Week 1 Conclusions

[jcc6fd]

Thought it would be fun for us to list out anything we observed in week 1 that we believe is something that is fair to conclude for the rest of the season. I originally wanted to also list overreactions but the post was too long. Probably warrants a separate thread. Criticism for my list is welcome but I hope you'll post your own thoughts too.

1. CEH is for real and will be a consistent fantasy producer. He obviously benefits from the offense, but this is the league's best offense. With an underrated defense he will get plenty of run throughout the season.

2. The entire NYJ offense is doomed. Bell is washed and wouldn't be the Bell of old even on a decent team, but now no RB for that team will produce outside a few TD's.

3. MIN's decision to trade Diggs was a short term and long term mistake.

4. D. Adams is the frontrunner to be the WR1 (and he was prior to the Thomas injury). The offense runs through him.

5. Baker Mayfield is bad and won't be a long term starter in the NFL. All receivers are downgraded because of his incompetence.

6. There is no bellcow in CLE. Maybe this is obvious but Hunt and Chubb are in a near even timeshare. Both will be relevant but neither elite as long as they are both healthy.

7. Nyhiem Hines was/is happening. Philip Rivers was the biggest reason for Austin Ekeler's success. Not that Ekeler isn't very good, but it's because Rivers can't hit downfield passes and relied on short dump offs that he produced RB1 numbers. Enter Hines.

8. Robby Anderson will have his best year. Though Bridgewater isn't a good starting QB, the situation is miles better than the NYJ.

9. Kerryon is done being fantasy relevant. Being replaced by AP, his constant injuries and the presence of Swift make him a bust.

10. Ridley will be a massive fantasy producer this year. He is the preferred red zone target over Julio.

11. Russell Wilson is elite and has the tools to maintain great passing numbers.

12. Cam is healthy and will be a Q1 this year. Whether he is a low end QB1 or high end will be highly dependent on his TD total. He's not an elite passer but he's also working with one of the leagues worst receiver situations.

13. The entire Chargers offense is doomed unless Herbert emerges. Ekeler will get more volume but he won't touch the past two year's production.

14. SF's RB situation is not a legit RBBC unless Mostert gets hurt. He's the lead back.

15. Hopkins is an elite WR regardless of situation. HOU screwed the pooch regardless of his contract situation.

16. Murray is going to be heavily involved in the NO backfield and Kamara is not a good between the tackles RB. Still elite for his receiving usage but he's somewhat capped.

17. Conner is done being fantasy relevant. Not because of Snell but because of injuries.

18. Slayton is the WR1 for the Giants.

19. Fant is emerging and will be a TE1 for years to come.

20. Derrick Henry will continue to disappoint owners through the first part of the season (relative disappointment), but then surprise us all in the later part of the year with massive production when defenses are injured/tired and his size and bruising running is always the most effective.

[bjd5211]

Arizona is going to win 10+ games, but Seattle is the best team in the NFC.

[murphysxm]

Tom Brady is washed/not going to get in rythmn with new personel.
Drew Brees is washed and screwed without MT, gonna be the Kamara show for awhile
My boy Allen Robinson is elite and will once again overcome bad QB play

[jcc6fd]

Arizona is going to win 10+ games, but Seattle is the best team in the NFC.

Agree here

Tom Brady is washed/not going to get in rythmn with new personel.
Drew Brees is washed and screwed without MT, gonna be the Kamara show for awhile
My boy Allen Robinson is elite and will once again overcome bad QB play

Agree on the QBs. I hope you're right on Arob, but he has his work cut out for him

[remedy29]

I'd be careful in drawing too much conclusions based on week 1 alone. It's week 1, some teams are not as ready as others. Teams haven't been able to adjust yet, etc.

Regarding Jets, they always play bad against top defensive fronts. Not all teams have the Bills defensive front.
Same for Cleveland, everyone is piling on Baker because it is fun and he was the number 1 pick, give him some time.
Did we really need week 1 to call Russell Wilson elite?

Regarding Indy, Parris Campbell should be mentioned also. He may be their number 1 WR this year.

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

Agree with most of the things brought up so far.

Because Fant was rightfully mentioned - Hockenson continues to look beastly as well.
He seems to win contested catches at will and is all over the field. Didn't get quite as many looks as I expected sans Golladay, but so far it seems the hopes that the 2019 draft was an elite year at the tight end spot were definitely warranted. Should both be fun to watch if they can stay healthy.

[jcc6fd]

I'd be careful in drawing too much conclusions based on week 1 alone. It's week 1, some teams are not as ready as others. Teams haven't been able to adjust yet, etc.

Regarding Jets, they always play bad against top defensive fronts. Not all teams have the Bills defensive front.
Same for Cleveland, everyone is piling on Baker because it is fun and he was the number 1 pick, give him some time.
Did we really need week 1 to call Russell Wilson elite?

Regarding Indy, Parris Campbell should be mentioned also. He may be their number 1 WR this year.

Totally fair point, but the thrust of this thread is to state what you think you can conclude with only one weeks gameplay to go by. Obviously overreactions will abound.

Disagree with you on Baker. He was bad last year too.

The Wilson comment I felt was warranted from a fantasy perspective because he didn’t have good passing production last year. I believe he’ll be more producitve on the passing front throughout the year compared to last.

I do agree that there should be optimism surrounding Campbell. However I specifically left that out of my conclusions because I think it is too early to conclude on. He definitely seems like the skill type to benefit from short passes by Rivers

[Lord_Varys]

Disagree about Derrick Henry. He ran more routes on MNF than any other game in his professional career. Offense still flows through him. Best is yet to come.

[hockeyBjj]

49ers WR room is cursed

Brady was supposed to have all these weapons in Tampa, but Evans is on one leg and Godwin concussed. So Brady has Gronk, a late round slot WR, a pass catching rb, and a hammer.

Am i talking about edelman/White/Blount? Or Scotty Miller, Rojo, and Fournette? Brady is having groundhog day, except he no longer has Bellicheck

[FantasyFreak]

49ers WR room is cursed

Brady was supposed to have all these weapons in Tampa, but Evans is on one leg and Godwin concussed. So Brady has Gronk, a late round slot WR, a pass catching rb, and a hammer.

Am i talking about edelman/White/Blount? Or Scotty Miller, Rojo, and Fournette? Brady is having groundhog day, except he no longer has Bellicheck

Going to miss that juicy Panthers match up. Damn. Swearinger again. Big surprise. Guy should be fined for that. Suspended even, with his track record.

[murphysxm]

I do agree that there should be optimism surrounding Campbell. However I specifically left that out of my conclusions because I think it is too early to conclude on. He definitely seems like the skill type to benefit from short passes by Rivers

Health aside, he has looked good everytime he has been on the field. Rivers lives on players like him. It is a valid conclusion

[mild]

I'd be careful in drawing too much conclusions based on week 1 alone. It's week 1, some teams are not as ready as others. Teams haven't been able to adjust yet, etc.

I preferred this thread when it was called the "Week 1 overreactions thread" because at least it was slightly self-aware. "Conclusions" seems a bit on the nose...

... oh wait, this is a different thread?

Well, carry on then, I guess.

[jman3134]

Amazing how quickly the sentiment on Arob has changed. Two years ago, this guy couldn't be a wr2 in fantasy and was largely done.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Mapletron is going to be a PROBLEM

[Bot101]

Week 1 conclusion, my super team stunk... Fire sell everyone and rebuild again!