Buy Low/Sell High

[Ice]

I'm in talks to move Hopkins for Evans, Crowder, and Hunter Henry at the moment if that's a gauge.

I agree Marlon Mack is a good Buy Low candidate.

Not a chance in Hades I would sell Hopkins for that. He is much better than Evans. Last year he was a full 7 points better on a per game average.

What if you compare their 2016 seasons? Evans has the talent has been relatively on par with Hopkins outside of last year. I dont think the gap is that huge. I do like Hopkins QB situation a lot more but i dont think that offer is absurd. I think its actually pretty solid.

To each is own. Evans is a good player but he is not in Hopkins tier. Not close IMO.

Evans has been above 74 receptions once. He was a volume WR last year but that team is changing a bit. Hopkins has been above 76 the last 4 years with horrid QB play. Hopkins never even takes a snap off. 111 and 96 in two of those years.

I see Evans career tracking closer to a Dez Bryant type. Very good but...

[UATahoe]

I agree Marlon Mack is a good Buy Low candidate.

Not a chance in Hades I would sell Hopkins for that. He is much better than Evans. Last year he was a full 7 points better on a per game average.

What if you compare their 2016 seasons? Evans has the talent has been relatively on par with Hopkins outside of last year. I dont think the gap is that huge. I do like Hopkins QB situation a lot more but i dont think that offer is absurd. I think its actually pretty solid.

To each is own. Evans is a good player but he is not in Hopkins tier. Not close IMO.

Evans has been above 74 receptions once. He was a volume WR last year but that team is changing a bit. Hopkins has been above 76 the last 4 years with horrid QB play. Hopkins never even takes a snap off. 111 and 96 in two of those years.

I see Evans career tracking closer to a Dez Bryant type. Very good but...

Completely agree Hopkins is better. Without a doubt, just dont see the gap being giant. If they were in the same tier we wouldnt be discussing additional pieces. I personally like Crowder and believe Henry will be a nice weapon at TE. To me the pieces are close.

[Ice]

What if you compare their 2016 seasons? Evans has the talent has been relatively on par with Hopkins outside of last year. I dont think the gap is that huge. I do like Hopkins QB situation a lot more but i dont think that offer is absurd. I think its actually pretty solid.

To each is own. Evans is a good player but he is not in Hopkins tier. Not close IMO.

Evans has been above 74 receptions once. He was a volume WR last year but that team is changing a bit. Hopkins has been above 76 the last 4 years with horrid QB play. Hopkins never even takes a snap off. 111 and 96 in two of those years.

I see Evans career tracking closer to a Dez Bryant type. Very good but...

Completely agree Hopkins is better. Without a doubt, just dont see the gap being giant. If they were in the same tier we wouldnt be discussing additional pieces. I personally like Crowder and believe Henry will be a nice weapon at TE. To me the pieces are close.

The problem is the guys you are talking about are depth types with an occasional start. I don't take 4-7 points weekly out of my lineup for that.... EVER. Do those other pieces add 4-9 weekly points to your Line up? Answers to those questions are key components to look at when considering a trade. The two you are discussing are pretty easy adds to Dynasty teams.

[UATahoe]

To each is own. Evans is a good player but he is not in Hopkins tier. Not close IMO.

Evans has been above 74 receptions once. He was a volume WR last year but that team is changing a bit. Hopkins has been above 76 the last 4 years with horrid QB play. Hopkins never even takes a snap off. 111 and 96 in two of those years.

I see Evans career tracking closer to a Dez Bryant type. Very good but...

Completely agree Hopkins is better. Without a doubt, just dont see the gap being giant. If they were in the same tier we wouldnt be discussing additional pieces. I personally like Crowder and believe Henry will be a nice weapon at TE. To me the pieces are close.

The problem is the guys you are talking about are depth types with an occasional start. I don't take 4-7 points weekly out of my lineup for that.... EVER. Do those other pieces add 4-9 weekly points to your Line up? Answers to those questions are key components to look at when considering a trade. The two you are discussing are pretty easy adds to Dynasty teams.

