Why isn't AJ Dillon going higher in rookie drafts?

[nathanq42]

Maybe he adds another two great games with Jones out and forces a 1a 1b situation, but...

Hmmmmm.

2021, through 10 games played:

1A: Aaron Jones: 160 touches, 5.2 yards per touch, 839 scrimmage yards, 7 TD's.
1B: AJ Dillon: 113 touches, 5.5 yards per touch, 617 scrimmage yards, 3 TD's.

On 70% of Aaron Jones' opportunity share, AJ Dillon has 73% of the output.

Read: functionally speaking, by the stats, and when given opportunity - they are the same back. Their efficiency is the same (if not a slight edge to Dillon). The big scoring difference is the RZ opportunities, which have still gone to Jones - and which account for his 4 TD lead.

You're now telling me that Dillon is going to see this entire backfield, in an Aaron Rodgers offense, behind a great OL - for -at least- a two week stretch - and you're questioning why we're excited?

This is a classic case of the thirsty horse. You can lead it to water... but you can't make it drink.

No, Im not questioning why youre excited, Im excited too, Im starting him this week very very happily. Im just not going to *expect* overall RB1 production out of a guy that has 161 touches at the NFL level. Yes he has been every bit as efficient as Jones, yes he is a freak of nature physically, yes he can catch proficiently, yes he is in a great spot to get a lot of volume in an offense spearheaded by one of the best QBs of all time, yes Im expecting him to be a top 12 RB for the next couple of weeks he has the backfield all to himself. I personally am not expecting him to keep pace on a per game basis with *the best rusher to be in the NFL for the past 3 years* for an extended period of time *right now*, can he do it for the next 2 or 3 games? He's got as good of a shot as he will for the foreseeable future, but I am not *expecting* him to come in essentially off the bench and be a certified RB1 for the remainder of his career. Im not expecting him to go 20 for 63 yards and maybe a TD to save his day, but Im not expecting 15 carries, 7 catches for 160 yards and two TDs. And I highly doubt he will relegate Jones to the bench after that massive contract GB threw at him. This isnt like Kareem Hunt coming off the bench with no established starter with a significant amount of cap space devoted to him, and even then, who could have predicted Hunt would be RB1 for as long as he was from the first game he played? I sure as heck wouldnt have bet that. Dillon can be the super-charged Ingram to Jones' Kamara, and that is great, that one year both Ingram and Kamara were top 12 iirc. But

Not saying RB1 is out of the realm of possibility, and Im not saying Im expecting him to be a volume based TD dependent fringe-middle of the pack RB2. He should be a top 12 RB on a weekly basis as long as Jones is out, and I would expect top 20 with upside when Jones gets back. And that is a great spot to be, not everyone can be RB1

[cazzie33]

Cracks me up when people put words into other people’s mouths ... if you mention a guy has a similar skill set almost always the opposing viewpoint truthers try to position it that you said the player is going to be as good as player x,y or z

In this case it was pointed out that Jones was the superior rb and not to expect Dillon to be a rb1 as he can’t do what 33 can. So using Henry as an example that a power runner that is adequate at catching dump offs can be highly effective in today’s game despite the fact he isn’t super elusive or a down field receiving threat doesn’t mean that we are saying we expect him to be Henry’s equal and run @ a 2000 yd pace.

Any team that has A. Rodgers & D. Addams isn’t likely to restructure the whole offense to giving a RB 30 ish carries most weeks like Titans do even if Dillon is Henry-lite . Hell , even Henry probably wouldn’t have gotten the 2000 if he was on the Packers . Just saying that Dillon can be a top 12 RB given this opportunity even in ppr format as he can catch 3 or more each week. Likely can be a top 24 even after Jones comes back.

Never did anyone claim A.J. is a threat to be the Number One overall RB on a par w/ Henry but that kinda became the punch line. If I said Elijah Moore reminds me of Antonio Brown in his style of play doesn’t mean said he’s going to be the best WR of his era. Just that he can be highly effective all over the field and tough to take him out of the game plan. Same with Dillon, he can do enough in the passing game and has enough burst to get on the edge & into the 2nd level. Probably can’t hit top level speed like D. Henry to hit the house call which is what makes Henry such a freak athlete. But I’ll take 75% of what Henry offers & be very happy

[Pac_Eddy]

Cracks me up when people put words into other people’s mouths ... if you mention a guy has a similar skill set almost always the opposing viewpoint truthers try to position it that you said the player is going to be as good as player x,y or z

This is a pet peeve of mine. I see this happen way too often on more than fantasy football talk. Do I now try to straighten out what I was saying, thereby going off on a tangent of the original topic? Or do I just ignore that straw man comment and keep moving? It's frustrating.

