If Clyde Wasn't Hyped Enough...

[jcc6fd]

Maybe this has been discussed but has anyone asked why the Williams opt out created such a value swing. He was going 13th overall as the top rookie in July (news broke late July) and now he’s the #5 overall. If we’re playing dynasty fantasy football and you believed he was worthy of being the 13th overall startup selection, what about Damien Williams choice to opt out one season changes that? 13th overall implies to me his talent is good enough that he would have started the majority of games this year anyway.

Does 4 games of production mean he will be worth more than Michael Thomas over their respective careers? Were people willing to take him 13th overall thinking he would be incredibly hampered by a timeshare in 2020? Prior to Williams opt out I don’t remember anyone taking him 1 or 2 in rookie drafts ever mentioning concern that he wouldn’t be massively productive in 2020. That was the whole reason for bumping him up 9-10 spots in rookie drafts after the NFL draft; his draft capital and presumed situation as the KC lead back.

1 of 2 things has been made very apparent. Either people seriously over value situation and have a complete redraft mindset despite playing dynasty, or 2. Situation and immediate return on investment truly hold more value than dynasty purests admit/understand. It’s likely a bit of both.

[bjd5211]

Maybe this has been discussed but has anyone asked why the Williams opt out created such a value swing. He was going 13th overall as the top rookie in July (news broke late July) and now he’s the #5 overall. If we’re playing dynasty fantasy football and you believed he was worthy of being the 13th overall startup selection, what about Damien Williams choice to opt out one season changes that? 13th overall implies to me his talent is good enough that he would have started the majority of games this year anyway.

Does 4 games of production mean he will be worth more than Michael Thomas over their respective careers? Were people willing to take him 13th overall thinking he would be incredibly hampered by a timeshare in 2020? Prior to Williams opt out I don’t remember anyone taking him 1 or 2 in rookie drafts ever mentioning concern that he wouldn’t be massively productive in 2020. That was the whole reason for bumping him up 9-10 spots in rookie drafts after the NFL draft; his draft capital and presumed situation as the KC lead back.

1 of 2 things has been made very apparent. Either people seriously over value situation and have a complete redraft mindset despite playing dynasty, or 2. Situation and immediate return on investment truly hold more value than dynasty purests admit/understand. It’s likely a bit of both.

Because his immediate value took a huge jump with the biggest competition for touches immediately now out of the picture. He was being bought as a guy who was projected to be an RB2 this year and RB1 in future years when Williams was still there, now he has the opportunity to be a top 10 RB right away on top of for the following years. Just like when Spencer Ware got hurt and the entire backfield workload fell into Hunt's lap as a rookie, the same thing is basically happening with CEH, except CEH is on an even better offense than Hunt was his rookie year and was drafted a lot higher. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it absolutely will not surprise me if CEH finishes as a top 5 RB in fantasy this year now that he basically has the backfield to himself.

[jcc6fd]

Because his immediate value took a huge jump with the biggest competition for touches immediately now out of the picture. He was being bought as a guy who was projected to be an RB2 this year and RB1 in future years when Williams was still there, now he has the opportunity to be a top 10 RB right away on top of for the following years. Just like when Spencer Ware got hurt and the entire backfield workload fell into Hunt's lap as a rookie, the same thing is basically happening with CEH, except CEH is on an even better offense than Hunt was his rookie year and was drafted a lot higher. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it absolutely will not surprise me if CEH finishes as a top 5 RB in fantasy this year now that he basically has the backfield to himself.

