Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

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johnnymozart
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Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby johnnymozart » Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:35 pm

This post may come across as a fanboy take, Hindsight is 20/20, type of thing. I admittedly took Monty over Jacobs in the 2019 draft (Harry Sanders went 1+2, threw me off but I had a plan I stuck to) and paid a good price to ensure I got my guy.

I have seen a lot of posts that indicate DM is a buy-low. I have seen numerous expert articles with the same sentiment.

I have seen almost zero articles that call Jacobs out as a premier buy. Buy high? His assumed price tag has skyrocketed, assumptions that mainly seem driven by a perception he will suddenly become a 40-50 reception back in 2020. His baked in price and ceiling is already realized- mizelle adp-- which I know is a limited sample each month-- says that he is roughly equal to Chubb. Love to see any Chubb owner that says yes to a 1 to 1 Jacobs swap-- it's nonsense.

When I drafted Monty, the biggest driver in my mind was "this guy can take a thrashing, a beating, and power on" he will stick in the league, and does everything well in a similar way to Frank Gore. He breaks tackles at an incredible rate (Jacobs does too, ick). I believed he may not be a flashy option but he will be a steady one. Now Monty has a clear path to a repeat in volume, and a situation that seems to be improving.

Jacobs already had shoulder issues, but seemed to take on less of a burden, right? DWash put up pretty good replacement numbers for Jacobs in his missed games. This is a dalvin cook, talent is there, but his body will betray him situation... (Oh you own cook, yah my take is sell sell for premier cost if able). I do not believe the shoulder stuff goes away. Would we say the same about the next man up for Chi? They believe in Monty and I believe it will pay off considerably.

I would still outright deny Jacobs for Monty straight up if it were offered. Tell me why I'm wrong!
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:42 pm

You're wrong. Oh, BTW, basing a players trajectory on "articles" is not a good way to go about things. Jacobs is a better RB on basically every level, and his shoulder injury isn't considered a long term thing. The Bears offense is a joke, The Raiders are invested in Jacobs way more than the Bears are to Monty, and just drafted players to make his life even easier, despite his insane yards per carry vs a stacked box.

Monty

Base front: 3.2 YPC

Stacked front: 2.4 YPC

Jacobs

Base front: 4.4 YPC

Stacked front: 4.9 YPC

I could go on, but don't feel the need to. In a year I think this post will look pretty bad.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby PR0v3 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:48 pm

Eww. Monty looked so average to me last year. He’s like Lev Bell with zero burst to actually get through the hole. No power, no speed, he doesn’t do anything to earn more yeards than what is given.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:54 pm

johnnymozart wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:35 pm

I would still outright deny Jacobs for Monty straight up if it were offered. Tell me why I'm wrong!
Because the ADP difference is astronomical, and you be a dullard not to do so. Honestly, I loved Monty early in the college scouting process, but his lack of burst is apparent, the team he's on does not have direction, and he's does not have the talent to overcome it. The Raiders invested in Jacobs in the first, have shown on every level they will rely heavily on him, improved the offensive talent aroond him, and he was already on pace for 1300 yards as a rookie before they shut him down because they weren't going anywhere.

This just reeks of take lock. I don't get it at all.

Here's an article, though. It explains why Jacobs didn't catch a lot of passes, and how they want to involve him more. From Mayock himself.

https://fansided.com/2020/02/25/raiders ... ents-2020/

Here's another, and there are more, if you actually look. Mayock and the Raiders were quite clear about involving him more as a pass catcher, like he was at Bama.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/footb ... ving-work/
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:01 pm

No, it won't.

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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby killer_of_giants » Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:25 am

montgomery is a "just a guy" prototype

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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby I-ROK » Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:18 am

Just imagine if you didn’t mess up taking Montgomery over Jacobs you could have traded Jacobs for Montgomery and a 2021 1st and 2nd

Or just kept the better RB (Jacobs). I agree with FF just seems like Take Lock more than a Flag Plant

Not to mention in order for Montgomery’s trajectory to exceed Jacobs, he’d have to be a top 5 RB. Jacobs is already a RB1.

