Jacksonville backfield, who is the guy?

[The MAC Machine]

But again my approach is rooted in emphasizing the right now, which to me always factors in age and longevity. Thus I never have to worry about trading for picks because I never put myself in a position to need them or having to use them and potentially shooting a blank.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I like this. So basically if the RB isn’t a 3rd round pick their odds drop significantly. So it’s not about Robinson being a UDFA. Its about the general odds outside of being a 3rd round pick.




That’s quite a lazy assumption to assume that because you weren’t selected as a top 224 player that you are not talented. And over your lifetime you’ll have missed out on many great players and opportunities to gain by defaulting to that way of thinking. Granted it’s not as steep of a chance. Bu t nobody is banking on guys like Robinson anyway. There are nice bonuses to be had in that 8% and sometimes those gems can help give you a boost, or prevent that boost from being used against you.

Yeah that's what most people have been getting at. It's not about being a UDFA, although I'm sure if you broke out the numbers, 100-200 has a greater hit rate than being 200+/UDFA... I don't ignore them completely, I am rostering Robinson in a league lol that's not the point though... If you can turn your hit rate from 8 to 80% you do it 100% of the time. You can weed through all the guys that may be part of the 8%, but it's still 8%

But here is my critical thinking pushing back at your point...

For reference, 2nd round RB in the top 100 of the NFL draft this year.

Dillon, Gibson, Vaughn, Miss, Evans, Bowden (if we consider him a RB)

When considering future
Talent
Situation
and Opportunity.

That 80% can produce names and situations like the above. However, critical thinking tells me that on opportunity alone Robinson will outproduce most RBs in these situations RIGHT NOW (at least in the short term). So my question then becomes, why trade an RB that has an opportunity RIGHT NOW, for the opportunity to pick a RB in the future who at best might have more talent, but not the opportunity or situation to contribute in their own immediate futures? (which is still a whole year away) That’s too much foresight for my blood. I’d rather take the free 8% now than wait 2-3 years for the 80%. The better idea would be to know the general worth of a pick in your league and try to garner value by acquiring and flipping the pick like real estate, OR by packaging Robinson with another player with upside for a more established and secure player. Both of those options are better immediate ways to benefit than landing on a pick for the duration of the season.

Very much disagree with this thought process.

But I'm also wondering why you keep bringing up RBs drafted in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts? I've said any 2nd rounder, not just RBs. I actually rarely ever like 2nd round RBs. Like yourself, i'm not a college scout nor do I watch much college football. I tend to use DLF Mike and Dynasty Delorean's scouting reports and blend them together. If they both agree on a RB, I'm generally very high on that RB. If they both disagree, I always fade the guy. If they are mixed I have a decision. But generally, most RBs in the 2nd round they are both down on. Sometimes I'll go with DD's guys, AJ Dillon, David Johnson, etc. But I never grab the Vaughn's and Moss's of the world because both of the guys above are always meh about that type of player. They make a great flip if you get them off waivers but I don't ever see the value in drafting them over the Mecole Hardman/Hollywood Brown/Pittman/Aiyuck types. I just wanted to make that clear. I don't believe you will find better RB value than Robinson/a guy starting an NFL game on average in the 2nd round. But there is better value on average in the 2nd round than Robinson. That's my opinion at least. That's my critical thinking

[CGW]

Come on everyone, only 5 pages until the first half of my bold prediction is correct (20 page thread for Robinson in 2020)

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Come on everyone, only 5 pages until the first half of my bold prediction is correct (20 page thread for Robinson in 2020)

Don't kid yourself. It wasn't a bold prediction. lol

[thebeast]

A couple of thoughts here. Firstly, the coaches have confirmed that he is the starter, that they expect to give him the first carry of the game and that they are excited about him. Secondly, I am not sure from where we get the idea that the Jags are going to be awful offensively. Defensively they look set to stink- which is bad news for a FF RB who doesn't catch the ball, or who is replaced by Thompson, but not a real concern if he is able to pick up some passing game work. But I think they might be sneaky good, or at least sneaky average on O. Things change fast in the NFL and the preconception that they are bad seems to be based on the perception that they are tanking, rather than on a look at their offensive personnel or likely scheme.
As someone who picked up a lot of shares in Robinson, my perception of the sell or not dilemma is that I do want to sell- because the league brutally mistreats even UDFAs who excel. See Lindsay. P- but I don't want to sell now in case he does look like a legit starter for a team that might be better than assumed. Somehow this discussion went from sell for a 3- which was interesting- to sell for a 2 which seems unlikely. Realistically, no-one's giving me a 2 for him right now, so I'd rather risk losing the 3 in hopes that he plays well.
A bunch of teams are about to flip mindsets from value to points in the next few weeks. Some are going to look at line-ups that they expected to have RB depth, but discover that injuries have weakened them. Colts, Titans is a hard way to start, but Dolphins Bengals in weeks 3 and 4 could be a nice showcase for him.
In short, I don't think this is really about if you sell your UDFA - though I remain a Lindsay buyer to be fair - but when you sell him. Right now most people think he is starting because Fournette's an bleep, Armstead got covid and they don't want to name Thompson their starter but plan to pepper him with targets. Some people like Ozigbo. Some like Ogunbowale. IF Robinson really is their guy for this year and is their clear number one, his value will be far higher than it is right now. I think you're gambling a little to potentially win a lot...

