Rookie stock watch

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JoshGordonsDealer
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Rookie stock watch

Postby JoshGordonsDealer » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:36 am

Just my thoughts, feel free to add your own. Doing this as much to get my thoughts on paper. Only including players I saw (or saw their team, in some cases).

QBs

Joe Burrow neutral: looked like a rookie QB: flashes of really good play and some horrifying rookie mistakes. I've always figured there would be some adjustment from being able to walk on water at LSU to playing in the NFL.

Tua Tagovailoa slightly up: he'll see the field sooner rather than later imo.

Justin Herbert slightly up: he'll see the field sooner rather than later imo.

RBs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire up: not possible to climb much higher than he is now, but week 1 did everything it could to justify the ADP.

D'Andre Swift slightly up: the drop was... Lions-esque, but he looks like a good route running and KJ looks like garbage. Swift will probably be the passing down back in Detroit with room to grow toward the end of the season.

JK Dobbins slightly up: I'm a huge JK fan but I won't read to much into the Ravens throttling the Browns. Goal line touches are a great sign, he blocked well for Lamar which is huge. I don't think he's "taken over" the backfield yet but he's already forced a RBBC.

Cam Akers slightly down: he looked like he lacked any vision and Brown looked really solid. They trust Brown way more atm and Akers didn't doing anything to change that.

Jonathan Taylor up: at the cost of Mack's career, probably (& disappointingly). He didn't look great on the ground, but who would have guessed he'd be the #1 rookie receiving back of week 1?

AJ Dillon neutral: Jones looked good. Dillon remains a hold for me.

WRs

CeeDee Lamb up: on the field for most of the game, looked explosive and reliable.

Henry Ruggs up: he got schemed touches and looked very at home.

Bryan Edwards down: he did about what we'd expect for any other rookie in his position, but definitely didn't play up to the hype.

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BigBawseRoss
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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby BigBawseRoss » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:03 am

nothin on higgins?

akers splitting work with brown but doing nothing with his touches was alarming for me.

hines also looks like he is going to be more involved than anyone would have ever guessed so that cant help taylor. backfield probably a weekly guessing game honestly.
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Rivers , Rosen, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod
Kamara, McCoy, D FreemanCohen, Bibbs, Clement,J. Allen, ty mont,Ito Smith
K Allen, Hopkins, M Williams, AROB Alshon,KeKe,MVS,T McLaurin
Ebron Graham, Njoku, Irv

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Trubitsky, Dak
Chubb,Mixon, D Henry,Coleman, D Harris, Armstead, Mostert
Hopkins, K Allen, M Evans, C Davis, Watkins, Arob, M Williams, Edleman, J Gordon, Hurd
Ertz, Everett, Fant


team 3
http://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0008

team 4
https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0010

team 5
http://www57.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =0008&O=07

team 6
http://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0004

team 7
https://www51.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0011

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:08 am

Swift is an interesting one. I could easily see his stock being values differently by owners. I think it's still even as I don't want to put much stock in 1 game, but some people probably see the drop and how it could negatively impact his play time moving forward. I think he's already passed KJ and AP shouldn't be in the way for too long. I still think it's an ugly RBBC with the coaches in place there. I don't think this week boosted him much.

I agree with the rest though. Hard not to bump JT up after the Mack injury. Akers has a way to go. I never had him ranked above the top WR of this class as I felt like people were stretching too far for RB. I really liked Lamb and he gets a bump with Jarwin out for the year. Ruggs looked solid and I'm very excited for him. Hoping to see a strong start for Jeudy tonight as well.

Did J. Jefferson play much? I assume Bisi is still the #2 there and Thielen will continue to be a target hog.
Pittman caught a few passes. I was glad to see Parris progress. May have to wait a year or 2 on Pittman.

Any insight on Higgins?
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, D. Jones, Baker
RB: JT, Mostert, Dillon, Gaskin, McFarland, Jeff Wilson, Mattison, Pollard, Damien (IR)
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Preston, Cole, G. Davis, Parris (IR), Mims (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant
2021: 1, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Hurts
RB: CMC (IR), Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, M. Davis, McFarland, Penny, Cohen
WR: DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, Lazard (IR), C. Davis, G. Davis, Washington, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 2, 3, 3

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Pac_Eddy
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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:27 am

Higgins only played 15 snaps and had no targets. Not much to report there. Behind AJ Green, Ross, & Boyd.
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jenkins.math
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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:28 am

Josh Kelley made the most of his opportunities yesterday and may be the number 2 in LA for the rest of the year.

Mack going down is huge for JT's volume this year and I also think Jarwin going down in Dallas will lead to Lamb seeing more targets.

Reagor looks like a DJax clone in that it will be big play or bust for him.

Gibson looks like the pre-hype player everyone thought he was. Not enough volume there to make you feel good about starting him.

Obviously James Robinson needs to be mentioned if he will continue getting 15+ touches every game.

