James Robinson

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Kurt G.O.A.T.
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Re: James Robinson

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Sun May 16, 2021 5:55 am

if lawrence is any good he will go to the open guy every time. nothing is as infuriating watching a game than a qb throwing to a receiver that is well covered, or double/triple covered when there should be some other receiver open.

as a rams fan i've had to endure a lot of that. bradford to amendola, bradford ordered to force feed tavon, goff to kupp. and now they have stafford, who had a fixation with calvin when he was on his team.

just go to the open guy.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Patsfan86 » Sun May 16, 2021 6:36 am

I agree but dont you think that the familiarity the two players have with each other could create for more opportunities for Etienne to get open? Like they are gonna be in sync with each other right out of the gate and may know what the other is gonna do, meaning more opportunities to get open. Having your college guy on your team is not a good thing for the other players, especially when its a developing Qb throwing to his college RB. The comfort is there already, this is just a really bad thing for Robinson and it cant be discounted.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun May 16, 2021 6:53 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:36 am I agree but dont you think that the familiarity the two players have with each other could create for more opportunities for Etienne to get open? Like they are gonna be in sync with each other right out of the gate and may know what the other is gonna do, meaning more opportunities to get open. Having your college guy on your team is not a good thing for the other players, especially when its a developing Qb throwing to his college RB. The comfort is there already, this is just a really bad thing for Robinson and it cant be discounted.
There’s absolutely no way to know right now who Lawrence is going to develop trust in. It’s going to take observation of OTAs, training camp, and preseason at a minimum. But to think he won’t evolve past his college relationships seems a bit short sighted unless Lawrence intends to limit himself. Given how seamless his transition was from high school to college, that doesn’t seem to fit his mentality.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Patsfan86 » Sun May 16, 2021 7:04 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:53 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:36 am I agree but dont you think that the familiarity the two players have with each other could create for more opportunities for Etienne to get open? Like they are gonna be in sync with each other right out of the gate and may know what the other is gonna do, meaning more opportunities to get open. Having your college guy on your team is not a good thing for the other players, especially when its a developing Qb throwing to his college RB. The comfort is there already, this is just a really bad thing for Robinson and it cant be discounted.
There’s absolutely no way to know right now who Lawrence is going to develop trust in. It’s going to take observation of OTAs, training camp, and preseason at a minimum. But to think he won’t evolve past his college relationships seems a bit short sighted unless Lawrence intends to limit himself. Given how seamless his transition was from high school to college, that doesn’t seem to fit his mentality.
Im not saying he wont evolve, he certainly will, but familiarity with a player at any level matters. The GOAT brady had years of familiarity with Gronk on a pro team and we saw that certainly helped Gronks fantasy production last year, and in real life too since they won another super bowl. Lawrence is a phenomenal prospect and will evolve but he is still a rookie learning the pro game and at first it will be much easier for him to go to what is familiar to him. This will happen early and therefore push Robinson out more quickly. None of this news is a good thing for Robinson.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Sun May 16, 2021 7:32 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:53 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:36 am I agree but dont you think that the familiarity the two players have with each other could create for more opportunities for Etienne to get open? Like they are gonna be in sync with each other right out of the gate and may know what the other is gonna do, meaning more opportunities to get open. Having your college guy on your team is not a good thing for the other players, especially when its a developing Qb throwing to his college RB. The comfort is there already, this is just a really bad thing for Robinson and it cant be discounted.
There’s absolutely no way to know right now who Lawrence is going to develop trust in. It’s going to take observation of OTAs, training camp, and preseason at a minimum. But to think he won’t evolve past his college relationships seems a bit short sighted unless Lawrence intends to limit himself. Given how seamless his transition was from high school to college, that doesn’t seem to fit his mentality.
I get the idea that he could mesh with his college teammate but I don't know that I would put any weight to it or if you wanted to weigh the idea, how would you? I think BillyBronco is right here. I mean, for all we know ETN and TLaw don't care for each other and we are pretty sure JRob is a good guy.

