Antonio Gibson Rocket Ship - Round 2

[Bronco Billy]

I’ll take the rising commodity over a future that’s completely unknown.

I don’t get this comment. The draft pick is a rising commodity. The nature of a draft pick is that the value increases, basically without risk, as you approach the draft. The pick can increase or decrease as belief of where that pick will slot become clearer, and perhaps some get skeptical of prospect projection of the pick, but the pick itself will always hold value and return good value as the draft approaches.

I disagree, and you pretty much said as much after the bolded statement. The value of the draft pick doesn’t undergo much change, but the perception of that value may.

The only tangible thing that changes player value is actual performance at the NFL level. How times have we seen high draft picks fail while undrafted players emerge as impact guys? There is no way to apply a previous set of events occurring in other players to get a definitive predictor of the future performance of any one individual player yet to play in the NFL. It’s a mistake commonly made as owners attempt to create some kind of repeatable formulae that will provide certainty in what by definition cannot possibly be certain. It cannot be done.

You can use the perception of changing value of a draft pick as a tool to leverage against a trade partner, but the value still won’t change.

However, we can start to make assessments on Gibson’s value because we can start tracking tangible evidence of his performance and of variables affecting his opportunity as we get more and more data. Gibson’s value right now should to any unbiased observer be on a significant rise based upon evidence provided so far. Next year’s say 1.11 pick? There’s no way to know it’s real value until next year when the pick actually becomes a selected player and that player selected with that pick starts to acquire evidence of ability to perform and circumstances surrounding him that affect that performance.

Well, that’s my theory at least. All this and a buck plus some change will get you a refill of your favorite tasty beverage at the nearest convenience store...

[TheNuts]

I’ll take the rising commodity over a future that’s completely unknown.

I don’t get this comment. The draft pick is a rising commodity. The nature of a draft pick is that the value increases, basically without risk, as you approach the draft. The pick can increase or decrease as belief of where that pick will slot become clearer, and perhaps some get skeptical of prospect projection of the pick, but the pick itself will always hold value and return good value as the draft approaches.

I disagree, and you pretty much said as much after the bolded statement. The value of the draft pick doesn’t undergo much change, but the perception of that value may.

The only tangible thing that changes player value is actual performance at the NFL level. How times have we seen high draft picks fail while undrafted players emerge as impact guys? There is no way to apply a previous set of events occurring in other players to get a definitive predictor of the future performance of any one individual player yet to play in the NFL. It’s a mistake commonly made as owners attempt to create some kind of repeatable formulae that will provide certainty in what by definition cannot possibly be certain. It cannot be done.

You can use the perception of changing value of a draft pick as a tool to leverage against a trade partner, but the value still won’t change.

However, we can start to make assessments on Gibson’s value because we can start tracking tangible evidence of his performance and of variables affecting his opportunity as we get more and more data. Gibson’s value right now should to any unbiased observer be on a significant rise based upon evidence provided so far. Next year’s say 1.11 pick? There’s no way to know it’s real value until next year when the pick actually becomes a selected player and that player selected with that pick starts to acquire evidence of ability to perform and circumstances surrounding him that affect that performance.

Well, that’s my theory at least. All this and a buck plus some change will get you a refill of your favorite tasty beverage at the nearest convenience store...

Perception of a change in value is basically a change in value.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Perception of a change in value is basically a change in value.

This. Perception is reality, as it's what we base our actions on.

There is still a wide variance in possible outcomes for Gibson. I don't think many are debating that. We'll all look back on this thread a few years from now and find out who's opinions/beliefs were most accurate. TBD.

[PR0v3]

Gibson was drafted to be the guy, in my opinion. Rivera was brought in to lead a complete organizational overhaul, you don’t do that by burning your first offensive selection with pretty decent draft capital just to feature the previous regime’s holdovers. Rivera, like most new coaches, has a vision for what he wants to build and preferences for the types of players he wants to play, and it seems pretty clear to me how Gibson might fit in to that. Whether he is actually capable of performing though, given the inexperience, is anyone’s guess. I expect he will get his chances very soon, however, and the performance will dictate how far he goes.

I see him getting 10 touches week one...

[FantasyFreak]

Gibson was drafted to be the guy, in my opinion. Rivera was brought in to lead a complete organizational overhaul, you don’t do that by burning your first offensive selection with pretty decent draft capital just to feature the previous regime’s holdovers. Rivera, like most new coaches, has a vision for what he wants to build and preferences for the types of players he wants to play, and it seems pretty clear to me how Gibson might fit in to that. Whether he is actually capable of performing though, given the inexperience, is anyone’s guess. I expect he will get his chances very soon, however, and the performance will dictate how far he goes.