Also I want to revisit this nugget....the Jaguars were considering drafting him in the later rounds of the draft, but they decided to target him as a FA immediately after the draft instead. If they had drafted Robinson in the 6th or 7th round, how would that realistically change the outcome, or our opinions on the outcome? Right now many are severely learning on the fact that he is a UDFA. But if he was a 6th, would that really make a difference ?

What’s the most important thing in evaluating a rookie?

Talent, system, or opportunity?

But they didn't? All 32 teams passed on him for 7 full rounds. Don't change the goal post, he is an UDFA regardless of who wanted him and when.

I look at talent and then opportunity for evaluating value. This guy has enough talent to make a roster, but not enough to get drafted. Situationally, he is on a team with no RBs which means he does have some opporrunity. This is precisely why I would be selling. A guy with largely not a ton of talent, but his situation is a plus. Situation changes, talent really doesn't. Even when I absolutely LOVE a dart throw like this, my goal is to flip as soon as it's a hit.

You are too busy worrying about the draft. The draft is over. Teams have now had rookies in for camp and have had an up close look at them to see how they fit into their plans. A lot of late-round picks and udfa's have been cut from their rosters as they didn't have the talent to make the team. Robinson cleared the first hurdle, he made the team. He cleared the second hurdle, he has been named the starting RB and by all accounts his talent in camp impressed the coaches enough that they were comfortable letting Fournette go. The Jags also haven't signed anyone despite there being some veterans available. Things are lining up for the guy better than anyone could have expected. I was offered a 3rd for him this morning and it was a snap reject on my side. I'd rather see what I have. Just because a guy wasn't drafted doesn't mean he doesn't have the talent to play in the league. I already posted about his talent and analysis earlier if you want to look back to see what type of player he is vs just saying he wasn't drafted.

[The MAC Machine]

Yeah that's what most people have been getting at. It's not about being a UDFA, although I'm sure if you broke out the numbers, 100-200 has a greater hit rate than being 200+/UDFA... I don't ignore them completely, I am rostering Robinson in a league lol that's not the point though... If you can turn your hit rate from 8 to 80% you do it 100% of the time. You can weed through all the guys that may be part of the 8%, but it's still 8%

But here is my critical thinking pushing back at your point...

For reference, 2nd round RB in the top 100 of the NFL draft this year.

Dillon, Gibson, Vaughn, Miss, Evans, Bowden (if we consider him a RB)

When considering future
Talent
Situation
and Opportunity.

That 80% can produce names and situations like the above. However, critical thinking tells me that on opportunity alone Robinson will outproduce most RBs in these situations RIGHT NOW (at least in the short term). So my question then becomes, why trade an RB that has an opportunity RIGHT NOW, for the opportunity to pick a RB in the future who at best might have more talent, but not the opportunity or situation to contribute in their own immediate futures? (which is still a whole year away) That’s too much foresight for my blood. I’d rather take the free 8% now than wait 2-3 years for the 80%. The better idea would be to know the general worth of a pick in your league and try to garner value by acquiring and flipping the pick like real estate, OR by packaging Robinson with another player with upside for a more established and secure player. Both of those options are better immediate ways to benefit than landing on a pick for the duration of the season.

Very much disagree with this thought process.

But I'm also wondering why you keep bringing up RBs drafted in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts?

I think it’s simpler to compare the value/production of RB to a RB. It’s much more difficult to do so across positions, especially when there are added variables in dynasty. That’s why, in my opinion, it’s really difficult to accurately measure a player whose talent, situation, and opportunity are more clear, against a pool of players whose outcomes and results are TBD. I’d rather not invest any thought, opportunity, or energy into those players until more things shake out. The more clear you can make things for yourself, the better IMO. That’s a general life rule.

[The MAC Machine]

Come on everyone, only 5 pages until the first half of my bold prediction is correct (20 page thread for Robinson in 2020)

Don't kid yourself. It wasn't a bold prediction. lol

To be clear, a lot of this thread isn’t squarely about James Robinson. Most of it is actually about risk management. It’s just that James Robinson is a more intriguing subject than Jonathan Ward AZ or JJ Taylor NE because of his path to opportunity.

