James Robinson

[Kelldon]

I value ARob over JRob. I don't see Jrob as a buy because Jrob owners still want late 1st/early 2nd when he is worth closer to late 2nd. JRob will have a NFL role this year but I am not sure he will have one that is fantasy relevant. There is a difference between real life nfl role and a fantasy relevant role. If by midseason it is ETN60%/JRob30%/Hyde10% how often are you gonna be starting JRob. Even if JRob gets 40-45% that is half of what he got last year.

[StripesOfKC]

This is like trading Keenan Allen for Marlon Mack after last year's draft

[captain howdy]

he is a buy low. He is best suited to protect trevor lawrence too, so Im surprised by meyers 3rd down rb comment on etienne. but maybe down the road. as for 2021, I like Jrob.


that said. the OP purchase price was not buy low.

[captain howdy]

Man, I really think you guys are delusional. ARob's only value is from getting 150 targets a year. Otherwise he SUCKS. He is also a dick. Let Fields over throw him a few times and they'll me making meme's again. Chicago doesn't want to be targeting him 150 times a game. That will change sooner rather that later. Maybe not 2021 but by 2022 ARob is else where, not getting 150 targets or Bears have a better #2 option and ARob isn't getting 150 targets. I have Robby Anderson and ARob on the same team and ARob only scored 30 more points than Robby. I'm telling you all now, if the people in your leagues value ARob as much as you all do here and you own him, SELL, SELL, SELL!

What basis do you have to disparage arob's talent when, league wide - he is looked upon as a dynamic wr1?

Your statement that arob sucks is completely unsupported and drives your entire argument. This thread reeks of an owner who thoguht hed get congrats on a trade and wildly grabs at air when he doesnt get the support he thought hed get.

[JTLoh]

I value ARob over JRob. I don't see Jrob as a buy because Jrob owners still want late 1st/early 2nd when he is worth closer to late 2nd. JRob will have a NFL role this year but I am not sure he will have one that is fantasy relevant. There is a difference between real life nfl role and a fantasy relevant role. If by midseason it is ETN60%/JRob30%/Hyde10% how often are you gonna be starting JRob. Even if JRob gets 40-45% that is half of what he got last year.

In a redraft, I'd value ARob over JRob as well. So all your points are valid for the upcoming year. But there are also other factors, I have Jefferson, Lamb, Andrews, L.Thomas (In TE Premium league) who can all start. My only RBs of significance are Gibson and Jacobs. Now I have another decent back that may or may not pay dividends this year. And even if it isn't this year, I think at some point it pays dividends.

I mean, you don't put up 1400 yards, average 4.5 YPC, and score 10 TDs, in 14 games for a 1-15 team and then fall off the planet. I agree ETN will get work. But I'm still betting JRob will be relevant for a long time after ARob isn't.

[MEuRaH]

ARob's only value is from getting 150 targets a year.

Work = value. Targets are a good thing. Plus he may be paired up with the best quarterback(s) that he's ever had.

Chicago doesn't want to be targeting him 150 times a game. That will change sooner rather that later. Maybe not 2021 but by 2022 ARob is else where, not getting 150 targets or Bears have a better #2 option and ARob isn't getting 150 targets.

This sounds like all theory. Do you have any sources about the targeting? I'd be interested to read it.

I have Robby Anderson and ARob on the same team and ARob only scored 30 more points than Robby. I'm telling you all now, if the people in your leagues value ARob as much as you all do here and you own him, SELL, SELL, SELL!

This happens all the time.

A Rob: 100-1213-6
Robby: 92-1057-3

You're right that it wasn't by much, but if this means that ARob isn't that good, does it also mean Justin Jefferson is worse than ARod, since he scored less fantasy points? Smith-Shuster, CeeDee Lamb, DJ Moore, all scored less than both guys. Are they worse?

You posted a question seeking feedback, and we gave you replies. It appears your opinion doesn't match with the majority and you're perhaps upset by this? It's just what it seems, I could be wrong. For what it's worth, I happen to like your opinion, even though I disagree with it. I like it when someone has a unique take on a player. I wish more people made interesting topics like this.

If the trade works out in your favor, and I hope it does, I'll be happy for ya!

[Ice]

Man, I really think you guys are delusional. ARob's only value is from getting 150 targets a year. Otherwise he SUCKS. He is also a dick. Let Fields over throw him a few times and they'll me making meme's again. Chicago doesn't want to be targeting him 150 times a game. That will change sooner rather that later. Maybe not 2021 but by 2022 ARob is else where, not getting 150 targets or Bears have a better #2 option and ARob isn't getting 150 targets. I have Robby Anderson and ARob on the same team and ARob only scored 30 more points than Robby. I'm telling you all now, if the people in your leagues value ARob as much as you all do here and you own him, SELL, SELL, SELL!

Arob surprises a lot of people including me as a player I have never owned. He has had 4 years over 150 targets. No issues selling him but you discounted his value to a point you got fleeced IMO. Plug in Anderson in that deal and I am sure the push back wouldn't be quite as high as selling a top 7-8 WR two straight years for a player that just had competition drafted in round 1.

