Jacksonville backfield, who is the guy?

[SteveMaddensShoes]

We aren’t talking about all UDFA RBs. We’re talking about one who has earned the start in week 1 in his rookie year. We already have that information, which trims the field substantially. Completely different discussions that I’d hope you’d be willing to recognize. And I’ll freely concede that Robinson could completely wash out starting this weekend and moving forward. But he’s in a position to outperform a lot of the names on that list.

. But I still think this is why so many teams don’t have monster lineups because they won’t make these trades to accumulate assets.

This is where we disagree..... in another thread we are currently discussing a trade involving Tyler Boyd/Gallup/Justin Jefferson for DJ Moore. Another huge reason people don’t have monster lineups is because people’s evaluation of a player or their opportunity don’t matchup with their actual production. For me I exploit those opportunities in trades consistently year over year to the point where I’ve never actually participated in a rookie draft EVER and have still found ways to build value and maintain success. I’m the guy that’s likely to offer you Dalvin Cook for Kareem Hunt, Juju Smith and MVS or Greg Kittle for Dallas Goedert, Tyler Boyd and James Robinson. If you consistently do that there’s no need to ever use a rookie pick.

Agree trading is a great way to build a team. Trading your draft picks can be a great strategy if people over value the picks. But if that’s the case wouldn’t you want to trade Robinson for a pick someone over valued

I think the tougher the competition you play against the less wins you get trading. You still trade but you don’t win trades off adp discrepancies but rather sharp player evaluation at current adp prices.

But of course, you still win some trades because there are always a few fish in every league. The timing of the trades will be critical of your success of winning trades as well. We all know there are a couple times a year when picks are overvalued and then towards playoffs where they are undervalued. And injuries, etc.

I never meant that drafting a team is the best way to win. But gather assets and then using those assets to grow your team in a multitude of ways.

I just happen to think this is the best time to sell Robinson IF you can get a 2nd because of the unlikelihood of his being able to put up the production necessary to move him into a 1st round value.

I think the chance of multiple good games and holding or rising in value is considerably lower than him putting up a few stinkers, being in a timeshare, getting injured, etc, which would cause his value to fall off the charts.

Think of all Guice went through, injuries, off field, had AP there, etc, and people were still paying a 1st for him occasionally up to the last minute

[Cameron Giles]

Because you already know the outcome of Robinson’s career? Please share those numbers with us. That list didn’t prove anything other than there are a lot more complete busts on it than there are studs.

LOL. The hit rate there is a lot higher than UDFA RB's.

We aren’t talking about all UDFA RBs. We’re talking about one who has earned the start in week 1 in his rookie year.

Oh come on, this is so disingenuous. The hit rate of UDFA RBs is astronomically awful. Here's a list of all UDFA RBs in the last 30 years who've had a 1000+ yard season:

Phillip Lindsay
C.J. Anderson
LeGarrette Blount
Chris Ivory
Arian Foster
Benjarvus Green-Ellis
Fred Jackson
Ryan Grant
Willie Parker
Priest Holmes
Dominic Rhodes
James Allen

That's 12 RBs in 30 years. Now divide those 12 RBs by the amount of UDFA RBs who've played at least 2 seasons in the NFL from 1990-2020.

That's 4%. (12/300)

It simply boggles my mind that people think that James Robinson (without saying anything more than he's the starting RB for arguably the worst team in the league after beating out an old Chris Thompson and another UDFA RB) have nothing else to support the idea that he's going to buck an astronomically low trend.

Hey, if Robinson sustains long-term value, then more power to you. But, I like to play odds and if someone offers me a 2nd round pick for a RB that was on nobody's radar a few weeks ago, I'll play the odds and take that pick. There is a much higher chance of you using that Round 2 pick to sweeten a trade or to draft a player who has more sustainable value.

[CGW]

A random future 2nd has a better range of outcomes on average, and it's not really close.