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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:38 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:54 pm
johnnymozart wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:35 pm

I would still outright deny Jacobs for Monty straight up if it were offered. Tell me why I'm wrong!
Because the ADP difference is astronomical, and you be a dullard not to do so.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby TheNuts » Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:47 am

I don't remember hearing all this monty hate last year. I never liked him at all. It was beyond dumb to invest the pick the Bears did for a JAG running back at best. At least take a shot on a guy with actual athleticism.

Didn't everyone base their love on his record breaking broken tackle stats that pff gave him? How's that working out in the NFL? The guy has such a slow juke. He wastes so much body movement avoiding tacklers that it makes the move look cool when he actually pulls it off. The problem is he is so damn slow. How did i see this coming and Ryan Pace didn't?
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby mgscott » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:05 am

TheNuts wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:47 am I don't remember hearing all this monty hate last year. I never liked him at all. It was beyond dumb to invest the pick the Bears did for a JAG running back at best. At least take a shot on a guy with actual athleticism.

Didn't everyone base their love on his record breaking broken tackle stats that pff gave him? How's that working out in the NFL? The guy has such a slow juke. He wastes so much body movement avoiding tacklers that it makes the move look cool when he actually pulls it off. The problem is he is so damn slow. How did i see this coming and Ryan Pace didn't?
This.

The Bears spent their first pick on him, 2nd rounder, since they had traded their 1st rounder that year. I was also baffled by the love he got last year and think the only current believers are those that got stuck drafting him and don't want to admit the mistake yet. His "jukes and missed tackles" only sets himself up for big hits by the next defender because he is too slow to get out of those moves and make positive yardage from them. He was an easy pass for me last year and is a do not touch this year in any trades.

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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby Chwf3rd » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:26 am

1. Jacobs was the consensus RB1 by actual draft analysts last year
2. Jacobs went in the 1st round while DMont went in the 3rd
3. Jacobs is tied to a great OL, an offense built around him, and a coach that is heavily invested in his success
4. Just use the eye test - Jacobs looked like one of the best backs in the league last year
5. Injuries - why do you think Jacobs has long term health issues? The fact that he actually managed to play at a high level through a shoulder tear makes me want him even more
6. Pass catching - one of his strengths out of Bama was his pass catching ability; makes sense that he wouldn’t be used as much on 3rd downs as a rookie given his shoulder injury and that he was just learning the offense; still lots of upside here

I actually own Chubb in one league and have been trying to trade him for Jacobs all offseason with no luck
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:36 am

Chwf3rd wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:26 am I actually own Chubb in one league and have been trying to trade him for Jacobs all offseason with no luck
I wouldn't do that deal with you either, Jacobs is RB5 overall for me. Montgomery on the other hand probably isn't top 20, and I was a believer at one point too. I had 1.01, 1.02 and 1.04 in one league last year and took Jacobs, Montgomery, Harry (Sanders obviously went 3). I soon realized this was a mistake thankfully and was able to trade Montgomery + '20 3 for Hollywood + '20 2, and then earlier this offseason traded Hollywood in a package for 1.01 and get CEH. It was just pretty clear almost right away that Montgomery is a solid player, but won't ever been a real difference maker.

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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:35 pm

Jacobs is overvalued to me as a two down back and even then I can say with confidence Montgomery will not exceed him

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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby Mjvb5 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:41 pm

Because the monty being equal to Jacobs narrative never made sense last year and makes less sense now.

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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:41 pm

TheNuts wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:47 am

Didn't everyone base their love on his record breaking broken tackle stats that pff gave him? How's that working out in the NFL?
I remember the Seahawks quoting PFF's yards after contact for Penny. Imagine if the Seahawks had taken Chubb instead. He was the exact type of back they would love, but that PFF stat made it look like Penny was a beast to bring down. Unfortunately, if a LB touches your arm, and you run for an 80 yard touchdown untouched after that, all those yards after the LB barely touched you count as yards after contact. The word "contact" is a pretty loose term.
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