WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby SStory93 » Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:40 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:14 pm So this PFF grade thing was really making me wonder so I actually paid for a PFF subscription to look at this. Results are interesting. Nothing a whole lot to gain but something maybe. I was going to make a new thread to put this alongside an updated version of this thread but then i got lazy. Some grades for some players are only based on maybe 20 targets or so, so take some of these numbers with a grain of salt. I probably should have identified the low target players but I forgot.

I should also mention that I used their receiving grades and not their overall grades. Overall grade tended to get some false positives with receivers who are good at rushing like Cordarelle Patterson. It seemed far better and consistent to use receiving grade instead.



PFF Grade for Studs (All groups)
Average 73.9
High 91.2 (OBJ)
Low 62 (Jordy Nelson)

PFF Grade for Good (All groups)
Average 67.7
High 80.4 (Doug Baldwin)
Low 59.9 (Pierre Garcon)

PFF Grade for Bust (37+ YPG)
READ - The busts average is misleading because I didn't look up the pff grade for all busts, it was only busts for the higher YPG (like 37+ or so), so the average really should be lower. But not much lower. Maybe by 5 points or so, as was the drop from the studs group to the good group.
Average 67.8
High 75.1 (Kenny Britt)
Low 57.5 (Greg Little)


So basically the higher the pff grade the better, but there isn't some massive difference between the groups. Only about 5 points or so on average separate the groups.

_____________________________________________________________

Below are all rookie wr's sorted into categories. 80+ has a great success rate. Under 60 has a high failure rate. However, I've noticed in more recent years that several under 60 receivers have broken out in subsequent years. So not sure what is going on there. I highlighted the ones that have had mini-breakouts. Still, not ideal for Ruggs :doh:

I should mention I included their entire rookie season, so regular season plus playoffs


WR's as Rookies

80+ PFF Grade - These guys basically don't bust.
Dwayne Bowe
Percy Harvin
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Doug Baldwin
Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
JJ Nelson (28 targets) :thumbdown:
Michael Thomas
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
AJ Brown
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk


75-80 PFF Grade - At first I thought the 75-80 group was very promising, and it's good but not quite as promising as I thought.
Santonio Holmes
Marques Colston
Sidney Rice
Anthony Gonzalez
Davone Bess
Kenny Britt
Arrelious Benn
Andrew Hawkins
Damaris Johnson
Jarvis Landry
Stefon Diggs
Tyler Lockett
Tyreek Hill (80+ if ignore the playoffs)
Cooper Kupp
Hunter Renfrow
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool


<60 PFF Grade
Hank Baskett
Chad Jackson
Derek Hagan
Laurent Robinson
Dwayne Jarrett
Chaz Schilens
Harry Douglas
Devin Thomas
James Hardy
Keenan Burton
Deon Butler
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Donald Jones
Riley Cooper
Dexter McCluster
Max Komar
Andre Roberts
Stephen Williams
Jonathan Baldwin
Dane Sanzenbacher
Greg Little
Rishard Matthews
Lavon Brazill
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Kevin Elliott
TJ Graham
Keshawn Martin
Josh Boyce
Da’Rick Rogers
Darius Johnson
Ty Montgomery
Darius Jennings
Rashad Greene
Donteea Dye
Devin Smith
Nelson Agholor
Keith Mumphery
Josh Docston
Charone Peake
Ricardo Louis
Robby Anderson (56.4)
Braxton Miller
Taywan Taylor
Josh Reynolds
Curtis Samuel (53.6)
Zay Jones
Mike Williams (51.8)
Travis Rudloph
DJ Chark (51.6)
James Washington
Marcell Ateman
Trent Sherfield
Damion Ratley
Miles Boykin
Parris Campbell
KeeSean Johnson
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Tyler Johnson
Isaiah Wright
Freddie Swain
Henry Ruggs
KJ Hamler
John Hightower