When it comes to these intuitive ideas, I'll admit I use more intuition than most here. I'm not an accomplished metrics guy or film guy and try not to overly contribute to who will or wont succeed based off talent and that's why I wouldn't claim ETN has the skills to easily take the job and run away with it. I normally stick to recurring trends, statistics and situations the play themselves out repeatedly, using other peoples work, etc. I like to use unmeasurable intangibles at times, such as the one about former college team mates, but I don't think it's a great data point(not really a thing if we are just using intuition) without more info.

Now I will say I'm curious to find out how this draft turns out. There are several situations it seems rookies were purposely drafted to play with their former team mates and I will be watching to see if that trend continues.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

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12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


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Re: James Robinson

Postby The MAC Machine » Sun May 16, 2021 7:35 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 7:04 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:53 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 6:36 am I agree but dont you think that the familiarity the two players have with each other could create for more opportunities for Etienne to get open? Like they are gonna be in sync with each other right out of the gate and may know what the other is gonna do, meaning more opportunities to get open. Having your college guy on your team is not a good thing for the other players, especially when its a developing Qb throwing to his college RB. The comfort is there already, this is just a really bad thing for Robinson and it cant be discounted.
There’s absolutely no way to know right now who Lawrence is going to develop trust in. It’s going to take observation of OTAs, training camp, and preseason at a minimum. But to think he won’t evolve past his college relationships seems a bit short sighted unless Lawrence intends to limit himself. Given how seamless his transition was from high school to college, that doesn’t seem to fit his mentality.
Im not saying he wont evolve, he certainly will, but familiarity with a player at any level matters. The GOAT brady had years of familiarity with Gronk on a pro team and we saw that certainly helped Gronks fantasy production last year, and in real life too since they won another super bowl. Lawrence is a phenomenal prospect and will evolve but he is still a rookie learning the pro game and at first it will be much easier for him to go to what is familiar to him. This will happen early and therefore push Robinson out more quickly. None of this news is a good thing for Robinson.
The problem is you are assuming what is good for ETN is bad for Robinson. That’s not necessarily TRUE. That’s just the black and white narrative many are deploying to justify value shifts. ETN and Robinson can BOTH do well and people who believe that will benefit. Remember that JRob was a top back when the Jags were LOSING. A year ago everyone screamed that negative game script would limit JRobs production. Now that the Jaguars are BETTER people think he will be faded?

In a league where RB longevity and health is essential, I think this situation will benefit both players and subsequently the entire team. The Jags would be foolish to fade Robinson just to overuse ETN right out of the gate. Physically and financially it just wouldn’t make a lot of sense.
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12 TEAM SUPERFLEX PPR
START: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SUPERFLEX
ROSTER STARTERS
QB: S. Darnold (CAR)
RB: J. Jacobs (LV), L. Fournette (TB)
WR: Cooper (DAL), Ridley (ATL), M. Williams (LAC)
TE: R. Seals-Jones (WAS), M. Alie-Cox (IND)
FLEX: Sutton (DEN), J. Smith-Schuster (PIT), D. Harris (NE)
SUPERFLEX: M. Jones (NE)


BENCH:
QB: Rudolph (PIT), Book (NO), Minshew (PHL), Stidham (NE)
RB: Cord. Patterson (ATL), A. Collins (SEA), D. Dallas (SEA), K. Vaughn (TB), JJ Taylor (NE), S. Perine (CIN)
WR: M. Jones (JAX), Zaccheus (ATL), G. Olszewski (NE)
TE: B. Jarwin (DAL), D. Asiasi (NE)
IR: Tre' Q. Smith (NO), Tyrod Taylor (HOU), Chark Jr (JAX), R. Penny (SEA)

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Re: James Robinson

Postby thebeast » Sun May 16, 2021 7:44 am

Etienne taking all mini camp reps at WR so far.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun May 16, 2021 8:13 am

There are a lot of people taking rigid positions when we have no idea what JAX is going to do on offense.

If I had to guess based on what Meyer’s and Bevell’s predispositions have been in the past, we are likely looking at an offense that will be a lot more run heavy than what JAX showed last year. Both guys believe in a power running game to set up the passing offense. We know Meyer loves to implement a slash type player and he is very successful using those players.