Players available in picks 2.03-2.12 by ADP rookie drafts from years 2014-2018:


Ajayi, Jay MIA RB
Allen, Josh BUF QB
Ballage, Kalen MIA RB
Beckham, Odell NYG WR
Booker, Devontae DEN RB
Boyd, Tyler CIN WR
Callaway, Antonio CLE WR
Coates, Sammie PIT WR
Cobb, David TEN RB
Collins, Alex SEA RB
Conley, Chris KCC WR
Cooper, Pharoh RAM WR
Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB
Darnold, Sam NYJ QB
Davis, Mike SFO RB
Engram, Evan NYG TE
Everett, Gerald LAR TE
Fuller, Will HOU WR
Gallup, Michael DAL WR
Gesicki, Mike MIA TE
Goedert, Dallas PHI TE
Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR
Hill, Jeremy CIN RB
Hines, Nyheim IND RB
Hooper, Austin ATL TE
Huff, Josh PHI WR
Hurst, Hayden BAL TE
Johnson, David ARI RB
Johnson, Storm JAC RB
Jones, Zay BUF WR
Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR
Lyerla, Colt FA TE
Lynch, Paxton DEN QB
Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
Mariota, Marcus TEN QB
Mason, Tre STL RB
Miller, Anthony CHI WR
Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR
Moore, J'Mon GBP WR
Niklas, Troy ARI TE
Njoku, David CLE TE
Perine, Samaje WAS RB
Perkins, Paul NYG RB
Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
Richardson, Paul SEA WR
Ross, John CIN WR
Samuel, Curtis CAR WR
Seastrunk, Lache TEN RB
Shaheen, Adam CHI TE
Sims, Charles TBB RB
Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR
Smith, Devin NYJ WR
Smith, Tre'Quan NOS WR
St. Brown, Equanimeous GBP WR
Wentz, Carson PHI QB
West, Terrance CLE RB
Williams, Joe SFO RB
Williams, Jonathan BUF RB
Williams, Maxx BAL T

Even though i think your list does a good job of explaining why 2nd round has a hit rate higher than UDFA, the data I see is a bit different. Using Mizelle, i notice a few big names missing. Here's a few guys I call hits from the mizelle 2nd round list from Mizelle September ADP right before each season started (same time as now):

2014 - no September data, sorted by all mocks
15 Devonta Freeman
25 Teddy Bridgewater

2015 - no September data, sorted by all mocks
16 David Johnson
18 Jameis Winston
23 Tyler Lockett

2016 - September
19 Jordan Howard
20 Dak Prescott
21 Hunter Henry
24 Kenyan Drake

2017 - September
14 Kenny Golladay
16 Cooper Kupp
18 Juju Smith-schuster
19 Marlon Mack
21 Curtis Samuel
22 Chris Godwin
24 James Conner

2018 - September
13 Christian Kirk
14 Michael Gallup
17 Mike Gesicki
19 Dallas Goedert
20 Hayden Hurst
24 Nyheim Hines

2019 - September
15 Deebo Samuel
22 Marquise Brown
24 Teddy McLaurin

Obviously this is just the most notable players, but since 2014 there are 25 guys here that currently have or have had significantly higher value than their draft position. That's 34% of the players drafted in the 2nd round.

While it's a small sample size and I'm sure the actual rate is closer to 15-20%, my major takeaway is that in the 2nd round you have a chance to hit Godwin, Juju, Golladay, Brown, Johnson, McLaurin - all guys widely considered top end talent and worth multiple 1sts. UDFA do not give you nearly the same hit rate at serviceable players, nor do they give you any odds at landing a "stud".

[Blueboy]

I have a random question - do we actually know that he is the starter for Week 1? I've seen people say that it's not the coach who puts that depth chart together, but some other random person in the organization. Also, I saw Evan Silva tweet that he's learned to assign no value to these depth charts. Is there other evidence that he is actually the starter? How much confidence do you have that he's actually going to see a plurality of the snaps Week 1?

There's no reason at all to weigh it, you're correct. These depth charts are made by the PR staff, not the coaching staff. It is only a minor confirmation of all the other reports that Robinson has been great in camp.

[The MAC Machine]

. But I still think this is why so many teams don’t have monster lineups because they won’t make these trades to accumulate assets.

This is where we disagree..... in another thread we are currently discussing a trade involving Tyler Boyd/Gallup/Justin Jefferson for DJ Moore. Another huge reason people don’t have monster lineups is because people’s evaluation of a player or their opportunity don’t matchup with their actual production. For me I exploit those opportunities in trades consistently year over year to the point where I’ve never actually participated in a rookie draft EVER and have still found ways to build value and maintain success. I’m the guy that’s likely to offer you Dalvin Cook for Kareem Hunt, Juju Smith and MVS or Greg Kittle for Dallas Goedert, Tyler Boyd and James Robinson. If you consistently do that there’s no need to ever use a rookie pick.

