James Robinson

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kmbryant09
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Re: James Robinson

Postby kmbryant09 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:42 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:30 pm
TimeWillTell wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:28 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:06 pm

Yes. I try to not adhere to take lock. With a player like him, I need more of a sample size, though, but he's looking good. Minshew, on the other hand.....
Not trying to catch you in your own words, just legitimately asking. He's looking like a rare bright spot on a bad team. I’m happy for him, especially in a year that is unkind to undrafted rookies, he's really seized his opportunity.
He has. I was saying, as a UDFA, a few good games aren't the same as CEH, coming in. I look at them differently after 2 games. However, after 7, Robinson is still looking good, so I am shifting my view, after more of a sample size on a UDFA. I don't have the same view of him after a few weeks, as I do right now. He's moved up for me. There is still risk with him, but far less, at this point. Far less.

BTW. I am cheering for him. Love to see this type of thing. Hope he has a great career, even though I missed out in FF, on the cheap.
So 7 weeks is impactful to your evaluation but 3-4 isn't?

I'm sort of just giving you a hard time, as I get what you are saying


But in dynasty football, we aren't always afforded the luxury of time to make roster-changing decisions. After 3-4 weeks, Robinson was sitting inside the top10 RB's in production despite being on an awful offense...and yet people wouldn't give up more than a 2nd for him. He showed plus skills in both the run game and pass game, was the unquestioned starter, and looked mostly matchup proof due to his usage in the pass game.

I'm not saying he should be looked at like a stud and worth 2-3x 1sts after a month, but too many dynasty owners are afraid to "buy-high" on an unproven, imperfect player before they've truly broken out into a multi-year stud. The problem with that logic is they think they can buy an established stud for a 1st or a 1st + prospect - which isn't the case.

For those daring enough to "buy-high" early into a players career, you could be sitting with A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, T. Higgins, J. Jefferson for the cost of a future mid-first (plus a sweetener?). And you could have J. Robinson, A. Gibson, T. McLaurin, Di. Johnson, D. Slayton, etc etc for the cost of a 2nd rounder.

Of course there will be misses, but the downside is a single pick. The upside is buying low (when you thought you were buying high) on a future stud for a very cheap pick or two.

Sorry for the digression. Back on topic - what's Robinson's value now?? Are we still trading him away for a future random 1st?
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich

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Re: James Robinson

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:54 pm

kmbryant09 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:42 pmSorry for the digression. Back on topic - what's Robinson's value now?? Are we still trading him away for a future random 1st?
I broke down and paid a mid first for him. I kind of had to. I lost Sanders to injury, Bell to a trade, Gaskin to a bye week, and Ekeler to injury. I needed a RB, nothing on the WW, and there was only one team willing to trade. The only RB they had was Robinson and the only thing he would take was my first rounder.

I gave in. Can't complain with the results so far though. 5-2.
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Re: James Robinson

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:22 pm

kmbryant09 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:42 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:30 pm
TimeWillTell wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:28 pm
Not trying to catch you in your own words, just legitimately asking. He's looking like a rare bright spot on a bad team. I’m happy for him, especially in a year that is unkind to undrafted rookies, he's really seized his opportunity.
He has. I was saying, as a UDFA, a few good games aren't the same as CEH, coming in. I look at them differently after 2 games. However, after 7, Robinson is still looking good, so I am shifting my view, after more of a sample size on a UDFA. I don't have the same view of him after a few weeks, as I do right now. He's moved up for me. There is still risk with him, but far less, at this point. Far less.

BTW. I am cheering for him. Love to see this type of thing. Hope he has a great career, even though I missed out in FF, on the cheap.
So 7 weeks is impactful to your evaluation but 3-4 isn't?

I'm sort of just giving you a hard time, as I get what you are saying


But in dynasty football, we aren't always afforded the luxury of time to make roster-changing decisions. After 3-4 weeks, Robinson was sitting inside the top10 RB's in production despite being on an awful offense...and yet people wouldn't give up more than a 2nd for him. He showed plus skills in both the run game and pass game, was the unquestioned starter, and looked mostly matchup proof due to his usage in the pass game.

