Jacksonville backfield, who is the guy?

[honcho55]

Didn’t read much of the thread til here, but my take is: easily Thompson this year, and not grilled about anyone long term. I guess Robinson is the guy you had stashed or just snapped up that has a value bump and a shot at some value, but I don’t love it. I’d take offers for sure.

I’m mildly happy with Thompson as an RB6 or so in a couple leagues

[The GM]

Also, I’m a chess player so I tend to also weigh consequences and play the opposition instead of head on.

What an odd flex.

[M-Dub]

Damn, this thread blew up in a hurry. Haha. It’s been an entertaining read, though, so props to everyone involved. Here’s my 2¢...

I don’t own any shares of Robinson. If anything, I’m the polar opposite of a Robinson owner; I’m the guy who picked up Ozigbo in all three of my dynasty leagues. Haha. Derp.

Right now, I wouldn’t even sell Ozigbo for a random 3rd, so I see no reason to sell Robinson for that, unless you’re so deep that he’s a cutdown candidate or something. If I was in a rookie draft tomorrow, I would not expect Robinson to make it past the 3.12, and this is a really deep class, so why sell him for a 3rd a year out in an uncertain class? I’d almost certainly sell either one of them for a 2nd, though. That’s just based on my specific situations, though, along with my personal estimation of the odds that one of them becomes productive enough to either net a 1st and/or crack my starting lineup on a regular basis.

For context, I play in relatively shallow leagues. All are 1QB with eight total starters. Rosters sizes are 17 active + 4 taxi, 18 + 4 and a flat 20 with no taxi. When you can only carry 20-22 players, 3rd round picks are somewhat devalued.

I’m mainly surprised that we’re 10 pages deep and nobody’s brought up the most obvious comparison. Phillip Lindsay was a UDFA rookie RB who won the starting job in camp and was named the week 1 starter. His career to this point probably represents the realistic best case scenario for Robinson. If you sold Lindsay for a 3rd before his rookie year, you almost certainly lost that deal. If you sold him for a 2nd (and seriously, has anyone even SEEN Robinson go for a 2nd anywhere?), how would you feel? If you held him, how would you feel? He’s posted a high-end and low-end RB2 season. He’s probably started for you a few times, but were they the RIGHT times? Even after back-to-back 1k-yard seasons, the Broncos brought in MGIII and Lindsay is still only worth a 2nd at best. At his peak value, around the 2018 trade deadline, you probably could’ve gotten a mid 1st for him. Even if James Robinson follows a similar career trajectory, will you have the discipline and foresight (and requisite RB depth) to trade him at his peak value?

The reason this is such a lively debate is because there’s really no “right” answer. The best case scenario for James Robinson is Phillip Lindsay. The best case scenario for a future 2nd that you traded Lindsay for two years ago is Deebo Samuel, Noah Fant, Devin Singletary or Kyler Murray. The worst case scenario for Robinson is complete irrelevance after a week or two. Then again, you could’ve spent that 2nd you traded Lindsay for on Hakeem Butler, Riley Ridley, Kelvin Harmon or Justice Hill.

Long story short, Robinson and a random future 2nd are both assets with a similarly wide range of outcomes, and which one you prefer probably has more to do with your specific team situation than any hard-and-fast rule. I can very easily envision two different scenarios where I’d prefer one to the other.

[FantasyFreak]

I’m mainly surprised that we’re 10 pages deep and nobody’s brought up the most obvious comparison. Phillip Lindsay was a UDFA rookie RB who won the starting job in camp and was named the week 1 starter.

Long story short, Robinson and a random future 2nd are both assets with a similarly wide range of outcomes, and which one you prefer probably has more to do with your specific team situation than any hard-and-fast rule. I can very easily envision two different scenarios where I’d prefer one to the other.

Except Robinson "won the job" partly due to COVID, and lack of talent around him. Lindsay beat out a 3rd round pick, not really all that comparable IMO. A random future 2nd has a better range of outcomes on average, and it's not really close. The draft capital and talent of player will be that of a 2nd or 3rd round NFL player. If you were take the 2nd ten times, and keep Robinson ten times. The players you would end up with would be better with the pick would be better far more often than not. If you hit on Robinson, that's fantastic, but it's not playing the odds, vs a 2nd round rookie pick. It's betting against them on a "hunch", so to speak.

[Factory of Sadness]

It's been an interesting thread. The only thought I'd like to chip in with is about value in dynasty leagues. Slow accumulation is a nice theory, but hinges on the idea that you can gradually improve your team in a vacuum until the point at which it is good enough to win. I'm not sure how useful this is really. The other 11 or so teams in your league will rise and fall wildly. Your own team will have years of bounty in which your starters stay healthy and things work out great for your fringe players and years of ill fortune. Add to this the fact that in a decent league the teams truly competing that year will shed long-term assets to get over the line and dynasty leagues are volatile things. In my experience, both of my own teams and looking at those I compete against, it's not very often that slow and steady wins the race.