Agree trading is a great way to build a team. Trading your draft picks can be a great strategy if people over value the picks. But if that’s the case wouldn’t you want to trade Robinson for a pick someone over valued

I think the tougher the competition you play against the less wins you get trading. You still trade but you don’t win trades off adp discrepancies but rather sharp player evaluation at current adp prices.

But of course, you still win some trades because there are always a few fish in every league. The timing of the trades will be critical of your success of winning trades as well. We all know there are a couple times a year when picks are overvalued and then towards playoffs where they are undervalued. And injuries, etc.

I never meant that drafting a team is the best way to win. But gather assets and then using those assets to grow your team in a multitude of ways.

I just happen to think this is the best time to sell Robinson IF you can get a 2nd because of the unlikelihood of his being able to put up the production necessary to move him into a 1st round value.

I think the chance of multiple good games and holding or rising in value is considerably lower than him putting up a few stinkers, being in a timeshare, getting injured, etc, which would cause his value to fall off the charts.

Think of all Guice went through, injuries, off field, had AP there, etc, and people were still paying a 1st for him occasionally up to the last minute

I’ve said multiple times in this thread that if I was AWARE of the value I could get for a 2nd round pick I’d trade Robinson in a heartbeat. But not because I intrinsically believe the pick is valuable....but because I’ve measured the market and leveraged it to my secure advantage. To me a 2nd round pick on its own two legs is not a secure advantage in a trade.....it could be eventually. But I like to do what I can to strip the game of as much chance as possible.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

When you look at Cameron Giles llist you also realize you should never pay a 1st for an UDFA that puts up even a 1k yards in a season. How many of those guys were suddenly irrelevant?

I’ll play devils advocate for one point though. I think the nfl has changed and they are looking for value at the rb position and you might see more 1 year UDFAs than in the past. But not enough still to pay a 1st for them.

[nathanq42]

I would happily trade him for a second, or second round equivalent player... But I just won him for essentially 0 FAAB (used all of my summer FAAB budget that reset this morning) and there was one other bid of $0... so looks like im holding until he can play his way into some value. Likely not going to be against the colts though. If he can hold onto the starting job (if he even has it) through the first couple weeks, he has some cupcakes mid season that he can possibly light it up (Dolphins, Bengals, Lions) that would be a solid selling point imo, enough time to get his bearings, then take off against poor teams.

[Cameron Giles]

LOL. The hit rate there is a lot higher than UDFA RB's. That's my point. For every Ekeler and Lindsay, there are a ton of non factors. That list has more than enough hits of quality players who will maintain value, and even some who haven't been a hit yet are still rosterable, due to their NFL capital keeping them on an NFL roster. I'd take a 2nd round pick every time over this guy, like I said. It's playing the odds.

Exactly.

A 2nd round pick this year could've got you:

Michael Pittman
A.J. Dillon
Zach Moss
Bryan Edwards
Antonio Gibson
Tee Higgins
Joe Burrow
Tua

Granted, these careers have yet to be determined, but if you had a James Robinson last year, you are glad you sold for a 2nd.

Not that just that, but it adds to trades for big deals. I can't tell you how many times I've added a 2nd or 3rd to get a big deal across the finish line. Or how many times I've added someone from the waiver wire, traded them for a 2nd, then packaged that player with a 2nd to move up to draft a player who ended up becoming worth a 1st and more.

Sure, these picks aren't always glamorous, but small wins in dynasty do matter. Every UDFA or waiver wire acquisition isn't going to net you a 1st.

I could see if this was a Damien Williams situation, where you have an UDFA in a great offense, where he's already produced, and you have a win now team, but it's extremely unlikely that the starting RB on the Jaguars is going to produce those types of dividends.

[The MAC Machine]

When you look at Cameron Giles llist you also realize you should never pay a 1st for an UDFA that puts up even a 1k yards in a season. How many of those guys were suddenly irrelevant?

I’ll play devils advocate for one point though. I think the nfl has changed and they are looking for value at the rb position and you might see more 1 year UDFAs than in the past. But not enough still to pay a 1st for them.

Also to be fair.....the Jaguars called him during the draft and were considering drafting him in a later round. The point there is that he was draft worthy and to your point maybe they figured that letting him slide would be cheaper and better value for a RB.

