James Robinson

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CGW
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Re: James Robinson

Postby CGW » Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:58 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:53 am Both of my personal big rules in dynasty proving to have some validity here

1. Dont trade for RBs between the end of the fantasy season and the NFL draft

2. Dont spend too much on UDFAs........ ever.

I used to do both of these early on and they burned me so bad all the time so i refuse to do either of them. If i see a UDFA Rb the best you will get from me is a third round pick. The people who had JRob should have cashed out, especially with the coaching change. 2nd round pick RBs arent safe under new coaches, what makes people think UDFAs will be? Get these guys for free on waivers, ride them out for the year, cash out.
Also my rule. Although, I broke it twice for the first two times this offseason acquiring Zeke and Akers at low prices. Its just too risky and there are truly very few safe RBs, UDFA or otherwise. Buy these guys after the NFL draft if you are a competitor, unless you are getting a hell of a deal.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:03 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:53 am Both of my personal big rules in dynasty proving to have some validity here

1. Dont trade for RBs between the end of the fantasy season and the NFL draft

2. Dont spend too much on UDFAs........ ever.

I used to do both of these early on and they burned me so bad all the time so i refuse to do either of them. If i see a UDFA Rb the best you will get from me is a third round pick. The people who had JRob should have cashed out, especially with the coaching change. 2nd round pick RBs arent safe under new coaches, what makes people think UDFAs will be? Get these guys for free on waivers, ride them out for the year, cash out.
Good post.

Granted, I was wrong that Robinson wouldn't be productive, but I'll still play those overwhelming odds more times than not. Jacksonville clearly put no value into Robinson's year considering they only won a game and they didn't spend anything significant on him.

Teams will always view non-elite RBs as expendable for a talent or scheme upgrade. Also, doesn't hurt that he's played with Lawrence for three years.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Patsfan86 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:10 am

CGW wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:58 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:53 am Both of my personal big rules in dynasty proving to have some validity here

1. Dont trade for RBs between the end of the fantasy season and the NFL draft

2. Dont spend too much on UDFAs........ ever.

I used to do both of these early on and they burned me so bad all the time so i refuse to do either of them. If i see a UDFA Rb the best you will get from me is a third round pick. The people who had JRob should have cashed out, especially with the coaching change. 2nd round pick RBs arent safe under new coaches, what makes people think UDFAs will be? Get these guys for free on waivers, ride them out for the year, cash out.
Also my rule. Although, I broke it twice for the first two times this offseason acquiring Zeke and Akers at low prices. Its just too risky and there are truly very few safe RBs, UDFA or otherwise. Buy these guys after the NFL draft if you are a competitor, unless you are getting a hell of a deal.
I would have 100 percent broken it for a guy like Akers. His ceiling is high and thats a different situation. Im talking more about acquiring the Alex collins, Thomas Rawls and Phillip Lindsays of the world. I was burned so hard by Collins, i totally stopped with acquiring RBs in the offseason after that.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby CGW » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:16 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:10 am
CGW wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:58 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:53 am Both of my personal big rules in dynasty proving to have some validity here

1. Dont trade for RBs between the end of the fantasy season and the NFL draft

2. Dont spend too much on UDFAs........ ever.

I used to do both of these early on and they burned me so bad all the time so i refuse to do either of them. If i see a UDFA Rb the best you will get from me is a third round pick. The people who had JRob should have cashed out, especially with the coaching change. 2nd round pick RBs arent safe under new coaches, what makes people think UDFAs will be? Get these guys for free on waivers, ride them out for the year, cash out.
Also my rule. Although, I broke it twice for the first two times this offseason acquiring Zeke and Akers at low prices. Its just too risky and there are truly very few safe RBs, UDFA or otherwise. Buy these guys after the NFL draft if you are a competitor, unless you are getting a hell of a deal.
I would have 100 percent broken it for a guy like Akers. His ceiling is high and thats a different situation. Im talking more about acquiring the Alex collins, Thomas Rawls and Phillip Lindsays of the world. I was burned so hard by Collins, i totally stopped with acquiring RBs in the offseason after that.
Its generally not even just late round guys. RB is so replaceable, if you aren't an early 1st round pick, you are probably at risk. Late round and UDFA even more so. Always buy with caution when doing it before the NFL draft.

