Buy Low/Sell High

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
StripesOfKC
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby StripesOfKC » Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:02 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:41 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:18 pm Buy Low: Baker Mayfield

He was a way better real life QB than fantasy one, gets a second year in the system and I don't see any way the Browns can run as much as they did last year for much longer

I think something like a QB 11 finish is coming next year and will boost his stock substantially
I think that would make his fantasy stock one of the most volatile I've seen for a QB. I tend to agree though. He's a good QB, prove-it contract year, and a Browns team that is finally coming around.

Loved rooting for him as a rookie even if it meant him giving Baltimore a hard time 2x a year for many years to come.

Back to Baker, I think I've always had him ranked higher than consensus. I could easily see his value back in QB1 range.

Quick: Baker or Watson?
In 1QB it's definitely Watson because the position is replaceable and it's worth the risk to swing for the fences

In SF--especially deep SF--it's more arguable and I wouldn't fault someone for going Baker because losing a QB can end a season. I'd still lean to Watson if you aren't a full on contender though

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Mjvb5 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:42 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:02 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:41 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:18 pm Buy Low: Baker Mayfield

He was a way better real life QB than fantasy one, gets a second year in the system and I don't see any way the Browns can run as much as they did last year for much longer

I think something like a QB 11 finish is coming next year and will boost his stock substantially
I think that would make his fantasy stock one of the most volatile I've seen for a QB. I tend to agree though. He's a good QB, prove-it contract year, and a Browns team that is finally coming around.

Loved rooting for him as a rookie even if it meant him giving Baltimore a hard time 2x a year for many years to come.

Back to Baker, I think I've always had him ranked higher than consensus. I could easily see his value back in QB1 range.

Quick: Baker or Watson?
In 1QB it's definitely Watson because the position is replaceable and it's worth the risk to swing for the fences

In SF--especially deep SF--it's more arguable and I wouldn't fault someone for going Baker because losing a QB can end a season. I'd still lean to Watson if you aren't a full on contender though
Agree with this, competing sf team gimme baker. It's to hard to replace a safe competent young qb without hurting a lineup, rebuild I'll take the fence swing on Watson and hope he comes back this or next year

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:56 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:02 pm
broncohead wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:57 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:48 am After a nice break, I'm finally back and digging into 2021 analysis. Upon doing so, one thing stood out to me glaringly. Deandre Swift is THE sell high currently.

DLF March Startup ADP has him at 1.6 overall (rb6). I love the player, but he's on a historically bad franchise for RB opportunity. With Williams and Kerryon in the mix, I just don't see how he ever gets enough work to justify that cost.
See any recent trades involving Swift? Just curious as I may consider moving him in one league if the price is right.
I mean Kerryon is a literal zero and I don't give two shits about what Jahvid Best and Shawn Bryson did years and uears ago for Lions teams with players that have mostly been out of the league for years or see how it means Swift can't be good any more than Dorial Green Beckham and Justin Hunter busting means AJ Brown can't be good

That said 1.6 is still a little high
Historical data is just that, but when a team has only had 3 players barely crack 1k in 22 years (worst in the league) it's notable, esp when that team looks to be significantly worse offensively in 2021.

Either way, we agree 1.6 is too high.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:29 pm

broncohead wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:55 pm
jenkins.math wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:41 pm
broncohead wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:20 pm

I agree. In my leagues the owners are holding out. I do think there will be another time to buy during the season as Denver will be getting back Sutton and I’m not convinced Lock is a viable starting QB. With the 1st three picks looking like QB, Denver may miss out on QB in the draft.
I've tried in the leagues I don't own him and Jeudy owners are also holding out in my league as well. I haven't seen him discounted either.

Is Jeudy really being moved for a discount in a lot of leagues or is this just an idea that hasn't exactly manifested itself in reality?
I'm wondering if it's based on recent ADP data. I haven't seen any trades in any of my leagues with him involved.
Saw Diontae Johnson net Jeudy and a late 3rd shortly after JuJu signed with Pittsburgh.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby MFundercover » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm

James Robinson a buy low?

With a weak RB draft class, the chances of him holding off whatever competition he gets seem good right now. And if he plays at the level he did again next year it seems likely to me that he will be treated like a proven NFL asset at that point. I understand his circumstances around being a udfa create risk, but if he was a 2nd round pick, what would the community be trading for him this offseason? In other words, if he is able to establish himself going forward he will be worth significantly more than you can pay for him now.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby joeya2001 » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:11 am

Is Nelson Agholor a buy low?
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs

QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

2020 3rd place Year 1
(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
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2023 4 1st 5 2nd
2024 3rd
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby skinfanjon » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:23 pm

MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm James Robinson a buy low?