Overall a lot of them looked like rookies and didn't do much. That should be expected under normal circumstances and even more-so this season. I think the only players that had any sort of sizable fantasy bump this year after week 1 were JT, Lamb, Kelley, Robinson, and CEH (although he already had insane expectations).
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Darrel Williams, Gaskin, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, Schultz
K: Butker
D/ST: Titans, Bears
DL: Heyward
LB: K. White
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:37 am

Credit where it's due, it's obv early but MikeH,the artist formerly known as MeUraH (sp?), seems to have nailed Henderson and now Akers. He was far below consensus on both.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby briank » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:48 am

JoshGordonsDealer wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:36 am
Just my thoughts, feel free to add your own. Doing this as much to get my thoughts on paper. Only including players I saw (or saw their team, in some cases).

QBs

Joe Burrow neutral: looked like a rookie QB: flashes of really good play and some horrifying rookie mistakes. I've always figured there would be some adjustment from being able to walk on water at LSU to playing in the NFL.

Tua Tagovailoa slightly up: he'll see the field sooner rather than later imo.

Justin Herbert slightly up: he'll see the field sooner rather than later imo.

RBs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire up: not possible to climb much higher than he is now, but week 1 did everything it could to justify the ADP.

D'Andre Swift slightly up: the drop was... Lions-esque, but he looks like a good route running and KJ looks like garbage. Swift will probably be the passing down back in Detroit with room to grow toward the end of the season.

JK Dobbins slightly up: I'm a huge JK fan but I won't read to much into the Ravens throttling the Browns. Goal line touches are a great sign, he blocked well for Lamar which is huge. I don't think he's "taken over" the backfield yet but he's already forced a RBBC.

Cam Akers slightly down: he looked like he lacked any vision and Brown looked really solid. They trust Brown way more atm and Akers didn't doing anything to change that.

Jonathan Taylor up: at the cost of Mack's career, probably (& disappointingly). He didn't look great on the ground, but who would have guessed he'd be the #1 rookie receiving back of week 1?

AJ Dillon neutral: Jones looked good. Dillon remains a hold for me.

WRs

CeeDee Lamb up: on the field for most of the game, looked explosive and reliable.

Henry Ruggs up: he got schemed touches and looked very at home.

Bryan Edwards down: he did about what we'd expect for any other rookie in his position, but definitely didn't play up to the hype.
I agree with most of these and love the idea of a thread tracking them. I disagree on Burrow. That was about as impressive a rookie debut as we could have hoped for. I love what I saw.

The hype on Edwards was out of control. His value isn't down in my eyes, but I didn't expect him to be a big part of the offense in week 1. He might be down a little in terms of market value.

I think Moss' value is slightly up simply because of how the snaps played out.

Kelley, Robinson, Shenault, Van Jefferson all up a bit in my opinion.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Mayfield/Winston
RB Mixon/A. Jones/Ja. Williams/Bernard/AP
WR Hopkins/Thomas/DJ Moore/Robinson/Jeffery/Preston Williams
TE Ertz/Cook/Hurst

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Roethlisberger/Fitzpatrick
RB Cook/Mixon/J. Robinson/Ja. Williams/Hines
WR Evans/Woods/Cooks/Fuller/Miller/Diontae Johnson
TE Kittle/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Burrow
RB Jacobs/Dobbins/Swift/Dillon
WR Diggs/DJ Moore/AJ Brown/Marquis Brown/Cooks/Ruggs/Davis
TE Engram/Njoku/Irv Smith/Hurst

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 11
QB Jackson/Brees/Rivers
RB Da. Johnson/Gurley
WR Adams/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen/Hilton
TE Kelce/Ertz/Irv

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Goff/Herbert/Tua
RB
WR Juju/Sutton/Juedy/Jefferson/Samuel
TE Kittle/Fant/Njoku
6 2021 1sts

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Ray Finkle » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:43 pm

Kelley’s week 1 workload was nice

Dobbins didn’t get much but he got the touches that made Ingram valuable last season. If Ingram loses or has lost even half a step, JK is gonna be a winner.

Lamb looks like he will mix in right away.

Philly is gonna need Reagor so I’m thinking his arrow is pointed up.

Can’t wait to see Jeudy tonight.