I never invested last year in Robinson and he ended up being a fantasy stud. I'll gladly miss on these guys or sell when I do hit on my waiver pickups. Gaskin is another perfect example. He was a high end RB2 last season, not all that different from Robinson in PPG. Holding onto these guys is a losing battle when you are playing the long term odds game.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:36 am

I believe that reports of his death may be premature.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby CGW » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:42 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:36 am I believe that reports of his death may be premature.
Oh hes not dead, yet, but his value took a big hit even if he manages to maintain a sizeable workload.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby MFundercover » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:45 am

CGW wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:58 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:53 am Both of my personal big rules in dynasty proving to have some validity here

1. Dont trade for RBs between the end of the fantasy season and the NFL draft

2. Dont spend too much on UDFAs........ ever.

I used to do both of these early on and they burned me so bad all the time so i refuse to do either of them. If i see a UDFA Rb the best you will get from me is a third round pick. The people who had JRob should have cashed out, especially with the coaching change. 2nd round pick RBs arent safe under new coaches, what makes people think UDFAs will be? Get these guys for free on waivers, ride them out for the year, cash out.
Also my rule. Although, I broke it twice for the first two times this offseason acquiring Zeke and Akers at low prices. Its just too risky and there are truly very few safe RBs, UDFA or otherwise. Buy these guys after the NFL draft if you are a competitor, unless you are getting a hell of a deal.
I don't think it's that simple. If the Jags didn't add a back until the 4th round Jrobs price would have skyrocketed, and the predraft buyer would have won. It was never a slam dunk, it was a gamble either way.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:51 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:36 am I believe that reports of his death may be premature.
That's a great comment.

I pounded the table last year to sell him for an early 2nd if given the chance. Like Cameron Giles, I also missed out on his production and wish I had kept him and got more. But like I said over and over, it's not worth gambling because if he gets hurt, you will lose every bit of value on him by next year. He didn't get hurt, had the best season anyone could imagine, and lost a ton of value. (If you can grab him now for something like a mid to late 3rd(SF) it would be a good idea on the small chance ETN busts, is injured or JAX trades JRob)

I'm going to be drafting a 1st or 2nd round NFL pick, someone like Rondale Moore or Batemon with the 2nd I received for JRob last year. I'm pretty pleased about that.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: James Robinson

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:00 am

MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:45 am
CGW wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:58 am
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:53 am Both of my personal big rules in dynasty proving to have some validity here

1. Dont trade for RBs between the end of the fantasy season and the NFL draft

2. Dont spend too much on UDFAs........ ever.

I used to do both of these early on and they burned me so bad all the time so i refuse to do either of them. If i see a UDFA Rb the best you will get from me is a third round pick. The people who had JRob should have cashed out, especially with the coaching change. 2nd round pick RBs arent safe under new coaches, what makes people think UDFAs will be? Get these guys for free on waivers, ride them out for the year, cash out.
Also my rule. Although, I broke it twice for the first two times this offseason acquiring Zeke and Akers at low prices. Its just too risky and there are truly very few safe RBs, UDFA or otherwise. Buy these guys after the NFL draft if you are a competitor, unless you are getting a hell of a deal.
I don't think it's that simple. If the Jags didn't add a back until the 4th round Jrobs price would have skyrocketed, and the predraft buyer would have won. It was never a slam dunk, it was a gamble either way.
I just think there are guys near his ADP that aren't in any way the same sort of gamble. Mixon, Ayuick, Godwin, Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. He was being drafted ADP wise around the 1.04. That's insane. He was only 5 spots behind Etienne in a 1 qb startup. You could have swapped him for Mac Jones in a SF. Insanity to keep an UDFA RB over a QB in a SF.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: James Robinson

Postby MFundercover » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:03 am

Robinson also had a higher ceiling than all of those guys. If you took away the concerns of being replaced in the draft, you have a 22 year old RB that just finished 7th ovl. He would have went for twice as much as everyone on the list at that point. He was always a gamble play.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:13 am

MFundercover wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:03 am Robinson also had a higher ceiling than all of those guys. If you took away the concerns of being replaced in the draft, you have a 22 year old RB that just finished 7th ovl. He would have went for twice as much as everyone on the list at that point. He was always a gamble play.
I said he played his heart out and deserves to be the starter earlier, but that's just not the way it works for whatever reasons in the NFL.

