these TEs as the top of the next tier. If you're not getting Kelce/Waller/Kittle, there's no point targeting a high floor TE when there's so many of them. If you're gunning for upside, they seem to be good options.

I can see calling Tonyan a sell, but his value compared to his 2020 production doesn't suggest to me he'd be classified a sell low.

Why would juju be a sell low? Shouldn't you at least wait to see where he lands next offseason?

I feel like an idiot saying this cuz I feel like im missing something....But this post just makes no sense to me. Like since when are Henry and Cook buy lows? they both just came off the best seasons of their careers, their value has never been higher lol.

Recent production isn't the sole valuation determinant. RBs coming off a series of seasons of heavy workloads limits teams that could be interested. Depending on the team/league, a limited market combined with an excessive focus on age/workload could push their values very low. That's how I interpreted it, any way.

[StripesOfKC]

Jaguars will be a top 5 rushing team in 2021
Jaguars will finish 11-6 and make the playoffs

How are these not in the Plant Your Flag thread?

Buy Low: Noah Fant, Baker Mayfield, Julio Jones, Courtland Sutton, Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, Zack Moss, Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, Gus Edwards

Sell High: Mike Gesicki, Ceedee Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Myles Gaskin, Gabriel Davis, Kyler Murray, Raheem Mostert

Buy High: Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, D'Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, Robert Woods

Sell Low: Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Robby Anderson, Robert Tonyan, Juju, Wentz, David Johnson

Huh.
Fant/Tonyan- If teams miss out on the top 3, people seem to be targeting these TEs as the top of the next tier. If you're not getting Kelce/Waller/Kittle, there's no point targeting a high floor TE when there's so many of them. If you're gunning for upside, they seem to be good options.

I can see calling Tonyan a sell, but his value compared to his 2020 production doesn't suggest to me he'd be classified a sell low.

Why would juju be a sell low? Shouldn't you at least wait to see where he lands next offseason?

I feel like an idiot saying this cuz I feel like im missing something....But this post just makes no sense to me. Like since when are Henry and Cook buy lows? they both just came off the best seasons of their careers, their value has never been higher lol.

Recent production isn't the sole valuation determinant. RBs coming off a series of seasons of heavy workloads limits teams that could be interested. Depending on the team/league, a limited market combined with an excessive focus on age/workload could push their values very low. That's how I interpreted it, any way.

And I believe Fant is an elite talent on those guys' level. I prefer talent over situation

And Tonyan may have been a sell high end of season but his value has been tanked enough by Rodgers fears and his absurd TE rate that he isn't fetching nearly what he would have then

And Juju is a sell low because he isn't particularly good and I don't really want him on my team regardless of where he lands

[Sriracha]

And I believe Fant is an elite talent on those guys' level. I prefer talent over situation

And Tonyan may have been a sell high end of season but his value has been tanked enough by Rodgers fears and his absurd TE rate that he isn't fetching nearly what he would have then

Agreed, and the idea that Fant and Tonyan are remotely comparable Dynasty assets is offensive to my sensibilities.

[Ice]

And I believe Fant is an elite talent on those guys' level. I prefer talent over situation

And Tonyan may have been a sell high end of season but his value has been tanked enough by Rodgers fears and his absurd TE rate that he isn't fetching nearly what he would have then

Agreed, and the idea that Fant and Tonyan are remotely comparable Dynasty assets is offensive to my sensibilities.

Own Fant / Gesicki already so I sold Tonyan a couple of days ago for a 2022 2nd rounder.

Seemed like fair value, not really high or low, given I needed that roster spot.

[Pullo Vision]

Buy Low: Noah Fant, Baker Mayfield, Julio Jones, Courtland Sutton, Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, Zack Moss, Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, Gus Edwards

Sell High: Mike Gesicki, Ceedee Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Myles Gaskin, Gabriel Davis, Kyler Murray, Raheem Mostert

Buy High: Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, D'Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, Robert Woods

Sell Low: Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Robby Anderson, Robert Tonyan, Juju, Wentz, David Johnson

Huh.
Fant/Tonyan- If teams miss out on the top 3, people seem to be targeting these TEs as the top of the next tier. If you're not getting Kelce/Waller/Kittle, there's no point targeting a high floor TE when there's so many of them. If you're gunning for upside, they seem to be good options.

I can see calling Tonyan a sell, but his value compared to his 2020 production doesn't suggest to me he'd be classified a sell low.

Why would juju be a sell low? Shouldn't you at least wait to see where he lands next offseason?

And I believe Fant is an elite talent on those guys' level. I prefer talent over situation

And Tonyan may have been a sell high end of season but his value has been tanked enough by Rodgers fears and his absurd TE rate that he isn't fetching nearly what he would have then

And Juju is a sell low because he isn't particularly good and I don't really want him on my team regardless of where he lands

I've seen Fant love (and him sold for some pretty pennies) so can understand seeing him as a talent in a bad situation. I can see believing Tonyan is a decent talent in a good situation last who risks having a much lesser QB this year.