With a weak RB draft class, the chances of him holding off whatever competition he gets seem good right now. And if he plays at the level he did again next year it seems likely to me that he will be treated like a proven NFL asset at that point. I understand his circumstances around being a udfa create risk, but if he was a 2nd round pick, what would the community be trading for him this offseason? In other words, if he is able to establish himself going forward he will be worth significantly more than you can pay for him now.
He is for me. I made two deals to get him so far this offseason, both teams are very strong contenders.

Diontae, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd for Robinson

Tyreek, Pittman for McLaurin, Robinson

1st team was desperate for a young RB and those picks will be late unless injuries hit super hard. Finished 2nd last year in one of the worst bad beats ever. Also wanted out on Diontae and couldn't find any takers.

2nd team also need a RB pretty badly. Won the chip 2 out of 3 seasons.

The first one feels like a bit of a value overpay but if he has the same numbers as last year it's worth it. And with Lawrence coming can't imagine the offense isn't better. Figure they take another WR early too.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:49 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:23 pm
MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm James Robinson a buy low?

With a weak RB draft class, the chances of him holding off whatever competition he gets seem good right now. And if he plays at the level he did again next year it seems likely to me that he will be treated like a proven NFL asset at that point. I understand his circumstances around being a udfa create risk, but if he was a 2nd round pick, what would the community be trading for him this offseason? In other words, if he is able to establish himself going forward he will be worth significantly more than you can pay for him now.
He is for me. I made two deals to get him so far this offseason, both teams are very strong contenders.

Diontae, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd for Robinson

Tyreek, Pittman for McLaurin, Robinson

1st team was desperate for a young RB and those picks will be late unless injuries hit super hard. Finished 2nd last year in one of the worst bad beats ever. Also wanted out on Diontae and couldn't find any takers.

2nd team also need a RB pretty badly. Won the chip 2 out of 3 seasons.

The first one feels like a bit of a value overpay but if he has the same numbers as last year it's worth it. And with Lawrence coming can't imagine the offense isn't better. Figure they take another WR early too.
My Lord, those aren't buy lows at all.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby skinfanjon » Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:11 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:49 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:23 pm
MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm James Robinson a buy low?

With a weak RB draft class, the chances of him holding off whatever competition he gets seem good right now. And if he plays at the level he did again next year it seems likely to me that he will be treated like a proven NFL asset at that point. I understand his circumstances around being a udfa create risk, but if he was a 2nd round pick, what would the community be trading for him this offseason? In other words, if he is able to establish himself going forward he will be worth significantly more than you can pay for him now.
He is for me. I made two deals to get him so far this offseason, both teams are very strong contenders.

Diontae, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd for Robinson

Tyreek, Pittman for McLaurin, Robinson

1st team was desperate for a young RB and those picks will be late unless injuries hit super hard. Finished 2nd last year in one of the worst bad beats ever. Also wanted out on Diontae and couldn't find any takers.

2nd team also need a RB pretty badly. Won the chip 2 out of 3 seasons.

The first one feels like a bit of a value overpay but if he has the same numbers as last year it's worth it. And with Lawrence coming can't imagine the offense isn't better. Figure they take another WR early too.
My Lord, those aren't buy lows at all.
The fact you can acquire a 2nd year RB coming off an RB7 finish in his rookie year, on a team drafting one of the most hyped QB prospects ever...for WRs...is a buy low.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:18 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:11 pm The fact you can acquire a 2nd year RB coming off an RB7 finish in his rookie year, on a team drafting one of the most hyped QB prospects ever...for WRs...is a buy low.
No draft capital, new HC, new GM, multiple picks in the 2nd/3rd round that could be allocated to a RB that fits more in line with what the new management wants out of their RBs.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby skinfanjon » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:14 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:18 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:11 pm The fact you can acquire a 2nd year RB coming off an RB7 finish in his rookie year, on a team drafting one of the most hyped QB prospects ever...for WRs...is a buy low.
No draft capital, new HC, new GM, multiple picks in the 2nd/3rd round that could be allocated to a RB that fits more in line with what the new management wants out of their RBs.
So don't buy him. And when he does it again this year, he'll be borderline untouchable. If you want to stay hung up on UDFA status, be my guest. I tend to adjust a bit faster than the field anyway. I'm a so-so drafter but I'll put my trade history track record up against anyone.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby The MAC Machine » Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:12 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:14 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:18 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:11 pm The fact you can acquire a 2nd year RB coming off an RB7 finish in his rookie year, on a team drafting one of the most hyped QB prospects ever...for WRs...is a buy low.
No draft capital, new HC, new GM, multiple picks in the 2nd/3rd round that could be allocated to a RB that fits more in line with what the new management wants out of their RBs.
So don't buy him. And when he does it again this year, he'll be borderline untouchable. If you want to stay hung up on UDFA status, be my guest. I tend to adjust a bit faster than the field anyway. I'm a so-so drafter but I'll put my trade history track record up against anyone.
There’s a saying....if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. James Robinson isn’t the broken piece in Jacksonville.