Even if Jax hadn't drafted anyone JRob would still be viewed as a 1 year rental and his value would never spike to where his production warranted. And not in a Keenan Allen/ARob undervalued sort of way. It would be because any moment he could lose every bit of value he has. Godwin has a down year and he drops 25 spots in ADP. JRob has a bad year and you'll never hear from him again. Hell, he has a fantastic year and you may not hear much from him again. The risk is astronomical with UDFAs.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:33 am

I don't own any Robinson shares, but I too was watching and waiting to see where Etienne would end up. Sitting by myself, I actually said, "Nooooooooooo!" when the pick was announced. Not that it hurts Travis' long-term value too much if Meyers and staff don't Saban their way out of the league, but it doesn't seem he'll get off to a fast start either.

I feel for you Robinson owners though. There's room for you all at the pity party us Dillon hopeful have been having since the Pack re-signed Jones. Stinks to have your hopes dashed like that.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:07 am

SStory93 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:10 am If you look at what I perceive Meyer is gonna do. Robinson will still play at factor. After Rashad Penny was drafted, Carson still played a ton in SEA. I think these situation are comparable. Def can see JAX being a top rushing team using ETN similar to how Kamara was used his first season in NO with Robinson taking the beating between the tackle like Ingram. Both RB were still fantasy relevant. I mean at the very least I hope that is what occurs.
The key difference is etienne was thought of as a pick in this range whereas Penny was not. Most probably projected Penny as a 3rd rounder or something.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby SStory93 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:15 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:07 am
SStory93 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:10 am If you look at what I perceive Meyer is gonna do. Robinson will still play at factor. After Rashad Penny was drafted, Carson still played a ton in SEA. I think these situation are comparable. Def can see JAX being a top rushing team using ETN similar to how Kamara was used his first season in NO with Robinson taking the beating between the tackle like Ingram. Both RB were still fantasy relevant. I mean at the very least I hope that is what occurs.
The key difference is etienne was thought of as a pick in this range whereas Penny was not. Most probably projected Penny as a 3rd rounder or something.
I use that example due to the coaching staff in place, but there were a couple of examples that I found where it didn't mean the end of fantasy relevance for the RB. CJ Spiller with Fred Jackson, CMC with J Stewert, Ryan Matthews with Mike Tolbert. All these guys were as highly touted if not more than ETN, but came into a team with a decent RB on the roster. I can def see Rob getting about 200 touches however I do think its just a matter of when he is replaced for good.
Last edited by SStory93 on Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:46 am

SStory93 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:15 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:07 am
SStory93 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:10 am If you look at what I perceive Meyer is gonna do. Robinson will still play at factor. After Rashad Penny was drafted, Carson still played a ton in SEA. I think these situation are comparable. Def can see JAX being a top rushing team using ETN similar to how Kamara was used his first season in NO with Robinson taking the beating between the tackle like Ingram. Both RB were still fantasy relevant. I mean at the very least I hope that is what occurs.
The key difference is etienne was thought of as a pick in this range whereas Penny was not. Most probably projected Penny as a 3rd rounder or something.
I use that example due to the coaching staff in place, but there were a couple of examples that I found where it didn't mean the end of fantasy relevance for the RB. CJ Spiller with Fred Jackson, CMC with J Stewert, Ryan Matthews with Mike Tolbert. All these guys were as highly touted if not more than Spiller, but came into a team with a decent RB on the roster. I can def see Rob getting about 200 touches however I do think its just a matter of when he is replaced for good.
Yeah, makes sense. I think it will be some sort of timeshare to start. Feel like Lawrence and etienne connection gives etienne a boost other rbs might not get though


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