Antonio Gibson Rocket Ship - Round 2

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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:41 pm

Ice wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:08 pm Nothing wrong with different opinions but I just can’t buy the straw man argument of a 1/3 of his yards came in 2 games.


Sounds about like Taylor or CEH from the percentages

Haven’t checked but that isn’t an argument IMO at all

Many of us have used it but it’s just silly
It really is silly to still be hating on Gibson at this point.

We knew he was an athletic freak; what we didn't know was if he could play RB.

That question mark has been answered -- and there is still room for him to grow and this offense to improve.

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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby Pullo Vision » Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:25 pm

As an owner, I was enthusiastic about the possibility of Gibson getting more passing down snaps/touches. My concerns are Fitzpatrick won't dump it off as much as Alex Smith, and that Curtis Samuel will be strong competition for short range targets, and maybe even backfield snaps, if his usage in Carolina last year repeats itself.
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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby krtbuckeye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:42 am

I’m really hoping Gibson shows out in camp and truly takes the reigns of this backfield. I know it isn’t smart to just make a guy a workhorse when you have other capable guys to take the load off in McKissic and now Samuel also, but if Gibson takes another step forward as a true RB...sky’s the limit for this dude IMO.
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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby Bot101 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:57 pm

krtbuckeye wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:42 am I’m really hoping Gibson shows out in camp and truly takes the reigns of this backfield. I know it isn’t smart to just make a guy a workhorse when you have other capable guys to take the load off in McKissic and now Samuel also, but if Gibson takes another step forward as a true RB...sky’s the limit for this dude IMO.
He showed out last year, and to the surprise of everyone, got Adrian Peterson cut.

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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby Mjvb5 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:26 pm

If we use the Dallas games and mckissick against Gibson then isn't the current adp rb2 being overvalued as well?
Taylor has 1/3 of his yards in a game against LV and JAX two trash run Ds and Hynes finished in a similar proportion as mckissick from a per game perspective.

No one is holding these two facts against Taylor and all I've seen is unanimous gushing over his future as a high rb1. If this is an argument against Gibson then we've gotta apply it to everyone.

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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby Patsfan86 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:03 pm

Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:26 pm If we use the Dallas games and mckissick against Gibson then isn't the current adp rb2 being overvalued as well?
Taylor has 1/3 of his yards in a game against LV and JAX two trash run Ds and Hynes finished in a similar proportion as mckissick from a per game perspective.

No one is holding these two facts against Taylor and all I've seen is unanimous gushing over his future as a high rb1. If this is an argument against Gibson then we've gotta apply it to everyone.
Yup, its the old trap of people expecting it from taylor so their positive bias are confirmed, and not expecting this from gibson so they want to confirm their negative bias. People hate missing on guys its a real ego killer, we all do though, and people are going to have to admit they missed on gibson

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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby honcho55 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:34 pm

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:03 pm
Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:26 pm If we use the Dallas games and mckissick against Gibson then isn't the current adp rb2 being overvalued as well?
Taylor has 1/3 of his yards in a game against LV and JAX two trash run Ds and Hynes finished in a similar proportion as mckissick from a per game perspective.

No one is holding these two facts against Taylor and all I've seen is unanimous gushing over his future as a high rb1. If this is an argument against Gibson then we've gotta apply it to everyone.
Yup, its the old trap of people expecting it from taylor so their positive bias are confirmed, and not expecting this from gibson so they want to confirm their negative bias. People hate missing on guys its a real ego killer, we all do though, and people are going to have to admit they missed on gibson
Well, which is it though? Are people dinging Gibson too much, or not dinging JT enough? I feel like it’s a little of both, really.

I love Jt, was my rookie 1.01 all along last year. Grabbed him in a few. But man,I don’t see 2 overall. If I got an offer that’s worth 2 overall I’d take it. Also like Gibson, just missed him in most drafts (obviously coulda taken him way earlier or moved up, but I didn’t) was happy to pick him up in one league.
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Re: Antonio Gibson rocket ship

Postby PR0v3 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:41 pm

honcho55 wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:34 pm
Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:03 pm
Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:26 pm If we use the Dallas games and mckissick against Gibson then isn't the current adp rb2 being overvalued as well?
Taylor has 1/3 of his yards in a game against LV and JAX two trash run Ds and Hynes finished in a similar proportion as mckissick from a per game perspective.