I actually think James Robinson/Carlos Hyde will be the next coming of MJD/Fred Taylor. It will be fun to watch the resurgence of the Jaguars.
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12 TEAM SUPERFLEX PPR
START: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SUPERFLEX
ROSTER STARTERS
QB: S. Darnold (CAR)
RB: J. Jacobs (LV), L. Fournette (TB)
WR: Cooper (DAL), Ridley (ATL), M. Williams (LAC)
TE: R. Seals-Jones (WAS), M. Alie-Cox (IND)
FLEX: Sutton (DEN), J. Smith-Schuster (PIT), D. Harris (NE)
SUPERFLEX: M. Jones (NE)


BENCH:
QB: Rudolph (PIT), Book (NO), Minshew (PHL), Stidham (NE)
RB: Cord. Patterson (ATL), A. Collins (SEA), D. Dallas (SEA), K. Vaughn (TB), JJ Taylor (NE), S. Perine (CIN)
WR: M. Jones (JAX), Zaccheus (ATL), G. Olszewski (NE)
TE: B. Jarwin (DAL), D. Asiasi (NE)
IR: Tre' Q. Smith (NO), Tyrod Taylor (HOU), Chark Jr (JAX), R. Penny (SEA)

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:35 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:23 pm
MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm James Robinson a buy low?

With a weak RB draft class, the chances of him holding off whatever competition he gets seem good right now. And if he plays at the level he did again next year it seems likely to me that he will be treated like a proven NFL asset at that point. I understand his circumstances around being a udfa create risk, but if he was a 2nd round pick, what would the community be trading for him this offseason? In other words, if he is able to establish himself going forward he will be worth significantly more than you can pay for him now.
He is for me. I made two deals to get him so far this offseason, both teams are very strong contenders.

Diontae, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd for Robinson

Tyreek, Pittman for McLaurin, Robinson

1st team was desperate for a young RB and those picks will be late unless injuries hit super hard. Finished 2nd last year in one of the worst bad beats ever. Also wanted out on Diontae and couldn't find any takers.

2nd team also need a RB pretty badly. Won the chip 2 out of 3 seasons.

The first one feels like a bit of a value overpay but if he has the same numbers as last year it's worth it. And with Lawrence coming can't imagine the offense isn't better. Figure they take another WR early too.
Diontae Johnson plus a 1st and 2nd is bordering on a 1st round startup price. I like James Robinson and I have multiple copies, and I think that’s a fair price for him. I just think you’d have to value him like a Top 12 1QB asset to say that you “bought low” at that price.
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby skinfanjon » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:42 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:35 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:23 pm
MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm James Robinson a buy low?

With a weak RB draft class, the chances of him holding off whatever competition he gets seem good right now. And if he plays at the level he did again next year it seems likely to me that he will be treated like a proven NFL asset at that point. I understand his circumstances around being a udfa create risk, but if he was a 2nd round pick, what would the community be trading for him this offseason? In other words, if he is able to establish himself going forward he will be worth significantly more than you can pay for him now.
He is for me. I made two deals to get him so far this offseason, both teams are very strong contenders.

Diontae, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd for Robinson

Tyreek, Pittman for McLaurin, Robinson

1st team was desperate for a young RB and those picks will be late unless injuries hit super hard. Finished 2nd last year in one of the worst bad beats ever. Also wanted out on Diontae and couldn't find any takers.

2nd team also need a RB pretty badly. Won the chip 2 out of 3 seasons.

The first one feels like a bit of a value overpay but if he has the same numbers as last year it's worth it. And with Lawrence coming can't imagine the offense isn't better. Figure they take another WR early too.
Diontae Johnson plus a 1st and 2nd is bordering on a 1st round startup price. I like James Robinson and I have multiple copies, and I think that’s a fair price for him. I just think you’d have to value him like a Top 12 1QB asset to say that you “bought low” at that price.
Depends on where you value the picks. Not gonna get into the weeds as to why but I'd say it's 90% they are at worst 1.09 and 2.09. Plus Diontae, who I think will be an 8th or 9th round startup value next year, for a top 10 RB in his 2nd year. That's a clear win.

Could be wrong. I take chances on trades and win a whole lot more than I lose.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:15 am

AussieMate wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:41 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:09 am
AussieMate wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:14 am

As I said in another post this is all going off my questionable memory but I thought Juju had a mixed bag of good and terrible games without Brown, I remember it being talked about on this forum and there was a case for both the good and bad not just incredible good.
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