[Anteaters]

Cracks me up when people put words into other people’s mouths ... if you mention a guy has a similar skill set almost always the opposing viewpoint truthers try to position it that you said the player is going to be as good as player x,y or z

True, but there are other comps that could be mentioned to avoid these types of misunderstandings.

For instance, instead of Henry, we could say a RB reminds us of Ingram. Instead of AJones, we could say Ekeler or Mixon or Melvin Gordon.

There's added ooommpff in using a Top Shelf comp - it may not sound as exciting to say Dillon reminds us of Melvin Gordon. But with that extra ooommpff, there's also the added implication of saying the lesser guy is going to be as good as Henry/AJones/CMC.

Or maybe that's just the Communications/Editing Guy (from a previous lifetime) coming out of me and I'm focusing too much on saying exactly what I mean to avoid accidental misunderstanding. Not everyone obsesses about things like that.

But I agree that some of us (ME INCLUDED) take those off-hand comparisons more seriously than you (or others) may have intended them. When I read/hear someone compare QB-A to Tom Brady, I automatically assume the speaker thinks QB-A could be as good as Brady. Because there are dozens of QBs from the past decade to use as comps, and if someone specifically chose Brady as the comp, I assume that person thinks QB-A could be as good as Brady. Maybe that's just a My-problem.

[Jigga94]

Henry was used as a comp because he's one of the few guys with that speed/size. Ingram isn't close to their size.

It bugs me a little with certain players but the Henry comp fits with Dillons physical traits.

There's generalized lazy comps, but sometimes you need to use a higher end player as a comp and that's not a big deal

Lazy comps are just that.. This bugs me when any WR under 5'11 that runs a decent speed is comped to DJAX

[Dynasty DeLorean]

My high end comp in the rb report was Ricky Williams

[Pac_Eddy]

My high end comp in the rb report was Ricky Williams

I can see that. He has a similar build and run style.

[cazzie33]

My high end comp in the rb report was Ricky Williams

BLASPHEMOUS

Ricky was a GOD of RBs in the pantheon 🏛 of all time greats !

[Anteaters]

My high end comp in the rb report was Ricky Williams

That's very high praise!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Well, the low end comp was Eddie Lacy

As for Ricky, he was same body type and athleticism as Dillon. Henry too but Henry significantly taller and more top end, AJD more compact and better initial burst but lower top end.

[cazzie33]

The meme of "FAT EDDY" chasing the hamburger was classic

[nathanq42]

Well... Solid game but nothing to write home about. 17 touches for 100 yards is solid, what is really encouraging is his usage as a receiver

[Pac_Eddy]

He looked really good throughout the game. The Vikings did a great job of bottling him up though, and the Packers were playing from behind most of the game.

Agree that his usage as a receiver was very nice. He showed great hands on a rocket that was over his head.

[mild]

Well... Solid game but nothing to write home about. 17 touches for 100 yards is solid, what is really encouraging is his usage as a receiver

Can't hate a guy for doing his job. He was solid with his opportunity, 100 on 17 touches isn't an awful day at the office. If he had fallen over for a donut, you can bet the boo birds would have been quick to be posting today.

Dalvin Cook - on the other side of the ball, on the team with the lead - got 25 touches for 115 yards today. This too was nothing to write home about... except, no, wait, actually, he scored a TD and got a 2PT conversion with his opportunities. So we're impressed because he scored, yes?

Rodger's touchdowns were from 25, 10, 18, and 75 yards out. The man was hot today.

Unfortunately, that meant limited opportunities from short yardage for our Quadfather king.

Nevertheless; we remain undeterred, and will return for Quadzilla watch next week vs. the Rams. Good times.

[nathanq42]

Well... Solid game but nothing to write home about. 17 touches for 100 yards is solid, what is really encouraging is his usage as a receiver

Can't hate a guy for doing his job. He was solid with his opportunity, 100 on 17 touches isn't an awful day at the office. If he had fallen over for a donut, you can bet the boo birds would have been quick to be posting today.

Dalvin Cook - on the other side of the ball, on the team with the lead - got 25 touches for 115 yards today. This too was nothing to write home about... except, no, wait, actually, he scored a TD and got a 2PT conversion with his opportunities. So we're impressed because he scored, yes?

Rodger's touchdowns were from 25, 10, 18, and 75 yards out. The man was hot today.

Unfortunately, that meant limited opportunities from short yardage for our Quadfather king.

Nevertheless; we remain undeterred, and will return for Quadzilla watch next week vs. the Rams. Good times.

Not a knock at all, as I said, solid game. If he never falters from this pace he is putting up 1700 yards and getting 80+ receptions, add in some TDs and that is easily a top 5 season. He belongs in the league, him and Jones are going to be a troublesome tandem for defenses to figure out