James Robinson

[usps33]

I was all in on jrob before anyone I know, bc he dominated at my local college and I saw him so much more than most.



But the level of satisfaction and i told you so's in this thread is hysterical.

Calm down.

I’ve been all in since watching James Robinson running over kids at Rockford Lutheran High School, he was incredible.

Anyone here lucky enough to see him playing in elementary school?

[kadun2]

I was all in on jrob before anyone I know, bc he dominated at my local college and I saw him so much more than most.



But the level of satisfaction and i told you so's in this thread is hysterical.

Calm down.

Ooooooooooooook finnnnnnnnnne

Can I keep the avatar though?

I say keep rockin’ the avatar I love it.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Keep the avatar, , but it has to stay for 2 years. It will be your badge of honor or your mark of shame. Time will tell.

[Cameron Giles]

If this was a 1st or 2nd rd RB we would all be saying this RB is the greatest thing. Now the kid is an UDFA no one likes him and the team needs to be replaced? Come on guys the guy looks great. Stop trying to find flaws!!!!!

If you've played dynasty long enough, then you understand why people still won't offer more than a 2nd for him and why the skepticism is justified despite him playing fine.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

If this was a 1st or 2nd rd RB we would all be saying this RB is the greatest thing. Now the kid is an UDFA no one likes him and the team needs to be replaced? Come on guys the guy looks great. Stop trying to find flaws!!!!!

If you've played dynasty long enough, then you understand why people still won't offer more than a 2nd for him despite the start and why the skepticism is justified despite him playing fine.

Its like no one has listened to or acknowledged a single reason we are concerned. We have hardly questioned his talent(whatever that means) or if he looks good.

[kadun2]

He’s a fun guy to root for. It’s obvious you can argue about strategy all day. I don’t play in big money leagues so keeping a guy like Robinson on my roster as opposed to trading for whatever pick he is supposed to be worth is a lot of fun and worth it, imo, if you got him for pretty much nothing. That’s what this game is all about, finding hidden gems and hoping they pan out. No one has a crystal ball, and that’s really what fuels this game and this forum, the unknown.

[mild]

Keep the avatar, , but it has to stay for 2 years. It will be your badge of honor or your mark of shame. Time will tell.

Brilliant.

[The MAC Machine]

Keep the avatar, , but it has to stay for 2 years. It will be your badge of honor or your mark of shame. Time will tell.

Brilliant.

Fair enough. Give the people what they want. I vow to keep this avatar until the end of the 2021 season. Something we can all laugh and have a virtual drink over one day. To me that is the most important thing!! Cheers to community, good times, high spirits, and bold obnoxious predictions.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Keep the avatar, , but it has to stay for 2 years. It will be your badge of honor or your mark of shame. Time will tell.

Brilliant.

Fair enough. Give the people what they want. I vow to keep this avatar until the end of the 2021 season. Something we can all laugh and have a virtual drink over one day. To me that is the most important thing!! Cheers to community, good times, high spirits, and bold obnoxious predictions.

Haha. Sounds fun. Love your attitude.

[The MAC Machine]

Also

I found this article today....pretty funny story. If you haven’t read this article I think there are some nuggets in here worth noting.

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2020/0 ... -robinson/

[RCogburn]

He’s a fun guy to root for. It’s obvious you can argue about strategy all day. I don’t play in big money leagues so keeping a guy like Robinson on my roster as opposed to trading for whatever pick he is supposed to be worth is a lot of fun and worth it, imo, if you got him for pretty much nothing. That’s what this game is all about, finding hidden gems and hoping they pan out. No one has a crystal ball, and that’s really what fuels this game and this forum, the unknown.

This exactly. Picked him up for free before camp started. He's a great story and it's fun having him on my roster.

[Factory of Sadness]

As a UDFA he is likely dumped as soon as he suffers any kind of significant injury, or has a sustained run of poor performances. Simply for that reason, he is undoubtedly high risk. There are a couple of important caveats here though for the people certain that he is fool's gold.

The first is that teams with a working running game are just not going to go out of their way to spend significant draft capital on a RB in the NFL as it is currently operating. It's possible that some of of the one-hit wonders of the past could have gotten more of a run but for the philosophical commitment most teams had back then to having a top talent at RB. That commitment just isn't there anymore.

