WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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sammyz
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby sammyz » Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:39 am

Clearly if he'd been an absolute dominant talent and transcended the difficulties it would be a mark in his favor, but I look at Reagor and see a tremendously difficult situation for his rookie year. Injured coming into the season when there was already precious little time for preparation and learning the game, injured early into the season and missing like 6 weeks and having a surgery, playing behind a severely depleted O-line, with a lot of other receiving threats around and well...Carson Wentz. I haven't looked at his actual splits after Hurts took over and he definitely had a couple "meh" games in there but next year is going to look sooooo different for this kid I have a tough time seeing him not make a huge jump.

Of course the model could be highlighting that the failure of most WRs in this tier to do so is indicative of a player's need to transcend such difficulties. I'm very interested in how next season shakes out. I took him at 1.10 and would probably hold for even value right now but I'd sell if I got anything higher.
QBs: Dak Prescott, Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston, Jalen Hurts, Andy Dalton
RBS: CMC, Miles Sanders, Gurley, JK Dobbins, AJ Dillon, Lamical Perine, Ito Smith
WRS: Godwin, DJ Moore, Juju, Keenan Allen, Diggs, McLaurin, Dionte Johnson, Jalen Reagor, Bryan Edwards, Brandon Aiyuk, Tim Patrick
TEs: Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith
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Pac_Eddy
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:02 am

sammyz wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:39 am
Clearly if he'd been an absolute dominant talent and transcended the difficulties it would be a mark in his favor, but I look at Reagor and see a tremendously difficult situation for his rookie year. Injured coming into the season when there was already precious little time for preparation and learning the game, injured early into the season and missing like 6 weeks and having a surgery, playing behind a severely depleted O-line, with a lot of other receiving threats around and well...Carson Wentz. I haven't looked at his actual splits after Hurts took over and he definitely had a couple "meh" games in there but next year is going to look sooooo different for this kid I have a tough time seeing him not make a huge jump.

Of course the model could be highlighting that the failure of most WRs in this tier to do so is indicative of a player's need to transcend such difficulties. I'm very interested in how next season shakes out. I took him at 1.10 and would probably hold for even value right now but I'd sell if I got anything higher.
I definitely wouldn't be selling Reagor right now. His value is depressed and has more room to go up than down. I think the odds of him being a solid fantasy starter are low, but you've got to hold.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:06 am

Reagors season reminds me of Davis rookie year with the injury and QB changes
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Dillon, Gaskin, Mostert, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Mariota, Trub
RB: Saquon, Dobbins, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, Snell
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, G. Davis, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Irv, Gesicki, Tonyan
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:13 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:06 am
Reagors season reminds me of Davis rookie year with the injury and QB changes
Expecting the classic 4th year breakout for Reagor as well, or more of a 5th year breakout guy like Parker?

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:36 pm

CGW wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:13 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:06 am
Reagors season reminds me of Davis rookie year with the injury and QB changes
Expecting the classic 4th year breakout for Reagor as well, or more of a 5th year breakout guy like Parker?
Hahaha I know you're joking, but expecting that for anyone is tricky. That being said, I did believe in Davis for the most part (2nd year was good, had flashes through his other years), as I did with Parker until after his 4th year lol

They both flashed at times. Reagor will have to show a bit more before I keep holding on to hope for him
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Dillon, Gaskin, Mostert, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Mariota, Trub
RB: Saquon, Dobbins, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, Snell
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, G. Davis, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Irv, Gesicki, Tonyan
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:31 pm

I was listening to UTH podcast and they had someone on who said pff grades of rookie wrs seemed to correlate nicely with success. I’m wondering if anyone has access to Pff grades of the rookies and I’d put them alongside the players, ideally rookie pff grades from 2016-now (or even further back if you are motivated) and we could see if there’s any correlation between those who didn’t fire and those who did.

So for example, maybe someone with 47+ ypg as a rookie had a low pff grade and they didn’t fire. Or the inverse in which a rookie had a low rookie ypg but a high pff grade and they did break out later.

I may have to purchase the subscription myself unless one of you has it.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:32 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:31 pm
I was listening to UTH podcast and they had someone on who said rookie pff grades seemed to correlate nicely with success. I’m wondering if anyone has access to Pff grades of the rookies and I’d put them alongside the players, ideally rookie pff grades from 2016-now and we could see if there’s any correlation between those who didn’t fire and those who did.

So for example, maybe someone with 47+ ypg as a rookie had a low pff grade and they didn’t fire. Or the inverse in which a rookie had a low rookie ypg but a high pff grade and they did break out later.