______________________________________

In short, I think the simplest way to use pff grading of rookie wr's is to look at who is over 80 and who is under 60. Anything else ends up in a mish mash of results. Yes, on average the higher the better, but to say always take the receiver graded at 72 over the receiver graded 67 might not get you the best results.
Good work as always! Interesting you chose to include playoffs. Do you include playoffs for the ypg thresholds?
12 Team PPR 2 Flex

QB: Hurts | Watson | Cousins
RB: Hall | Achane | Ekeler| Chubb | Kamara
WR: Hill | AJ Brown | Chase | Aiyuk
TE: Njoku | Waller

🏆: 2023


12 Team PPR SuperFlex IDP

QB: Hurts | Fields | Mayfield
RB: Bijan | Saquon | Ford
WR: Chase | Jefferson | AJ Brown | Metcalf | Puka | Collins
TE: Pitts | Freieemuth
DL: T. Watt
LB: White
DB: Adams | Kearse | Stingley

🏆: 2023

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:42 pm

As i'm reading over what I wrote, I realized that rookie receivers with 37+ YPG and over 75 PFF grade have never busted. They may not turn out to be studs but at least they don't bust.

Post 2015, I believe this is who would be in that group (leaving out the 80+ group, so 75-79);
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool
Hunter Renfrow
Cooper Kupp
Juju Smith-Schuster


All the numbers point to Hunter Renfrow being a strong buy at his price.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:44 pm

SStory93 wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:40 pm
Good work as always! Interesting you chose to include playoffs. Do you include playoffs for the ypg thresholds?
I'll be honest, I only realized about halfway through that I had +playoffs checked :lol: . It wasn't an intentional choice. However, I thought about it and figured it was ok to leave in as there are lots of variables during the season (injuries and whatever else), that more data points are probably better. However I guess you could argue that those WR's are theoretically going against abnormally steeper competition as they are versing playoff teams. In the end, I don't think it makes that much of a difference, but it was basically an accidental choice lmao. YPG thresholds I believe are regular season only? it's whatever pro football reference uses.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Ice » Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:53 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:36 pm Thanks for all this work and for buying a PFF subscription. Very interesting information.
Very good information indeed in hindsight but it needs to be married to QB performance and line play. Players like Chark as an example blew up in year two. The other factor is what is the depth on the team the rookies were on. I remember loving Chark as a rookie and I was in the minority big time and his dividends didn't really show until year two so these type of stats, while important, could easily give owners data that makes them sell early.

Ultimately drafting WR's in dynasty requires much patience as they all develop at different times for a variety of rather complex reasons. It is great when the player one drafts like a Jefferson breaks out in year 1 but in reality maybe 3% had him ranked as the best WR in the draft. His owners were very lucky, I was one of those and recognize that gift!.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Hottoddies » Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:22 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:14 pm So this PFF grade thing was really making me wonder so I actually paid for a PFF subscription to look at this. Results are interesting. Nothing a whole lot to gain but something maybe. I was going to make a new thread to put this alongside an updated version of this thread but then i got lazy. Some grades for some players are only based on maybe 20 targets or so, so take some of these numbers with a grain of salt. I probably should have identified the low target players but I forgot.

I should also mention that I used their receiving grades and not their overall grades. Overall grade tended to get some false positives with receivers who are good at rushing like Cordarelle Patterson. It seemed far better and consistent to use receiving grade instead.



PFF Grade for Studs (All YPG groups)
Average 73.9
High 91.2 (OBJ)
Low 62 (Jordy Nelson)

PFF Grade for Good (All YPG groups)
Average 67.7
High 80.4 (Doug Baldwin)
Low 59.9 (Pierre Garcon)

PFF Grade for Bust (37+ YPG)
READ - The busts average is misleading because I didn't look up the pff grade for all busts, it was only busts for the higher YPG (like 37+ or so), so the average really should be lower. But not much lower. Maybe by 5 points or so, as was the drop from the studs group to the good group.
Average 67.8
High 75.1 (Kenny Britt)
Low 57.5 (Greg Little)


So basically the higher the pff grade the better, but there isn't some massive difference between the groups. Only about 5 points or so on average separate the groups.

