WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:09 pm

For DK, was his score a 69 during the regular season and a 73 in the playoffs, or was his total season score bumped up to a 73 when including the playoffs?

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:11 pm

SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:07 pm
Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:03 pm
SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:00 pm

HAHA thanks, that is until my subscription gets canceled since I share this lol.
So Lamb overrated, Shenault and Mims underrated; I hate that PFF's grades match my assessment on these guys.
Not so much on Lamb being overrated. A quick synopsis and its clear that most WR that are above a 75 grade are gonna be top 24 WR in fantasy for a while. Based off this data.
Lamb is currently valued as the 2nd most valuable rookie WR and several tiers above Mims and Shenault as an asset.

Yet he was the 5th highest graded rookie WR, and scored .8 points above Shenault and 2.2 above Mims.

I'm not saying that he's bad, just that people are overvaluing him based on a college profile that was likely inflated by playing his entire career with 2 1.01 QBs and a 2nd round QB.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:13 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:09 pm For DK, was his score a 69 during the regular season and a 73 in the playoffs, or was his total season score bumped up to a 73 when including the playoffs?
It got bumped up tp 73 for the season and playoffs. That is the only WR that I saw a drastic improvement from season end to playoff end with his type of player profile.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:14 pm

SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:07 pm

Not so much on Lamb being overrated. A quick synopsis and its clear that most WR that are above a 75 grade are gonna be top 24 WR in fantasy for a while. Based off this data.
Yeah it's hard to make heads or tails from the grades apart from being 75 or higher means you're most likely very good.

Ruggs score :doh:
SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:13 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:09 pm For DK, was his score a 69 during the regular season and a 73 in the playoffs, or was his total season score bumped up to a 73 when including the playoffs?
It got bumped up tp 73 for the season and playoffs. That is the only WR that I saw a drastic improvement from season end to playoff end with his type of player profile.
Cool, thanks

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:15 pm

Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:11 pm
SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:07 pm
Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:03 pm

So Lamb overrated, Shenault and Mims underrated; I hate that PFF's grades match my assessment on these guys.
Not so much on Lamb being overrated. A quick synopsis and its clear that most WR that are above a 75 grade are gonna be top 24 WR in fantasy for a while. Based off this data.
Lamb is currently valued as the 2nd most valuable rookie WR and several tiers above Mims and Shenault as an asset.

Yet he was the 5th highest graded rookie WR, and scored .8 points above Shenault and 2.2 above Mims.

I'm not saying that he's bad, just that people are overvaluing him based on a college profile that was likely inflated by playing his entire career with 2 1.01 QBs and a 2nd round QB.
OH! Gotcha, gotcha, one thing that is very clear as I am about to send over the years before 2016 is if you have a season below 60, the player will not succeed. (HENRY RUGGS)
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:16 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:14 pm
SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:07 pm

Not so much on Lamb being overrated. A quick synopsis and its clear that most WR that are above a 75 grade are gonna be top 24 WR in fantasy for a while. Based off this data.
Yeah it's hard to make heads or tails from the grades apart from being 75 or higher means you're most likely very good.

Ruggs score :doh:
SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:13 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:09 pm For DK, was his score a 69 during the regular season and a 73 in the playoffs, or was his total season score bumped up to a 73 when including the playoffs?
It got bumped up tp 73 for the season and playoffs. That is the only WR that I saw a drastic improvement from season end to playoff end with his type of player profile.
Cool, thanks
I will also get the data for the 2nd year to see if there is any correlation for fantasy success there as well.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:21 pm

Btw, would you happen to know if Shenault's grades improved towards the tail end of his rookie season? Going over his tape, I think it might've. Looks like he survived almost entirely off of athleticism to start the year and developed as a route runner as the season wore on; reminds me a lot of DK Metcalf's rookie season arch.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:24 pm

Looks like it’s more Jeudy is overrated. More and more information that comes out the less and less it benefits him. Still I see people posting in these forums that it’s a steal to get him for 2 1sts... he’s worth an early 2 at this point.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:27 pm

Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:21 pm Btw, would you happen to know if Shenault's grades improved towards the tail end of his rookie season? Going over his tape, I think it might've. Looks like he survived almost entirely off of athleticism to start the year and developed as a route runner as the season wore on; reminds me a lot of DK Metcalf's rookie season arch.
So Shenaults two best games came week 4 and 5 where he had a grade over 80. Based on PFF he actually played his best ball of the season from weeks 1-7 where he earned above a 60 all but week 6 against DET where he had his worst game of the year with a 45.9 grade. The rest of the season he hovered around 60 as grade for the most part.

