Jacksonville backfield, who is the guy?

[The MAC Machine]

I think this will give us all something to laugh about if Robinson is benched in week 4 or 5. I can take my shots if I’m wrong. I’m just not sure if anybody else here could... that’s what bothers me. People who live in the absolutes. If Robinson does do well this year, I imagine many of you will have excuses - I can already see it. I’m ready to be wrong...I just don’t think any of the doubters are ready to be wrong about the benefits of working the waiver wire in dynasty.

It's the opposite, man. I live in the world of odds and I'm okay if he goes off because I will be correct more often than not if I could sell for a 2nd. I literally won't make an excuse other than to say he is in the 4% of guys who go on to greatness. It's not an excuse that he beat the odds. It will just be part of the percentages.

But totally agree you can take your shots. Nothing unethical, immoral, evil or what not about it. It's just fun and if you enjoy taking your shots I'd say go for it. I just don't think you can convince me it's the best strategical decision.

Not trying to convince anybody lol. I never said your strategy was odd, wrong, or weird. The thing about odds is that they change....and those numbers actually don’t tell us anything about the stories that led individuals to land in that 4%. So while you are busy seeking refuge in comparing and weighing odds (which is fine), I’m focusing on the current sequence of events on how they unfold. The odds don’t tell us everything about an actual situation. So while I can acknowledge the odds, I don’t allow those odds to dictate how I observe a situation. They may sway how I feel about it. But that’s about as far as odds go. And I’m a math guy. I didn’t use calculators growing up So while I appreciate the love for numbers I also know they don’t tell me everything I need to know.

[murphysxm]

I think this will give us all something to laugh about if Robinson is benched in week 4 or 5. I can take my shots if I’m wrong. I’m just not sure if anybody else here could... that’s what bothers me. People who live in the absolutes. If Robinson does do well this year, I imagine many of you will have excuses - I can already see it. I’m ready to be wrong...I just don’t think any of the doubters are ready to be wrong about the benefits of working the waiver wire in dynasty.

It's the opposite, man. I live in the world of odds and I'm okay if he goes off because I will be correct more often than not if I could sell for a 2nd. I literally won't make an excuse other than to say he is in the 4% of guys who go on to greatness. It's not an excuse that he beat the odds. It will just be part of the percentages.

But totally agree you can take your shots. Nothing unethical, immoral, evil or what not about it. It's just fun and if you enjoy taking your shots I'd say go for it. I just don't think you can convince me it's the best strategical decision.

Not trying to convince anybody lol. I never said your strategy was odd, wrong, or weird. The thing about odds is that they change....and those numbers actually don’t tell us anything about the stories that led individuals to land in that 4%. So while you are busy seeking refuge in comparing and weighing odds (which is fine), I’m focusing on the current sequence of events on how they unfold. The odds don’t tell us everything about an actual situation. So while I can acknowledge the odds, I don’t allow those odds to dictate how I observe a situation. They may sway how I feel about it. But that’s about as far as odds go. And I’m a math guy. I didn’t use calculators growing up So while I appreciate the love for numbers I also know they don’t tell me everything I need to know.

If you are a math guy, why are you taking the side that has less than a 10% probality of being correct? You do you and manage your team how you want. I think the point most of us are making is when I see a player with little or no draft capital, who played against very weak competition in college, earn some trade value, I jump on that opportunity. He may hit and I may be wromg, good on him, but it is very unlikely. He is the definition of sell high right now.

[The MAC Machine]

It's the opposite, man. I live in the world of odds and I'm okay if he goes off because I will be correct more often than not if I could sell for a 2nd. I literally won't make an excuse other than to say he is in the 4% of guys who go on to greatness. It's not an excuse that he beat the odds. It will just be part of the percentages.

But totally agree you can take your shots. Nothing unethical, immoral, evil or what not about it. It's just fun and if you enjoy taking your shots I'd say go for it. I just don't think you can convince me it's the best strategical decision.

Not trying to convince anybody lol. I never said your strategy was odd, wrong, or weird. The thing about odds is that they change....and those numbers actually don’t tell us anything about the stories that led individuals to land in that 4%. So while you are busy seeking refuge in comparing and weighing odds (which is fine), I’m focusing on the current sequence of events on how they unfold. The odds don’t tell us everything about an actual situation. So while I can acknowledge the odds, I don’t allow those odds to dictate how I observe a situation. They may sway how I feel about it. But that’s about as far as odds go. And I’m a math guy. I didn’t use calculators growing up So while I appreciate the love for numbers I also know they don’t tell me everything I need to know.