Obviously Hunter doesnt help this year but i woudnt really consider him a depth guy. I would consider him as a strong starter come 2019. And its all dependent on how many WR's you start and what your current roster looks like. Crowder to me is a solid WR3 starter and could be an upgrade depending on the roster makeup. That and i wouldnt be as definitive that Hopkins will outscore Evans by 4-7 points every week based off of last years stats alone. Agree to disagree though man, wasnt trying to derail the original discussion

[Ice]

Good Luck,

If I was the other guy I would be ecstatic.

Good luck with your volume trade, trading away the best piece in the deal rarely pays off.

[millworkguy]

Not sure about your scoring but crowder averaged over 12 points per game last year. 66 / 925 / 5 td,
So yeah he adds more then 9 ppl, and is now in his 4th year at 25 years old

Btw, what is the size of his league? My opinion of the trade would vary based on 8 10 12 16 or 32 teams single player pool.

[Ice]

Not sure about your scoring but crowder averaged over 12 points per game last year. 66 / 925 / 5 td,
So yeah he adds more then 9 ppl, and is now in his 4th year at 25 years old

Btw, what is the size of his league? My opinion of the trade would vary based on 8 10 12 16 or 32 teams single player pool.

Maybe if he left that starter slot blank he did.

Crowder had 6 single digit scoring games with one no start in addition.

Sadly 5 of those games were under 7 POINTS.. His few good games pushed him to a 32nd WR ranking overall. Sorry but your math doesn't work.

If owner at least got a legit upside play like a C. Hogan, I might be on board but getting a high risk player with a very conservative QB known for avoiding WR'2s on his own team is closer to the waiver wire than a roster player.

[mullmania]

Evans and Hopkins are similar in that they were both top dynasty WRs who might have regressed in different years but I don't think their situations are the same that caused the regression.

Houston in 2016 was the 29th passing offense in the NFL. Going for 3,176 yards.

They bumped up to 21st in 2017 going for 3,278 yards. (Not a huge increase in yards but Watson and other QB play seemed to stabilize Hopkins)


In 2016 Tampa was the 16th ranked passing offense going for 3,926 yards

In 2017 Tampa was the 4th ranked passing offense going for 4,366 yards


My basic point was in a year that Tampa was a top 4 passing offense Mike Evans production didn't seem to mimic the teams rise.

[Pullo Vision]

If owner at least got a legit upside play like a C. Hogan, I might be on board but getting a high risk player with a very conservative QB known for avoiding WR'2s on his own team is closer to the waiver wire than a roster player.

Interesting angle. If you don't think Crowder benefits, who do you think will be the primary WR getting all those targets? Sounds like you'd think he's a buy low.

[mullmania]

Jamison Crowder-Buy low

I'd take him over Hogan in PPR all day long myself

[UATahoe]

Honestly baffled how swapping out Crowder for Hogan closes the gap for you.

I definitely think Crowder is a great buy low. Especially with Alex Smith and his propensity to throw to his slot receiver.

[millworkguy]

Not sure about your scoring but crowder averaged over 12 points per game last year. 66 / 925 / 5 td,
So yeah he adds more then 9 ppl, and is now in his 4th year at 25 years old

Btw, what is the size of his league? My opinion of the trade would vary based on 8 10 12 16 or 32 teams single player pool.

Maybe if he left that starter slot blank he did.

Crowder had 6 single digit scoring games with one no start in addition.

Sadly 5 of those games were under 7 POINTS.. His few good games pushed him to a 32nd WR ranking overall. Sorry but your math doesn't work.

If owner at least got a legit upside play like a C. Hogan, I might be on board but getting a high risk player with a very conservative QB known for avoiding WR'2s on his own team is closer to the waiver wire than a roster player.