[Bronco Billy]

Come on everyone, only 5 pages until the first half of my bold prediction is correct (20 page thread for Robinson in 2020)

Don't kid yourself. It wasn't a bold prediction. lol

To be clear, a lot of this thread isn’t squarely about James Robinson. Most of it is actually about risk management. It’s just that James Robinson is a more intriguing subject than Jonathan Ward AZ or JJ Taylor NE because of his path to opportunity.

That and his physical profile.

But this is a great discussion about player/pick philosophy.

[Cameron Giles]

But again my approach is rooted in emphasizing the right now, which to me always factors in age and longevity. Thus I never have to worry about trading for picks because I never put myself in a position to need them or having to use them and potentially shooting a blank.

That doesn't really make any sense.

Picks are not limited to just drafting players; they're assets that you can trade for players with. They're basically currency. If you continuously sell players with skeptical value for picks, you can set yourself up for many possibilities in dynasty. Even if it's a 4th or a 3rd, small wins matter in dynasty.

[Cameron Giles]

This debate about Robinson and a 2nd round pick is silly, nobody would offer a 2nd for him as of today. Perhaps a month from now, but not now.

I get that RB outside the top 3 rounds generally do not hit. The also generally do not get opportunity. Further, they also are not considered week 1 starter and a top the depth chart in their first season.

The only thing left for Robinson to do now is to play well with the opportunity that he finds himself in.

That's kind of the problem though. There's nothing about Jacksonville's run game that looks appealing for fantasy success this year. Even if Fournette was still there, there's a significant chance he has a down year.

The only positive thing people have said so far about Robinson as a player is that he's the starting RB on the Jaguars. He beat out the following:

Chris Thompson
UDFA RB (injured)
5th round RB (Covid-19 list)

He won the job, but it's not like he really beat out anyone.

[The MAC Machine]

But again my approach is rooted in emphasizing the right now, which to me always factors in age and longevity. Thus I never have to worry about trading for picks because I never put myself in a position to need them or having to use them and potentially shooting a blank.

That doesn't really make any sense.

Picks are not limited to just drafting players; they're assets that you can trade for players with.

But their range in value is rooted in so much subjectivity. I’d rather package a player like Robinson with a player like Devante Parker to get a Calvin Ridley (that’s an actual offer that’s being considered) or Juju. Because a 2nd is so widely subjective it relies more on the asset its paired with for its value to truly be appreciated.

Devante Parker and a 2nd
is not nearly as strong of a suggestion to some as
Devante Parker and James Robinson.

Even if you believe James Robinson isn’t worth a 2nd.

This debate about Robinson and a 2nd round pick is silly, nobody would offer a 2nd for him as of today. Perhaps a month from now, but not now.

I get that RB outside the top 3 rounds generally do not hit. The also generally do not get opportunity. Further, they also are not considered week 1 starter and a top the depth chart in their first season.

The only thing left for Robinson to do now is to play well with the opportunity that he finds himself in.

That's kind of the problem though. There's nothing about Jacksonville's run game that looks appealing for fantasy success this year. Even if Fournette was still there, there's a significant chance he has a down year.

The only positive thing people have said so far about Robinson as a player is that he's the starting RB on the Jaguars. He beat out the following:

Chris Thompson
UDFA RB (injured)
5th round RB (Covid-19 list)

He won the job, but it's not like he really beat out anyone.

It is truly incredible how avoidant people are in admitting that the Jaguars released Fournette because they were OK with figuring out what they had on their roster. Its almost like everyone is trying to separate that from the equation to justify the narrative that the Jaguars blindly made this decision without considering their next move.

So what do you think happened? They released Fournette and then they turned around and said “Oh, shoot! Hey! Where did this extra young RB come from?”

Come On

[Jigga94]

The Jaguars are tanking.

LF was a locker room cancer they were going to cut regardless of how they felt about the other RB.

James Robinson "won" the job against minimal competition.

Had they kept the headache of LF, he'd be the starter. Don't fool yourself man.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

They might hope that James Robinson is an NFL starting caliber player that they picked up free. They might want to see what they have in him. But most of all, they want the 1.01 and they aren't taking chances. Fournette hurt their chances.

[FantasyFreak]

This debate about Robinson and a 2nd round pick is silly, nobody would offer a 2nd for him as of today. Perhaps a month from now, but not now.

He and Lamical Perine went for a 2nd in a SF league a few days ago, so it's not that silly. Factoring in the added value QB's give to picks for Perine, that's the same as a 2nd in a 1 QB league.

[The MAC Machine]

The Jaguars are tanking.

LF was a locker room cancer they were going to cut regardless of how they felt about the other RB.

And you think they figured that out before or AFTER they signed Robinson?