Over/Under-Reactions Week One

[Pullo Vision]

Now that the first game for all teams are done, we have enough data to accurately project how the rest of the season and even some NFL careers will play out.

What are projections that will either look terrifically prescient or horribly off at the end of the season?

-Conner has lost his bell cow role. He'll never be more than a committee back going forward, either this year or future years.

- TY Hilton will rebound as the primary deep threat, despite getting tosses from pop gun Rivers.

--Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones will duke it out to flame out first. Darnold will win when he gets a chance to show what he can do post-Gase.

-Slayton's big play ability will push his production into top 10 by average among WRs. Concerns about his QB will keep his value from breaking into the top 20 by dynasty value.

-Philly's o line won't allow the Eagles to make the playoffs. They make Wentz and the RBs look bad in the process. Sanders' sell high point will prove to have been this summer, and you'd have been able to buy again at a profit after the o line drags down his value.

[PR0v3]

Wentz is a sell. Get rid of him before the majority wakes up and realizes he isn’t very good and Hurts is the future.

[Sriracha]

Underreaction:

JT 3 Down back

JT garnering 6 Receptions on 6 targets at double the efficiency (11.8 yards per reception vs 5.6 yards per reception) of Hines should be getting more attention. Hines, while getting a large target share throughout his career has never displayed efficiency in this area (which is the big reason I do not believe in the Austin Ekeler comparison)

Overreaction:

Josh Allen is now a legitimate passer. The Jets weren't a great defense before they traded away Jamaal Adams to the Seahawks and CJ Mosley opted out due to COVID. They could literally be the least talented defense in the NFL after all is said and done. Allen's stat line looked pretty, but he largely looked like the same QB.

[Jigga94]

I think Connor is losing his lead role for sure. Can't rely on his health and he's a FA next year anyway.

Daniel Jones just played possibly the best defense and still put up 17 fantasy points. He's a buy right now with the pieces around him in that offense. Darnold on the other hand...

Philly looked really bad. Banged up OL and offense in general. I could see it getting worse (Wentz getting hurt) before it gets better.

TB is bad. It's not going to work. Brady is old. Arians is older. It's not a good fit of personnel and scheme. Ok I'm exaggerating a little but TB is looking at a wild card spot at best and I wouldn't be surprised if they missed the playoffs or had a losing record. For fantasy, I'm not sure I want any bit of this offense. They were better off fantasy wise with Jameis

[AussieMate]

Rookie over reaction.

JT is the best receiving back but can't run.
CEH sucks at catching
Ruggs can't stay healthy
Robinson is the best rookie RB
Edwards and Pitman are both myths
Dobbins is the greatest goal line back in history
Akers is blind
Reagor will only ever be a "go long" guy
Van Jefferson has stones for hands
Burrow "Now, you can throw it a mile, but you can't pitch it 3 yards."
Tua was basically invisible, not sure how that is possible from the QB position......


P.S. just incase it wasn't obvious, I'm screwing around here

[mild]

Overreaction:

Josh Allen is now a legitimate passer. The Jets weren't a great defense before they traded away Jamaal Adams to the Seahawks and CJ Mosley opted out due to COVID. They could literally be the least talented defense in the NFL after all is said and done. Allen's stat line looked pretty, but he largely looked like the same QB.

You inspired me...

Underreaction:

Lamar Jackson is now a legitimate passer. I know it was the Browns, and that their secondary was banged up yesterday - but Lamar made tight window after tight window throw. His deep completion to Hollywood Brown would have been considered one of his best throws in 2019, and I don't think we've been giving the touch that he has on his deep ball enough credit.
Regression... just might not be a thing for this dude.

[FantasyFreak]

Wentz is a sell. Get rid of him before the majority wakes up and realizes he isn’t very good and Hurts is the future.

Hurts isn't good either. Wentz did not play well, but he was missing 3 OL to start the game, and a 4th left the game. He had no time. I don't think Hurts is an NFL starter.

[FantasyFreak]

Eagles are a mess. Wentz is trying to do too much. Needs to get rid of the ball, just throw it away. They are a team that appears to be going in the wrong direction. Need a better strength and conditioning program.

Daniel Jones has a bit of Winston in him. Bonehead turnovers are an issue for this kid.

Kyler isn't going to be an elite passer in this league, but he's good enough, and his legs keep D's guessing. Impressed with Kliff adjusting to the NFL.

Please tell me Pete Carroll has seen the light.....

[AussieMate]

Wentz is a sell. Get rid of him before the majority wakes up and realizes he isn’t very good and Hurts is the future.

Hurts isn't good either. Wentz did not play well, but he was missing 3 OL to start the game, and a 4th left the game. He had no time. I don't think Hurts is an NFL starter.

