Derrick Henry Thread - Is he still King Henry post injury?

[thebeast]

Pop goes the Darryton Evans bubble

Right cause Kamara couldn't thrive behind Ingram. Hunt and Chubb? Gordon and Ekeler? List goes on and on. If the talent is there he'll be fine.

People invested in him with the idea that Henry would not be resigned long term and that he would have the chance to step into a 3 down role so even if he did share some time that wasn’t the expectation for the next 4 years or the term of his rookie deal. Additionally, all the guys you mentioned were first round talents. I think the good news is that he probably only cost most a mid to late 2nd so not a huge hit to anyone, but there was a lot of hype around him that was based more on situation than on talent.

[dynastyninja]

It's weird that they were "not expected" to reach a deal and then reached a deal the next day, but that's probably just Henry's agent posturing or something.

Deal makes a lot of sense for both sides. Henry doesn't have to fight the market and TEN gets to lock in their running game for a reasonable amount of money.

[ericanadian]

I find that a stretch, considering the level of targets the RB's got last year (63). I think the next 2 years, they have a blueprint. They may not be leading games as often, but have to think Henry is still part of the plan even if they are trailing, unless it's blowout, in the 4th quarter. Honestly looks like more of the same for 2 years barring injury. A steady dose of DH, play action pass, and a low volume pass offence, with AJB being the only guy I'd be comfortable having due to his big play ability. Even next year, with Henry still under contract, getting 50-60 targets for Evans will be a stretch, IMO. That's literally what their entire RB room had this year. I think that's the ceiling of his targets in the next 2 years, barring a major offensive shift.

I am going to disagree in part.

The Titans defense lost Jurrell Casey and looks to have a major hole in the pass rush.
They lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees to retirement

IMO the defense is due for a small step back and creating more neutral game scripts and passing volume

Beyond that there's a more obvious reason for the Titans to throw more: they came up short because they kept riding Henry when it wasn't working and saw that they need to throw more to win a Super Bowl

Last year Tennessee was 31st with 448 passing attempts.
For next year I think I can safely add about 35-40 passing attempts--only enough to bump them to 28th in passing attempts but when added to 103 vacated targets--I think it is enough to give AJB the volume to rise to low WR1 territory and make up for the slight regression in efficiency coming for him and to support one more pass catcher--whether that be Jonnu or Evans (Humphries and CD will take their share but at this point Davis is locked into mid to low WR3 territory and neither has the potential to be a difference maker as long as they are on the Titans

I don't think it's a major offensive shift--just a realization that you can't win big time on the back of one RB, even if he is your identity--which he will still be for the next two years

We'll see. I think the Titans got to an AFC title game with a very clear philosophy, and they will be trying their best to replicate it. They aren't going to go out of their way to change things unless they are losing, and as I said, if the game is within reach in the 4th, DH is still going to be factoring in, as he can flourish in that quarter with a D who has had to tackle him all game.

Now your assessment isn't far fetched at all. I agree they may have to throw more, but to give one RB a projected 50-60 targets in a year or two when the entire RB room had 63 last year, with no clear change in philosophy seems high to me.

Dion Lewis had 67 targets in 2018. Lewis was on pace for 40 targets at the halfway point of the season before the team tapped out on him. I could easily see Evans getting to 40 targets this year by just not being awful and if he’s got talent, I don’t think another 10-20 targets are out of line. Arthur Smith is coming off his first year as a coordinator, so I don’t think he’s really established his offensive philosophy in the level of detail where the targets for a specific role on the team is defined.

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

Just dished off my Evans share & I traded up to get him too (something I never do), ouch.
Even if Henry goes down, it's clear they don't view Evans as a reliable workhorse after this extension. He's cancelled.