4-5 games of being the lead back could/would certainly be the difference between an RB1-RB2 finish. But do those 4 games elevate his value above Micheal Thomas in Dynasty? Obviously the repercussions are huge for redraft/this season, but the fact that we're talking about his ending numbers this year as the reason he rose to a top 5 startup pick kind of makes my point. There is a redraft mindset in Dynasty whether we like it or not because a premium is placed on immediate return on investment. For a potential top flight scorer in CEH that is fine in rookie drafts but at 5 overall it is likely a huge mistakes in startups. The obvious examples are the 3rd and 4th round running backs that get drafted into open backfields (this year it's Vaughn). Those players get taken above 1st and 2nd round WRs. The problem is the immediate value gained by taking a back with a path to lead status doesn't yield weekly points that help anyone win games, i.e. if you are counting on Vaughn to help you win in 2020 in a 10-12 team league, he won't, because though he could be a lead back he won't be above an RB3 in scoring (and he'll likely be lower). Then when he's predictably replaced next year or 2 years from now all that immediate value goes away and the Chris Godwins of the world emerge, leaving the Vaughn drafter back at square one. Obviously not every WR hits, but the point is we're taking bad statistical shots when we overvalue immediate production.

Back to CEH, you're asserting his potential 2020 performance (specifically the gain in production from not competing with Damien) justifies his status as the #5 dynasty asset. Objectively he was taken as the 10th rookie in pre NFL mock drafts. Post draft but prior to the Damien news he was actually the consensus #2 rookie pick by ADP (though it was certainly close). Additionally the NFL draft doesn't cover this gap in talent or presumed fantasy output, as he was the last round 1 selection taken by a system that will keep the ball in the QBs hands (thus they drafted a pass catcher), and every year we pass on skill position players drafted earlier because we implicity know their value isn't in filling stat sheets but what they do to help a team win, i.e. Will Fuller, John Ross.

Based on this widely shared perception, one would conclude that his talent is not such that he can be counted on for sustained success that we expect from a stud first round startup pick, like Michael Thomas. If CEH has a good year one, by finishing as an RB1, does his production help you win more games for the remainder of his career than Michael Thomas? Based on career longevity of the position, Thomas's proven stud consistency, and CEH's talent profile the answer appears to be no. Austin Ekeler was the PPR RB4 in 2019 and he's not a round 1 dynasty selection, and he's only 25. So I don't buy that 4 games of presumed increased production should elevate a player to top 5 startup status.

Also there's a difference in finishing as an RB2 playing 16 games as a starter and finishing as an RB2 with 10-12 games as a starter. A player's PPG and ability to help you win matchups is much more valuable. Prior to Damien's opt-out the scenario people envisioned was an early takeover of the lead spot due to draft capital. Additionally neither CEH nor Williams were ever going to get 20 carries a game in the KC offense. The value was in catching passes and scoring TD's which, if CEH plays up to his billing, was going to happen whether Williams was there or not.

All this to say if you thought Damien was a Barkley level talent worthy of a top 5 startup selection, then Damien Williams opting out is nice but didn't change much. If you're radically changing your rankings because of 4-5 games of increased production for one year, my opinion is that you'll regret it.

[bjd5211]

It absolutely is worth it, the only reason guys like Mixon/Chubb/Dalvin are/were going ahead of CEH to begin with is because they projected to be better over the next 1-2 years, but history of the RB position tells us that CEH is probably more likely to be a high level RB over the next 4 years. Removing the Williams barrier though means the short term difference between CEH and those guys shrinks, while he still maintains the longterm advantage. There is nothing more valuable than getting a stud RB as a rookie, because you then get all of their peak production, rather than paying a premium for a RB with 2-3 years already in the league who has used up a good chunk of their peak years. Yes there's risk in a rookie not panning out, but there's just as much risk in a "proven veteran". David Johnson, Todd Gurley, OBJ, Leveon Bell were all considered elite, 1st overall pick in a startup caliber players over the last 3-4 years and they've all had pretty drastic falls in very short periods of time. I think CEH is more likely to retain top 10 startup value next year than close to half of the current top 10.

[FantasyFreak]

IF CEH hits, it will be worth taking him over Chubb, Mixon etc. He's 21. 2-3 years on a RB's prime is huge. It's why people take the leap on a RB like him, or JT. If JT rushes for 1200 yards a year or more, then he's basically Chubb but younger. I have a best ball rebuilding team that should be a contender as soon as next year, maybe even this year if a few rookie RB's produce. I was offered Sutton and Chubb for JT and the pick that ended up being Dobbins, and I declined it. (Scoring is a little more favourable to a RB than a WR compared to your average league). I understand why some will do it, it is just a bit riskier when you haven't seen them in the league yet.

