WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Blueboy » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:17 pm

I get why it has to be this way, but it's so funny to see Davante Adams not in the "Stud" group.

12-team SF, PPR, IDP
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Wilson, Brees, Minshew, Winston, Rosen
RB: J. Taylor, CEH, Ingram, Dillon, Penny, Henderson
WR: Metcalf, Woods, AJG, Kirk, Hardman, Isabella, Campbell, Hamler, JJAW
TE: Andrews, Njoku, Asiasi, Moreau, Trautman

DL: J. Bosa, JJ Watt, J. Allen, Ferrell, Epinesa, Houston
LB: T. Edmunds, Kendricks, Mosley, T. Lewis, A. Williamson
DB: J. Adams, K. Neal, Amos, McDougald, Thornhill

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Mjvb5 » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:26 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:17 pm
I get why it has to be this way, but it's so funny to see Davante Adams not in the "Stud" group.
I feel like he screws up so many of these stats thatre based on yardage, targets, or receptions in the year lol.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:48 pm

I just want to thank everyone who has gone along for the ride with this, it's been pretty fun discussions here.


Update for week 10


67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% stud
Justin Jefferson [85]
Tee Higgins [67]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
47% stud
75% good
CeeDee Lamb [66]
Jerry Jeudy [61]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
28% stud
75% good
Brandon Aiyuk [56]
Chase Claypool [56]
Denzel Mims [49]

--------------------

Less than 47
5-10% stud
19% good
Laviska Shenault [40]
Jalen Reagor [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Henry Ruggs [36]
Darnell Mooney [35]
KJ Hamler [34]
Gabriel Davis [28]
De'Michael Harris [26]
Quintez Cephus [23]
Bryan Edwards [23]
Isaiah Wright [23]


*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = ~3+ seasons of relevant production (relevant production being roughly 800+ receiving yards per year)
*Based on 1995-2015 sample. Minimum of 9 games played.


  • Justin Jefferson would have to absolutely faceplant to not end the year in the elite tier, even if not the 67+ group he's still extremely likely to get the 1k yard mark. I understand it's a small sample size but every athletic player that lands in the top tier has been a "stud."
  • Pittman trending up.

  • Things starting to look dicey for Bryan Edwards although there's still time and no clear alpha in that passing attack, aside from Waller I guess. Agholor faceplanted a bit last week so they could look to get Edwards more involved.
  • The thing with the 50+ or 60+ receptions is not as clear cut as I thought, as efficiency seems to play a big part in the success rate. 45-64 rookie receptions with >45 ypg is very successful whereas <45ypg is not (you can see previous page for the full results). Shenault and Mooney both could hit the reception total but not hit the efficiency.
  • I should mention that being "unathletic" does make you a bit of a question mark even if you do make the 67+ or 1k list. All busts from those lists were relatively unathletic (Michael Clayton and Kelvin Benjamin). Just something to consider when thinking of Tee Higgins. Pro day times and measurements were a bit all over the place and historically you typically want to err on the side of caution and go with the worse times.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby ThunderTung » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:40 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:48 pm
I just want to thank everyone who has gone along for the ride with this, it's been pretty fun discussions here.


Update for week 10


67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% stud
Justin Jefferson [85]
Tee Higgins [67]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
47% stud
75% good
CeeDee Lamb [66]
Jerry Jeudy [61]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
28% stud
75% good
Brandon Aiyuk [56]
Chase Claypool [56]
Denzel Mims [49]

--------------------

Less than 47
5-10% stud
19% good
Laviska Shenault [40]
Jalen Reagor [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Henry Ruggs [36]
Darnell Mooney [35]
KJ Hamler [34]
Gabriel Davis [28]
De'Michael Harris [26]
Quintez Cephus [23]
Bryan Edwards [23]
Isaiah Wright [23]


*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = ~3+ seasons of relevant production (relevant production being roughly 800+ receiving yards per year)
*Based on 1995-2015 sample. Minimum of 9 games played.


  • Justin Jefferson would have to absolutely faceplant to not end the year in the elite tier, even if not the 67+ group he's still extremely likely to get the 1k yard mark. I understand it's a small sample size but every athletic player that lands in the top tier has been a "stud."
  • Pittman trending up.

  • Things starting to look dicey for Bryan Edwards although there's still time and no clear alpha in that passing attack, aside from Waller I guess. Agholor faceplanted a bit last week so they could look to get Edwards more involved.
  • The thing with the 50+ or 60+ receptions is not as clear cut as I thought, as efficiency seems to play a big part in the success rate. 45-64 rookie receptions with >45 ypg is very successful whereas <45ypg is not (you can see previous page for the full results). Shenault and Mooney both could hit the reception total but not hit the efficiency.
  • I should mention that being "unathletic" does make you a bit of a question mark even if you do make the 67+ or 1k list. All busts from those lists were relatively unathletic (Michael Clayton and Kelvin Benjamin). Just something to consider when thinking of Tee Higgins. Pro day times and measurements were a bit all over the place and historically you typically want to err on the side of caution and go with the worse times.
While I disagree heavily with your RB report, I really do love this analysis. Just out of curiosity, maybe I missed it but have you looked into the players that ended up being studs, but had a rough rookie year due to unpredictable circumstances? Like Lamb having to play football with a different QB every week. (asking for a friend) obviously much harder thing to look into as it delves beyond the stat sheet, am curious though
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr
Picks(2021):1.01,1.04,2.01,2.05,2.07
QB(1): Hurts
RB(2): Sanders/Harris
WR(2): Edelman/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Hardman/Kirk
K: Jake Elliot
DL(2): Ngakoue/Hicks
LB(2): Hicks/J. Smith
DB(2) Devin McCourty/Mathieu
FLEX: Murray