[davidxhorn]

This really is basically a 2 year deal. This should affect Cook negotiations, too. I'd say this becomes Cook's ceiling, with Henry being the reigning rushing leader. I'd expect Cook to get between 11-12 million or so, if they get a deal done.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-t ... nry-18994/

I think this is the relevant point here - I am not sure Derrick Henry's new contract was ever in question, and it has far more peripheral importance with other players. Cook was exactly who I was thinking of as well. In general, Henry's contract is a win for RBs. He was the rushing leader last year, his arrow is flat at the very least (if not pointing up), and he didn't necessarily break the bank. I think teams were left with a very sour taste looking at Bell, CMC, Gurley, etc. contracts, and being able to reset the bar to roughly 10 mil a year for above average and good backs makes future deals more likely and easily palatable. I mean, we're talking a concrete example of a top RB getting 5-7 mill a year less than previous top RBs.

Cook, however, will not be pleased with this. Very similar to the Gordon situation last year. His reasonable asking price just dropped by a few million a year because he can't compete with "leading rusher, never injured, hella carries".

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

This really is basically a 2 year deal. This should affect Cook negotiations, too. I'd say this becomes Cook's ceiling, with Henry being the reigning rushing leader. I'd expect Cook to get between 11-12 million or so, if they get a deal done.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-t ... nry-18994/

I was waiting for this info to be released.

Seems like best-case scenario for Henry, although I think the run game takes a hit without Conklin.

On a related note, Tannehill

That seems like a pretty solid deal for TN. They really only tied themselves up for another year after the franchise. I think 2 years at the franchise level makes a lot of sense to keep Henry, especially considering he's a fan favorite. I expect Henry could have gotten at least 15M guaranteed in a year if he played out the season, so I don't see it as a no-brainer for him.

This is definitely a plus for Henry's dynasty value. The threat of a 27 FA RB after 1 season is not great for dynasty value, especially for a guy like Henryvwho needs the right fit to really be effective. This pretty much locks him into a role that's perfect for him for 2-3 years.

[Space Cowboy]

Good deal for both ends, surprised TEN paid up though.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

For July 2020 Mizelle ADP data, Henry is currently the 12th RB off the board. I have to think this moves him up a bit.

[OhCruelestRanter]

For July 2020 Mizelle ADP data, Henry is currently the 12th RB off the board. I have to think this moves him up a bit.

Over who? It’s a positive for Henry, but it doesn’t change his age, heavy mileage, and limited passing game role. If you valued Taylor/Helaire over him before this, I doubt it changes now. Same for Jacobs and Sanders. Maybe you can move him ahead of Chubb? I get the case for it, but I probably wouldn’t do it. I don’t see him passing Cook/Mixon/Kamara, and I assume CMC, Barkley, and Zeke are out of the question.

Maybe this widens the gap between Henry and the Jones/Fournette/Drake/Ekeler tier of vets and the Dobbins/Swift/Akers tier of rookies.

[Ice]

Good deal for both ends, surprised TEN paid up though.

Agree although the Titans didn’t really go crazy.

The RB Market is pretty set. The studs get 15 or so and the very good 11-12 million. Henry falls into the very good category.

Pretty disposable position by NFL standards for the majority of RB’s. At Least Henry is above the disposable category.

[Pullo Vision]

Derrick Henry a hard sell? https://www.si.com/fantasy/2021/01/28/1 ... facts-2020

Derrick Henry became the eighth running back to ever rush for 2,000-plus yards in a single season. His 2,027 yards on the ground is the fifth-most ever recorded, and his 333.1 fantasy points ranked him third among all running backs.

31. All seven running backs who previously rushed for over 2,000 yards experienced no less than a 562-yard decline in rushing yards, no less than a 578-yard decline in scrimmage yards, and no less than a 99.4-point decline in points the following year.

32. The average decline in rushing yards among the previous seven 2,000-yarders who played at least 12 games is 807, and the average decline in fantasy points is an eye-popping 120.6.