The juju hate still throws me. Do you think he's a starting NFL WR? I'll usually buy any player if the value is low/cheap enough. Would you never consider trading for him?

[FantasyFreak]

Lamb being a top 3 Dynasty WR (DLF) through 2 years is a sell high to me. For example, Waddle and Mooney for Lamb, and a lot of people are saying Lamb in the Trade Advice forum. Through 2 years, Lamb has been a nice WR2, with Coop drawing coverage, and this year Gallup missed 8 games and Coop played hurt most of the year, and missed some time too. He has had 2 years to assert himself more, and hasn't, to the level of the players in that range. Waddle plus a guy who basically scored the same as him in his 2nd year (Mooney) is a nice cash out IMO. Waddle did more in spite of a less than savoury QB situation in comparison to Ceedee. I have my doubts Lamb ever makes good on his hype as a top 3 guy.

[Cameron Giles]

Lamb being a top 3 Dynasty WR (DLF) through 2 years is a sell high to me. For example, Waddle and Mooney for Lamb, and a lot of people are saying Lamb in the Trade Advice forum. Through 2 years, Lamb has been a nice WR2, with Coop drawing coverage, and this year Gallup missed 8 games and Coop played hurt most of the year, and missed some time too. He has had 2 years to assert himself more, and hasn't, to the level of the players in that range. Waddle plus a guy who basically scored the same as him in his 2nd year (Mooney) is a nice cash out IMO. Waddle did more in spite of a less than savoury QB situation in comparison to Ceedee. I have my doubts Lamb ever makes good on his hype as a top 3 guy.

I'd rather have Lamb. A year younger + better talent + QB stability, that Mooney and Waddle do not have.

Hitting 79/1102/6 in 16 games in your second year is not bad at all. I'd be open to trading him, but it'd have to be for something more enticing than that.

[StripesOfKC]

Lamb being a top 3 Dynasty WR (DLF) through 2 years is a sell high to me. For example, Waddle and Mooney for Lamb, and a lot of people are saying Lamb in the Trade Advice forum. Through 2 years, Lamb has been a nice WR2, with Coop drawing coverage, and this year Gallup missed 8 games and Coop played hurt most of the year, and missed some time too. He has had 2 years to assert himself more, and hasn't, to the level of the players in that range. Waddle plus a guy who basically scored the same as him in his 2nd year (Mooney) is a nice cash out IMO. Waddle did more in spite of a less than savoury QB situation in comparison to Ceedee. I have my doubts Lamb ever makes good on his hype as a top 3 guy.

I'd rather have Lamb. A year younger + better talent + QB stability, that Mooney and Waddle do not have.

Hitting 79/1102/6 in 16 games in your second year is not bad at all. I'd be open to trading him, but it'd have to be for something more enticing than that.

Better talent lol

How many years does someone like Tee Higgins have to keep outproducing Lamb before the "talent" excuse runs out

[Cameron Giles]

Lamb being a top 3 Dynasty WR (DLF) through 2 years is a sell high to me. For example, Waddle and Mooney for Lamb, and a lot of people are saying Lamb in the Trade Advice forum. Through 2 years, Lamb has been a nice WR2, with Coop drawing coverage, and this year Gallup missed 8 games and Coop played hurt most of the year, and missed some time too. He has had 2 years to assert himself more, and hasn't, to the level of the players in that range. Waddle plus a guy who basically scored the same as him in his 2nd year (Mooney) is a nice cash out IMO. Waddle did more in spite of a less than savoury QB situation in comparison to Ceedee. I have my doubts Lamb ever makes good on his hype as a top 3 guy.

I'd rather have Lamb. A year younger + better talent + QB stability, that Mooney and Waddle do not have.

Hitting 79/1102/6 in 16 games in your second year is not bad at all. I'd be open to trading him, but it'd have to be for something more enticing than that.

Better talent lol

How many years does someone like Tee Higgins have to keep outproducing Lamb before the "talent" excuse runs out

Higgins wasn't a part of the discussion. But, I'd take Lamb over Higgins as well, because Lamb will likely be the undisputed #1 at some point (and basically was this season). There's really no path for Higgins overtaking Chase. So, a little less upside long-term to me.

[StripesOfKC]

I'd rather have Lamb. A year younger + better talent + QB stability, that Mooney and Waddle do not have.

Hitting 79/1102/6 in 16 games in your second year is not bad at all. I'd be open to trading him, but it'd have to be for something more enticing than that.

Better talent lol

How many years does someone like Tee Higgins have to keep outproducing Lamb before the "talent" excuse runs out

Higgins wasn't a part of the discussion. But, I'd take Lamb over Higgins as well, because Lamb will likely be the undisputed #1 at some point (and basically was this season). There's really no path for Higgins overtaking Chase. So, a little less upside long-term to me.