If you are a math guy, why are you taking the side that has less than a 10% probality of being correct? You do you and manage your team how you want. I think the point most of us are making is when I see a player with little or no draft capital, who played against very weak competition in college, earn some trade value, I jump on that opportunity. He may hit and I may be wromg, good on him, but it is very unlikely. He is the definition of sell high right now.

To answer your question...because that “less than 10%” isn’t a hard number. It’s ever changing. You believe it’s a hard number because it’s much safer and simpler to believe than to actually dig into the details of how anomalies came into that “10%“. The truth is, we have no idea who this gentlemen is - his work ethic, his ability to learn and improve, etc...You never know what heights he can rise too. I am probably much closer to what you believe in terms of what may realistically happen. The difference is I’m holding him because I believe I can be wrong. You are selling him because you think you are right. Either way is OK. But I’d rather be disappointed for cheap. Losing an opportunity at a 2nd rounder to me is cheap.

[CGW]

Not trying to convince anybody lol. I never said your strategy was odd, wrong, or weird. The thing about odds is that they change....and those numbers actually don’t tell us anything about the stories that led individuals to land in that 4%. So while you are busy seeking refuge in comparing and weighing odds (which is fine), I’m focusing on the current sequence of events on how they unfold. The odds don’t tell us everything about an actual situation. So while I can acknowledge the odds, I don’t allow those odds to dictate how I observe a situation. They may sway how I feel about it. But that’s about as far as odds go. And I’m a math guy. I didn’t use calculators growing up So while I appreciate the love for numbers I also know they don’t tell me everything I need to know.

If you are a math guy, why are you taking the side that has less than a 10% probality of being correct? You do you and manage your team how you want. I think the point most of us are making is when I see a player with little or no draft capital, who played against very weak competition in college, earn some trade value, I jump on that opportunity. He may hit and I may be wromg, good on him, but it is very unlikely. He is the definition of sell high right now.

To answer your question...because that “less than 10%” isn’t a hard number. It’s ever changing. You believe it’s a hard number because it’s much safer and simpler to believe than to actually dig into the details of how anomalies came into that “10%“. The truth is, we have no idea who this gentlemen is - his work ethic, his ability to learn and improve, etc...You never know what heights he can rise too. I am probably much closer to what you believe in terms of what may realistically happen. The difference is I’m holding him because I believe I can be wrong. You are selling him because you think you are right. Either way is OK. But I’d rather be disappointed for cheap. Losing an opportunity at a 2nd rounder to me is cheap.

So you are good enough talent evaluator to separate the cream of the crop for 10% hit rates, but not for a 2nd round rookie who has a 20-30% hit rate. This makes little sense to me.

[murphysxm]

Not trying to convince anybody lol. I never said your strategy was odd, wrong, or weird. The thing about odds is that they change....and those numbers actually don’t tell us anything about the stories that led individuals to land in that 4%. So while you are busy seeking refuge in comparing and weighing odds (which is fine), I’m focusing on the current sequence of events on how they unfold. The odds don’t tell us everything about an actual situation. So while I can acknowledge the odds, I don’t allow those odds to dictate how I observe a situation. They may sway how I feel about it. But that’s about as far as odds go. And I’m a math guy. I didn’t use calculators growing up So while I appreciate the love for numbers I also know they don’t tell me everything I need to know.

If you are a math guy, why are you taking the side that has less than a 10% probality of being correct? You do you and manage your team how you want. I think the point most of us are making is when I see a player with little or no draft capital, who played against very weak competition in college, earn some trade value, I jump on that opportunity. He may hit and I may be wromg, good on him, but it is very unlikely. He is the definition of sell high right now.

To answer your question...because that “less than 10%” isn’t a hard number. It’s ever changing. You believe it’s a hard number because it’s much safer and simpler to believe than to actually dig into the details of how anomalies came into that “10%“. The truth is, we have no idea who this gentlemen is - his work ethic, his ability to learn and improve, etc...You never know what heights he can rise too. I am probably much closer to what you believe in terms of what may realistically happen. The difference is I’m holding him because I believe I can be wrong. You are selling him because you think you are right. Either way is OK. But I’d rather be disappointed for cheap. Losing an opportunity at a 2nd rounder to me is cheap.