It’s reasonable to assume that JAX will run the ball a lot more than last year. Given that they were dead last in rushing attempts last year, that’s not difficult to suppose but it is wide open as to how much more.

It’s also reasonable to guess that Etienne may be used in a more nontradtional RB role than what the NFL typically sees from 1st round RBs. That would be consistent with how Etienne is being used in rookie orientation. It would also justify his draft capital in that he’ll be tasked with taking on a hybrid role designed to having him line up outside the tackles at times and using one of his superior traits in getting the ball in space by receiving out of a mismatch setting.

This kind of offensive mindset would also be beneficial to Lawrence, since he has to learn the NFL and be given time to let it slow down for him. It puts less pressure on a rookie QB and assists greatly in their learning curve. If these guesses - and that’s all they are right now since no one beyond the JAX coaching staff knows for sure - are at least somewhat correct, then there’s room for 2 RBs to have FF impact on the team.

Anyone who thinks they know with certainty what JAX is going to do this year on offense and how it will impact player outcomes, they are fooling themselves and are making completely unfounded assumptions.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun May 16, 2021 9:16 am

The Godwin Complex wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 7:35 am
The problem is you are assuming what is good for ETN is bad for Robinson. That’s not necessarily TRUE. That’s just the black and white narrative many are deploying to justify value shifts. ETN and Robinson can BOTH do well and people who believe that will benefit. Remember that JRob was a top back when the Jags were LOSING. A year ago everyone screamed that negative game script would limit JRobs production. Now that the Jaguars are BETTER people think he will be faded?

In a league where RB longevity and health is essential, I think this situation will benefit both players and subsequently the entire team. The Jags would be foolish to fade Robinson just to overuse ETN right out of the gate. Physically and financially it just wouldn’t make a lot of sense.
Since when is RB longevity essential in the NFL? If anything, the hard cap and unguaranteed contracts basically allow teams to reap the value of RBs on rookie deals and to drop them afterwards for a new one. RB is one of the least important positions in the league. It has no correlation to winning Super Bowls or even being a really good team. Most RBs are simply the beneficiary of a really good offensive line and run block scheme.

There are examples of two-RB committees who put up high-end production. Ingram/Kamara, Chubb/Hunt, many years ago Bradshaw/Jacobs. So, there is a precedent for Etienne and Robinson to both be relevant at a high level, but it's not likely.

Right now, Mike Clay's 2021 projections have Etienne with 192 touches and Robinson with 198, which is basically a 50/50 split. I think that's reasonable, but does that hold up long-term? Usually it doesn't if you're playing a 1st round RB.

Either way, if Robinson loses 100 touches and Etienne's role in the offense practically grows, then people aren't justified in fading Robinson. He already achieved an incredibly unlikely result as a rookie, so that's looking like the peak of his powers. There'd be no reason to pay anything more than a random 2nd for him at this point.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby MFundercover » Sun May 16, 2021 2:26 pm

I'm a Jrob bag holder and theres nothing I can honestly say to try and sell him at this point. Hes dead. Mattison tier fantasy player.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun May 16, 2021 3:40 pm

MFundercover wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 2:26 pm I'm a Jrob bag holder and theres nothing I can honestly say to try and sell him at this point. Hes dead. Mattison tier fantasy player.
Would you take a 2022 2nd rounder for him?

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Re: James Robinson

Postby MFundercover » Sun May 16, 2021 4:13 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 3:40 pm
MFundercover wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 2:26 pm I'm a Jrob bag holder and theres nothing I can honestly say to try and sell him at this point. Hes dead. Mattison tier fantasy player.
Would you take a 2022 2nd rounder for him?
Yeah probably. I think long term hell be seen as an early 3rd type of value.

We had our draft a couple days ago (1qb). By the late 1st round everybody was so flawed that I would have considered Jrob a late 1 value in this draft. But that's more about how weak this class is for fantasy than being optimistic about him.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby The MAC Machine » Sun May 16, 2021 4:26 pm

MFundercover wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 4:13 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 3:40 pm
MFundercover wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 2:26 pm I'm a Jrob bag holder and theres nothing I can honestly say to try and sell him at this point. Hes dead. Mattison tier fantasy player.
Would you take a 2022 2nd rounder for him?
Yeah probably. I think long term hell be seen as an early 3rd type of value.