Higgins was just the first example that came to mind of guys who outperform Lamb but don't get the top 5 dynasty WR treatment

Waddle just had a better rookie year than Lamb after being thought of by the NFL as a better prospect

Production wise it is not at all clear that Lamb is a better talent than a bunch of guys valued below him

[FantasyFreak]

Lamb being a top 3 Dynasty WR (DLF) through 2 years is a sell high to me. For example, Waddle and Mooney for Lamb, and a lot of people are saying Lamb in the Trade Advice forum. Through 2 years, Lamb has been a nice WR2, with Coop drawing coverage, and this year Gallup missed 8 games and Coop played hurt most of the year, and missed some time too. He has had 2 years to assert himself more, and hasn't, to the level of the players in that range. Waddle plus a guy who basically scored the same as him in his 2nd year (Mooney) is a nice cash out IMO. Waddle did more in spite of a less than savoury QB situation in comparison to Ceedee. I have my doubts Lamb ever makes good on his hype as a top 3 guy.

I'd rather have Lamb. A year younger + better talent + QB stability, that Mooney and Waddle do not have.

Hitting 79/1102/6 in 16 games in your second year is not bad at all. I'd be open to trading him, but it'd have to be for something more enticing than that.

More enticing than a guy who outproduced him as a rookie, plus a guy in his 2nd year who had 81/1055/4 in his 2nd year? I mean, Waddle has shown he can do it with a lesser QB, and did more than Lamb has done to this point. Not sure what makes Lamb a better talent. Waddle was drafted with a high first, and broke the rookie receptions record. I'd take the free Mooney myself. As I said, I don't think Lamb ever hits a higher value point than he has right now. His numbers through 2 years are easily replaceable, and he hasn't had to be the focus of a secondaries attention yet, game in game out.

[StripesOfKC]

Lamb being a top 3 Dynasty WR (DLF) through 2 years is a sell high to me. For example, Waddle and Mooney for Lamb, and a lot of people are saying Lamb in the Trade Advice forum. Through 2 years, Lamb has been a nice WR2, with Coop drawing coverage, and this year Gallup missed 8 games and Coop played hurt most of the year, and missed some time too. He has had 2 years to assert himself more, and hasn't, to the level of the players in that range. Waddle plus a guy who basically scored the same as him in his 2nd year (Mooney) is a nice cash out IMO. Waddle did more in spite of a less than savoury QB situation in comparison to Ceedee. I have my doubts Lamb ever makes good on his hype as a top 3 guy.

I'd rather have Lamb. A year younger + better talent + QB stability, that Mooney and Waddle do not have.

Hitting 79/1102/6 in 16 games in your second year is not bad at all. I'd be open to trading him, but it'd have to be for something more enticing than that.

More enticing than a guy who outproduced him as a rookie, plus a guy in his 2nd year who had 81/1055/4 in his 2nd year? I mean, Waddle has shown he can do it with a lesser QB, and did more than Lamb has done to this point. Not sure what makes Lamb a better talent. Waddle was drafted with a high first, and broke the rookie receptions record. I'd take the free Mooney myself. As I said, I don't think Lamb ever hits a higher value point than he has right now. His numbers through 2 years are easily replaceable, and he hasn't had to be the focus of a secondaries attention yet, game in game out.

For me it's more that his target share is not passing the low 20s

As a relatively sticky stat telling of a WR's ability to earn targets I see that as extremely telling of his ability to be a WR1 the way AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, etc are

[Cameron Giles]

More enticing than a guy who outproduced him as a rookie, plus a guy in his 2nd year who had 81/1055/4 in his 2nd year? I mean, Waddle has shown he can do it with a lesser QB, and did more than Lamb has done to this point. Not sure what makes Lamb a better talent. Waddle was drafted with a high first, and broke the rookie receptions record. I'd take the free Mooney myself. As I said, I don't think Lamb ever hits a higher value point than he has right now. His numbers through 2 years are easily replaceable, and he hasn't had to be the focus of a secondaries attention yet, game in game out.

Dallas had three players see 100+ targets this season and that's with Gallup missing time. Waddle didn't have much in the way of a high target share with Parker missing so much time. Not to take away anything from Waddle, because he was good, but it's clearly two different situations.

You're talking about sell highs, I'd argue that Mooney is one as well. If I could attach him with another WR to get Lamb, I'd be ecstatic. Similar situation as Waddle, where there wasn't much in the way of targets with Robinson's role decreasing inexplicably.

I absolutely do think Lamb can hit a higher value point, because he hasn't dominated targets like the players you've mentioned yet.

Target Share this season:

Lamb - 20.4 (18% last year)
Waddle - 24.8
Mooney - 26.7

There is absolutely room to grow for Lamb.

[murphysxm]

Is it too early to call Lamb the new Watkins. I absolutely see the potential, but the production doesn’t match the ranking.

[Cameron Giles]

As a relatively sticky stat telling of a WR's ability to earn targets I see that as extremely telling of his ability to be a WR1 the way AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, etc are

While earning targets is somewhat of a skill, you still have to acknowledge the players they play with which absolutely impacts target share. Dallas has a lot more players to feed with Cooper, Gallup, Schultz, than Minnesota or Tennessee does in the passing game, which is why Lamb's target share has never been that high.