Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 7:30 am
Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 6:40 am
A lot of people are making some pretty bold assumptions with very little evidence to support their position - because right now no one knows how Meyer and Bevell will set up the JAX offense.
I’ve written a couple of posts between this thread and the Etienne thread that it is entirely conceivable given the histories of Meyer and Bevell that this offense could support 2 RBs - with Robinson approximately repeating last year’s performance and Etienne getting enough opportunity in a role similar to the way Meyer has used slash type players throughout his coaching career to get Etienne approximately 200 touches.
It really starts to make even more sense now that the NFL is going to 17 games. And that at least has some historical support of what the HC and OC have a decided history in doing, which is to establish a power running game to set up the passing game, and then simultaneously using a versatile flexible stud player in multiple locations across the offense as a dual RB/WR hybrid in Meyer’s case.
But again, where are the touches coming from?
Last season:
Robinson - 289
Shenault - 76
Chark - 53
Cole - 55
Conley - 40
Eifert - 36
Lost: Keelan Cole, Chris Conley, Tyler Eifert
Added: Marvin Jones, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Manhertz
Chark is likely to bounce back in volume. Jones assumes Cole's volume. Dorsett, Manhertz don't really matter.
So, how does Etienne get involved in the offense while keeping Robinson's almost-300 touch volume intact?
Someone mentioned Kamara/Ingram, but what you have to realize is that there was volume lost for Kamara to step in and assume. They lost Cooks 117 targets from the season before and Snead's role collapsed from 104 to a bit player. So Kamara's receiving role was open for volume. They lost Hightower from the year before (133 carries) so that also freed up Kamara for those touches.
Robinson made up such a large amount of Jacksonville's touches last season (40% of carries + receptions) that it's damn near impossible for him not to lose a signifcant amount of volume next season.
You can get there if you look at last years numbers and then make some assumptions on where they might go.
JAX was dead last in rushing attempts last year with 337. Meyer and Bevell both prefer to run a lot more than that. Let’s say they get to the league average. That puts them at 431 attempts, which is a +94 rushes.
Then let’s look at pass attempts. They had 616 last year where the league average is 563. We can guess that rushing attempts will gain at the expense of pass attempts, so put them at league average there too. That’s a 43/57 run/pass ratio - which is less than Meyer prefers but Bevell has been near that the past 3 years after a higher run ratio earlier with other teams. So the ratio and number of plays looks reasonable.
240 rushes for Robinson would leave 191 rushes for others. If Etienne is going to be a slash type player, 130 rushes is reasonable. That leaves 61 rushes for Lawrence, Shenault, and another RB. Again, not unreasonable.
If we take Coles, Conleys, and misc RB targets from last year we have a total of 203 targets difference. The less passing would account for 53 of them, leaving 153 targets. Let’s say Robinson gives up 20 targets - that keeps him at 40 targets and takes us up to 173 targets to divvy up. If Jones becomes the WR2 in this offense, he’d burn up somewhere near 80-90 of those targets, say 85, leaving 88 for Etienne if we leave TE and misc WR targets the same. If Etienne catches 75% of those because they are likely to be shorter, more easily completed targets and he should see coverage mismatches, that’s 66 completions.
So where we would be sitting between the RBs would be:
Robinson with 240 rushes, 30 catches for 270 touches.
Etienne would have 130 rushes and 66 catches for 199 touches.
Chark still gets near 90 targets, Shenault and Jones both around 80 targets.
That leaves enough offense for other players on the roster and gives Lawrence a decent amount of passes while fitting Meyer’s and Bevell’s desire to run the ball consistent with their histories but keeping in mind that the NFL is still a passing league.
This is a completely hypothetical exercise that could very well be completely wrong, but it shows that a team with this kind of hypothetical offense can get there.