James Robinson

[Ice]

Robinson owners simply need to understand 3 down traditional RB’s are becoming the dinosaurs of the NFL so set expectations accordingly.

I thought the bulk of your response was very good, but this struck me as odd. Legitimate 3 down RBs are extremely valuable IMO. There just aren’t as many because being a 3 down RB in today’s NFL requires a broader skill set than it used to so a lot of coaches elect to use committees instead as a virtual substitute. Maybe I’m misreading your thoughts.

Don't misunderstand I love 3 down backs but the reality in today's offense they are becoming more rare. Today the game is heavy on passing and short passes are like runs these days.

This doesn't mean that there won't be the occasional Henry type drafted but it is obvious teams are relying more and more on specialists with athletic QB's that can get in space on RPO's and make all the throws. The game is changing and the power back types will be more and more relegated to short yardage and goal line types.

A player like Robinson not only now has to contend with a more explosive RB on the roster, he also has to deal with a QB that can run and make all the throws.

On a side note, even Zeke will pay a price this year as Pollard may actually be the back to own this season as he is more explosive and looks to be quicker out of the backfield.

In 2020 2 RB's had 300 plus carries, the next highest was 247, only 10 total had 200 plus carries. The 15th highest had in the 180's in carries or under 12 per game on average.

Only 4 RB's rushed for over 1100 yards.

Robinson had 240 carries and 1070 yards and was one of only 8 RB's that rushed for over 1000 yards.

I know we love our RB's but it is really obvious RBBC is the reality by the growing majority of teams today.

[The MAC Machine]

So many people are saying JRob isnt worth "X".....but ever since I doubled down on JRob a year ago I have posed a very simple question that any naysayer has yet to truly answer....

what kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 1st round pick?
What kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 2nd round pick?

1 year of top 10 production?
2 years of top 10 production?

How much fruit does a pick need to bear for it to provide higher value/ROI than JRob?

Nobody has yet to quantify this for me. I think we should mock up last years 2nd round picks and this years 2nd round picks and compare.....

[StripesOfKC]

So many people are saying JRob isnt worth "X".....but ever since I doubled down on JRob a year ago I have posed a very simple question that any naysayer has yet to truly answer....

what kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 1st round pick?
What kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 2nd round pick?

1 year of top 10 production?
2 years of top 10 production?

How much fruit does a pick need to bear for it to provide higher value/ROI than JRob?

Nobody has yet to quantify this for me. I think we should mock up last years 2nd round picks and this years 2nd round picks and compare.....

You aren't paying for JRob's production from last year--that's irrelevant. You are paying for the production still to come...

There is likely no top 10 production to come--or even top 20 (unfortunately for my one remaining Robinson share)--that's why his value has been hit

You can't pay for what he already did

[Cameron Giles]

So many people are saying JRob isnt worth "X".....but ever since I doubled down on JRob a year ago I have posed a very simple question that any naysayer has yet to truly answer....

what kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 1st round pick?
What kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 2nd round pick?

1 year of top 10 production?
2 years of top 10 production?

How much fruit does a pick need to bear for it to provide higher value/ROI than JRob?

Nobody has yet to quantify this for me. I think we should mock up last years 2nd round picks and this years 2nd round picks and compare.....

At some point, you just have to be honest with reality.

Why would someone pay a first round pick for an RB whose team just spent a 1st round pick at the same position on a more talented back? Seriously, if you are a team with a projected mid first in 22 and you are looking to improve, why would you trade that pick for an RB who is not on track to start and is projected to lose around 35-45% of last season's volume? What does that do for you?

It's just lunacy. There's no upside to it.

Even if you legitimately think Robinson remains the starter and doesn't lose much volume, why wouldn't you just wait until that happens and pay the same price as opposed to paying that price now when popular belief is Etienne is going to eat into his share?

It's not a matter of overrating a draft pick. It's a matter of knowing that a future 1st or 2nd is a guarantee to ascend in value. Robinson is not a guarantee and could just as easily continue declining in value if Etienne is as good as his pedigree.

There are better and more practical uses of a 1st. I could understand paying a 2nd if you have Etienne and just want the handcuff, but that's about it.

[The MAC Machine]

So many people are saying JRob isnt worth "X".....but ever since I doubled down on JRob a year ago I have posed a very simple question that any naysayer has yet to truly answer....

what kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 1st round pick?
What kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 2nd round pick?

1 year of top 10 production?
2 years of top 10 production?