I think you have to hit on some decent swings to win each year. So I prize the possibility of a big swing in my favour if Robinson pops enough to earn me lots of points or to be flipped for a guy I love. That will improve me more than my low draft slot might be expected to if my team is strong and will add to my bounce from high picks if my team is weak. Working the wire well or making decent deals can usually accrue a couple of 3rds worth of value easily enough so I'm pretty sanguine about losing a 3rd if he flops. Whereas if he has just a couple of splashy games I can win big on him.

Some of our attitudes are grounded in our natures or our experiences beyond dynasty. I'm sure that's true for most of us on this issue. My own initial inclination in dynasty was to grind and keep accumulating small wins. Experience suggests to me that to win, you have to swing harder than that.

[FantasyFreak]

It's been an interesting thread. The only thought I'd like to chip in with is about value in dynasty leagues. Slow accumulation is a nice theory, but hinges on the idea that you can gradually improve your team in a vacuum until the point at which it is good enough to win. I'm not sure how useful this is really.

My own initial inclination in dynasty was to grind and keep accumulating small wins. Experience suggests to me that to win, you have to swing harder than that.

I have the opposite experience. For instance, Jakobi Meyers got traded for a 2nd at this point last year in a league. That guy then used that 2nd and another marginal player for a very noticeable upgrade. You can still swing hard, and be swinging in control, not swinging wildly, with your eyes closed. In my experience, trading a guy with Robinson's profile, and situation, with this Jags team, for a 2nd will make you better off far more often than it will help you to keep him. That's a 2nd we're talking about, though. I understand a 3rd or 4th is different, but getting out for a 2nd round rookie pick on this particular player, I'd do in every league, if I had him in fifteen leagues.

[Bronco Billy]

A random future 2nd has a better range of outcomes on average, and it's not really close.

Players available in picks 2.03-2.12 by ADP rookie drafts from years 2014-2018:


Ajayi, Jay MIA RB
Allen, Josh BUF QB
Ballage, Kalen MIA RB
Beckham, Odell NYG WR
Booker, Devontae DEN RB
Boyd, Tyler CIN WR
Callaway, Antonio CLE WR
Coates, Sammie PIT WR
Cobb, David TEN RB
Collins, Alex SEA RB
Conley, Chris KCC WR
Cooper, Pharoh RAM WR
Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB
Darnold, Sam NYJ QB
Davis, Mike SFO RB
Engram, Evan NYG TE
Everett, Gerald LAR TE
Fuller, Will HOU WR
Gallup, Michael DAL WR
Gesicki, Mike MIA TE
Goedert, Dallas PHI TE
Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR
Hill, Jeremy CIN RB
Hines, Nyheim IND RB
Hooper, Austin ATL TE
Huff, Josh PHI WR
Hurst, Hayden BAL TE
Johnson, David ARI RB
Johnson, Storm JAC RB
Jones, Zay BUF WR
Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR
Lyerla, Colt FA TE
Lynch, Paxton DEN QB
Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
Mariota, Marcus TEN QB
Mason, Tre STL RB
Miller, Anthony CHI WR
Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR
Moore, J'Mon GBP WR
Niklas, Troy ARI TE
Njoku, David CLE TE
Perine, Samaje WAS RB
Perkins, Paul NYG RB
Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
Richardson, Paul SEA WR
Ross, John CIN WR
Samuel, Curtis CAR WR
Seastrunk, Lache TEN RB
Shaheen, Adam CHI TE
Sims, Charles TBB RB
Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR
Smith, Devin NYJ WR
Smith, Tre'Quan NOS WR
St. Brown, Equanimeous GBP WR
Wentz, Carson PHI QB
West, Terrance CLE RB
Williams, Joe SFO RB
Williams, Jonathan BUF RB
Williams, Maxx BAL T

[FantasyFreak]

Right, so that proves my point, thanks. The odds are better than a UDFA on a dumpster fire offense, who didn't beat out anybody significant. There are enough hits in there that it's really not close.

[Bronco Billy]

Right, so that proves my point. The odds are better than a UDFA on a dumpster fire offense, who didn't beat out anybody significant. There are enough hits in there that it's really not close.

Because you already know the outcome of Robinson’s career? Please share those numbers with us. That list didn’t prove anything other than there are a lot more complete busts on it than there are studs.

[FantasyFreak]

Right, so that proves my point. The odds are better than a UDFA on a dumpster fire offense, who didn't beat out anybody significant. There are enough hits in there that it's really not close.

Because you already know the outcome of Robinson’s career? Please share those numbers with us. That list didn’t prove anything other than there are a lot more complete busts on it than there are studs.

LOL. The hit rate there is a lot higher than UDFA RB's. That's my point. For every Ekeler and Lindsay, there are a ton of non factors. That list has more than enough hits of quality players who will maintain value, and even some who haven't been a hit yet are still rosterable, due to their NFL capital keeping them on an NFL roster. I'd take a 2nd round pick every time over this guy, like I said. It's playing the odds.

[Bronco Billy]

Right, so that proves my point. The odds are better than a UDFA on a dumpster fire offense, who didn't beat out anybody significant. There are enough hits in there that it's really not close.

