Denzel Mims official thread

[DLF3000]

I think [Gase is] going to be the biggest thing holding that entire team back and think he's not only the worst coach in the NFL, but maybe the worst one I've seen in my years of watching football. Forget actual skills (which I don't think are good either), his attitude is trash and will have a negative impact on a team that obviously needs strong leadership right now.

Agree, that's one reason why I said earlier I don't expect much out of Mims this year. True dumpster fire leadership and organization.

And I can't believe I'm going to say this, but after seeing several interviews and other interactions, Gase might just be an even more ornery coach to deal with than... Bill Belichick.

[dustyroads]

I think [Gase is] going to be the biggest thing holding that entire team back and think he's not only the worst coach in the NFL, but maybe the worst one I've seen in my years of watching football. Forget actual skills (which I don't think are good either), his attitude is trash and will have a negative impact on a team that obviously needs strong leadership right now.

Agree, that's one reason why I said earlier I don't expect much out of Mims this year. True dumpster fire leadership and organization.

And I can't believe I'm going to say this, but after seeing several interviews and other interactions, Gase might just be an even more ornery coach to deal with than... Bill Belichick.

Lol very true, all the PITA difficulties without any of the payoffs. Can't believe he not only got brought in, but given a 4 year contract. I'm sure there are some easy outs for them, but why.

This is based on nothing more than my own crazy hopes and fantasies, but after GB stuck it to Rodgers with their draft (and seeing Mims go to the Jets knowing I would be taking him with one of my many 2nd round rookie picks regardless); I thought how amazing it could be if Rodgers once again followed in Favre's footsteps and wound up going to the Jets after leaving GB. Darnold could easily be running out of rope right about that time. Would definitely be a boon for Mims value.

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

Looking at ADP from this time last year, I'm sure that you could get the following guys for less than what they cost last year (a few for significantly less).

1.04 Harry (12 rookies going ahead of him in startup ADP)
1.06 Henderson (behind 27 rookies in ADP)
1.08 Campbell (behind 28)
1.10 Harris
1.12 Arcega-Whiteside
2.04 Hill
2.06 Isabella
2.09 Boykin
2.11 Butler
2.12 Thompson

From Harris on, they're not even in the ADP data I'm looking at, so they're behind at least 29 rookies. That's nearly half of the first two rounds of rookie picks going for multiple rounds less in value just a year later.

Half those guys were NFL day 1 or 2 picks too.

You're missing the point of what he's saying. He's not talking about startups. He's talking about an active league with an owner who has drafted that player. He's saying most owners won't trade away a guy like Harry, for half of what they spent on him a year later, basically. From my experience, that is true. A start up is completely different. It's apples and oranges.

Good ole sunk cost fallacy

I'm not missing the point and I definitely understand sunk cost fallacy (I fall into it myself). I included startup ADP because it's the only really value perception data point. The "discount" might not be the same in an existing league, but even considering the sunk costs, I'm sure most of these guys could be had for at least a half round discount.

Somebody that drafted Harry early last year wouldn't trade him for Jeudy or Lamb (both often available in the back half of the first)? Campbell and JJAW owners aren't letting them go for Aiyuk or Edwards? Henderson or Harris for Gibson or Dillon?

[ericanadian]

You're missing the point of what he's saying. He's not talking about startups. He's talking about an active league with an owner who has drafted that player. He's saying most owners won't trade away a guy like Harry, for half of what they spent on him a year later, basically. From my experience, that is true. A start up is completely different. It's apples and oranges.

Good ole sunk cost fallacy

I'm not missing the point and I definitely understand sunk cost fallacy (I fall into it myself). I included startup ADP because it's the only really value perception data point. The "discount" might not be the same in an existing league, but even considering the sunk costs, I'm sure most of these guys could be had for at least a half round discount.

Somebody that drafted Harry early last year wouldn't trade him for Jeudy or Lamb (both often available in the back half of the first)? Campbell and JJAW owners aren't letting them go for Aiyuk or Edwards? Henderson or Harris for Gibson or Dillon?

Sure, but part of that is just the superior depth of talent in the 2020 draft relative to the 2019 draft.

[dustyroads]

You're missing the point of what he's saying. He's not talking about startups. He's talking about an active league with an owner who has drafted that player. He's saying most owners won't trade away a guy like Harry, for half of what they spent on him a year later, basically. From my experience, that is true. A start up is completely different. It's apples and oranges.

Good ole sunk cost fallacy

I'm not missing the point and I definitely understand sunk cost fallacy (I fall into it myself). I included startup ADP because it's the only really value perception data point. The "discount" might not be the same in an existing league, but even considering the sunk costs, I'm sure most of these guys could be had for at least a half round discount.

Somebody that drafted Harry early last year wouldn't trade him for Jeudy or Lamb (both often available in the back half of the first)? Campbell and JJAW owners aren't letting them go for Aiyuk or Edwards? Henderson or Harris for Gibson or Dillon?

Lamb and Jeudy are firmly planted in the middle of the 1st round in the majority of drafts, and while you picked a scenario that fits your premise: 1. I don't think a few draft slots are what most people are saying when they talk about "buying at a discount next season" and 2. That scenario will never happen in the opposite direction so it's really a moot point. No one would be trading a mid-1st in the 2020 draft for N'Keal Harry. So yes, obviously the Harry owner would accept, problem is, it would never be offered.