[Jigga94]

This feels like the Damien Williams thread last year, but instead of multiple 1sts, it's a 2nd. And instead of FPPT, it's UDFA. And instead of KC, it's JAX

[SteveMaddensShoes]

This is where we disagree..... in another thread we are currently discussing a trade involving Tyler Boyd/Gallup/Justin Jefferson for DJ Moore. Another huge reason people don’t have monster lineups is because people’s evaluation of a player or their opportunity don’t matchup with their actual production. For me I exploit those opportunities in trades consistently year over year to the point where I’ve never actually participated in a rookie draft EVER and have still found ways to build value and maintain success. I’m the guy that’s likely to offer you Dalvin Cook for Kareem Hunt, Juju Smith and MVS or Greg Kittle for Dallas Goedert, Tyler Boyd and James Robinson. If you consistently do that there’s no need to ever use a rookie pick.

Agree trading is a great way to build a team. Trading your draft picks can be a great strategy if people over value the picks. But if that’s the case wouldn’t you want to trade Robinson for a pick someone over valued

I think the tougher the competition you play against the less wins you get trading. You still trade but you don’t win trades off adp discrepancies but rather sharp player evaluation at current adp prices.

But of course, you still win some trades because there are always a few fish in every league. The timing of the trades will be critical of your success of winning trades as well. We all know there are a couple times a year when picks are overvalued and then towards playoffs where they are undervalued. And injuries, etc.

I never meant that drafting a team is the best way to win. But gather assets and then using those assets to grow your team in a multitude of ways.

I just happen to think this is the best time to sell Robinson IF you can get a 2nd because of the unlikelihood of his being able to put up the production necessary to move him into a 1st round value.

I think the chance of multiple good games and holding or rising in value is considerably lower than him putting up a few stinkers, being in a timeshare, getting injured, etc, which would cause his value to fall off the charts.

Think of all Guice went through, injuries, off field, had AP there, etc, and people were still paying a 1st for him occasionally up to the last minute

I’ve said multiple times in this thread that if I was AWARE of the value I could get for a 2nd round pick I’d trade Robinson in a heartbeat. But not because I intrinsically believe the pick is valuable....but because I’ve measured the market and leveraged it to my secure advantage. To me a 2nd round pick on its own two legs is not a secure advantage in a trade.....it could be eventually. But I like to do what I can to strip the game of as much chance as possible.

You are aware that you won’t sell for a 2nd because you don’t view it as enough value but 90% of the people on this forum wouldn’t give you a 2nd because they think he isn’t worth the risk? Doesn’t mean they are right, but it’s definitely worth asking yourself how sure you are that you are right.

If you think someone in your league will buy him for a 1st at some point, that’s your league. But if you were playing against this forum, I’d say there was about a 4% chance(using Cameron Giles list) you could ever get a 1st for him.

[The MAC Machine]

Agree trading is a great way to build a team. Trading your draft picks can be a great strategy if people over value the picks. But if that’s the case wouldn’t you want to trade Robinson for a pick someone over valued

I think the tougher the competition you play against the less wins you get trading. You still trade but you don’t win trades off adp discrepancies but rather sharp player evaluation at current adp prices.

But of course, you still win some trades because there are always a few fish in every league. The timing of the trades will be critical of your success of winning trades as well. We all know there are a couple times a year when picks are overvalued and then towards playoffs where they are undervalued. And injuries, etc.

I never meant that drafting a team is the best way to win. But gather assets and then using those assets to grow your team in a multitude of ways.

I just happen to think this is the best time to sell Robinson IF you can get a 2nd because of the unlikelihood of his being able to put up the production necessary to move him into a 1st round value.

I think the chance of multiple good games and holding or rising in value is considerably lower than him putting up a few stinkers, being in a timeshare, getting injured, etc, which would cause his value to fall off the charts.

Think of all Guice went through, injuries, off field, had AP there, etc, and people were still paying a 1st for him occasionally up to the last minute

I’ve said multiple times in this thread that if I was AWARE of the value I could get for a 2nd round pick I’d trade Robinson in a heartbeat. But not because I intrinsically believe the pick is valuable....but because I’ve measured the market and leveraged it to my secure advantage. To me a 2nd round pick on its own two legs is not a secure advantage in a trade.....it could be eventually. But I like to do what I can to strip the game of as much chance as possible.