[jenkins.math]

4-5 games of being the lead back could/would certainly be the difference between an RB1-RB2 finish. But do those 4 games elevate his value above Micheal Thomas in Dynasty? Obviously the repercussions are huge for redraft/this season, but the fact that we're talking about his ending numbers this year as the reason he rose to a top 5 startup pick kind of makes my point. There is a redraft mindset in Dynasty whether we like it or not because a premium is placed on immediate return on investment. For a potential top flight scorer in CEH that is fine in rookie drafts but at 5 overall it is likely a huge mistakes in startups. The obvious examples are the 3rd and 4th round running backs that get drafted into open backfields (this year it's Vaughn). Those players get taken above 1st and 2nd round WRs. The problem is the immediate value gained by taking a back with a path to lead status doesn't yield weekly points that help anyone win games, i.e. if you are counting on Vaughn to help you win in 2020 in a 10-12 team league, he won't, because though he could be a lead back he won't be above an RB3 in scoring (and he'll likely be lower). Then when he's predictably replaced next year or 2 years from now all that immediate value goes away and the Chris Godwins of the world emerge, leaving the Vaughn drafter back at square one. Obviously not every WR hits, but the point is we're taking bad statistical shots when we overvalue immediate production.

Back to CEH, you're asserting his potential 2020 performance (specifically the gain in production from not competing with Damien) justifies his status as the #5 dynasty asset. Objectively he was taken as the 10th rookie in pre NFL mock drafts. Post draft but prior to the Damien news he was actually the consensus #2 rookie pick by ADP (though it was certainly close). Additionally the NFL draft doesn't cover this gap in talent or presumed fantasy output, as he was the last round 1 selection taken by a system that will keep the ball in the QBs hands (thus they drafted a pass catcher), and every year we pass on skill position players drafted earlier because we implicity know their value isn't in filling stat sheets but what they do to help a team win, i.e. Will Fuller, John Ross.

Based on this widely shared perception, one would conclude that his talent is not such that he can be counted on for sustained success that we expect from a stud first round startup pick, like Michael Thomas. If CEH has a good year one, by finishing as an RB1, does his production help you win more games for the remainder of his career than Michael Thomas? Based on career longevity of the position, Thomas's proven stud consistency, and CEH's talent profile the answer appears to be no. Austin Ekeler was the PPR RB4 in 2019 and he's not a round 1 dynasty selection, and he's only 25. So I don't buy that 4 games of presumed increased production should elevate a player to top 5 startup status.

Also there's a difference in finishing as an RB2 playing 16 games as a starter and finishing as an RB2 with 10-12 games as a starter. A player's PPG and ability to help you win matchups is much more valuable. Prior to Damien's opt-out the scenario people envisioned was an early takeover of the lead spot due to draft capital. Additionally neither CEH nor Williams were ever going to get 20 carries a game in the KC offense. The value was in catching passes and scoring TD's which, if CEH plays up to his billing, was going to happen whether Williams was there or not.

All this to say if you thought Damien was a Barkley level talent worthy of a top 5 startup selection, then Damien Williams opting out is nice but didn't change much. If you're radically changing your rankings because of 4-5 games of increased production for one year, my opinion is that you'll regret it.

Perhaps I'm reading into your post too much, but it sounds like you're just not a fan of CEH and it's more about that than his new ADP. Regardless of that, I think you are overlooking a few things.

First off youre not taking positional scarcity into account. Its much harder to find a RB than a WR. I'd much rather reach on a RB early than try and fill it later. According to Mizelle ADP the RB20 and 21 are Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Your WR20-24 are Lamb, McLaurin, Keenan Allen, Jeudy. You just have much more attractive options later at WR than you do RB. Its just a numbers game.