We can agree to disagree, and I don't really feel like talking about one off/1% chance scenarios. My original point stands that in general when considering taking a rookie, if you pass on him in the current draft; you will not be able to simply wait one year and trade a pick from a later round to get him because he "didn't perform". I've never seen in happen in any of my leagues, and rarely seen it ever shown to happen on any msg boards or threads outside of a very rare one that's normally along the lines of "can you believe I pulled this off!!" followed by many comments indicating they robbed somebody who didn't know what they were doing. There were people bragging about how Devante Parker finally paid off for them this year after drafting him in 2015 lol. People are not quick to let go, especially of a player they drafted themselves, especially after only 1 year of owning them, especially at a loss to what they originally paid, especially for a draft pick that outside the 1st round will be another dart throw and who knows what players will even be on the board when they make that pick.

[CGW]

While good owners don't bail on assets early, it definitely does happen. I've seen it several times over the past couple years. Even this past year, the guy who ended up winning my league dropped chark preseason to make room for our rookie draft. Looks brilliant now for the guy who claimed him for close to nothing.

Isabella is another I've seen dropped or traded for close to nothing.

So no, thinking mims might be worth less after 2020 isn't a crazy concept. If someone in your league drafted him without conviction, it could easily happen.

I usually see these in 2nd round or below targets, rather than top tier 1st round guys like Harry.

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

.double post

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

Good ole sunk cost fallacy

I'm not missing the point and I definitely understand sunk cost fallacy (I fall into it myself). I included startup ADP because it's the only really value perception data point. The "discount" might not be the same in an existing league, but even considering the sunk costs, I'm sure most of these guys could be had for at least a half round discount.

Somebody that drafted Harry early last year wouldn't trade him for Jeudy or Lamb (both often available in the back half of the first)? Campbell and JJAW owners aren't letting them go for Aiyuk or Edwards? Henderson or Harris for Gibson or Dillon?

Lamb and Jeudy are firmly planted in the middle of the 1st round in the majority of drafts, and while you picked a scenario that fits your premise: 1. I don't think a few draft slots are what most people are saying when they talk about "buying at a discount next season" and 2. That scenario will never happen in the opposite direction so it's really a moot point. No one would be trading a mid-1st in the 2020 draft for N'Keal Harry. So yes, obviously the Harry owner would accept, problem is, it would never be offered.

We can agree to disagree, and I don't really feel like talking about one off/1% chance scenarios. My original point stands that in general when considering taking a rookie, if you pass on him in the current draft; you will not be able to simply wait one year and trade a pick from a later round to get him because he "didn't perform". I've never seen in happen in any of my leagues, and rarely seen it ever shown to happen on any msg boards or threads outside of a very rare one that's normally along the lines of "can you believe I pulled this off!!" followed by many comments indicating they robbed somebody who didn't know what they were doing. There were people bragging about how Devante Parker finally paid off for them this year after drafting him in 2015 lol. People are not quick to let go, especially of a player they drafted themselves, especially after only 1 year of owning them, especially at a loss to what they originally paid, especially for a draft pick that outside the 1st round will be another dart throw and who knows what players will even be on the board when they make that pick.

1% scenarios? I'm sure that many people would trade Harry away for the subject of this thread as well (Mims is currently 2.02 by ADP). I'd say that a round drop in value from early first to early second is fairly significant. And as I've already pointed out, 40% of last year's rookie class (first two rounds) can easily be had for much cheaper than last year, but okay...

Conversely, If they do hit this year, though, obviously the value jumps immensely.

[FantasyFreak]

So much for a quick start. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. Ugh.

[DLF3000]

So much for a quick start. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. Ugh.

There's going to be a million hammies (and worse) at the start of this bizarre year, so while it sucks overall, I'm not concerned dynasty-wise. I was already redshirting the guy this year because the Jets are terrible top to bottom.

Now if Mims was on an average or better team and equally expected to do something, anything (like he is within the Jets' hilariously embarrassing receiving corps), I'd be more concerned.

So yeah, here's to Mims in 2021+!

[Chwf3rd]

Feel bad for everyone who wasted a early 2nd round pick on this guy in a great draft class and missed out on some combination of:
Aiyuk
Higgins
Shenault
Edwards
Hamler
AJD
Gibson
Jordan Love (SF/2QB)

[StripesOfKC]

Feel bad for everyone who wasted a early 2nd round pick on this guy in a great draft class and missed out on some combination of:
Aiyuk
Higgins
Shenault
Edwards
Hamler
AJD
Gibson
Jordan Love (SF/2QB)

Lol I’d still take him over Aiyuk, Hamler and probably Shenault

[FantasyFreak]

Feel bad for everyone who wasted a early 2nd round pick on this guy in a great draft class and missed out on some combination of:
Aiyuk
Higgins
Shenault
Edwards
Hamler
AJD
Gibson
Jordan Love (SF/2QB)

Lol I’d still take him over Aiyuk, Hamler and probably Shenault

Yeah, the guy misses a few practices and now he's a bust, I guess. I still prefer him over Aiyuk, Higgins, Shenault, Hamler, AJD, Gibson and Love off that list. Edwards is the only guy I'd consider, and that's because he went to the Raiders. Nothing has changed in the way I have ranked players, unless they suffered a season ending type injury. It's dynasty, and they've had a few practices.

BTW, supposedly it's not serious, and they are being cautious. He should be back soon, within a few days.

[Cameron Giles]

Feel bad for everyone who wasted a early 2nd round pick on this guy in a great draft class and missed out on some combination of:
Aiyuk
Higgins
Shenault
Edwards
Hamler
AJD
Gibson
Jordan Love (SF/2QB)

Because of a hamstring injury?

[Chwf3rd]

Feel bad for everyone who wasted a early 2nd round pick on this guy in a great draft class and missed out on some combination of:
Aiyuk
Higgins
Shenault
Edwards
Hamler
AJD
Gibson
Jordan Love (SF/2QB)

Because of a hamstring injury?

He wasn't very good before the hamstring injury