How much fruit does a pick need to bear for it to provide higher value/ROI than JRob?

Nobody has yet to quantify this for me. I think we should mock up last years 2nd round picks and this years 2nd round picks and compare.....

At some point, you just have to be honest with reality.

Why would someone pay a first round pick for an RB whose team just spent a 1st round pick at the same position on a more talented back? Seriously, if you are a team with a projected mid first in 22 and you are looking to improve, why would you trade that pick for an RB who is not on track to start and is projected to lose around 35-45% of last season's volume? What does that do for you?

It's just lunacy. There's no upside to it.

Even if you legitimately think Robinson remains the starter and doesn't lose much volume, why wouldn't you just wait until that happens and pay the same price as opposed to paying that price now when popular belief is Etienne is going to eat into his share?

It's not a matter of overrating a draft pick. It's a matter of knowing that a future 1st or 2nd is a guarantee to ascend in value. Robinson is not a guarantee and could just as easily continue declining in value if Etienne is as good as his pedigree.

There are better and more practical uses of a 1st. I could understand paying a 2nd if you have Etienne and just want the handcuff, but that's about it.

You still have not answered the question...... to say that someone is not worth "X pick", assumes that "X pick" will net better production and value than JRob. Im simply asking what that production and ROI from "X pick" is....Instead, you dance around answering that simple question. Its much easier to choose to say JRob wont replicate a much broader claim, instead of choosing to say who will actually outproduce him. Even if you thought JRob wouldnt do it again, the player at the pick hasnt even done it ONCE. All Im asking for you to do is show me a player drafted in the 2nd round this year that will outproduce Robinson this year and beyond.

I will patiently wait for your bold claim.

[thebeast]

If I'm Etienne I'm ecstatic right now at the prospect of playing mostly WR and being used like Percy Harvin. Far less wear and tear on the body and if he can get reclassified he will earn far more money over the course of his career, so he is motivated to do all he can to be more WR than RB. Here we go again. This is where I'm at, in a 12 team PPR league, sell Robinson for mid-first or better, buy high second or less, hold for less than a mid-first.

Come on man. Etienne is not going to be mostly a WR. He's a RB, who gradually improved as a receiver during his college career. This is an obvious attempt to pump his value for a sell in a league.

Robinson is not worth anything close to a mid first in any format right now. I can't think of a reason why someone would pay that for an RB whose team just spent a 1st on a more talented back.

Ingram was worth a mid first for a long time while sharing a backfield with Kamara. You have no idea how Jax will use ETN, everyone assumes too much. This thread was filled with all the people saying Robinson was going to lose his opportunity to a bunch of other guys last year. I get it ETN is very talented, but it doesn’t sound like Jac wants him to be a 3 down RB. And if you read my post I say sell for a mid first and buy for a high second or less. In this rookie class I value Jrob equal to Sermon. Make no mistake, given the choice between ETN and Jrob I’ll take ETN, but I think they can both have good value.

[jenkins.math]

So many people are saying JRob isnt worth "X".....but ever since I doubled down on JRob a year ago I have posed a very simple question that any naysayer has yet to truly answer....

what kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 1st round pick?
What kind of production is worth/expected to come from a 2nd round pick?

1 year of top 10 production?
2 years of top 10 production?

How much fruit does a pick need to bear for it to provide higher value/ROI than JRob?

Nobody has yet to quantify this for me. I think we should mock up last years 2nd round picks and this years 2nd round picks and compare.....

Nobody has quantified it because it can't be quantified that simply. To do so would imply that all picks hold the same value for each draft class, which we know isn't true. 2020 was valued higher than a lot of drafts, the 1.01 is more valuable when you have a Saquon or Zeke, etc.

Then to use a 2 year sample size when we are talking dynasty here doesn't make much sense either. Youre going to have some very skewed numbers based on someone like Justin Jefferson bursting on the scene as a late first or Antonio Gibson crushing it as a 2nd rounder.

We get it that you think JRob should be valued higher than he currently is. You should use that to your advantage and scooping up all the shares you can. For a contender I think he will give you a solid return on your mid-late 2nd round investment if you're in dire need of RB help this year.