Secondly, your point about where he was going pre-draft is irrelevant unless you think this board and yourself are betting at scouting NFL talent than the guys paid to do so. I know we all like to tout our prowess and resumes of hits and misses over the years, but I'm going to side with Andy Reid and company (who have a pretty solid track record of offensive success) over most. But if you think the pre-draft rankings matter, this board had Hakeem freakin Butler as the 1.01 pre draft so there is that....

The NFL game is changing. You brought up that CEH probably won't get 20 carries a game as evidence he won't be successful. Alvin Kamara doesn't get 20 a game. Miles Sanders isn't going to get 20 a game. James White doesn't get that. Teams are airing it out more so the RB getting a ton of carries really shouldn't matter of he is getting targeted consistently.

I'll end with this as it pertains to player value. If CEH balls out and does Kareem Hunt numbers as a rookie (I believe Hunt was the RB4 his rookie season), his value will increase. MT really cannot increase from a value standpoint after last season. I still expect MT to be great, but I just don't see a way his value hasn't already peaked.

[jcc6fd]

All fair points. I actually do like CEH, I just disagree that certain factors of his situation justify his consensus startup ADP. I think the point that a guy like Cook being valued over him was only due to the half season of mitigated production due to Damien playing is an interesting one, in that it increases his viability for a long enough period to merit value adjustments when considering the length of a time an RB will have stud value.

All of the positive arguments on his behalf still assume a lot that we can’t know. Obviously that’s true of almost every rookie (Barkley being a notable exception). I guess I am more concerned than most based on his rapid climb in rankings with it almost solely based on his situation. Maybe I’m not fairly judging his ranking compared to other high end rookies. It’s really just his ranking changes over the course of the lead up to the season that give me concern at his price.

[Cameron Giles]

All fair points. I actually do like CEH, I just disagree that certain factors of his situation justify his consensus startup ADP. I think the point that a guy like Cook being valued over him was only due to the half season of mitigated production due to Damien playing is an interesting one, in that it increases his viability for a long enough period to merit value adjustments when considering the length of a time an RB will have stud value.

All of the positive arguments on his behalf still assume a lot that we can’t know. Obviously that’s true of almost every rookie (Barkley being a notable exception). I guess I am more concerned than most based on his rapid climb in rankings with it almost solely based on his situation. Maybe I’m not fairly judging his ranking compared to other high end rookies. It’s really just his ranking changes over the course of the lead up to the season that give me concern at his price.

You're right. It's entirely based off his situation. People are drafting "Chiefs starting RB in Pat Mahomes/Andy Reid offense" not "Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the talent." Because if they were, CEH is the 5th-6th best RB in this class.

[bjd5211]

All fair points. I actually do like CEH, I just disagree that certain factors of his situation justify his consensus startup ADP. I think the point that a guy like Cook being valued over him was only due to the half season of mitigated production due to Damien playing is an interesting one, in that it increases his viability for a long enough period to merit value adjustments when considering the length of a time an RB will have stud value.

All of the positive arguments on his behalf still assume a lot that we can’t know. Obviously that’s true of almost every rookie (Barkley being a notable exception). I guess I am more concerned than most based on his rapid climb in rankings with it almost solely based on his situation. Maybe I’m not fairly judging his ranking compared to other high end rookies. It’s really just his ranking changes over the course of the lead up to the season that give me concern at his price.

You're right. It's entirely based off his situation. People are drafting "Chiefs starting RB in Pat Mahomes/Andy Reid offense" not "Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the talent." Because if they were, CEH is the 5th-6th best RB in this class.

And yet he was the 1st taken in the NFL Draft, not just fantasy drafts, and the KC/Mahomes/Reid offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon and is proven to be very good in fantasy for a RB who gets a large number of touches. Let's not forget how it turned the very average Damien Williams into the FPPT King.

[Cameron Giles]

And yet he was the 1st taken in the NFL Draft, not just fantasy drafts, and the KC/Mahomes/Reid offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon and is proven to be very good in fantasy for a RB who gets a large number of touches. Let's not forget how it turned the very average Damien Williams into the FPPT King.