Sorry read projected 2018 numbers and not 2017 actual numbers, still averaged over 10 ppg and had 6 games over 10 points (all of which in the final 9 games he played)
Wr32 is a wr2 in a 16 team league

How is a 29 year Hogan more scene as having more upside, his best season was 38/680/4 on 54 targets, crowder has 200 targets in his last 2 years.

[Ice]

Honestly baffled how swapping out Crowder for Hogan closes the gap for you.

I definitely think Crowder is a great buy low. Especially with Alex Smith and his propensity to throw to his slot receiver.

How you evaluate players is certainly up to you and I am not trying to be difficult here but I will say I have 30 years of experience and study teams, their GM moves, and players at many levels.

For those inquiring minds:

Here are the early findings about these two players. Hogan should be WR1 for the Patriots. I suspect he will lead the team in targets outside of Gronk.

While there is some truth that Smith does like to throw to his slot WR, certainly more than his Outside WR2, I would study up on the Redskins if I were you.

Doctson is WR1
Crowder is WR2
Richardson sure looks like the Slot WR for this year.

Do you realize the Redskins signed Richardson to a 40 million dollar contract? He also received a 10 million dollar signing bonus.

If you want to dive into Hogan a bit more look at his first 8 games before he got hurt. Even with two poor games he was the 10th ranked WR in the league. Further, the Pats didn't even blink worrying about changes when they traded away Cooks. (WHY) Hogan was a late bloomer to football and his skill set has been getting better every year on film.

The situations heavily favors Hogan here. The Pats are not stupid. When one studies the film between Cooks and Hogan it provides insight as to how these two played in the Pat's system.

I didn't just throw out Hogan there for no reason. That was by design. Hogan is one of the top under the radar WR in the league today.

Hogan had 54 Targets in his first 8 games last year. Cooks also had 54 targets in those game and while Cooks had 1.8 More TOTAL points over that span Hogan outscored him more games over that span.

Hope this helps!

[Pet_Smith]

Last year I was trying hard to buy Hopkins as his ADP had dropped massively following one down year.

Beginning of last year, and 2016 Evans was the number 2 ranked dynasty player in PPR behind only OBJ. Now he's dropped to 11. If you like him as a player I have no issues with anyone trading for him, especially if your getting pieces back. Crowder and Henry the difference between 3 and 11? possibly. Believe in Evans? Then your definitely winning that trade so go for it - I'd say he is very much similar to Nuk last year when his ADP had dropped (ADP's all from Mizelle).

Personally, I'd be keeping Nuk as I've never thought Evans was a true stud/elite, but that's just me and I'm wrong about plenty of things.

[motherlode]

Richardson sure looks like the Slot WR for this year.

I have read nothing anywhere that says anyone but Crowder will be the slot WR in Washington this year. Perhaps im mistaken, but i thought Richardson's main skill set was as an outside/deep threat WR. Slot WR was not a role he had in Seattle (Baldwin mans the slot there) so im not sure why he would all of a sudden start playing there in Washington.

Hogan had 54 Targets in his first 8 games last year.

You dont think that had anything to do with Tom Bradys 150 target a season binkie Julian Edelman not playing a snap in the regular season last year? Using last year to predict this year just seems disingenuous. Why not base this years production on 2016 , when Hogan had 38 receptions for 700 yards and 4 TD with a healthy Edelman?

I get that Edelman is likely facing a suspension, but what evidence is there that as soon as the suspension is over, the Patriots offense doesnt go back to business as usual, which is Brady peppering Edelman and Gronk with 250-280 targets a year and then spreading the rest around to a cast of thouands?

Crowder has warts to be sure, and did not have a great first half of 2017, but unless i was an Edelman owner in desperate need of a 4 week suspension fill in, or if i thought there was some chance i could acquire Hogan, hope he blows up in week1 thru 4 and then flip him (although i doubt anyone is so gullible as to trade anything of substance for a 4 week wonder on the eve of Edelman being reactivated) im taking Crowder everytime.