I'm not saying he should be looked at like a stud and worth 2-3x 1sts after a month, but too many dynasty owners are afraid to "buy-high" on an unproven, imperfect player before they've truly broken out into a multi-year stud. The problem with that logic is they think they can buy an established stud for a 1st or a 1st + prospect - which isn't the case.

For those daring enough to "buy-high" early into a players career, you could be sitting with A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, T. Higgins, J. Jefferson for the cost of a future mid-first (plus a sweetener?). And you could have J. Robinson, A. Gibson, T. McLaurin, Di. Johnson, D. Slayton, etc etc for the cost of a 2nd rounder.

Of course there will be misses, but the downside is a single pick. The upside is buying low (when you thought you were buying high) on a future stud for a very cheap pick or two.

Sorry for the digression. Back on topic - what's Robinson's value now?? Are we still trading him away for a future random 1st?
Correct. When evaluating a UDFA on a team that had nothing on the depth chart, vs a guy like a first round pick. Yes. That's what it takes for ME. The players I bolded, I would not have traded for a random first and some sweetener a few weeks into their career. Their profiles are different. You are also cherry picking your 2nd round examples. Robinson has done very well. I'm happy for him. I'm also not going to buy in on the next UDFA after 3-4 games. That's how I do things. You're more than inclined to do things differently. I don't begrudge you for the comment, either. I would certainly not trade him for a random first, if contending. Rebuild? Depends on the outlook and length of rebuild. Also would depend on format, like SF/TE premium, in a multi year project, if that was the best I could get, yeah, I probably would.
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Re: James Robinson

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:09 pm

Armstead declared out the rest of the year due to Covid. Some ppl worried that Robinson is dominating touches because of no competition for touches. Some people saying they want to see the touch distribution when Armstead and Ozigbo come back.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def

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Re: James Robinson

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:23 pm

Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:09 pm Armstead declared out the rest of the year due to Covid. Some ppl worried that Robinson is dominating touches because of no competition for touches. Some people saying they want to see the touch distribution when Armstead and Ozigbo come back.
Yeah, Armstead hasn't been mentioned for a month at least, in that capacity, to my knowledge. Not by a group of people, certainly, to be qualified as "some". Ozigbo is back, though. I don't think your comment is relevant to the last month at all. Kind of seems like a low key gloat post, but maybe I'm wrong. I don't know your history on the topic. If you called Robinson as the guy, good for you. He should definitely be the guy going forward.
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Re: James Robinson

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:48 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:23 pm
Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:09 pm Armstead declared out the rest of the year due to Covid. Some ppl worried that Robinson is dominating touches because of no competition for touches. Some people saying they want to see the touch distribution when Armstead and Ozigbo come back.
Yeah, Armstead hasn't been mentioned for a month at least, in that capacity, to my knowledge. Not by a group of people, certainly, to be qualified as "some". Ozigbo is back, though. I don't think your comment is relevant to the last month at all. Kind of seems like a low key gloat post, but maybe I'm wrong. I don't know your history on the topic. If you called Robinson as the guy, good for you. He should definitely be the guy going forward.
Nope, no gloating, simply stating facts. I scooped him up for free in the offseason in every one of my leagues but one. I've been low key feeling out the trade market but could not find good offers in my 1 RB leagues. Over the last three weeks or so, I've been told by a number of other owners that their interest was tempered by the idea/fact that Robinson has had so little/no competition, including as recently as late last week.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Lord_Varys » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:38 am

RB3 overall. Jackpot.
Hope everyone who sold for a 2nd round pick can find a bellcow RB1 with it.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby Space Cowboy » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:57 am

The guy is legit and then some. People need to get over draft status, it's 97% irrelevant once the pads come on.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby CGW » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:15 am

Space Cowboy wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:57 am The guy is legit and then some. People need to get over draft status, it's 97% irrelevant once the pads come on.
When someone can show me the magic formula that is more predictive than draft status I'll gladly do that. Unfortunately, all rookies have 0 NFL snaps prior to their first game...so I'll probably stick to draft capital for judging prospects.