[Ruggenater]

There’s an article on FantasyPros every year called “What’s a Dynasty Rookie Pick Actually Worth?” (or something close to that). It runs through the average production of players taken in different ranges of rookie drafts. The results are… pretty uninspiring. However, there’s a ton of variance—as you know, some picks turn into uber studs, some are complete busts, and most are somewhere in between. You’re buying a lottery ticket when you trade for a rookie draft pick, and the possibility that you hit on it is what we’re saying is worth more than JRob right now. The hit rate on mid-2nds is terrible, but I’d sell my last share of JRob for that, because I see his future outlook as Latavius Murray on the Saints (roster-clogger outside of a few instances when Kamara is banged up).

[Cameron Giles]

You still have not answered the question...... to say that someone is not worth "X pick", assumes that "X pick" will net better production and value than JRob. Im simply asking what that production and ROI from "X pick" is....Instead, you dance around answering that simple question. Its much easier to choose to say JRob wont replicate a much broader claim, instead of choosing to say who will actually outproduce him. Even if you thought JRob wouldnt do it again, the player at the pick hasnt even done it ONCE. All Im asking for you to do is show me a player drafted in the 2nd round this year that will outproduce Robinson this year and beyond.

I will patiently wait for your bold claim.

You're asking solely about production when that's not the complete train of thought.

A 1st or 2nd round draft pick is guaranteed to increase in value from now until the draft. Even if it's a late pick, it will gain some sort of value.

Robinson is a guarantee to lose a significant portion of his volume from last season and going forward. Loss in volume = loss in points = loss in value.

So again...why would I trade a growing asset for a player who I already know is losing volume, points, and value? What does that do for me? Trading a 1st is ridiculous. Trading a 2nd is much more logical, but it wouldn't be my preferred way of using it.

Once you get to the production question, you can find a committee RB with a higher pedigree in the 2nd round of most rookie drafts. Guys like Michael Carter and Chuba Hubbard both have 2nd round rookie value right now. Will one of them put up a 1000 yard season? I don't think so, but it's irrelevant because Robinson no longer has the volume that got him to a 1000 yard season to begin with.

[Cameron Giles]

Ingram was worth a mid first for a long time while sharing a backfield with Kamara. You have no idea how Jax will use ETN, everyone assumes too much. This thread was filled with all the people saying Robinson was going to lose his opportunity to a bunch of other guys last year. I get it ETN is very talented, but it doesn’t sound like Jac wants him to be a 3 down RB.

Etienne doesn't have to be a three-down RB to eat significantly into Robinson's volume. I'm not even arguing that Robinson is going to sit on the bench and not play. He's definitely going to have a role and play.

And if you read my post I say sell for a mid first and buy for a high second or less. In this rookie class I value Jrob equal to Sermon. Make no mistake, given the choice between ETN and Jrob I’ll take ETN, but I think they can both have good value.

If you say "sell for a mid-first" that implies that even on the high end, there are people considering giving you a mid-first for him right now.

Why would someone give up a 1st for Robinson right now?

[Bronco Billy]

A lot of people are making some pretty bold assumptions with very little evidence to support their position - because right now no one knows how Meyer and Bevell will set up the JAX offense.

I’ve written a couple of posts between this thread and the Etienne thread that it is entirely conceivable given the histories of Meyer and Bevell that this offense could support 2 RBs - with Robinson approximately repeating last year’s performance and Etienne getting enough opportunity in a role similar to the way Meyer has used slash type players throughout his coaching career to get Etienne approximately 200 touches.

It really starts to make even more sense now that the NFL is going to 17 games. And that at least has some historical support of what the HC and OC have a decided history in doing, which is to establish a power running game to set up the passing game, and then simultaneously using a versatile flexible stud player in multiple locations across the offense as a dual RB/WR hybrid in Meyer’s case.

[thebeast]

Ingram was worth a mid first for a long time while sharing a backfield with Kamara. You have no idea how Jax will use ETN, everyone assumes too much. This thread was filled with all the people saying Robinson was going to lose his opportunity to a bunch of other guys last year. I get it ETN is very talented, but it doesn’t sound like Jac wants him to be a 3 down RB.

Etienne doesn't have to be a three-down RB to eat significantly into Robinson's volume. I'm not even arguing that Robinson is going to sit on the bench and not play. He's definitely going to have a role and play.

And if you read my post I say sell for a mid first and buy for a high second or less. In this rookie class I value Jrob equal to Sermon. Make no mistake, given the choice between ETN and Jrob I’ll take ETN, but I think they can both have good value.

If you say "sell for a mid-first" that implies that even on the high end, there are people considering giving you a mid-first for him right now.

Why would someone give up a 1st for Robinson right now?