Let me put this in non football terms. You found a lottery ticket on the ground. I offered you $2 for that ticket and you said no because it could be a winner. You scratch it off and realize you are $2 poorer for not selling it.

[CGW]

It would be more like finding a lottery ticket on the ground and offering him 1,000 (much closer to the ceiling of possible outcomes).

[Cameron Giles]

I just wanted to acknowledge you saying they didn’t prioritize Robinson at all because that’s Clearly that’s not true.

How did they prioritize him? By giving him a roster spot? Then sure, they prioritized him. They prioritized Chris Thompson too. Great.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I get whatbyoubare saying about ever changing odds. I just think they apply more to, say a 2nd round draft pick. Say you get a guy 2.06 and he is flashing and looking legit, he has decent nfl capital, im definitely on your side in that his odds of hitting are higher than average for a 2nd round pick at this point(they arent exactly higher per se, he just happens to be he one ofthe guys that will fall in the 30% hit range) . Or if nothing else his value has increased if you want to sell him. There is that changing fluidity you are talking about. His chances of succeeding are definitely higher now and i wouldnt trade him for another 2nd round pick.

Im guessing you are saying the same thing about Robinson. His odds you feel are different than all the other udfas because of the new information we have. I agree to a degree. Its just that historically, irregardless of the sitaution, there have been almost no udfas to succeed longterm(especially in his horrendous situation). Whereas many, many fantasy 2nd rounders that have gained value keep it and continue to grow in their value.

I see your point in that he doesn't fall into the pool of every udfa ever, its just that even after you sort out guys with opportunities, they dont hold long term value. And his situation seems so bad that i dont see how he could establish himself as one of the true, extreme outliers.

If he was backup to say, Dalvin Cook, ans Cook tore his acl, I would be more willing to hold. Minnesota would be wanting to contend, will be in position to score much more often than Jax, and Roibinson would have an opportunity to supplant Cook in a contract year.

This is speculative, but to me this just feels more like jax is saying, lets make sure we dont win, clear the roster of talent, throw some scrubs out there, maybe if robinson is flashes we get a backup on a cheap contract, wont have to spend any capital on late round rbs, and use him in the future as the backup to Etienne.

[Cameron Giles]

To answer your question...because that “less than 10%” isn’t a hard number. It’s ever changing. You believe it’s a hard number because it’s much safer and simpler to believe than to actually dig into the details of how anomalies came into that “10%“. The truth is, we have no idea who this gentlemen is - his work ethic, his ability to learn and improve, etc...You never know what heights he can rise too. I am probably much closer to what you believe in terms of what may realistically happen. The difference is I’m holding him because I believe I can be wrong. You are selling him because you think you are right. Either way is OK. But I’d rather be disappointed for cheap. Losing an opportunity at a 2nd rounder to me is cheap.

That makes no sense though. Anomalies are anomalies for a reason: There is no logic in their result. If there was, then they woudn't be anomalies. It's luck, and unfortunately there is no formula for luck.

As a result, we play the odds. And the odds say that of the 300 undrafted RBs who've played at least two seasons in the NFL in the last 30 years, only 12 of them (4%) have rushed for 1000 yards in a season. If James Robinson bucks that 96%, then more power to you. Hey, sometimes our gut instinct is correct, but there's no process involved in that.

So if you tell someone that they can play the more favorable odds and get an asset in return, most people are going to take that.

As someone said, if you found a lottery ticket on the ground, and someone came up to you and offered $20 for it, would you tell them no, because you could become a billionaire, or would you take the $20? Sure, $20 isn't a whole lot of money for anyone with a full-time job, but it's still the smart decision to take the money.

[The MAC Machine]

And this is where we differ

1) There’s no agreement on what the value of a 2nd round pick is. It’s subjective based on our own value systems and personal strategy. All many of you are saying is that a 2nd rounder is “better” - without actually knowing and naming what “better” measurably is. There are moving variables on both sides of the equation. I’m not saying you can’t possibly be right about where things land. But knowing and believing are different. Knowing is rooted in knowledge, believing is rooted in faith. I don’t play fantasy sports with faith. If I’m taking a risk I want to know as much as I can about it - and I know very little right now, while many of you claim to know a lot.