[KingsKing]

Derrick Henry a hard sell? https://www.si.com/fantasy/2021/01/28/1 ... facts-2020

Derrick Henry became the eighth running back to ever rush for 2,000-plus yards in a single season. His 2,027 yards on the ground is the fifth-most ever recorded, and his 333.1 fantasy points ranked him third among all running backs.

31. All seven running backs who previously rushed for over 2,000 yards experienced no less than a 562-yard decline in rushing yards, no less than a 578-yard decline in scrimmage yards, and no less than a 99.4-point decline in points the following year.

32. The average decline in rushing yards among the previous seven 2,000-yarders who played at least 12 games is 807, and the average decline in fantasy points is an eye-popping 120.6.

Not for me , as a contender I’m gonna ride him into the ground. His career carries are still on the low side and barring injury I think he has 2 rb1 seasons left in him.

[Bronco Billy]

Derrick Henry a hard sell? https://www.si.com/fantasy/2021/01/28/1 ... facts-2020

Derrick Henry became the eighth running back to ever rush for 2,000-plus yards in a single season. His 2,027 yards on the ground is the fifth-most ever recorded, and his 333.1 fantasy points ranked him third among all running backs.

31. All seven running backs who previously rushed for over 2,000 yards experienced no less than a 562-yard decline in rushing yards, no less than a 578-yard decline in scrimmage yards, and no less than a 99.4-point decline in points the following year.

32. The average decline in rushing yards among the previous seven 2,000-yarders who played at least 12 games is 807, and the average decline in fantasy points is an eye-popping 120.6.

On top of that, only 2 of them regained their form 2 years later. Dickerson and Simpson both went over 1800 yds the year after dipping the year following their 2000 yd season. Peterson and Davis were non-factors 2 years after with injuries. Sanders retired 2 years after. Lewis and Johnson had even worse seasons than the season after where they declined post-2000 yds.

If you believe in history being repetitive. Henry is absolutely a sell high candidate.

[krtbuckeye]

Derrick Henry a hard sell? https://www.si.com/fantasy/2021/01/28/1 ... facts-2020

Derrick Henry became the eighth running back to ever rush for 2,000-plus yards in a single season. His 2,027 yards on the ground is the fifth-most ever recorded, and his 333.1 fantasy points ranked him third among all running backs.

31. All seven running backs who previously rushed for over 2,000 yards experienced no less than a 562-yard decline in rushing yards, no less than a 578-yard decline in scrimmage yards, and no less than a 99.4-point decline in points the following year.

32. The average decline in rushing yards among the previous seven 2,000-yarders who played at least 12 games is 807, and the average decline in fantasy points is an eye-popping 120.6.

All the reason more reason to move him too early vs too late. I cashed out for Swift straight up and got the same feeling I get when I eat my kid's good Halloween candy.

[nathanq42]

Derrick Henry a hard sell? https://www.si.com/fantasy/2021/01/28/1 ... facts-2020

Derrick Henry became the eighth running back to ever rush for 2,000-plus yards in a single season. His 2,027 yards on the ground is the fifth-most ever recorded, and his 333.1 fantasy points ranked him third among all running backs.

31. All seven running backs who previously rushed for over 2,000 yards experienced no less than a 562-yard decline in rushing yards, no less than a 578-yard decline in scrimmage yards, and no less than a 99.4-point decline in points the following year.

32. The average decline in rushing yards among the previous seven 2,000-yarders who played at least 12 games is 807, and the average decline in fantasy points is an eye-popping 120.6.

On top of that, only 2 of them regained their form 2 years later. Dickerson and Simpson both went over 1800 yds the year after dipping the year following their 2000 yd season. Peterson and Davis were non-factors 2 years after with injuries. Sanders retired 2 years after. Lewis and Johnson had even worse seasons than the season after where they declined post-2000 yds.

If you believe in history being repetitive. Henry is absolutely a sell high candidate.

Still a small sample size, but I understand the sentiment. The problem is that henry is utterly disrespected, and will not garner what you would expect of a guy the just ran for 2k+