That isn't the implication at all. No one may offer me a mid first again for Robinson, which is fine, that means I will be holding and that is my recommendation. I like his chances more than I like those of the guys after Waddle/Williams.

Robinson is a guarantee to lose a significant portion of his volume from last season and going forward. Loss in volume = loss in points = loss in value.

This is the problem with this thread. There are no guarantees. Just because you think it and it makes sense to you based on what you think you know doesn't make it so. You could be right or you may be completely wrong, but to state guarantees, at least for me, seriously weakens your analytical credibility.

[Ice]

I get the passion for Robinson by some in this thread but anyone who doesn't think ETN will have a negative impact on Robinson's production going forward is nuts.

While there are no guarantees any legit fantasy player will asses value due to situation and you're blind if you don't consider the impact.

Prior to the Draft Robinson was playing at a mid 1st rookie pick level. He faced defenses that sat back and defended the pass so safeties played deeper which helped him some.

After the draft Robinson's real value has dropped by a full round so most would not give more than a mid 2nd.

We won't know for sure until another season happens but anyone paying a mid first rookie pick for Robinson today is foolish given the information available.

[Cameron Giles]

This is the problem with this thread. There are no guarantees. Just because you think it and it makes sense to you based on what you think you know doesn't make it so. You could be right or you may be completely wrong, but to state guarantees, at least for me, seriously weakens your analytical credibility.

Robinson had 289 touches last season. The team just drafted an RB. Outside of injury, which always changes everything, how isn't it a guarantee that he's going to lose significant volume next season?

Even if Etienne lines up at WR in two back sets, him getting touches there still takes away from Robinson.

Mike Clay's been doing projections for years and he currently has Etienne at 192 and Robinson at 198. That's almost a 100 touch drop. If you're looking for an analytical explanation, that's as straight forward as it gets. I'm not even arguing that Robinson won't have a role. I've said before that a 50/50 split is realistic.

If anything, I'd like to see your analytical explanation to why Robinson will sustain or improve volume next season.

hat isn't the implication at all. No one may offer me a mid first again for Robinson, which is fine, that means I will be holding and that is my recommendation. I like his chances more than I like those of the guys after Waddle/Williams.

But again, given the information we currently know, why is setting the bar at a mid-first for an RB who is going to lose significant volume even practical?

Sure, I'd like to sell a 250,000 house for 500,000, but at the end of the day it's not based on anything other than my personal feeling, then it's not real value.

[CGW]

A lot of people are making some pretty bold assumptions with very little evidence to support their position - because right now no one knows how Meyer and Bevell will set up the JAX offense.

I’ve written a couple of posts between this thread and the Etienne thread that it is entirely conceivable given the histories of Meyer and Bevell that this offense could support 2 RBs - with Robinson approximately repeating last year’s performance and Etienne getting enough opportunity in a role similar to the way Meyer has used slash type players throughout his coaching career to get Etienne approximately 200 touches.

It really starts to make even more sense now that the NFL is going to 17 games. And that at least has some historical support of what the HC and OC have a decided history in doing, which is to establish a power running game to set up the passing game, and then simultaneously using a versatile flexible stud player in multiple locations across the offense as a dual RB/WR hybrid in Meyer’s case.

I agree, the offense could support two RBs for some fantasy relevance in 2021. Several teams have multiple RB options. Unfortunately, for fantasy purposes its almost never a positive. Looking historically, your 200attempta for ETN seems very realistic. For historical reference, 1st round RBs over the last 11 years have averaged 201 rushing attempts in their rookie seasons. The only 1st round RBs drafted since 2010 to have less than 200 total touches were Penny (86att, 9rec), CMC(117att, 80rec), Wilson(71att, 4rec), and Ingram(122att, 11rec).

I think the big assumption here is that JR can repeat his 2020 volume. He had zero competition last year. He had an 86% opportunity share in rushing and 55% in targets to the RBs. Even assuming he doesn't miss a single game, it's unlikely he gets anywhere near those numbers, and that's the problem.

So in the most optimistic scenario I can even imagine (ETN is worse than Penny or Wilson), JR is a middle of the pack RB2. And that requires a dynamic first round back to be largely a bust in year 1 and the Jags to run the ball nearly 200 times more than they did last year?

So yeah, I get it - we don't know what the offense looks like. What we do know is they spent a 1st round rookie pick on a dynamic RB when they really had bigger holes and that 1st round rookie RBs get loads of opportunity share.