No one is holding these two facts against Taylor and all I've seen is unanimous gushing over his future as a high rb1. If this is an argument against Gibson then we've gotta apply it to everyone.
Yup, its the old trap of people expecting it from taylor so their positive bias are confirmed, and not expecting this from gibson so they want to confirm their negative bias. People hate missing on guys its a real ego killer, we all do though, and people are going to have to admit they missed on gibson
Well, which is it though? Are people dinging Gibson too much, or not dinging JT enough? I feel like it’s a little of both, really.

I love Jt, was my rookie 1.01 all along last year. Grabbed him in a few. But man,I don’t see 2 overall. If I got an offer that’s worth 2 overall I’d take it. Also like Gibson, just missed him in most drafts (obviously coulda taken him way earlier or moved up, but I didn’t) was happy to pick him up in one league.
I don't think there's any reason to ding anyone for performing against bad defenses. Half the league is below average on defense. JT and Gibson played bad defenses last year and they'll play bad defenses this year, too. In two years, they'll also play bad defenses. In three years, they'll face more bad defenses. Bad defenses are a part of football, they aren't going away any time soon.
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Antonio Gibson - Round 2

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon May 24, 2021 9:56 am

We had some pretty lively debate about Antonio Gibson last season. He was admittedly a wild card, being a rookie in the COVID season, having crazy big play athleticism but a very small college workload, and changing from WR to RB in the NFL.

Now comes the sequel to that debate. First - full disclosure I am a Gibson owner who drafted him late in Rd 2 last year.

Here are Gibson’s current projections based on an average of the opinions of 9 experts who have completely broken out their 2021 numbers:

16 games
224 carries for 1024 yds 11 TDs 4.57 ypa
46 targets 40 catches for 296 yds 1 TD 7.40 ypr
2 fumbles

He’s typically being projected around RB12 with an ADP selection of 2.10 in a 12 team 1 QB ppr draft.

Here’s where I’m seeing these numbers as being below what even his floor ought to be (barring injury).

In the second half of the season, in games where he wasn’t injured, he averaged 17 carries per game while maintaining about 3 catches on 4 targets per game. That works out to 272 carries over a 16 game season. His projected 4.57 ypa is below his 4.70 ypa last season - so experts are predicting both his workload and his production will decrease from the second half of last year. That’s a disconnect to me.

Then we look at the team as a whole. Defensively they are going to remain stout. Their passing game is going to be better than the mess it was last year. The offensive line figures to be as good or better. The team did not add appreciably at the RB position. That only helps Gibson in that opponents will have to respect the pass more and they have not added a RB who would chew appreciably into his workload.

Here’s what I see as disconnect #2:
Ron Rivera in his 9 seasons as a HC in CAR ran the ball more than they passed when compared with the rest of the league. In those 9 years, here are his average rushing and passing rankings:
10th in rushing attempt, 7th in rushing yds, 7th in rushing TDs.
21st in passing attempts, 21st in passing yds, 18th in passing TDs.

But last year WAS rankings were:
25th in rushing attempt, 26th in rushing yds, 13th in rushing TDs.
9th in passing attempts, 25th in passing yds, 28th in passing TDs.

Rivera wants to run the ball as a HC a lot more than he did last season. That supports the thought that Gibson’s workload ought to go up, not down. And with the aid of a credible passing game, there’s no reason why his production ought to drop as well.

Then there is the way Rivera handled McCaffrey as a rookie. Remember the arguments when McCaffrey was drafted - that he’d only be a committee RB. Then his rookie year came and that position was only reinforced by the workload that Rivera gave him. But then in his sophomore season CMC got the lion’s share of that workload and his production skyrocketed to the best FF RB in dynasty leagues. Now we see some parallels in that Gibson was brought along slowly, especially with COVID trimming OTAs, training camp, and preseason. But we got a glimpse in the second half of the season of his workload escalating to 20 touches a game.

If these observations above are in line with what is going to happen this season, I see Gibson’s floor being greater than what his current average projections are:

16 games 255 rushing attempts for 1,211 yds and 12 TDs
48 targets with 42 catches for 321 yds and 2 TDs

If those numbers pan out, his floor is probably around RB9/10 this coming season, and if he were to maintain his 20 touches a game that gives room for upside from there in both the rushing and passing sides to a ceiling in the top 5 RBs. That’s a bonafide steal at his current ADP.