Metcalf on the other hand had his best games from wk 13 to the end of the season in his rookie year where all his games where around the 70 mark and the WC playoff game he earned a 89.8 grade.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:33 pm

SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:27 pm
Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:21 pm Btw, would you happen to know if Shenault's grades improved towards the tail end of his rookie season? Going over his tape, I think it might've. Looks like he survived almost entirely off of athleticism to start the year and developed as a route runner as the season wore on; reminds me a lot of DK Metcalf's rookie season arch.
So Shenaults two best games came week 4 and 5 where he had a grade over 80. Based on PFF he actually played his best ball of the season from weeks 1-7 where he earned above a 60 all but week 6 against DET where he had his worst game of the year with a 45.9 grade. The rest of the season he hovered around 60 as grade for the most part.

Metcalf on the other hand had his best game from wk 13 to the end of the season in his rookie year where all his games where around the 70 mark and the WC playoff game he earned a 89.8 grade.
Probably should mention those earlier Shenault games were with Minshew (i think up to week 5) and the rest of the season he had bums throwing to him.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:41 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:33 pm
SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:27 pm
Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:21 pm Btw, would you happen to know if Shenault's grades improved towards the tail end of his rookie season? Going over his tape, I think it might've. Looks like he survived almost entirely off of athleticism to start the year and developed as a route runner as the season wore on; reminds me a lot of DK Metcalf's rookie season arch.
So Shenaults two best games came week 4 and 5 where he had a grade over 80. Based on PFF he actually played his best ball of the season from weeks 1-7 where he earned above a 60 all but week 6 against DET where he had his worst game of the year with a 45.9 grade. The rest of the season he hovered around 60 as grade for the most part.

Metcalf on the other hand had his best game from wk 13 to the end of the season in his rookie year where all his games where around the 70 mark and the WC playoff game he earned a 89.8 grade.
Probably should mention those earlier Shenault games were with Minshew (i think up to week 5) and the rest of the season he had bums throwing to him.
So another interesting one is in 2010 Demaryius Thomas only had 283 yards, but PFF gave him an 82.7 grade. Which as we know DT was a top WR for a while there.
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:53 pm

WR's since 2010 with less than 47 YPG but over 75 PFF Grade their rookie years;

Antonio Brown 83.7
Demaryius Thomas 82.7
Tyreek Hill 80.6
Chris Godwin 80.4
Hunter Renfrow 76.5
Arrelious Benn 76
Lockett 75.8

It seems 80+ PFF Rookie Grade is ideal when the rookie receiver misses the 47 YPG threshold as a rookie. 75+ has a couple of misses such as Arrelious Benn and potentially Hunter Renfrow. Lockett has been good but not exactly a stud. In any event, guys like Lockett, Benn and Renfrow could be worth low cost dart throws even if you only hit 1 out of 3.

*All receivers with 15+ receptions and 80+ grade are accounted for. 75-79 group it's unclear if every receiver is accounted for.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:50 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:55 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:33 pm
SStory93 wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:27 pm
Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:21 pm Btw, would you happen to know if Shenault's grades improved towards the tail end of his rookie season? Going over his tape, I think it might've. Looks like he survived almost entirely off of athleticism to start the year and developed as a route runner as the season wore on; reminds me a lot of DK Metcalf's rookie season arch.
So Shenaults two best games came week 4 and 5 where he had a grade over 80. Based on PFF he actually played his best ball of the season from weeks 1-7 where he earned above a 60 all but week 6 against DET where he had his worst game of the year with a 45.9 grade. The rest of the season he hovered around 60 as grade for the most part.

Metcalf on the other hand had his best game from wk 13 to the end of the season in his rookie year where all his games where around the 70 mark and the WC playoff game he earned a 89.8 grade.
Probably should mention those earlier Shenault games were with Minshew (i think up to week 5) and the rest of the season he had bums throwing to him.
Appreciate it man! :thumbup:

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Tue Mar 09, 2021 3:40 pm

jjleurquin wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:24 pm Looks like it’s more Jeudy is overrated. More and more information that comes out the less and less it benefits him. Still I see people posting in these forums that it’s a steal to get him for 2 1sts... he’s worth an early 2 at this point.
Confirmation bias and take lock are a hell of a drug.

Most people didn't need PFF to tell them Jeudy played poorly this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about Jeudy in the same way that I am Reagor, though. Year 1 was definitely rough for both of them with or without their offenses holding them back; but they're talented guys with a good head on their shoulders. Both could rebound in a big way as soon as next season.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:16 pm

Sriracha wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 3:40 pm
jjleurquin wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:24 pm Looks like it’s more Jeudy is overrated. More and more information that comes out the less and less it benefits him. Still I see people posting in these forums that it’s a steal to get him for 2 1sts... he’s worth an early 2 at this point.
Confirmation bias and take lock are a hell of a drug.

Most people didn't need PFF to tell them Jeudy played poorly this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about Jeudy in the same way that I am Reagor, though. Year 1 was definitely rough for both of them with or without their offenses holding them back; but they're talented guys with a good head on their shoulders. Both could rebound in a big way as soon as next season.
Agreed. I’m just putting it out here to help someone because for whatever reason this forum (generally speaking) seems to think Jeudy gained value from his late 1st price tag last offseason.


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