I'm not doubting that CEH is a solid football player. I think he is the best receiving back in this class and landed in the most optimal situation to showcase those skills. However, he is not an elite RB talent, and I think there are several RBs in this class who are more talented than him.

His rise in value is NOT because of talent. He does not have the profile of an elite back, which is typically how rookie RBs rise in value like this. Will he be a good player? Yes, I think so, but I think he's being ridiculously overvalued right now.

[Yarnith]

Honestly I thought Swift and JT were the class of the RB's with Dobbins, CEH and Dillon in a clump of pick your flavor. Swift going to Detriot, the RB vortex that can smother any talent and CEH going to KC with a 1st rnd pick the jump was pretty easy to do. Comparing to the NFL as a whole for a startup the logic still tracks to me. The number 1 overall rookie is worth a 1 in a startup. I don't know if I would grab him at that ADP but I can understand people who do.

I also trust the judgement of good coaches. If Andy says CEH is the guy we should own I will trust that. He has never steered me wrong so if he believes it is a lot easier for me to believe. If Adam Gase had drafted CEH I would have dropped him to a 2nd round grade not just because of landing spot but because I have my doubts about that HC's competence.

[Johnny B. Goode]

And yet he was the 1st taken in the NFL Draft, not just fantasy drafts, and the KC/Mahomes/Reid offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon and is proven to be very good in fantasy for a RB who gets a large number of touches. Let's not forget how it turned the very average Damien Williams into the FPPT King.

I'm not doubting that CEH is a solid football player. I think he is the best receiving back in this class and landed in the most optimal situation to showcase those skills. However, he is not an elite RB talent, and I think there are several RBs in this class who are more talented than him.

His rise in value is NOT because of talent. He does not have the profile of an elite back, which is typically how rookie RBs rise in value like this. Will he be a good player? Yes, I think so, but I think he's being ridiculously overvalued right now.

Well said. I think people mistake any criticism as someone who thinks CEH will bust.

At his ADP you’re betting on him being a top 3 RBs for several years. Betting on him to be good is risky enough as his profile would be an outlier. Betting on him to be an elite top 3 back is an even riskier bet. To each their own

[Johnny B. Goode]

All fair points. I actually do like CEH, I just disagree that certain factors of his situation justify his consensus startup ADP. I think the point that a guy like Cook being valued over him was only due to the half season of mitigated production due to Damien playing is an interesting one, in that it increases his viability for a long enough period to merit value adjustments when considering the length of a time an RB will have stud value.

All of the positive arguments on his behalf still assume a lot that we can’t know. Obviously that’s true of almost every rookie (Barkley being a notable exception). I guess I am more concerned than most based on his rapid climb in rankings with it almost solely based on his situation. Maybe I’m not fairly judging his ranking compared to other high end rookies. It’s really just his ranking changes over the course of the lead up to the season that give me concern at his price.

You're right. It's entirely based off his situation. People are drafting "Chiefs starting RB in Pat Mahomes/Andy Reid offense" not "Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the talent." Because if they were, CEH is the 5th-6th best RB in this class.

And yet he was the 1st taken in the NFL Draft, not just fantasy drafts, and the KC/Mahomes/Reid offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon and is proven to be very good in fantasy for a RB who gets a large number of touches. Let's not forget how it turned the very average Damien Williams into the FPPT King.

In the two years Patrick Mahomes has been the quarterback of the KC Chiefs, where have the KC Chiefs ranked in HB touches (rushes plus receptions)?

[bjd5211]

Touches don't matter, fantasy points do, and KC produces points.

[Cameron Giles]

Touches don't matter, fantasy points do, and KC produces points.

You're essentially agreeing. His rise in value is because of landing spot rather than the actual talent, which makes this type of ADP extremely risky without playing a game

It's essentially banking on him being a legitimate Top 3 RB.

I'll gladly take more talented RBs later for a fraction of the price.