Bench:
QB: Mayfield/Foles
RB: Barber/JJ Taylor/Burkhead/Ollison
WR: S. Miller/Sims/Campbell/Robinson/ KJ Hill/Meyers
TE: Gronk/Sternberger/Asiasi/Keene
DL: Dex. Lawrence/Allen
LB: Chubb/Barrett/Whitehead/Bentley/Vigil/Jones
DB: Gilmore/Sorenson

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:13 pm

Hmm well I did look into the receivers who had a lot of receptions but were inefficient. Since 2016 tyreek, Boyd, dionte. Tyreek had Alex smith, Boyd had Dalton, and dionte had whoever was there last year. It’s hard to say whether smith and Dalton made the difference, they weren’t world beaters but they were more or less competent. Diontes situation was probably the worst.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Chwf3rd » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:50 am

Is there an argument that historical WR production isn't that helpful anymore because its become easier for rookies to play WR in the NFL?
Team 1 - 12 team PPR
QB: MRyan, PRivers
RB: AKamara, JMixon, DHenderson, LMcCoy, RArmstead, TPollard
WR: ACooper, SDiggs, CSamuel, AJGreen, SWatkins, AMiller, DiJohnson, ZPascal
TE: MAndrews, ISmith, KWarring
Record: 4-6
Picks: 1, 1, 1

Team 2 - 12 team, PPR, superflex
QB: MStafford, SDarnold, DJones, BRoethlisberger, ALuck
RB: DCook, PLindsay, TColeman, DSingletary, JWhite, DFreeman, CHyde, MWalton, RMostert, MGaskin, QOllison
WR: DAdams, MEvans, SDiggs, DSamuel, SWatkins, MHardman, GAllison
TE: JDoyle, TBurton, DKnox, DFells, KWarring
Record: 6-4
Picks: 1, 2, 2

Team 3 - 12 team, PPR, 2QB, 2TE
QB: DWatson, CWentz, MStafford, DJones, ALuck
RB: NChubb, DMontgomery, SMichel, KDrake, CHyde, TJohnson, MWalton, KBallage, CThompson, JDMcKissic, QOllison
WR: THill, DAdams, SDiggs, DSamuel, PCampbell, DiJohnson, JCrowder, JWashington, ALazard, ATate
TE: GKittle, HHenry, TJHock, KWarring
Record: 8-2
Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:45 am

Chwf3rd wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:50 am
Is there an argument that historical WR production isn't that helpful anymore because its become easier for rookies to play WR in the NFL?
hmm it's possible but i would say we really haven't seen any evidence of that.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:21 pm

Pittman should make another tier leap i believe this week. I could see him getting into that second tier by years end, just too bad we didnt get a full season out of him. I just cant get over this class, its truly phenomenal and to me looks better than the 2014 class and its not close. Its definitely deeper IMO but i still wonder if the 2014 top end guys will be better then the top end of this class.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby failblazer » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:51 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:21 pm
Pittman should make another tier leap i believe this week. I could see him getting into that second tier by years end, just too bad we didnt get a full season out of him. I just cant get over this class, its truly phenomenal and to me looks better than the 2014 class and its not close. Its definitely deeper IMO but i still wonder if the 2014 top end guys will be better then the top end of this class.
Not according to how I have it. He has played in 7 games and amassed 24 catches for 302 yards. That puts in at 43 yards a game. Very much trending upwards though, which I love to see as someone who has a lot of shares in him.
16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - 1 Time Champion)
T. Brady, D. Jones, C. Wentz
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, D. Foreman, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, D. Johnson, D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, D. Knox, C. Kmet

C. Young, S. Hubbard
D. Leonard, D. Greenlaw, T. Reeder, N. Kwiakowski, M. Kiser IR, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, A. Amos

16 Team PPR (8th Year Dynasty - Reigning 3 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, T. Brady, P. Rivers
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry, A. Morris, D. Foreman
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, J. Gordon
Z. Ertz, A. Hooper, J. Sternberger, D. Keene, O. HowardIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, T. Reeder, T. Adams, B. Okereke, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, M. Hyde, K. Dugger, B. McDougaldIR