Looking beyond 2021 the disparity in value may be even worse.

Who knows, maybe you will get the last laugh but most certainly doubt that will happen today.

[JTLoh]

What basis do you have to disparage arob's talent when, league wide - he is looked upon as a dynamic wr1?

His TD totals are horribly low.
No receiver in NFL history has gotten over 150 targets per year for 3 years in a row.
The odds are his targets go down, sooner rather than later.
Once the targets are going, he isn't worth starting, even in PPR.

That's my basis.

[MEuRaH]

What basis do you have to disparage arob's talent when, league wide - he is looked upon as a dynamic wr1?

His TD totals are horribly low.
No receiver in NFL history has gotten over 150 targets per year for 3 years in a row.
The odds are his targets go down, sooner rather than later.
Once the targets are going, he isn't worth starting, even in PPR.

That's my basis.

The TDs are lower than average, I agree. He's hovering around 6-7 TDs per season for the last 5 years.

DeAndre Hopkins was the third WR I checked the stats on. He has 6 seasons in a row of 150 targets or more. I'm sure there are others.

Why do you think the targets for JRob will go down? That's the part I'm most interested in. Do you think Mooney starts to emerge and/or Kmet? Maybe the running game improves, as does the defenses, so they need to throw less?

I could see that.

[ryhan1014]

What basis do you have to disparage arob's talent when, league wide - he is looked upon as a dynamic wr1?

His TD totals are horribly low.
No receiver in NFL history has gotten over 150 targets per year for 3 years in a row.
The odds are his targets go down, sooner rather than later.
Once the targets are going, he isn't worth starting, even in PPR.

That's my basis.

I guess I’m interested to know what you think his targets drop to? In my opinion, they’d have to go well below 100 for him to go from WR1 to not startable?

[MEuRaH]

In my opinion, they’d have to go well below 100 for him to go from WR1 to not startable?

So that's interesting.

I quickly looked up the last few years, and in order to be a top 12 WR in any given year, you need to obtain about 115-120 targets.

So even if ARob loses 30 targets, he'd still be in contention for WR1 consideration.

...... man he had a lot of targets over his career. I knew it was a lot but I never knew how high it was.

[JTLoh]

Work = value. Targets are a good thing. Plus he may be paired up with the best quarterback(s) that he's ever had.

Targets are great, for Fantasy Scoring in PPR. Name a WR who has had 150+ targets for 3 years in a row.
I think he could do it this year as well, giving the lack of WR around him, but if he does, he'll be the first.

This sounds like all theory. Do you have any sources about the targeting? I'd be interested to read it.

It's definitely my observation of watching football for 30+ years. So I'm not sure what kind of a source you are looking for but I can tell you are educated and knowledgeable. Are you really going to argue that teams are looking to target a specific WR 150+ times a year? That's their goal, that's your counter argument? You need me to DISPROVE that theory (also your theory) with sources?

This happens all the time.

Of course it does. That's my point. This year it could be some other WR that gets a bunch of targets and scores over their head in PPR formats.

You posted a question seeking feedback, and we gave you replies. It appears your opinion doesn't match with the majority and you're perhaps upset by this?

Not upset at all. I like the debate. It's all good. Especially when I revisit this thread in 2023.

It's just what it seems, I could be wrong. For what it's worth, I happen to like your opinion, even though I disagree with it. I like it when someone has a unique take on a player. I wish more people made interesting topics like this.
If the trade works out in your favor, and I hope it does, I'll be happy for ya!

Thanks. I like your work as well.

[ryhan1014]

In my opinion, they’d have to go well below 100 for him to go from WR1 to not startable?

So that's interesting.

I quickly looked up the last few years, and in order to be a top 12 WR in any given year, you need to obtain about 115-120 targets.

So even if ARob loses 30 targets, he'd still be in contention for WR1 consideration.

...... man he had a lot of targets over his career. I knew it was a lot but I never knew how high it was.

Wow, I can’t imagine his targets going much lower than that - especially with what I expect to be much improved QB play in Chicago.

[JTLoh]

I definitely don't think he goes below 100 this year. (Redraft, I favor ARob) Baring injury. However, I can easily see it next year if he leaves Chicago or they add a significate WR. He'll be 28 when the season starts. I would take the under for 100 targets in 2022.

[MEuRaH]

I meant a source for the Bears not wanting to make ARob a target hog. I thought you had some inside info or something. I see now you're saying this is a basic rule of thumb for NFL teams. Got it.

You posted a question seeking feedback, and we gave you replies. It appears your opinion doesn't match with the majority and you're perhaps upset by this?

Not upset at all. I like the debate. It's all good. Especially when I revisit this thread in 2023.

Heck, you may not even have to wait that long. This is a good one, I'll remember it. It'll be fun to revisit because if you're right it'll blow everyone away. If you're wrong, it'll make your strong assertions very comical.

I did the same thing for CJ Anderson. I was all in, I made a large post, cited sources, gave gifs and clips. I was all in baby! I called him the #1 RB the following year!

Oh boy, was I wrong...