We had our draft a couple days ago (1qb). By the late 1st round everybody was so flawed that I would have considered Jrob a late 1 value in this draft. But that's more about how weak this class is for fantasy than being optimistic about him.

So basically what you are saying is that anybody who took a 2nd for JRob this past year, not only lost out on his production but based on the weakness of this class - lost the trade.

What you just stated is why I don’t like trading players for picks until AFTER the NFL draft. Their value becomes much more clear by then.
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⛳️Jaguars will finish 11-6 and make the playoffs
⛳️If Sam Darnold finishes outside of the top 13 QB in 2021 then StripesOfKC & Sriracha get to decide what my new handle and icon will be. :thumbup:

12 TEAM SUPERFLEX PPR
START: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SUPERFLEX
ROSTER STARTERS
QB: S. Darnold (CAR)
RB: J. Jacobs (LV), L. Fournette (TB)
WR: Cooper (DAL), Ridley (ATL), M. Williams (LAC)
TE: R. Seals-Jones (WAS), M. Alie-Cox (IND)
FLEX: Sutton (DEN), J. Smith-Schuster (PIT), D. Harris (NE)
SUPERFLEX: M. Jones (NE)


BENCH:
QB: Rudolph (PIT), Book (NO), Minshew (PHL), Stidham (NE)
RB: Cord. Patterson (ATL), A. Collins (SEA), D. Dallas (SEA), K. Vaughn (TB), JJ Taylor (NE), S. Perine (CIN)
WR: M. Jones (JAX), Zaccheus (ATL), G. Olszewski (NE)
TE: B. Jarwin (DAL), D. Asiasi (NE)
IR: Tre' Q. Smith (NO), Tyrod Taylor (HOU), Chark Jr (JAX), R. Penny (SEA)

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Re: James Robinson

Postby MFundercover » Sun May 16, 2021 9:58 pm

The Godwin Complex wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 4:26 pm What you just stated is why I don’t like trading players for picks until AFTER the NFL draft. Their value becomes much more clear by then.
I don't think it's so black and white. Ideally yes, you would wait until after the draft, but you risk the price going up, or a stubborn owner falling in love and flat out not trading him. If Jrob would have avoided any RB of significance in the draft, he would have been valued as a top 12 RB for 2021 by many at the least. His pre draft value was a potential buy low opportunity because of the risk involved. Take the risk out, and the price goes up..by how much varies owner to owner. But I know there are a lot of leagues that over value RBs, mine included. Somebody would have held on to him for nothing less than a huge pay out. I just don't think his pre draft value would have been the same post draft, or especially in season when he would have been touching the ball 18 times a game.

It's a gamble. Playing it safe is usually the way to go in fantasy, but sometimes the gambles are the best moves you make. I didn't think the Jags would be stupid enough to blow a first round pick on a RB when they could have had a 1st round edge, so I gambled, and lost. I would take the loss and grab a future 2nd at this point. At least this draft is shallow for positional players. Not sure anyone taken after the pick I gave up for Jrob is in any better a position than he is at this point.

Hope you're right though. There is still a path for him to be relevant, it's just a very tight window at this point.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Bot101 » Sun May 16, 2021 10:46 pm

Sometimes I feel bad for some of you Jrob owners (I was once one). And then I remember last season when some very respectable people were saying to "cash out", I followed that advice. I made an offer of Sutton + for Arob who I thought was on a rebuilding team. He countered with my Jrob + Shenault for Arob. I accepted. Well a week or 2 later I was ravaged by injuries and covid issues at RB. I offered a freaking 1st rnd pick for Jrob just to plug the gaping hole at RB and was rejected and no counter.

Fast forward 1 month-ish before the NFL draft the Jrob manager puts him on the block. I offer 2x early-mid projected 2022 2nds in a 10 man league and was rejected with no counter. Im baffled at this point and just declare things over. Well, I feel so unbelievably satisfied that the Jrob manager in my home league got punched right in the mouth. Stop overvaluing these low draft capital players. The NFL (wrongly) views these guys as worthless.

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