Kelley/McFarland overvalued?

[jjleurquin]

I keep seeing people talk about these 2 like they are the backups. Nothing that we've heard or seen really suggests that to be the case.

LA has Jackson as the RB2, and though I do think Kelley could be good given opportunity he's a ways from that opportunity at this point as he's playing behind 2 talented backs.

I have an even bigger problem with McFarland though. Early in the offseason he was being drafted in front of guys like Dillon and Moss and while his hype has died down a bit I still think his price is way higher than it should be. Conner and Snell are solidified in front of him. Amzaing blocking and a good system made him look better in college than he actually is, and he still wasn't even the best RB on his team in college so unless you think Javon Leake is just massively undervalued and a stud as well then you probably shouldn't like mcfarland.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I have one copy of each. The McFarland hype is easier to understand- he’s the only RB in Pittsburgh with any real long speed. I agree, he’s clearly far down the pecking order, but I think the idea is that he has a talent that the other RBs lack, so if/when he gets a shot, he could run away with the job. He fell to me at 3.06 in the league where I have Conner, but this was earlier in the season when the hype hadn’t really hit.

As for Kelley, his hype did seem to predicated on a role that he just doesn’t have right now, and might not be that valuable anyway.

Agree that taking either of these guys over Dillon is a low probability move.

[Jigga94]

It happens with most rookie RB. RB are worth a lot in most leagues. People get desperate for any RB with a shot and it pushes them all up the board. I mean CEH is practically a top 5 startup pick already. I agree that neither of these guys will probably amount to much and I like the prospects of Dillon more than any RB not named CEH, JT, JK, Swift or Akers. Those 6 are honestly the only ones worth drafting for me at their ADPs and I still think Akers is probably going too high.

[straightcashhomie831]

I think so..i faded both guys. Kelly went 2.09 in my league and Mcfarland went 3.07. I think everyone scrambled to pick a rb after all the top rbs were gone. I'd rather have Deejay Dallas or even Eno.

[Jigga94]

I think so..i faded both guys. Kelly went 2.09 in my league and Mcfarland went 3.07. I think everyone scrambled to pick a rb after all the top rbs were gone. I'd rather have Deejay Dallas or even Eno.

Actually McFarland mid 3rd doesn't seem too bad, figured he was going mid or late 2nd. He went 2.04 in a draft of mine. Kelley went 3.10 which seemed about right

[sugbear65]

I was going to say I think these guys are 3rd or 4th round prospects, though I haven’t looked at any of the ADP. I do know in my drafts, back in May, these guys were still going behind the likes of Dillon and Moss. Maybe that’s just localized to my leagues. But I don’t feel like these guys are overhyped really.

[jenkins.math]

Mizelle has McFarland with an ADP of rookie pick 23, followed in order by Claypool, Evans, Kelley, Bowden, Van Jefferson, and Hamler. Nothing too outrageous there.

[Orenthal Shames]

Mizelle has McFarland with an ADP of rookie pick 23, followed in order by Claypool, Evans, Kelley, Bowden, Van Jefferson, and Hamler. Nothing too outrageous there.

[jjleurquin]

Mizelle has McFarland with an ADP of rookie pick 23, followed in order by Claypool, Evans, Kelley, Bowden, Van Jefferson, and Hamler. Nothing too outrageous there.

I wouldn't take mcfarland over claypool can hamler or duvernay. He's also at best the 3rd RB on his team to start the season. Evans is the 2nd. I'll take Evans over him too.

Also where does mizelle get ther ADP from? But either way I'm not using a late 2nd/early 3rd on mcfarland.

[straightcashhomie831]

I think so..i faded both guys. Kelly went 2.09 in my league and Mcfarland went 3.07. I think everyone scrambled to pick a rb after all the top rbs were gone. I'd rather have Deejay Dallas or even Eno.

Actually McFarland mid 3rd doesn't seem too bad, figured he was going mid or late 2nd. He went 2.04 in a draft of mine. Kelley went 3.10 which seemed about right

true. I actually like Mcfarland better than Kelly. I wanted Mcfarland but Aiyuk fell to me at 2.09. With Moss, Dillon and Gibson gone i think Mcfarland deserves a look if you need a rb.