I rest my case. The floor is open for rebuttals.

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Re: Antonio Gibson - Round 2

Postby Jigga94 » Mon May 24, 2021 10:46 am

I was not able to draft him anywhere as he went from not being hyped in my early draft, to too hyped in my later draft.

I think 250 carries is probably his ceiling, but could easily see him catching more than 40 passes. I mean, 3 rec per game gets you 51 with 17 games. That said, 1500 or so yards sounds right with close to a TD per game. He's definitely more valuable in PPR and I'd bet he has a top 12 finish if healthy.

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Re: Antonio Gibson - Round 2

Postby Ice » Mon May 24, 2021 10:50 am

I own him in all leagues. Spent late firsts and early 2nds on him last year. Thinking 1500 yards with about 50 receptions. He is a really good versatile player. Year 2 with better pass pro skills should provide increased production as play volume should increase.
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Re: Antonio Gibson - Round 2

Postby Jigga94 » Mon May 24, 2021 12:21 pm

Ice wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 10:50 am I own him in all leagues. Spent late firsts and early 2nds on him last year. Thinking 1500 yards with about 50 receptions. He is a really good versatile player. Year 2 with better pass pro skills should provide increased production as play volume should increase.
Do you think that Gibson being a rookie in pass-pro is why JD got so much work? Seems we agree on the numbers and Gibson taking a step forward. I hadn't thought about his pass pro getting better leading to more opportunities

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Re: Antonio Gibson - Round 2

Postby Ice » Mon May 24, 2021 12:40 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 12:21 pm
Ice wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 10:50 am I own him in all leagues. Spent late firsts and early 2nds on him last year. Thinking 1500 yards with about 50 receptions. He is a really good versatile player. Year 2 with better pass pro skills should provide increased production as play volume should increase.
Do you think that Gibson being a rookie in pass-pro is why JD got so much work? Seems we agree on the numbers and Gibson taking a step forward. I hadn't thought about his pass pro getting better leading to more opportunities
I do think it plays a role. Basically, a new position with no camp to even learn schemes. I do think JD is solid player but he doesn't have near the power of Gibson. I think JD's reception numbers were a bit of an anomaly given the offense.

With the addition of Samuel, I think his skill set will actually push JD to sidelines as well. I just see a different system this season and that will bode well for Gibson who should take on more of a CMC type role.

If Gibson is better in Pass Pro it will disguise the offense better as JD really isn't much of a threat to run. I see JD more of Pollard type to Zeke going forward.

Gibson is a big back with rare burst and speed at 220 lbs.

Time will tell but as a Cowboy fan I am not happy about the moves Washington is making. They are an improving team.
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Re: Antonio Gibson - Round 2

Postby mild » Mon May 24, 2021 4:01 pm

Ice wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 12:40 pm Time will tell but as a Cowboy fan I am not happy about the moves Washington is making. They are an improving team.
I think they're going to win the East this year. They might have the best defense in football this season.

Cowboys are still favoured ($2.10) but WAS are right behind them ($3.60) in Vegas, and are probably the sharper odds if you're a gambler. I don't rate the Cowboys draft class this year at all...

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Re: Antonio Gibson - Round 2

Postby Ice » Mon May 24, 2021 4:19 pm

mild wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 4:01 pm
Ice wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 12:40 pm Time will tell but as a Cowboy fan I am not happy about the moves Washington is making. They are an improving team.
I think they're going to win the East this year. They might have the best defense in football this season.

Cowboys are still favoured ($2.10) but WAS are right behind them ($3.60) in Vegas, and are probably the sharper odds if you're a gambler. I don't rate the Cowboys draft class this year at all...
Hard to say who will win but I think Dallas had an outstanding draft on the defensive side of the ball. Parsons was the best player on defense in this draft and they needed a somewhat nasty leader on defense. Not sure many realize the havoc a sub 4.4 guy at 6'3" 245 lbs can create on defense against the run, in blitz packages, and against the pass. He will probably lead the team in sacks from the Will in their new defensive scheme. He instantly becomes the best defensive player on the team.

Don't see Washington winning that division with their QB but they will be really good led by a their defense so there is a chance except the same team never wins it twice in a row in that division.

The NFC EAST should get back to respectability this season.
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