The second is that he is a big powerful back who is good in the passing game. That means there is no need to necessarily jam him into a committee. I love Lindsay and think the Broncos did him dirty with the Gordon signing, but he was always going to share the load with someone. Robinson can be effective in the passing game, and they have Shenault who they want to take some RB style dumps and screens, so there's no real need to grab a high-end scat back. They also don't need a goal-line banger as he is a strong, violent runner. Of course Armstead and Ozigno are going to siphon some touches when they return. But there's no real need to have either of them take some of his role away. If anything, Thompson might be under more threat as the passing game specialist.

So you have a back playing well in all phases. He is more than decent in the passing game. He is a violent, decisive tone-setter. The Jags love his character. They have soooo many holes on that D. Their run game looks good. The odds say he vanishes, but there's enough to think about with Robinson to make this more complicated than some of you would have it. If he gets hurt, it's over. If he stays healthy though then there is a chance this could be more than a one year run. What's that worth to a team looking to win ships?

[FiremanEd]

The production to date has been a massive value and perhaps game changer for some rosters. He’s exactly the type of gem everyone seeks to uncover. The short term has good opportunity to keep it going given the teams they play.

That said, as good as the short term has been and looks, there are long term risks. It could go either way truthfully. We can’t know for sure if the UDFA has to add injury recovery to his outlook going into next season, or what the Jags will do short term (when other backs get healthy) or long term (for RB depth, including potential ‘committee’). Anyone taking a victory lap is doing so far too prematurely and perhaps hasn’t played dynasty long enough to see these things play out. Countless examples of low equity RBs booming and disappearing. It’s a valid risk. It doesn’t happen to them all, and some last longer than others, but it’s a legitimate landline in dynasty value projection to be aware of. Each owner has to assess their dynasty approach and short term needs, as well as own talent evaluation and guess of the Jaguars front office direction guessing, and live with potentially being wrong from a dynasty value perspective in a few months.

From my perspective, a 1st is a sell, a 2nd is based on team need and situation, and a 3rd is a hold. I’m fine riding the wave a few more games to reach the 1st value at this rate, but at that point he seems a must sell and find RB production elsewhere for a playoff run.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

The production to date has been a massive value and perhaps game changer for some rosters. He’s exactly the type of gem everyone seeks to uncover. The short term has good opportunity to keep it going given the teams they play.

That said, as good as the short term has been and looks, there are long term risks. It could go either way truthfully. We can’t know for sure if the UDFA has to add injury recovery to his outlook going into next season, or what the Jags will do short term (when other backs get healthy) or long term (for RB depth, including potential ‘committee’). Anyone taking a victory lap is doing so far too prematurely and perhaps hasn’t played dynasty long enough to see these things play out. Countless examples of low equity RBs booming and disappearing. It’s a valid risk. It doesn’t happen to them all, and some last longer than others, but it’s a legitimate landline in dynasty value projection to be aware of. Each owner has to assess their dynasty approach and short term needs, as well as own talent evaluation and guess of the Jaguars front office direction guessing, and live with potentially being wrong from a dynasty value perspective in a few months.

From my perspective, a 1st is a sell, a 2nd is based on team need and situation, and a 3rd is a hold. I’m fine riding the wave a few more games to reach the 1st value at this rate, but at that point he seems a must sell and find RB production elsewhere for a playoff run.

Great post, as usual, Ed. No speculation, no absolutes, just a great analysis and something for both sides of the Robinson sell/hold debate to consider.

[The MAC Machine]

I think my biggest concern has been highlighting that measuring players in draft picks can be super tricky. They are secure assets, sure, and I understand capturing that security can be important. The more important thing is for us to identify for ourselves what kind of production we would expect from a draft pick. If we havent clearly defined that, then how can we begin to appraise a player in picks? Thats my biggest head scratcher. Every player has a selling point. For those who picked him up and aren’t getting an offer that lines up with the production, at what point is dying on that sword a win? I’m more concerned for those who buy him than I am for those who just picked him up.

This guy makes $600,000 a year with $20,000 in bonuses. If he produces like a top RB at that price, what incentive does a rebuilding team have to invest more money at the position - especially if the salary cap is going down next year? He has 3 years on his rookie contract valued at $2.3M. If hIs production is currently valued at $9.8M and he continues to do well and stay healthy does nobody believe he would get resigned OR that the Jags would renegotiate?

https://overthecap.com/player/james-robinson/9041/