Oh wow, I thought he was being hyperbolic and funny, didn't occur to me it was serious

[FantasyFreak]

Also. Burrow is legit. He can hang in this league. He made a boneheaded play trying to play hero ball. He'll learn from that. That TD run, the way he used the centre, was ultra intelligent. Like a good RB. That drive at the end of the game, the command and poise, says it all to me. Limited off season, and with the game on the line, he steps up against a top D and walks his team down the field like he's been running that offense for years.

[mild]

Kyler isn't going to be an elite passer in this league, but he's good enough, and his legs keep D's guessing. Impressed with Kliff adjusting to the NFL.

I know this is the overreactions thread Freak, but do you really believe this? Because I would like to push back on it.

Behold, the Football Outsiders Deep Ball project from the 2019 season.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... ll-project

Kyler Murray absolutely pops when it comes to deep ball accuracy. With Hopkins now around to give him myriad short-to-intermediate looks, I expect his deep game to truly fly. He put a pearler on the hands of Christian Kirk deep around halfway through the game, Kirk just dropped it. He won't be playing the Niners D front every game... I think he can be elite.

[FantasyFreak]

Kyler isn't going to be an elite passer in this league, but he's good enough, and his legs keep D's guessing. Impressed with Kliff adjusting to the NFL.

I know this is the overreactions thread Freak, but do you really believe this? Because I would like to push back on it.

Behold, the Football Outsiders Deep Ball project from the 2019 season.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... ll-project

Kyler Murray absolutely pops when it comes to deep ball accuracy. With Hopkins now around to give him myriad short-to-intermediate looks, I expect his deep game to truly fly. He put a pearler on the hands of Christian Kirk deep around halfway through the game, Kirk just dropped it. He won't be playing the Niners D front every game... I think he can be elite.

Yeah, I don't think he'll be an elite passer. Elite to me is top 3-5.

[StripesOfKC]

Kyler isn't going to be an elite passer in this league, but he's good enough, and his legs keep D's guessing. Impressed with Kliff adjusting to the NFL.

I know this is the overreactions thread Freak, but do you really believe this? Because I would like to push back on it.

Behold, the Football Outsiders Deep Ball project from the 2019 season.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... ll-project

Kyler Murray absolutely pops when it comes to deep ball accuracy. With Hopkins now around to give him myriad short-to-intermediate looks, I expect his deep game to truly fly. He put a pearler on the hands of Christian Kirk deep around halfway through the game, Kirk just dropped it. He won't be playing the Niners D front every game... I think he can be elite.

Yeah, I don't think he'll be an elite passer. Elite to me is top 3-5.

Dude just went and knocked out the reigning NFC champs in their house

I was lower on him all offseason than the hype (like QB 5-6 "low") but at some point just have to stop hating and putting a ceiling and see that he's defying every expectation while electrifying a team that was a wasteland (like maybe the worst team of the decade in 2018) when he arrived

[Forza_Azzurri]

Under-reaction:

The Cowboys 'are who we thought they were' ... McCarthy is indistinguishable as a coach from The Clapper. This is more of a general football reaction than a fantasy reaction, but when the Cowboys go 8-8 again, there's no way they pay Dak ... so there is some fantasy implications.

[FantasyFreak]

I know this is the overreactions thread Freak, but do you really believe this? Because I would like to push back on it.

Behold, the Football Outsiders Deep Ball project from the 2019 season.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... ll-project

Kyler Murray absolutely pops when it comes to deep ball accuracy. With Hopkins now around to give him myriad short-to-intermediate looks, I expect his deep game to truly fly. He put a pearler on the hands of Christian Kirk deep around halfway through the game, Kirk just dropped it. He won't be playing the Niners D front every game... I think he can be elite.

Yeah, I don't think he'll be an elite passer. Elite to me is top 3-5.

Dude just went and knocked out the reigning NFC champs in their house

I was lower on him all offseason than the hype (like QB 5-6 "low") but at some point just have to stop hating and putting a ceiling and see that he's defying every expectation while electrifying a team that was a wasteland (like maybe the worst team of the decade in 2018) when he arrived

I'm not hating, I just complimented him and his coach. I haven't seen enough to think he's going to be an elite, Mahomes like thrower like some were saying. Relax, I think he's good. I was talking as a passer. Was quite clear, not his overall skill set. Yes, he beat the 49ers, but his YPA were super low, and his rating was 72. I haven't seen anything to suggest an elite passer yet. I don't think he will be. I mean if he couldn't move around the way he can, what would his passer rating be like? His rushing skill sets creates more opportunities for his passing. I could be wrong, I just haven't seen enough to suggest he's going to be that Mahomes like player some people were touting.