Why isn't AJ Dillon going higher in rookie drafts?

[Avery]

I'm just jumping in and doing a bit of "drinking from the hose" catching up with fantasy football after taking a longer 'off-season' and I keep looking at AJ Dillon and not understanding why he is going so low in rookie drafts.

Is the opportunity there? I'd say no less than a number of backs going before him. Sure he might have a better back than some others in front of him but that back has a much clearer exit as he is in a contact year and with a second round pick dedicated to Dillon, it's a solid guess that Jones will be let to walk after the season.

Meanwhile, according to fantasy football calculator, his ADP (for 12 team PPR) is 3.06.

Especially this year, I'm not counting on rookies to do much so I'm no seeing why he is dropping so far and even a round higher, he still looks like great value.

What am I missing here?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

His lack of receiving upside I’d guess. But I agree he’s going too low. A few rbs that profile similarly would be Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb and they were mid firsts typically

[Mjvb5]

Shhhhhh lemme keep getting an RB drafted in the 2nd in the late 2nd or early 3rd

[Jcedwards]

I agree that he is going too low. Being compared to Henry and Chubb are big and as stated above, they were mid 1sts. I don’t think he’s terrible at catching passes either, I just don’t think BC used RBs much in the passing game (if I’m wrong though, someone correct me please).

I was able to grab him at 2.07 and I was ecstatic about it. Especially since I have Jones to pair him with this year.

[abloom]

Lack of receiving and the fact that Jones is still there. If Jones resigns suddenly Dillon's value drops.

[Avery]

His lack of receiving upside I’d guess. But I agree he’s going too low. A few rbs that profile similarly would be Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb and they were mid firsts typically

Those are two comps too (especially Henry) that I'm thinking for Dillon but maybe a bit more elusive than Henry.

[Avery]

Lack of receiving and the fact that Jones is still there. If Jones resigns suddenly Dillon's value drops.

Question because I don't know... has he shown a lack of receiving skills or a lack of receiving usage? It is different and I don't know the answer.

In terms of your second point, true but we can same the same about Dobnins/Ingram (although Ingram is older than Jones) and Swift/Johnson? And the Rams RBs may be a mess of a committee not only this year but next as well.

I'm not saying that Dillon shouldn't be below those guys but I'm not sure I see why he's going that much lower.

[FantasyFreak]

His lack of receiving upside I’d guess. But I agree he’s going too low. A few rbs that profile similarly would be Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb and they were mid firsts typically

Those are two comps too (especially Henry) that I'm thinking for Dillon but maybe a bit more elusive than Henry.

Yea, I mean the guy had 300 touches last year and not 1 catch. Yikes.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

His lack of receiving upside I’d guess. But I agree he’s going too low. A few rbs that profile similarly would be Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb and they were mid firsts typically

Those are two comps too (especially Henry) that I'm thinking for Dillon but maybe a bit more elusive than Henry.

Yea, I mean the guy had 300 touches last year and not 1 catch. Yikes.

Well, that was in 2017 not last year

[abloom]

Lack of receiving and the fact that Jones is still there. If Jones resigns suddenly Dillon's value drops.

Question because I don't know... has he shown a lack of receiving skills or a lack of receiving usage? It is different and I don't know the answer.

In terms of your second point, true but we can same the same about Dobnins/Ingram (although Ingram is older than Jones) and Swift/Johnson? And the Rams RBs may be a mess of a committee not only this year but next as well.

I'm not saying that Dillon shouldn't be below those guys but I'm not sure I see why he's going that much lower.

Dillon caught 21 passes in college... Total...

All rbs ahead of Dillon have more pass catching abilities and are slightly smaller backs. Jones is arguably more talented than the other rbs.

[FantasyFreak]

Lack of receiving and the fact that Jones is still there. If Jones resigns suddenly Dillon's value drops.

Question because I don't know... has he shown a lack of receiving skills or a lack of receiving usage? It is different and I don't know the answer.

In terms of your second point, true but we can same the same about Dobnins/Ingram (although Ingram is older than Jones) and Swift/Johnson? And the Rams RBs may be a mess of a committee not only this year but next as well.

I'm not saying that Dillon shouldn't be below those guys but I'm not sure I see why he's going that much lower.

Dillon caught 21 passes in college... Total...

All rbs ahead of Dillon have more pass catching abilities and are slightly smaller backs. Jones is arguably more talented than the other rbs.

98 percent of his touches were carries, that's definitely high.

[FantasyFreak]

Those are two comps too (especially Henry) that I'm thinking for Dillon but maybe a bit more elusive than Henry.

Yea, I mean the guy had 300 touches last year and not 1 catch. Yikes.

Well, that was in 2017 not last year

My mistake. Thanks.

[Blueboy]

He's only going so low because of the depth of this class. There are WRs with legitimate fantasy upside still around in the 3rd. But I agree that Dillon is going too low, he should be firmly in the mid second.

[Avery]

Question because I don't know... has he shown a lack of receiving skills or a lack of receiving usage? It is different and I don't know the answer.

In terms of your second point, true but we can same the same about Dobnins/Ingram (although Ingram is older than Jones) and Swift/Johnson? And the Rams RBs may be a mess of a committee not only this year but next as well.

I'm not saying that Dillon shouldn't be below those guys but I'm not sure I see why he's going that much lower.

Dillon caught 21 passes in college... Total...

All rbs ahead of Dillon have more pass catching abilities and are slightly smaller backs. Jones is arguably more talented than the other rbs.

98 percent of his touches were carries, that's definitely high.

Yeah. And to be clear, I'm not saying that Dillon is a good pass catcher, I'm just saying that lack of usage /= (necessarily) lack of ability in a facet of the game.

As a comp discussed, Chubb had 31 catches for his college career (or 4% of his touches). It turns out he's a solid receiver out of the backfield.

[Avery]

I'll add, since I seem to be taking the pro-Dillon point of view here (and I still don't know a lot about him) that, barring injury, we should know next year if he may hit big as we'll see what the Packers do with Jones.

That early clarity has value vs a WR that may take some time on your bench to figure out.