I may have to purchase the subscription myself unless one of you has it.
I have the grades

give me a second
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Watson | Cousins
RB: Henderson | Gibson | Edmonds | Cohen | Smith | Snell
WR: AJ Brown | Fulgham | Harry | Watkins | Renfrow | Shenault | Claypool | Coutee | C. Johnson
TE: Henry | Parham

Taxi: Dillon | T. Johnson | Cephus

2021: 1.01, 1.08, 1.10, 1.12 | 2.01, 2.11
2022: 4x 1st | 1x 2nd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

12 Team PPR SuperFlex

QB: Watson | Jackson | Garoppolo | Mullens
RB: Jones | Gibson | Swift | Penny | Cohen | Smith | Wilson |
WR: AJ Brown | Jeudy | Shenault | Coutee | Cooks | M. Jones | Chark| Fulgham
TE: Schultz

Taxi: Trautman | Cephus

2021: 2.06 | 3.06
2022: 1x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:34 pm

SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:32 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:31 pm
I was listening to UTH podcast and they had someone on who said rookie pff grades seemed to correlate nicely with success. I’m wondering if anyone has access to Pff grades of the rookies and I’d put them alongside the players, ideally rookie pff grades from 2016-now and we could see if there’s any correlation between those who didn’t fire and those who did.

So for example, maybe someone with 47+ ypg as a rookie had a low pff grade and they didn’t fire. Or the inverse in which a rookie had a low rookie ypg but a high pff grade and they did break out later.

I may have to purchase the subscription myself unless one of you has it.
I have the grades

give me a second
Ooh thanks :pray:

As far back as you can, if possible. Many thanks

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:44 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:31 pm
I was listening to UTH podcast and they had someone on who said pff grades of rookies seemed to correlate nicely with success. I’m wondering if anyone has access to Pff grades of the rookies and I’d put them alongside the players, ideally rookie pff grades from 2016-now (or even further back if you are motivated) and we could see if there’s any correlation between those who didn’t fire and those who did.

So for example, maybe someone with 47+ ypg as a rookie had a low pff grade and they didn’t fire. Or the inverse in which a rookie had a low rookie ypg but a high pff grade and they did break out later.

I may have to purchase the subscription myself unless one of you has it.
2016:
M. Thomas: 86.3
T. Hill: 80.6
Malcolm Mitchell: 66.7
Sterling Shepard: 66.4
Tyler Boyd: 64.4
W. Fuller: 63.4
C. Coleman: 61.9
T. Sharpe: 60.4
C. Peake: 57.7
R. Anderson: 56.4

2017:
C. Godwin: 80.4
C. Kupp: 78.5
J. Smith-Schuster: 77.6
K. Cole: 70.3
K. Golladay: 68.1
T. Taylor: 66.6
C. Davis: 61.5
Z. Jones: 52.9

2018:
D. Moore: 73.7
R. Foster: 73.3
C. Ridley: 70.5
C. Kirk: 70.1
D. Pettis: 69.8
Tre. Smith: 68.5
K. Coutee: 65.1
E. St. Brown: 63.8
A. Callaway: 63.1
C. Sutton: 62.1
MVS: 62.1
A. Miller: 61.6
D. Hamilton: 60.4
M. Gallup: 60
J. Washington: 50.5

2019:
T. McLaurin: 86.5
A. Brown: 83
H. Renfrow: 76.5
D. Samuel: 72.8
M. Brown: 70.6
D. Slayton: 70.53
M. Hardman: 69.6
P. Williams: 69.4
D. Metcalf: 69.4 (73.2) (Playoffs)
Dion. Johnson: 68.8
J. Meyers: 67
Olas. Johnson: 64.87
S. Sims: 64.7
K. Harmon: 64.6
Kee. Johnson: 53.4

2020:
J. Jefferson: 90.5
B. Aiyuk: 80.8
T. Higgins: 79

C. Claypool: 76.1
C. Lamb: 72.6
L. Shenault: 71.8
D. Mims: 70.4
D. Mooney: 67.3
G. Davis: 66.4
Q. Cephus: 66
L. Bowden: 65.1
J. Jeudy: 64.8
J. Reagor: 64.2
M. Pittman: 62.6
I. Wright: 59
H. Ruggs: 55.6
K. Hamler: 55.4
Last edited by SStory93 on Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Watson | Cousins
RB: Henderson | Gibson | Edmonds | Cohen | Smith | Snell
WR: AJ Brown | Fulgham | Harry | Watkins | Renfrow | Shenault | Claypool | Coutee | C. Johnson
TE: Henry | Parham

Taxi: Dillon | T. Johnson | Cephus

2021: 1.01, 1.08, 1.10, 1.12 | 2.01, 2.11
2022: 4x 1st | 1x 2nd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

12 Team PPR SuperFlex

QB: Watson | Jackson | Garoppolo | Mullens
RB: Jones | Gibson | Swift | Penny | Cohen | Smith | Wilson |
WR: AJ Brown | Jeudy | Shenault | Coutee | Cooks | M. Jones | Chark| Fulgham
TE: Schultz

Taxi: Trautman | Cephus

2021: 2.06 | 3.06
2022: 1x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

SStory93
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:44 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:34 pm
SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:32 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:31 pm
I was listening to UTH podcast and they had someone on who said rookie pff grades seemed to correlate nicely with success. I’m wondering if anyone has access to Pff grades of the rookies and I’d put them alongside the players, ideally rookie pff grades from 2016-now and we could see if there’s any correlation between those who didn’t fire and those who did.

So for example, maybe someone with 47+ ypg as a rookie had a low pff grade and they didn’t fire. Or the inverse in which a rookie had a low rookie ypg but a high pff grade and they did break out later.