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:05 am

failblazer wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:51 am
Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:21 pm
Pittman should make another tier leap i believe this week. I could see him getting into that second tier by years end, just too bad we didnt get a full season out of him. I just cant get over this class, its truly phenomenal and to me looks better than the 2014 class and its not close. Its definitely deeper IMO but i still wonder if the 2014 top end guys will be better then the top end of this class.
Not according to how I have it. He has played in 7 games and amassed 24 catches for 302 yards. That puts in at 43 yards a game. Very much trending upwards though, which I love to see as someone who has a lot of shares in him.
I cant math, i was totally just guessing. Well maybe by years end he hits that second tier. If we had a full season out of him he would have probably been in there.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby failblazer » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:56 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:05 am
failblazer wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:51 am
Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:21 pm
Pittman should make another tier leap i believe this week. I could see him getting into that second tier by years end, just too bad we didnt get a full season out of him. I just cant get over this class, its truly phenomenal and to me looks better than the 2014 class and its not close. Its definitely deeper IMO but i still wonder if the 2014 top end guys will be better then the top end of this class.
Not according to how I have it. He has played in 7 games and amassed 24 catches for 302 yards. That puts in at 43 yards a game. Very much trending upwards though, which I love to see as someone who has a lot of shares in him.
I cant math, i was totally just guessing. Well maybe by years end he hits that second tier. If we had a full season out of him he would have probably been in there.
I am just sad/obsessed enough to set up a colour coded spread sheet to extrapolate all of this for me lol
16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - 1 Time Champion)
T. Brady, D. Jones, C. Wentz
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, D. Foreman, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, D. Johnson, D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, D. Knox, C. Kmet

C. Young, S. Hubbard
D. Leonard, D. Greenlaw, T. Reeder, N. Kwiakowski, M. Kiser IR, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, A. Amos

16 Team PPR (8th Year Dynasty - Reigning 3 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, T. Brady, P. Rivers
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry, A. Morris, D. Foreman
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, J. Gordon
Z. Ertz, A. Hooper, J. Sternberger, D. Keene, O. HowardIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, T. Reeder, T. Adams, B. Okereke, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, M. Hyde, K. Dugger, B. McDougaldIR

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby AussieMate » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:14 pm

I'm still holding out hope that Reagor can make the leap, but watching the Eagles play isn't encouraging. Would love to see a strong end to the season for most of these guys as I was a big believer in this WR class, here's to hoping :thumbup:

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:25 pm

Update for week 11


67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% stud
Justin Jefferson [85]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% stud
57-69% good or better
Tee Higgins [63]
CeeDee Lamb [63]
Jerry Jeudy [59]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
31% stud
57-69% good or better
Chase Claypool [56]
Brandon Aiyuk [56]
Denzel Mims [54]

--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% stud
4-22% good or better
Michael Pittman [43]
Jalen Reagor [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Darnell Mooney [35]
KJ Hamler [34]
Henry Ruggs [32]
Gabriel Davis [28]
Tyron Johnson [26]
Quintez Cephus [21]
Isaiah Wright [21]
De'Michael Harris [20]
Bryan Edwards [19]


*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = ~3+ seasons of relevant production (relevant production 3+ seasons of 750+ receiving yards per year)
*Based on 1995-2015 sample. Minimum of 9 games played.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:56 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:08 pm

Ok I updated the hit rate to ignore first year production in terms of qualifying to be a stud or to be "good." Results are more or less the same, slightly lower "good" hit rates but not by much. I had to remove Roy Williams, TB Mike Williams, Jordan Matthews and Percy Harvin from the "good" group. That should be the last adjustment I have to make. I personally checked every qualifying player so everything should be accurate.

You can still see the steep dropoff under 47 ypg, although as I said before we've had a few rookie wr's after 2015 that could bump up the mid-40s hit rate some (Sutton, Golladay, etc). I doubt 47 is some magical number but I do believe there is some sort of important threshold in that area. The stud rate seems to flatline below 47 all the way until 0, whereas the good rate does drop off below 47 but then steadily declines afterwards.

Rookie Yards per Game

1995-2015
9+ Games played
Hit = 3+ 1k yard seasons
Good = 3+ 750+ yard seasons

67+
Stud Rate - 90%
Good or Better - 90%

57-66
Stud Rate - 50%
Good or Better - 57%

47-56
Stud Rate - 31%
Good or Better - 69%

37-46
Stud Rate - 7%
Good or Better - 22%

27-36
Stud Rate - 10%
Good or Better - 19%

17-26
Stud Rate - 10%
Good or Better - 17%

7-16
Stud Rate - 6%
Good or Better - 11%

0-6
Stud Rate - 2%
Good or Better - 4%

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dibbles » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:37 pm

Many thanks again DD for all the crazy hard work on this, one of my favorite posts on the entire site. Most notable event this week IMO has to be Mims making a solid tier jump, if he can finish anywhere in the top 3 tiers in his dumpster fire situation (awful QB, awful coach, early and lengthy injury, and Covid shortened pre season), I think he has to be a clear stand out. I really like what I have seen from him thus far, feels like a worthy overpay candidate to me.


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