You are aware that you won’t sell for a 2nd because you don’t view it as enough value but 90% of the people on this forum wouldn’t give you a 2nd because they think he isn’t worth the risk? Doesn’t mean they are right, but it’s definitely worth asking yourself how sure you are that you are right.

If you think someone in your league will buy him for a 1st at some point, that’s your league. But if you were playing against this forum, I’d say there was about a 4% chance(using Cameron Giles list) you could ever get a 1st for him.

Its not about being right or wrong about the pick. Its about how we evaluate and view picks. Picks are still a chance. And my personal strategy is to seek security. Right now James Robinson is head and shoulders more secure than a 2nd round pick. We know what he is. We only know what a 2nd round pick COULD BE. Therefore, if I could trade that 2nd round pick for a better security then I’d flip that switch on Robinson in a heart beat. The disagreement is on the security of the pick. Marlon Mack is by far more secure than a 2nd round pick. He is average. He will go to another team and be average there too. I value that. I also don’t really watch college football a whole lot so I don’t trust myself with evaluating and maximizing value on rookies. I’d rather know someone is average now than stick my hand in a bucket and hope I find something comparable or better in the future.

[Cameron Giles]

Its not about being right or wrong about the pick. Its about how we evaluate and view picks. Picks are still a chance. And my personal strategy is to seek security. Right now James Robinson is head and shoulders more secure than a 2nd round pick. We know what he is. We only know what a 2nd round pick COULD BE. Therefore, if I could trade that 2nd round pick for a better security then I’d flip that switch on Robinson in a heart beat. The disagreement is on the security of the pick. Marlon Mack is by far more secure than a 2nd round pick. He is average. He will go to another team and be average there too. I value that. I also don’t really watch college football a whole lot so I don’t trust myself with evaluating and maximizing value on rookies. I’d rather know someone is average now than stick my hand in a bucket and hope I find something comparable or better in the future.

You can keep saying this, but it's not backed up by anything. It's simply not true.

Regardless of how weak or strong a draft class is, picks always increase in value throughout the season. A 2nd round pick is guaranteed to be worth more at the end of the season than it is right now.

James Robinson is not guaranteed to increase in value, or sustain value by the end of the season.

So far, nobody in this thread has provided any reason why Robinson's profile is going to put him in the class of UDFA RB anomalies, other than "Well, uh....he's the starter!"

[Bronco Billy]

Here's a few guys I call hits from the mizelle 2nd round list from Mizelle September ADP right before each season started (same time as now):

I didn’t consider that because our league, and I’m guessing a lot if others, don’t draft in September. If owners have a full OTA sessions/preseason/training camp to evaluate before draft of course the hit rate is going to be a lot higher. That’s almost the concept being discussed here - we have additional information on a player that gives owners more concrete concepts of capability vs a future pick that is a complete unknown and having data show that a lot of those future 2nd rounders turn into useless FF players.

[The MAC Machine]

Its not about being right or wrong about the pick. Its about how we evaluate and view picks. Picks are still a chance. And my personal strategy is to seek security. Right now James Robinson is head and shoulders more secure than a 2nd round pick. We know what he is. We only know what a 2nd round pick COULD BE. Therefore, if I could trade that 2nd round pick for a better security then I’d flip that switch on Robinson in a heart beat. The disagreement is on the security of the pick. Marlon Mack is by far more secure than a 2nd round pick. He is average. He will go to another team and be average there too. I value that. I also don’t really watch college football a whole lot so I don’t trust myself with evaluating and maximizing value on rookies. I’d rather know someone is average now than stick my hand in a bucket and hope I find something comparable or better in the future.

You can keep saying this, but it's not backed up by anything. It's simply not true.

Regardless of how weak or strong a draft class is, picks always increase in value throughout the season. A 2nd round pick is guaranteed to be worth more at the end of the season than it is right now.

James Robinson is not guaranteed to increase in value, or sustain value by the end of the season.

So far, nobody in this thread has provided any reason why Robinson's profile is going to put him in the class of UDFA RB anomalies, other than "Well, uh....he's the starter!"

It is true....Robinson is young, healthy, and has an opportunity to start at RB for a pro football team in game 1. You can’t say that about ANY 2nd round pick next year at this moment. He is secure not in production or value, but situation and potential to contribute. Something you can’t say at all about a 2nd round rookie pick next year.