Because you already know the outcome of Robinson’s career? Please share those numbers with us. That list didn’t prove anything other than there are a lot more complete busts on it than there are studs.

LOL. The hit rate there is a lot higher than UDFA RB's.

We aren’t talking about all UDFA RBs. We’re talking about one who has earned the start in week 1 in his rookie year. We already have that information, which trims the field substantially. Completely different discussions that I’d hope you’d be willing to recognize. And I’ll freely concede that Robinson could completely wash out starting this weekend and moving forward. But he’s in a position to outperform a lot of the names on that list.

[FantasyFreak]

Because you already know the outcome of Robinson’s career? Please share those numbers with us. That list didn’t prove anything other than there are a lot more complete busts on it than there are studs.

LOL. The hit rate there is a lot higher than UDFA RB's.

We aren’t talking about all UDFA RBs. We’re talking about one who has earned the start in week 1 in his rookie year. We already have that information, which trims the field substantially. Completely different discussions that I’d hope you’d be willing to recognize. And I’ll freely concede that Robinson could completely wash out starting this weekend and moving forward. But he’s in a position to outperform a lot of the names on that list.

Sure, I understand the but the 2nd will maintain value for a full year, as a pick. As you say, he could wash out week 1, and without any decent production, will most likely lose almost all value and appeal. I would still value a 2nd over a player of his profile, especially when factoring in the Jags situation. I don't think any of these RB's are long term solutions on that team, much like the Dolphins RB's last year. Some guys on that list, like Ajayi, had value at one point that was more than the 2nd rounder, too, and produced for some degree of time. I'd prefer a 2nd. All good.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Because you already know the outcome of Robinson’s career? Please share those numbers with us. That list didn’t prove anything other than there are a lot more complete busts on it than there are studs.

LOL. The hit rate there is a lot higher than UDFA RB's.

We aren’t talking about all UDFA RBs. We’re talking about one who has earned the start in week 1 in his rookie year. We already have that information, which trims the field substantially. Completely different discussions that I’d hope you’d be willing to recognize. And I’ll freely concede that Robinson could completely wash out starting this weekend and moving forward. But he’s in a position to outperform a lot of the names on that list.

Like I mentioned earlier, or in the other thread, allot of names on that list either rose in hype and you could have gotten more than a 2nd, or if they fell you sold and could have recouped some of the value. UDFA rbs tend to disappear overnight, even with good production. I’m not giving a 1st for Robinson until he has at least half a season of at least rb2 production and I’m a contender and I’m short on rbs. If I’m middling or rebuilding I’ll probably never give you a 1st for him. Do you see how hard it is to get more than a 2nd for him? At least from me anyway

Again, if you are a contender and you NEED him badly, he might be worth closer to a 1st. But I still think this is why so many teams don’t have monster lineups because they won’t make these trades to accumulate assets.

When I said it’s a long haul, it doesn’t always take a decade of seconds here and there. It’s picking up 3 guys and flipping them off waivers and then making a trade that is even but getting a pick thrown in and on and on. It’s not just drafting guys in the 2nd and watching them win championships. It’s taking those 2nds and 3rds that have an assigned value and using their pivot points and opportunities to trade them and get better and move to more valuable players. It’s a movement toward real quality and not hype. It can happen relatively quickly. I’ve seen plenty of teams do it.

[akpipeline23]

I have a random question - do we actually know that he is the starter for Week 1? I've seen people say that it's not the coach who puts that depth chart together, but some other random person in the organization. Also, I saw Evan Silva tweet that he's learned to assign no value to these depth charts. Is there other evidence that he is actually the starter? How much confidence do you have that he's actually going to see a plurality of the snaps Week 1?

[The MAC Machine]

LOL. The hit rate there is a lot higher than UDFA RB's.

We aren’t talking about all UDFA RBs. We’re talking about one who has earned the start in week 1 in his rookie year. We already have that information, which trims the field substantially. Completely different discussions that I’d hope you’d be willing to recognize. And I’ll freely concede that Robinson could completely wash out starting this weekend and moving forward. But he’s in a position to outperform a lot of the names on that list.

. But I still think this is why so many teams don’t have monster lineups because they won’t make these trades to accumulate assets.

This is where we disagree..... in another thread we are currently discussing a trade involving Tyler Boyd/Gallup/Justin Jefferson for DJ Moore. Another huge reason people don’t have monster lineups is because people’s evaluation of a player or their opportunity don’t matchup with their actual production. For me I exploit those opportunities in trades consistently year over year to the point where I’ve never actually participated in a rookie draft EVER and have still found ways to build value and maintain success. I’m the guy that’s likely to offer you Dalvin Cook for Kareem Hunt, Juju Smith and MVS or Greg Kittle for Dallas Goedert, Tyler Boyd and James Robinson. If you consistently do that there’s no need to ever use a rookie pick. I rely completely on my teams value, my judgment, and FA to generate value and also maximize my teams production year over year.