I may have to purchase the subscription myself unless one of you has it.
I have the grades

give me a second
Ooh thanks :pray:

As far back as you can, if possible. Many thanks
I can go back till the beginning of PFF.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Watson | Cousins
RB: Henderson | Gibson | Edmonds | Cohen | Smith | Snell
WR: AJ Brown | Fulgham | Harry | Watkins | Renfrow | Shenault | Claypool | Coutee | C. Johnson
TE: Henry | Parham

Taxi: Dillon | T. Johnson | Cephus

2021: 1.01, 1.08, 1.10, 1.12 | 2.01, 2.11
2022: 4x 1st | 1x 2nd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

12 Team PPR SuperFlex

QB: Watson | Jackson | Garoppolo | Mullens
RB: Jones | Gibson | Swift | Penny | Cohen | Smith | Wilson |
WR: AJ Brown | Jeudy | Shenault | Coutee | Cooks | M. Jones | Chark| Fulgham
TE: Schultz

Taxi: Trautman | Cephus

2021: 2.06 | 3.06
2022: 1x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby JJRules » Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:59 pm

SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:44 pm
...PFF scores...
:clap: :clap: :clap:
10-team non-PPR, Superflex, 16-man rosters, pseudo-dynasty
Keep any number of players (0-16), lose same number of draft picks
2010, 2015, 2020 - 🏆, 2013 - 🥈

QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, SF, FLEX, D/ST

QB: Watson, Murray
RB: Cook, Kamara, Robinson, Dobbins, Dillon
WR: Adams, AJB, McLaurin, Higgins, Shenault, Mims
TE: Hockenson, Goedert
D/ST: BAL

SStory93
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:00 pm

JJRules wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:59 pm
SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:44 pm
...PFF scores...
:clap: :clap: :clap:
HAHA thanks, that is until my subscription gets canceled since I share this lol.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Watson | Cousins
RB: Henderson | Gibson | Edmonds | Cohen | Smith | Snell
WR: AJ Brown | Fulgham | Harry | Watkins | Renfrow | Shenault | Claypool | Coutee | C. Johnson
TE: Henry | Parham

Taxi: Dillon | T. Johnson | Cephus

2021: 1.01, 1.08, 1.10, 1.12 | 2.01, 2.11
2022: 4x 1st | 1x 2nd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

12 Team PPR SuperFlex

QB: Watson | Jackson | Garoppolo | Mullens
RB: Jones | Gibson | Swift | Penny | Cohen | Smith | Wilson |
WR: AJ Brown | Jeudy | Shenault | Coutee | Cooks | M. Jones | Chark| Fulgham
TE: Schultz

Taxi: Trautman | Cephus

2021: 2.06 | 3.06
2022: 1x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:03 pm

SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:44 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:34 pm
SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:32 pm


I have the grades

give me a second
Ooh thanks :pray:

As far back as you can, if possible. Many thanks
I can go back till the beginning of PFF.
That would be great, thanks. If you want you can just PM them if you don't want to get in "trouble". I'm planning on making a new thread since this is cluttered and i'll include the PFF scores in that one. You can delete the previously posted ones if you want, i saved them in a word document.

Tyreek Hill having a low YPG but a high PFF score is exactly what I was hoping to find. Have to see if it's just a one-off or a trend.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Sriracha
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:03 pm

SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:00 pm
JJRules wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:59 pm
SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:44 pm
...PFF scores...
:clap: :clap: :clap:
HAHA thanks, that is until my subscription gets canceled since I share this lol.
So Lamb overrated, Shenault and Mims underrated; I hate that PFF's grades match my assessment on these guys.

SStory93
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:07 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:03 pm
SStory93 wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:00 pm
JJRules wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:59 pm


:clap: :clap: :clap:
HAHA thanks, that is until my subscription gets canceled since I share this lol.
So Lamb overrated, Shenault and Mims underrated; I hate that PFF's grades match my assessment on these guys.
Not so much on Lamb being overrated. A quick synopsis and its clear that most WR that are above a 75 grade are gonna be top 24 WR in fantasy for a while. Based off this data.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Watson | Cousins
RB: Henderson | Gibson | Edmonds | Cohen | Smith | Snell
WR: AJ Brown | Fulgham | Harry | Watkins | Renfrow | Shenault | Claypool | Coutee | C. Johnson
TE: Henry | Parham

Taxi: Dillon | T. Johnson | Cephus

2021: 1.01, 1.08, 1.10, 1.12 | 2.01, 2.11
2022: 4x 1st | 1x 2nd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd

12 Team PPR SuperFlex

QB: Watson | Jackson | Garoppolo | Mullens
RB: Jones | Gibson | Swift | Penny | Cohen | Smith | Wilson |
WR: AJ Brown | Jeudy | Shenault | Coutee | Cooks | M. Jones | Chark| Fulgham
TE: Schultz

Taxi: Trautman | Cephus

2021: 2.06 | 3.06
2022: 1x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd
2023: 3x 1st | 1x 2nd | 1x 3rd


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