He's a great story. So far he's become part of the 7% of UDFA that go on to being successful. I didn't get to claim him in any league, but it's great for anyone who did. He has no competition for touches and wont the remainder of the year due to Armstead being pretty well ruled out. He's used in the rushing game and passing game. He's an excellent RB for competitors this year... may even win some leagues.

But...I'm sticking by my process for rookie analysis. I don't have the film study skills that NFL scouts do. That means trusting draft capital and statistics, and selling waiver pickups when they "hit". I'll miss the occaission James Robinson... but I'm 100% fine with that.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: James Robinson

Postby failblazer » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:47 pm

There is still every chance that the Jags tackle the position in the 2021 draft, with 2 1sts and 2 2nds but he is certainly a great guy to have on contending squads. Time will ultimately tell beyond that. I only have one share and it is on a team that needs him in the lineup so I don't have a decision to make.
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C. McCaffrey, N. Harris, C. Hubbard
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, D. Johnson, G. Davis, D. Mims, J. Palmer
D. Waller, C. Kmet, B. Jordan

C. Young, R. Quinn
D. Leonard, M. Milano, C. Mosely, B. Okereke, J. Davis
J. Simmons, J. Fuller

Picks - 1.01, 2.12, 3.01, 3.15, 4.14

16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 5 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, J. Fields
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Dobbins, M. Davis
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N. Fant, A. Okwugbunam, J. Harris
J. Elliott

D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
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Re: James Robinson

Postby Lord_Varys » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:20 pm

failblazer wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:47 pm There is still every chance that the Jags tackle the position in the 2021 draft
If JRob suffers a serious injury, sure.

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Re: James Robinson

Postby murphysxm » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:23 pm

Lord_Varys wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:20 pm
failblazer wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:47 pm There is still every chance that the Jags tackle the position in the 2021 draft
If JRob suffers a serious injury, sure.
I actually would be very surprised if the don't address the position in the draft or FA. There is nothing behind him. Not sayng it will be high draft capital or planned competition, but they will add some depth.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: James Robinson

Postby CGW » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:45 pm

murphysxm wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:23 pm
Lord_Varys wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:20 pm
failblazer wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:47 pm There is still every chance that the Jags tackle the position in the 2021 draft
If JRob suffers a serious injury, sure.
I actually would be very surprised if the don't address the position in the draft or FA. There is nothing behind him. Not sayng it will be high draft capital or planned competition, but they will add some depth.
100% absolutely will add RB depth. No team wants to go into a 17 game season with 1 single runningback, regardless of who it is.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: James Robinson

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:56 pm

Lord_Varys wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:38 am RB3 overall. Jackpot.
Hope everyone who sold for a 2nd round pick can find a bellcow RB1 with it.
LOL. No need to be like that. Everyone that sold for a 2nd still came out on top, if he was a WW add. Anyone who picked up Robinson got some form of win of a free add. Some just got more than others, if they held this long. I wish I had added him and could come here to complain about trading him too early, and "only" getting a free 2nd. Unfortunately, I did not add him. My biggest add for nothing was Logan Thomas this year, I think. Can't win them all.
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Re: James Robinson

Postby jjleurquin » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:24 pm

CGW wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:15 am
Space Cowboy wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:57 am The guy is legit and then some. People need to get over draft status, it's 97% irrelevant once the pads come on.
When someone can show me the magic formula that is more predictive than draft status I'll gladly do that. Unfortunately, all rookies have 0 NFL snaps prior to their first game...so I'll probably stick to draft capital for judging prospects.

He's a great story. So far he's become part of the 7% of UDFA that go on to being successful. I didn't get to claim him in any league, but it's great for anyone who did. He has no competition for touches and wont the remainder of the year due to Armstead being pretty well ruled out. He's used in the rushing game and passing game. He's an excellent RB for competitors this year... may even win some leagues.

But...I'm sticking by my process for rookie analysis. I don't have the film study skills that NFL scouts do. That means trusting draft capital and statistics, and selling waiver pickups when they "hit". I'll miss the occaission James Robinson... but I'm 100% fine with that.
I get that strategy, you should also think about adding in rookie RBs who start in their first career game. This would net you guys like Carson and JRob.


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