I see him getting 10 touches week one...

Disagree. Raiders new regime drafted Bowden with similar draft capital. You don't draft a guy who isn't a RB to be your lead RB. Rivera also isn't a GM. He doesn't have full control over draft and roster movements. I expect the Skins to either draft, or sign a lead back from the plethora of FA RB's next year, a very deep class.

[Mjvb5]

Side note: if you league has return yards as scoring go get him now and just pay what it takes.

[Cameron Giles]

Gibson was drafted to be the guy, in my opinion. Rivera was brought in to lead a complete organizational overhaul, you don’t do that by burning your first offensive selection with pretty decent draft capital just to feature the previous regime’s holdovers. Rivera, like most new coaches, has a vision for what he wants to build and preferences for the types of players he wants to play, and it seems pretty clear to me how Gibson might fit in to that. Whether he is actually capable of performing though, given the inexperience, is anyone’s guess. I expect he will get his chances very soon, however, and the performance will dictate how far he goes.

I see him getting 10 touches week one...

I don't think he was. Even though he wasn't a part of the regime that selected Guice, it seemed like Guice was well on his way to being the lead dog of the pack. I think Gibson was drafted because they wanted another dimension to add to the backfield.

[Ice]

Gibson was drafted to be the guy, in my opinion. Rivera was brought in to lead a complete organizational overhaul, you don’t do that by burning your first offensive selection with pretty decent draft capital just to feature the previous regime’s holdovers. Rivera, like most new coaches, has a vision for what he wants to build and preferences for the types of players he wants to play, and it seems pretty clear to me how Gibson might fit in to that. Whether he is actually capable of performing though, given the inexperience, is anyone’s guess. I expect he will get his chances very soon, however, and the performance will dictate how far he goes.

I see him getting 10 touches week one...

Disagree. Raiders new regime drafted Bowden with similar draft capital. You don't draft a guy who isn't a RB to be your lead RB. Rivera also isn't a GM. He doesn't have full control over draft and roster movements. I expect the Skins to either draft, or sign a lead back from the plethora of FA RB's next year, a very deep class.

He is a RB. Just Sayin...... He may not be your kind of RB but he certainly was drafted as one.

[Mjvb5]

Gibson was drafted to be the guy, in my opinion. Rivera was brought in to lead a complete organizational overhaul, you don’t do that by burning your first offensive selection with pretty decent draft capital just to feature the previous regime’s holdovers. Rivera, like most new coaches, has a vision for what he wants to build and preferences for the types of players he wants to play, and it seems pretty clear to me how Gibson might fit in to that. Whether he is actually capable of performing though, given the inexperience, is anyone’s guess. I expect he will get his chances very soon, however, and the performance will dictate how far he goes.

I see him getting 10 touches week one...

Disagree. Raiders new regime drafted Bowden with similar draft capital. You don't draft a guy who isn't a RB to be your lead RB. Rivera also isn't a GM. He doesn't have full control over draft and roster movements. I expect the Skins to either draft, or sign a lead back from the plethora of FA RB's next year, a very deep class.

He is a RB. Just Sayin...... He may not be your kind of RB but he certainly was drafted as one.

He's listed on half he sites as a WR, half the sites as an RB. Drafted with the RB/WR tag. Worked about equally with the WRs and the RBs. I'm pretty sure its safe to say he'll play as both and return kicks. He's not Bowden though. More of a thicc Harvin or patterson type, positionless playmaker to me.

[FantasyFreak]

Gibson was drafted to be the guy, in my opinion. Rivera was brought in to lead a complete organizational overhaul, you don’t do that by burning your first offensive selection with pretty decent draft capital just to feature the previous regime’s holdovers. Rivera, like most new coaches, has a vision for what he wants to build and preferences for the types of players he wants to play, and it seems pretty clear to me how Gibson might fit in to that. Whether he is actually capable of performing though, given the inexperience, is anyone’s guess. I expect he will get his chances very soon, however, and the performance will dictate how far he goes.

I see him getting 10 touches week one...

Disagree. Raiders new regime drafted Bowden with similar draft capital. You don't draft a guy who isn't a RB to be your lead RB. Rivera also isn't a GM. He doesn't have full control over draft and roster movements. I expect the Skins to either draft, or sign a lead back from the plethora of FA RB's next year, a very deep class.