I think this guy in my league just liked Kelley...alot.

[QB Browns]

Yeah both went late 3rd in my league, so at that point it's hard to say they're overvalued. Once you're there in the draft it's just taking who you like.

[jcc6fd]

FWIW playerprofiler has James Conner as the RB most likely to sustain an injury in 2020 based on their predictive analytics (more than Guice was prior to him being cut). Also Snell is not serious competition for the backup job.

McFarland is going in the very late 2nd, early third in rookie drafts. For a guy who, at least statistically, has a high likelihood to get decent touches at somepoint his rookie year, who runs a 4.44, taken in the 4th round, with an injury prone back on his last year of his contract in front of him, his ADP actually seems like a bargain to me. The glut of round 1/2 WRs is driving his ADP down this year, but you have to remember that guys like Kenneth Dixon (Supplemental 4th round picks), can typically go at the back end of the first in a typical rookie draft. For the price of your late 2nd or early third you can get someone with a realistic shot to play at RB. Not too bad.

[Jigga94]

FWIW playerprofiler has James Conner as the RB most likely to sustain an injury in 2020 based on their predictive analytics (more than Guice was prior to him being cut). Also Snell is not serious competition for the backup job.

McFarland is going in the very late 2nd, early third in rookie drafts. For a guy who, at least statistically, has a high likelihood to get decent touches at somepoint his rookie year, who runs a 4.44, taken in the 4th round, with an injury prone back on his last year of his contract in front of him, his ADP actually seems like a bargain to me. The glut of round 1/2 WRs is driving his ADP down this year, but you have to remember that guys like Kenneth Dixon (Supplemental 4th round picks), can typically go at the back end of the first in a typical rookie draft. For the price of your late 2nd or early third you can get someone with a realistic shot to play at RB. Not too bad.

What about Jaylen Samuels? Is he a non factor now?

[mgscott]

FWIW playerprofiler has James Conner as the RB most likely to sustain an injury in 2020 based on their predictive analytics (more than Guice was prior to him being cut). Also Snell is not serious competition for the backup job.

McFarland is going in the very late 2nd, early third in rookie drafts. For a guy who, at least statistically, has a high likelihood to get decent touches at somepoint his rookie year, who runs a 4.44, taken in the 4th round, with an injury prone back on his last year of his contract in front of him, his ADP actually seems like a bargain to me. The glut of round 1/2 WRs is driving his ADP down this year, but you have to remember that guys like Kenneth Dixon (Supplemental 4th round picks), can typically go at the back end of the first in a typical rookie draft. For the price of your late 2nd or early third you can get someone with a realistic shot to play at RB. Not too bad.

What about Jaylen Samuels? Is he a non factor now?

Unfortunately, it seems he is. He was barely used in a lot of the games Conner was out. Tomlin couldn't get enough of the plodding Snell. There's even talk of Samuels not making the team.

[FantasyFreak]

FWIW playerprofiler has James Conner as the RB most likely to sustain an injury in 2020 based on their predictive analytics (more than Guice was prior to him being cut). Also Snell is not serious competition for the backup job.

McFarland is going in the very late 2nd, early third in rookie drafts. For a guy who, at least statistically, has a high likelihood to get decent touches at somepoint his rookie year, who runs a 4.44, taken in the 4th round, with an injury prone back on his last year of his contract in front of him, his ADP actually seems like a bargain to me. The glut of round 1/2 WRs is driving his ADP down this year, but you have to remember that guys like Kenneth Dixon (Supplemental 4th round picks), can typically go at the back end of the first in a typical rookie draft. For the price of your late 2nd or early third you can get someone with a realistic shot to play at RB. Not too bad.

What about Jaylen Samuels? Is he a non factor now?

Unfortunately, it seems he is. He was barely used in a lot of the games Conner was out. Tomlin couldn't get enough of the plodding Snell. There's even talk of Samuels not making the team.

Snell lost 12 pounds and apparently has really reshaped him body. He'll never be "fast", but all indications are, he's much quicker this year.