Why isn't AJ Dillon going higher in rookie drafts?

[Pullo Vision]

Bumping the bigger AJ Dillon thread. So there was a big discussion about Dillon after Aaron Jones got injured in the week 10 thread- viewtopic.php?f=5&t=222031&start=30#p2043172. MFU's comment about Dillon potentially being a FA in the future with limited production and receiving skills made me think of Michael Turner.

[cazzie33]

Going to be a 1a / 1b backfield moving forward after Jones return.

Already before injury Dillon's touches were creeping up. Add to the fact this regime took heat for the pick and they want to prove themselves right. They can safely hide behind the story they are easing Jones back in ... Opening the door to "ride the hot hand " & keep both fresh

[nathanq42]

I mean, we havent really gotten to see too much of Dillon up until now. I reckon like Henry his efficiency will increase as the bruises he inflicts on the defense start to add up. It's just that now he gets to take advantage of a softened up defense where Jones coming in fresh with his more versatile skillset would normally have closed out the game. Im excited, but Im not expecting him to be putting up Henry numbers out of the gate, even the big man took some time as the starter to really get going. But high end RB2 should be well within reach with Jones out, and I would expect an Ingram/Kamara type of thunder and lightning combo going forward when Jones returns (RBBC is just best for RB availability and longevity, just ask CMC/Barkley)

[mild]

Im excited, but Im not expecting him to be putting up Henry numbers out of the gate, even the big man took some time as the starter to really get going.

AJ Dillon's two career games in a featured role - and only one of them when he began the game as a starter:

22 touches, 129 scrimmage yards, 2 TD's
23 touches, 128 scrimmage yards, 2 TD's

In the other 3 games this season where he has been given 10+ carries, he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry.

These ARE Derrick Henry numbers. Discount Yung Henny, perhaps?

For those that say he has limited receiving game - what would you like to wager for the O/U on his targets/receptions this week? Would 5 targets, 3 receptions be a good over/under?

[nathanq42]

Im excited, but Im not expecting him to be putting up Henry numbers out of the gate, even the big man took some time as the starter to really get going.

AJ Dillon's two career games in a featured role - and only one of them when he began the game as a starter:

22 touches, 129 scrimmage yards, 2 TD's
23 touches, 128 scrimmage yards, 2 TD's

In the other 3 games this season where he has been given 10+ carries, he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry.

These ARE Derrick Henry numbers. Discount Yung Henny, perhaps?

For those that say he has limited receiving game - what would you like to wager for the O/U on his targets/receptions this week? Would 5 targets, 3 receptions be a good over/under?

Yeah they are great on a small sample size, Im not saying he is incapable of being a really dangerous RB, but Im not going to expect a second year player to jump into the mix and match the best rusher over the last 3 years. And I agree on the receiving front, while there isnt much evidence to say he will be a 50+ receptions a year guy, there also isnt to my knowledge any evidence to him being outright terrible at catching passes like Alfred Morris. JT didnt have much for or against his receiving ability and he is at 39 targets for 29 receptions and 300 yards just past the half way point. Currently Dillon is at 18 targets (half of JT's current half season figures, and in line with Henry's usage so far this year in the passing game with a couple games missed now) while working behind a back that is much better suited as a "receiving back" for 16 receptions and 200 yards.

I really think the lack of evidence for was taken as evidence against for both JT and Dillon, where it just doesnt seem to be true. I dont think they are Ekeler, CMC, or Kamara level receivers, but they can handle it perfectly fine. On a full season I wouldnt be surprised if they were both 40 catches a year type of backs. Heck, even Fournette caught 76 balls in 2019.

[mild]

Yeah they are great on a small sample size, Im not saying he is incapable of being a really dangerous RB, but Im not going to expect a second year player to jump into the mix and match the best rusher over the last 3 years. And I agree on the receiving front, while there isnt much evidence to say he will be a 50+ receptions a year guy, there also isnt to my knowledge any evidence to him being outright terrible at catching passes like Alfred Morris.

AJ Dillon has more 10+ yard catches in 2021 than he has 10+ yard rushes.

AJ Dillon is 5th in Yards Per Route Run behind only C-Pat, CMC, Tony Pollard, and Rhamondre Stevenson.

These two stats should tell you that when AJ Dillon is given an opportunity to receive out of the backfield, he is -very good- with that opportunity. One might even say "above average".

Aaron Jones is one of the best pass-catching RB's in the league. This fact is not in debate, but both things can be true: both of these backs perform above expectation when given Passing Game opportunity.

Aaron Jones is 7th right now in total targets at the RB position. 5-7 targets for AJ Dillon in this featured role should be achievable and expected; they usually combine for 9-12 targets on average.

AJ Dillon is Top 8 in Yards After Contact in 2021. There's elite company in this list: Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, Javonte Williams. "Guys you should know"

AJ Dillon ran a 4.5 forty, and has a 41 inch vertical jump - good for 96th percentile among all Running Backs - at 247 pounds. He is a rare and ridiculous athlete with explosion, and deceptively fast speed.

I ask you - in open space, with soft hands - with those measurables, with that ability after contact - who is stopping this battering ram of a man?

David Bakhtiari, 2020's top graded LT returns this week to bolster the Packers OL.

Some posters around here would try to convince you that AJ Dillon is not worth the words we type. They would say they "don't get the hype". But I'm not giving you hype. I'm giving you the facts. Add them up, put 'em in the pot, stir 'em around and let 'em brew. We're making Factual AJ Dillon soup over here, and it's tasting great.

AJ Dillon, featured back. For these next 2 weeks, let us take on board, and bear witness... to the monster man from Boston College.

[Shankopotamus]

Hear, hear!

[Jrblaha]

Yeah they are great on a small sample size, Im not saying he is incapable of being a really dangerous RB, but Im not going to expect a second year player to jump into the mix and match the best rusher over the last 3 years. And I agree on the receiving front, while there isnt much evidence to say he will be a 50+ receptions a year guy, there also isnt to my knowledge any evidence to him being outright terrible at catching passes like Alfred Morris.

AJ Dillon has more 10+ yard catches in 2021 than he has 10+ yard rushes.

AJ Dillon is 5th in Yards Per Route Run behind only C-Pat, CMC, Tony Pollard, and Rhamondre Stevenson.

These two stats should tell you that when AJ Dillon is given an opportunity to receive out of the backfield, he is -very good- with that opportunity. One might even say "above average".

Aaron Jones is one of the best pass-catching RB's in the league. This fact is not in debate, but both things can be true: both of these backs perform above expectation when given Passing Game opportunity.

Aaron Jones is 7th right now in total targets at the RB position. 5-7 targets for AJ Dillon in this featured role should be achievable and expected; they usually combine for 9-12 targets on average.

AJ Dillon is Top 8 in Yards After Contact in 2021. There's elite company in this list: Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, Javonte Williams. "Guys you should know"

AJ Dillon ran a 4.5 forty, and has a 41 inch vertical jump - good for 96th percentile among all Running Backs - at 247 pounds. He is a rare and ridiculous athlete with explosion, and deceptively fast speed.

I ask you - in open space, with soft hands - with those measurables, with that ability after contact - who is stopping this battering ram of a man?

David Bakhtiari, 2020's top graded LT returns this week to bolster the Packers OL.

Some posters around here would try to convince you that AJ Dillon is not worth the words we type. They would say they "don't get the hype". But I'm not giving you hype. I'm giving you the facts. Add them up, put 'em in the pot, stir 'em around and let 'em brew. We're making Factual AJ Dillon soup over here, and it's tasting great.

AJ Dillon, featured back. For these next 2 weeks, let us take on board, and bear witness... to the monster man from Boston College.

Makes me wish I had a share haha

[cazzie33]

We're slurpin' the soup. , drinkin' the kool-aid. & eatin' da' cornbread over here

[Pac_Eddy]

Aaron Jones is out, the third string RB is out, the Packers are working out Kerryon Johnson just to they have enough bodies at the position.

Young AJ Dillon is going to play a LOT of snaps the next two weeks. This will be fun.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

He's so unique. It seems impossible to weigh 250 and look and move the way he does. Just a big fan of his. His usage in the passing game is extremely encouraging. I don't think he's getting on the field as much as he has been and getting the amount of balls thrown his way if Rodgers didn't trust him. Jones re-signing was a kick in the balls, but it seems many teams are going RBBC now with the lengthened season.

[Pac_Eddy]

Jones re-signing was a kick in the balls, but it seems many teams are going RBBC now with the lengthened season.

Agree with the kick in the balls. Jones' cap hit goes from $4.4M this year, to $9M next year, then a huge jump to $19.25M in 2023 with $6.5M in dead cap. I think we'll have this shared backfield next season, with a chance for Dillon alone in 2023.

[sugbear65]

Are people really already comparing/expecting D. Henry level play out of Dillon? That only leaves room for disappointment. Talk about setting the bar high…

[nathanq42]

Are people really already comparing/expecting D. Henry level play out of Dillon? That only leaves room for disappointment. Talk about setting the bar high…

That's what Im trying to say my guy. Could be a great player, maybe he is Henry if TEN didnt waste the first 2.5 years of his career, but Im not banking on him coming off the bench essentially and matching the best rusher in the league for the past 3 seasons. Yes he has popped when given the carries, but hat has been twice in his career. Maybe he adds another two great games with Jones out and forces a 1a 1b situation, but this is getting a touch out of hand. Very good player, we will get to see if he can consistently put up 100+ yards from scrimmage and a TD or two going forward, but as you've said, those are lofty expectations.

[mild]

Maybe he adds another two great games with Jones out and forces a 1a 1b situation, but...

Hmmmmm.

2021, through 10 games played:

1A: Aaron Jones: 160 touches, 5.2 yards per touch, 839 scrimmage yards, 7 TD's.
1B: AJ Dillon: 113 touches, 5.5 yards per touch, 617 scrimmage yards, 3 TD's.

On 70% of Aaron Jones' opportunity share, AJ Dillon has 73% of the output.

Read: functionally speaking, by the stats, and when given opportunity - they are the same back. Their efficiency is the same (if not a slight edge to Dillon). The big scoring difference is the RZ opportunities, which have still gone to Jones - and which account for his 4 TD lead.

You're now telling me that Dillon is going to see this entire backfield, in an Aaron Rodgers offense, behind a great OL - for -at least- a two week stretch - and you're questioning why we're excited?

This is a classic case of the thirsty horse. You can lead it to water... but you can't make it drink.