He is a RB. Just Sayin...... He may not be your kind of RB but he certainly was drafted as one.

He wasn't a RB in college, was my point. They are going to try and convert him, but he was a WR who occasionally lined up in the backfield. My point is, teams don't do that with the intention of making them their lead back. There is very, very little, if any record of it. Bowden is a "running back" in the same capacity as Gibson. They may be listed as it, and playing as it in camp, but they are new to the position.

[Ice]

Disagree. Raiders new regime drafted Bowden with similar draft capital. You don't draft a guy who isn't a RB to be your lead RB. Rivera also isn't a GM. He doesn't have full control over draft and roster movements. I expect the Skins to either draft, or sign a lead back from the plethora of FA RB's next year, a very deep class.

He is a RB. Just Sayin...... He may not be your kind of RB but he certainly was drafted as one.

He's listed on half he sites as a WR, half the sites as an RB. Drafted with the RB/WR tag. Worked about equally with the WRs and the RBs. I'm pretty sure its safe to say he'll play as both and return kicks. He's not Bowden though. More of a thicc Harvin or patterson type, positionless playmaker to me.

Half the Sites? That means Nothing.

He was drafted as a RB and Washington lists him as such on their depth charts. All the news is he is splitting time with AP at RB.

And for those of you who don't think he can play RB he had 114 carries in in 10 games and scored 9 TD's as a senior in HS just a few short years ago. He also had 44 receptions that year with 4 more TD's. He totaled 1545 yards in those games.

He has skill at both positions but he was drafted as a RB. It doesn't matter what a fantasy site or even a scout claims. It does matter what Washington says and how they class this player.

Time will tell on his success but it is a little early for revisionist history on this player.

[FantasyFreak]

My point was Gibson was not drafted to be a lead back, and he won't be a lead back, IMO. He's a great 2nd round flyer/upside play. The guy is a long shot to be a lead back in the NFL. Doesn't mean he can't be a useful part of the offense, and be fantasty relevant. Guy could easily be a RB2 in fantasy.

[PR0v3]

My point was Gibson was not drafted to be a lead back, and he won't be a lead back, IMO. He's a great 2nd round flyer/upside play. The guy is a long shot to be a lead back in the NFL. Doesn't mean he can't be a useful part of the offense, and be fantasty relevant. Guy could easily be a RB2 in fantasy.

I don’t think any RB was drafted to be a lead back except CEH, if we are talking about what these players are as of today. Many RBs were drafted with the hopes they could develop into a lead back, however, and I believe Gibson is in that discussion.

[FantasyFreak]

My point was Gibson was not drafted to be a lead back, and he won't be a lead back, IMO. He's a great 2nd round flyer/upside play. The guy is a long shot to be a lead back in the NFL. Doesn't mean he can't be a useful part of the offense, and be fantasty relevant. Guy could easily be a RB2 in fantasy.

I don’t think any RB was drafted to be a lead back, if we are talking about what these players are as of today. Many RBs were drafted with the hopes they could develop into a lead back, however, and I believe Gibson is in that discussion.

...and I don't. As I said, he's never really played the position full time. He has an uphill battle. He's very raw, and is way behind a ton of RB's coming out who have played the position most of their lives. This year, and next year. He'd be a complete outlier, if he became a 225-250 carry RB. I don't believe he was drafted to be that, either.

[PR0v3]

My point was Gibson was not drafted to be a lead back, and he won't be a lead back, IMO. He's a great 2nd round flyer/upside play. The guy is a long shot to be a lead back in the NFL. Doesn't mean he can't be a useful part of the offense, and be fantasty relevant. Guy could easily be a RB2 in fantasy.

I don’t think any RB was drafted to be a lead back, if we are talking about what these players are as of today. Many RBs were drafted with the hopes they could develop into a lead back, however, and I believe Gibson is in that discussion.

...and I don't. As I said, he's never really played the position full time. He has an uphill battle. He's very raw, and is way behind a ton of RB's coming out who have played the position most of their lives. This year, and next year. He'd be a complete outlier, if he became a 225-250 carry RB. I don't believe he was drafted to be that, either.

Fair enough, I guess I don’t see why a team would take him at 3.02 if they didn’t envision him becoming something more. 77 touches in college isn’t typically worthy of being drafted at all, let alone at 3.02, so there has to be some level of belief that he can be something he was not. A guy like Bowden actually produced in college, so Washington taking Gibson over Bowden just tells me that they think Gibson can be something more.

Given the information available to us, he is performing well in practice at things he didn’t do in college, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens...