Buy Low/Sell High

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:44 pm

mild wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:41 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:10 pm After seeing Akers do OK tonight, I am looking to acquire Darrell Henderson. I think his price will drop, and people may be looking to cash out. What I've seen over the last 2 years, any RB can produce in this system, with moderate talent, and I believe he has that. FWIW, I'd trade for Akers if the price was right, but I have a feeling he's going to be overvalued like he was last off season (not by as much, but I feel most will want an overpay). I am not confident in Akers ability to stay healthy, never was before his achilles. Henderson doesn't stay on the field himself, but part of what will drop his price, too. I want the cheaper option in this backfield, because the Rams system produces at the position, whoever is there. I think they probably run a committee next year, hot hand approach, but probably a 60/40 type split in Akers favour to start out.
Freak, I'm confused - weren't they borderline trying to get -away- from D-Hendo this season? Seemed like they couldn't wait for Sony to take over from him and they don't think he can be "the guy" on his own workload-wise (hence making the trade).

I find it hard to believe they'll re-sign Hendo beyond 2022 when his contract expires. Is this more of a contender hedge move for next year only?
Yeah, I think he will be fairly cheap. He produced when healthy the first half of the year. I am not huge believer in Akers, or his ability to stay healthy either. I just find RB depth is key late in the year, and it's good to have guys that you might be able to plug in to cover bye's and injuries. I don't think they will re-sign Henderson either, but he'll certainly land a gig after next year. I think you might be able to get him by a song, seeing how gaga people are about Akers already, after 22 carries for just 58 yards in 2 games, and I expect Akers hype to pick up just like it did last off season. Akers was similar to Miles Sanders to me, in that the hype was going to outweigh the production. Both got to first round startup prices after their rookie year, and now that Akers is back, I can already see the hype building again throughout the summer. All that will lead to a value drop for Henderson, and that's when I will look to grab him.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:09 pm

dondickenson wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:02 am On teams where I have sold out future picks to win now, this is the time(and for the next 7-8 months) where I start to make an absolute killing buying up older win now pieces. Not all older guys are buys though, as some maintain a lot more value than others at the same age and same likely production next few years, usually based on contrived narrative. Here are my targets by position that should come cheap compared to the potential they offer in 1-3 year production window:

QB
Brady 44
Rodgers 38
Wilson 33
Cousins 33
Ryan 36

RB
Henry 28
Hunt 26
MG III 28

WR
Ridley 27
ARob 29
Hopkins 29
Evans 28
Thomas 28
Thielen 31
Cooks 28

TE
Ertz 31
Gronk 32
Henry 27

I think these guys are mostly gonna go for bargain basement prices. A few might not still
In your league like ARodg Henry Evans, but across the board they will be cheap on average. I’m also throwing out feelers on other older RBs like Kamara and CMC to see if they can be bought at a discount, just don’t see it as much so didn’t list them.
I am getting Dez Bryant type career arc vibes with A Rob. Was never a great route runner, he's not fast, and going on 29, he looks like he might be fading. I could be wrong, but I think he might be done as a WR1 type player on a team.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby DJB » Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:11 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:09 pm
dondickenson wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:02 am On teams where I have sold out future picks to win now, this is the time(and for the next 7-8 months) where I start to make an absolute killing buying up older win now pieces. Not all older guys are buys though, as some maintain a lot more value than others at the same age and same likely production next few years, usually based on contrived narrative. Here are my targets by position that should come cheap compared to the potential they offer in 1-3 year production window:

QB
Brady 44
Rodgers 38
Wilson 33
Cousins 33
Ryan 36

RB
Henry 28
Hunt 26
MG III 28

WR
Ridley 27
ARob 29
Hopkins 29
Evans 28
Thomas 28
Thielen 31
Cooks 28

TE
Ertz 31
Gronk 32
Henry 27

I think these guys are mostly gonna go for bargain basement prices. A few might not still
In your league like ARodg Henry Evans, but across the board they will be cheap on average. I’m also throwing out feelers on other older RBs like Kamara and CMC to see if they can be bought at a discount, just don’t see it as much so didn’t list them.
I am getting Dez Bryant type career arc vibes with A Rob. Was never a great route runner, he's not fast, and going on 29, he looks like he might be fading. I could be wrong, but I think he might be done as a WR1 type player on a team.
A Rob's give a heck meter also looks broken. If he leaves Chi and goes somewhere with a QB or good offense, hopefully we see him rejuvenated.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby killer_of_giants » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:17 am

yeah i think dislike for the situation and spite for the tag played a big part in robinson's disinterest. but who knows!

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Buy low candidates?

Postby fourdeans » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:05 am

Who are some good buy low candidates during the offseason?

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:14 am

QB: Lamar Jackson

RB: Travis Etienne, Gus Edwards, Kareem Hunt, CMC (contenders only)

WR: Michael Thomas, Rashod Bateman (IDK if anyone's selling low though), Michael Gallup, DK Metcalf, Christian Kirk, Hollywood Brown, Will Fuller (really really low though), Cedrick Wilson (again very low), Brandin Cooks (always cheap)

TE: Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, David Njoku (dart throw-cheap)

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby CGW » Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:13 pm

QB Options
Wilson - Seattle's offensive scheme is a dinosaur. If Wilson moves on, it's likely to a better situation of his own choosing.
Lawrence, Z Wilson - if you believe in these rookies still, their prices seem reasonable compared to where they were initially projected.
Watson - probably not really available at low prices as pretty much any owner who has him now expects him back in the near future, but worth checking.
Carr - always undervalued.
Cousins - always undervalued.

RB Options
ETN - dont really like to buy rb in the offseason, but his injury may have reduced his price enough to make it worth it.
Kamara - owners in panic mode?

WR Options
DK, Hill, Godwin, Claypool, Sutton, Jeudy, Juju, Gallup
For contenders only - Evans, Allen, Robinson(hard to even type his name)

TE Options
Hockenson
Logan Thomas (and Bates)
Irv Smith
Last edited by CGW on Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby murphysxm » Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:26 pm

QB
Wentz, he is going to get another year, with an off season and is basically free
Baker, based on how cheap he will be and health was absolutely part of his struggles

RB
James Robinson, don't buy ETN as highly as others and Akers gives hope
Zeke, he is not as dead as this forum portrays
Gordon, see note on Zeke above

WR
Allen Robinson, he can't do worse and will be cheap
Tee Higgins, maybe not "low" but he is worth more to me than others seem to feel
AJB, he will never be cheaper

TE
Yeah, who cares
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby Beer Makes Me Smile » Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:42 am

QB: TLaw, Wentz, Lamar
RB: Barkley and CMC for a contender, Josh Jacobs
WR: ARob, JuJu, Sutton, AJB, Michael Thomas, Golladay, McLaurin.
TE: Njoku, Irv Smith. Waller

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby CGW » Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:53 am

I've now seen AJB listed as a buy low several times now. As an owner, I guess I dont feel like I'd even consider selling him for less than top 5 WR prices. His ADP is top 5. He may be a buy high, as I do have him as my WR3, but has his value dropped in your leagues?

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:02 am

CGW wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:53 am I've now seen AJB listed as a buy low several times now. As an owner, I guess I dont feel like I'd even consider selling him for less than top 5 WR prices. His ADP is top 5. He may be a buy high, as I do have him as my WR3, but has his value dropped in your leagues?
I'm thinking the same thing. I tried to buy him during the injury plagued season, but he bounced back with a vengeance. Doubt anyone is truly selling "low" right now anymore. You'd have to pay a top pick + player minimum. I guess that's "low" in the grand scheme of things though.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
'24: (4) 1sts, 2nd, (2) 3rds, 4th
'25: (2) 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby Beer Makes Me Smile » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:09 am

CGW wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:53 am I've now seen AJB listed as a buy low several times now. As an owner, I guess I dont feel like I'd even consider selling him for less than top 5 WR prices. His ADP is top 5. He may be a buy high, as I do have him as my WR3, but has his value dropped in your leagues?
Lower this off season than it was last is my reasoning.

There is a post in here about someone getting him for 1.07, a projected late 23.1 and a couple future seconds. To me that is low

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby Dynasty_Analyst » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:30 am

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Mathew Stafford, Russel Wilson- all reduced value to age and I think they got some years left
RB: Akers, Dobbins, ETN I think are all due for major value bumps in the summer buying now you could sell for a profit later.
WR: Waddle, Kupp, M. Brown are a few guys I think going to low.
TE: Tough one I think most are overvalued at this point .
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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby murphysxm » Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:18 pm

Beer Makes Me Smile wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:09 am

Lower this off season than it was last is my reasoning.
Agree with this take. I still see stud , others appear to be poking holes in his armor
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Buy low candidates?

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:32 pm

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:30 am QB: Aaron Rodgers, Mathew Stafford, Russel Wilson- all reduced value to age and I think they got some years left
RB: Akers, Dobbins, ETN I think are all due for major value bumps in the summer buying now you could sell for a profit later.
WR: Waddle, Kupp, M. Brown are a few guys I think going to low.
TE: Tough one I think most are overvalued at this point .
Akers is a buy low at top 5 RB prices? Agree on Russ, but I can't see how Akers is a buy low, unless people just don't realize where he's being valued right now by most.

Where are you seeing Kupp go right now? I find it hard to believe anyone who has him is selling cheap after that year. I took this thread as trading for a guy. In other words, startups aren't involved, but I could be wrong.
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