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby PR0v3 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:54 pm

I was happy to see Justin Jefferson make a couple of plays while looking pretty much exactly like how he looked at LSU. His stock slipped due to "not beating out Bisi" but it looks to me like he is as advertised. I think Zimmer is just an old school coach that brings rookies along slowly.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Jimmy G
RB: Taylor, Gibson, Swift, Akers, Dillon, Penny, Mattison, Hines
WR: Boyd, Hollywood, JJettas, Aiyuk, C. Davis, Mims, C. Samuel, A. Miller, Washington, Isabella, Van Jeff.
TE: Andrews, Gesicki, OJ
K: Legatron
2021 picks: 3, 4

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:01 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:54 pm
I was happy to see Justin Jefferson make a couple of plays while looking pretty much exactly like how he looked at LSU. His stock slipped due to "not beating out Bisi" but it looks to me like he is as advertised. I think Zimmer is just an old school coach that brings rookies along slowly.
Zimmer is known for this. It took Stefon Diggs & Adam Thielen a couple years each to get playing time. If you drafted Jefferson for year one production, you'll be disappointed.
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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby vtejrep » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:27 pm

great thread!!
I'll add my thoughts-
Burrow: looked good for the most part. Was under heavy pressure so it was a tough way to start but he kept his composure and still looked in control.
Lamb: just looks like the real deal. He exudes confidence and acts like he's supposed to be great....and he will be.
J.Robinson-solid. can churn inside yards and showed some burst. Definitely is a player to watch.
L.Shenault-pretty nice beginning for someone most thought was a project or a player we'd have to wait on. Again, looks confident.
J.Taylor-didn't get much of a running opportunity but his hands looked good. He looked smaller than i expected. He had one long run after a dump pass where he showed burst and explosion. Broke tackles at the end of the run. Excited to see him some more.
Pittman-wasn't featured much but had 2 catches. Big but will probably need to wait for production.

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby mild » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:29 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:37 am
Credit where it's due, it's obv early but MikeH,the artist formerly known as MeUraH (sp?), seems to have nailed Henderson and now Akers. He was far below consensus on both.
He gets a lot of sh-t around here, but I will always go to bat for the dude. He puts himself out there, and he applies his coaching eye as best as he knows how to a position we all desperately want to nail. It's often the difference between lining up to pick 4th-6th in your draft again, or making the playoffs if you can hit hard on a rookie runner.

He was the one that really opened my eyes first to Dobbins as RB1 too, before that I was all Swift. (He had them 1a/1b)

Good day for him yesterday. JT looking quite normal on the ground matches his calls too. I'll be interested to see if JT getting more workload will mean he gets more into "rhythm" but I wasn't aware that the JAX defense was going to exactly be a run stopper this year...

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Sriracha » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:39 pm

mild wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:29 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:37 am
Credit where it's due, it's obv early but MikeH,the artist formerly known as MeUraH (sp?), seems to have nailed Henderson and now Akers. He was far below consensus on both.
He gets a lot of sh-t around here, but I will always go to bat for the dude. He puts himself out there, and he applies his coaching eye as best as he knows how to a position we all desperately want to nail. It's often the difference between lining up to pick 4th-6th in your draft again, or making the playoffs if you can hit hard on a rookie runner.

He was the one that really opened my eyes first to Dobbins as RB1 too, before that I was all Swift. (He had them 1a/1b)

Good day for him yesterday. JT looking quite normal on the ground matches his calls too. I'll be interested to see if JT getting more workload will mean he gets more into "rhythm" but I wasn't aware that the JAX defense was going to exactly be a run stopper this year...
Slow down boys... It's been 1 game.

Latavius Murray: 15 carries - 48 yards
Alvin Kamara : 12 carries - 16 yards

No one is going to say that Murray is a better rusher than Kamara.

Maybe Mike is right about Akers, and he will be proven correct.. but it's way too early at this point.

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:00 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:39 pm
mild wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:29 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:37 am
Credit where it's due, it's obv early but MikeH,the artist formerly known as MeUraH (sp?), seems to have nailed Henderson and now Akers. He was far below consensus on both.
He gets a lot of sh-t around here, but I will always go to bat for the dude. He puts himself out there, and he applies his coaching eye as best as he knows how to a position we all desperately want to nail. It's often the difference between lining up to pick 4th-6th in your draft again, or making the playoffs if you can hit hard on a rookie runner.

He was the one that really opened my eyes first to Dobbins as RB1 too, before that I was all Swift. (He had them 1a/1b)

Good day for him yesterday. JT looking quite normal on the ground matches his calls too. I'll be interested to see if JT getting more workload will mean he gets more into "rhythm" but I wasn't aware that the JAX defense was going to exactly be a run stopper this year...
Slow down boys... It's been 1 game.

Latavius Murray: 15 carries - 48 yards
Alvin Kamara : 12 carries - 16 yards

No one is going to say that Murray is a better rusher than Kamara.

Maybe Mike is right about Akers, and he will be proven correct.. but it's way too early at this point.
I made sure to have the "it's early" caveat in there 😁.

As an aside, Murray likely is the better straight line rusher, but Kamara is the better all-around RB.

And yes, while it is only 1 game, everything we do is based off of extremely small samples. Hell just a shade under 10% of the regular fantasy season is already over. While it isn't the end all be all, it's not useless data either.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Rookie stock watch

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:43 pm

Cephus looked like he belongs on the field. Someone just needs to remind Stafford that he’s 6’-01” not 6’-10”.


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