2) The belief surrounding loss is also subjective based on how you choose to look at it. I pick up James Robinson and drop a player. The only thing I’ve objectively lost is the player dropped. A 2nd round pick sounds safe if that’s what you value, especially if you think the bell curve is small. I’m just simply saying I don’t know how big this bell curve is...and I don’t think you do either. We are both guessing, based on preferences and experiences. But I’d rather see it through for the price of the player I dropped. If I die on this mole hill it’s not going to destroy my season, or my dynasty outlook. But if I trade him I risk dying at the foot of a larger mole hill, if not a mountain. I’d be more upset with that than if I decided to drop him. It’s simple. It’s all subjective and preference. I made my move and I’m going to see it through. Period.




Guys, Michael Jordan was CUT from his basketball team in high school. LeBron was being recruited to the NBA in high school. All I’m saying is we don’t always take into consideration that a players work ethic, character and ability to improve can change things. One thing all anomalies have in common is that they were hard workers. Hard work can make up for lazy talent and we just don’t know where Robinson falls on that scale yet. I’m not saying I know the guy. But I’m willing to hold and see if he works hard enough to be worth it. Bottom line.

[M-Dub]

I think this will give us all something to laugh about if Robinson is benched in week 4 or 5. I can take my shots if I’m wrong. I’m just not sure if anybody else here could... that’s what bothers me. People who live in the absolutes. If Robinson does do well this year, I imagine many of you will have excuses - I can already see it. I’m ready to be wrong...I just don’t think any of the doubters are ready to be wrong about the benefits of working the waiver wire in dynasty.

Absolutes like your stated position on draft picks?

Look, I’m rooting for Robinson to succeed because it’d be a cool story. Phillip Lindsay is literally my favorite player in the league right now. But the reason it’d be such a cool story is because the odds of him succeeding are so incredibly low. I can understand wanting to be a small part of that story by eschewing a 2nd round pick and riding it out, but it’s your refusal to acknowledge those long odds and your dismissal of draft picks that really surprises me.

Draft picks are the most versatile assets in dynasty. They don’t take up a roster spot. Their value is stable. And most importantly, they have broad appeal to pretty much any and every dynasty owner (besides you, apparently). Let’s just say that Robinson is worth exactly the same as a random 2021 2nd. The 2nd is still going to be a more versatile trade piece for the reasons I listed above. If you’re trying to use Robinson as a trade piece to upgrade at a position, you’re limited to teams who have a need for RB depth and are willing to cut another player in order to roster Robinson. A 2nd, on the other hand, doesn’t force them to cut anyone and isn’t already assigned a specific position. It can be used to select a QB, WR, RB or TE, or it can be used as a piece in another trade down the road.

I’m not even really arguing with your James Robinson enthusiasm. I just think you’re not giving future draft picks nearly enough credit.

[millworkguy]

"As a result, we play the odds. And the odds say that of the 300 undrafted RBs who've played at least two seasons in the NFL in the last 30 years, only 12 of them (4%) have rushed for 1000 yards in a season. If James Robinson bucks that 96%, then more power to you. Hey, sometimes our gut instinct is correct, but there's no process involved in that."

Is that the measure of success? I drafted james in 5 of 9 dynasty leagues in the 7th or 8th round (idp) 4th round (off only) because I didn't trust the backs in front of him.

And while 14 backs made it to 1000 yards rushing last season, and only 30 had more then 150 attempts. Only 9 backs did it in 17 and 18. Over the 3 seasons , 24 different backs had a 1000 yards season.

Of those 300 undrafted backs over the last 30 years who played 2 seasons, how many have played more then 30 games? As 334 players have rushing stats of at least 1 yard last season, Only 4% of players with rushing stats hit 1000 yards last season.

[The MAC Machine]

I think this will give us all something to laugh about if Robinson is benched in week 4 or 5. I can take my shots if I’m wrong. I’m just not sure if anybody else here could... that’s what bothers me. People who live in the absolutes. If Robinson does do well this year, I imagine many of you will have excuses - I can already see it. I’m ready to be wrong...I just don’t think any of the doubters are ready to be wrong about the benefits of working the waiver wire in dynasty.

Absolutes like your stated position on draft picks?

Look, I’m rooting for Robinson to succeed because it’d be a cool story. Phillip Lindsay is literally my favorite player in the league right now. But the reason it’d be such a cool story is because the odds of him succeeding are so incredibly low. I can understand wanting to be a small part of that story by eschewing a 2nd round pick and riding it out, but it’s your refusal to acknowledge those long odds and your dismissal of draft picks that really surprises me.

Draft picks are the most versatile assets in dynasty. They don’t take up a roster spot. Their value is stable. And most importantly, they have broad appeal to pretty much any and every dynasty owner (besides you, apparently). Let’s just say that Robinson is worth exactly the same as a random 2021 2nd. The 2nd is still going to be a more versatile trade piece for the reasons I listed above. If you’re trying to use Robinson as a trade piece to upgrade at a position, you’re limited to teams who have a need for RB depth and are willing to cut another player in order to roster Robinson. A 2nd, on the other hand, doesn’t force them to cut anyone and isn’t already assigned a specific position. It can be used to select a QB, WR, RB or TE, or it can be used as a piece in another trade down the road.

I’m not even really arguing with your James Robinson enthusiasm. I just think you’re not giving future draft picks nearly enough credit.

It’s not that I’m refusing to acknowledge the long term odds. I understand them (better after this conversation, admittedly). But those long term odds just aren’t important to me because I’m always in win now mode. There’s a difference between not acknowledging something and valuing it differently. I get that you can’t wrap your brain around a perspective being different in the same way you probably can’t understand Mandarin or Lebanese. That doesn’t mean other languages are the right way to speak, or that you are lesser for not speaking them. We just have different languages, backgrounds and views - and that’s OK. I have a very nuanced win now approach that I employ in dynasty and that has served me well.

[remedy29]

Is it possible that James Robinson went undrafted due to a very late nighttime run during the NFL combine, which he didn't get a chance to make up for during a Pro Day (which many previous college players have benefited from)?

Because everything else you read about this guy says he is an NFL RB.

[Cameron Giles]

"As a result, we play the odds. And the odds say that of the 300 undrafted RBs who've played at least two seasons in the NFL in the last 30 years, only 12 of them (4%) have rushed for 1000 yards in a season. If James Robinson bucks that 96%, then more power to you. Hey, sometimes our gut instinct is correct, but there's no process involved in that."

Is that the measure of success? I drafted james in 5 of 9 dynasty leagues in the 7th or 8th round (idp) 4th round (off only) because I didn't trust the backs in front of him.

And while 14 backs made it to 1000 yards rushing last season, and only 30 had more then 150 attempts. Only 9 backs did it in 17 and 18. Over the 3 seasons , 24 different backs had a 1000 yards season.

Of those 300 undrafted backs over the last 30 years who played 2 seasons, how many have played more then 30 games? As 334 players have rushing stats of at least 1 yard last season, Only 4% of players with rushing stats hit 1000 yards last season.

How else would you measure success? Maybe I could do a 1000 total yards, but that's not going to change the reality.

You're answering your own question. The majority of UDFA RBs do not have a long shelf life in the NFL, because they simply aren't good enough to stick at an expendable position. So of course they didn't play a lot of games.

I'm not sure what point you're making by bringing up the amount of players who've had 1000+ yard seasons in a given season. I'm comparing UDFAs to UDFAs. We can compare RB hit rates by draft pedigree.

So from 1990-2020, RBs with a 1000+ yard season by round:

1st Round Picks: 54 out of 83 (65%)
2nd Round Picks: 30 out of 89 (33%)
3rd Round Picks: 17 out of 97 (18%)
4th Round Picks: 12 out of 123 (9%)
5th Round Picks: 7 out of 92 (7%)
6th Round Picks: 6 out of 119 (5%)
7th Round Picks: 5 out of 127 (3%)
UDFAs (who played at least 1 season in the NFL): 12 out of 496 (2%)

No shocker, but the hit rate drops signifiantly by round. Once you pick up an RB outside of the Top 3 rounds, you're playing against pretty steep odds. Basically, when it comes to RBs, you typically get what you draft...or don't draft.

Like I said, if you feel comfortable betting against overwhelming odds and shunning an asset, then more power to you. Would I have missed out on Arian Foster and Phil Lindsay? Oh, absolutely. But I would've been right a lot more than I was wrong.