_____________________________________________________________

Below are all rookie wr's sorted into categories. 80+ has a great success rate. Under 60 has a high failure rate. However, I've noticed in more recent years that several under 60 receivers have broken out in subsequent years. So not sure what is going on there. I highlighted the ones that have had mini-breakouts. Still, not ideal for Ruggs :doh:

I should mention I included their entire rookie season, so regular season plus playoffs


WR's as Rookies

80+ PFF Grade - These guys basically don't bust.
Dwayne Bowe
Percy Harvin
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Doug Baldwin
Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
JJ Nelson (28 targets) :thumbdown:
Michael Thomas
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
AJ Brown
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk


75-80 PFF Grade - At first I thought the 75-80 group was very promising, and it's good but not quite as promising as I thought.
Santonio Holmes
Marques Colston
Sidney Rice
Anthony Gonzalez
Davone Bess
Kenny Britt
Arrelious Benn
Andrew Hawkins
Damaris Johnson
Jarvis Landry
Stefon Diggs
Tyler Lockett
Tyreek Hill (80+ if ignore the playoffs)
Cooper Kupp
Hunter Renfrow
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool


<60 PFF Grade
Hank Baskett
Chad Jackson
Derek Hagan
Laurent Robinson
Dwayne Jarrett
Chaz Schilens
Harry Douglas
Devin Thomas
James Hardy
Keenan Burton
Deon Butler
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Donald Jones
Riley Cooper
Dexter McCluster
Max Komar
Andre Roberts
Stephen Williams
Jonathan Baldwin
Dane Sanzenbacher
Greg Little
Rishard Matthews
Lavon Brazill
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Kevin Elliott
TJ Graham
Keshawn Martin
Josh Boyce
Da’Rick Rogers
Darius Johnson
Ty Montgomery
Darius Jennings
Rashad Greene
Donteea Dye
Devin Smith
Nelson Agholor (48.5)
Keith Mumphery
Josh Docston
Charone Peake
Ricardo Louis
Robby Anderson (56.4)
Braxton Miller
Taywan Taylor
Josh Reynolds
Curtis Samuel (53.6)
Zay Jones
Mike Williams (51.8)
Travis Rudloph
DJ Chark (51.6)
James Washington
Marcell Ateman
Trent Sherfield
Damion Ratley
Miles Boykin
Parris Campbell
KeeSean Johnson
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Tyler Johnson
Isaiah Wright
Freddie Swain
Henry Ruggs
KJ Hamler
John Hightower

______________________________________

In short, I think the simplest way to use pff grading of rookie wr's is to look at who is over 80 and who is under 60. Anything else ends up in a mish mash of results. [edit: and seemingly over 75+ gives you a nice floor when combined with a decent YPG]. Yes, on average the higher the better, but to say always take the receiver graded at 72 over the receiver graded 67 might not get you the best results.
That's a fairly extensive list but what about guys like Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen or Robert Woods?
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:59 pm

If they’re not on the list it means they were somewhere in the 60-75 range.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:01 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:59 pm If they’re not on the list it means they were somewhere in the 60-75 range.
Thanks for this haha, I also missed the gap in those numbers and was wondering where a bunch of players were.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:18 pm

AussieMate wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:01 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:59 pm If they’re not on the list it means they were somewhere in the 60-75 range.
Thanks for this haha, I also missed the gap in those numbers and was wondering where a bunch of players were.
Yeah, there's didn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to the rest of the numbers other than on average the better the score the better the player. For example, someone asked about Adams, and his rookie PFF grade was 60.3 or something.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby blemly » Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:26 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:18 pm
AussieMate wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:01 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:59 pm If they’re not on the list it means they were somewhere in the 60-75 range.
Thanks for this haha, I also missed the gap in those numbers and was wondering where a bunch of players were.
Yeah, there's didn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to the rest of the numbers other than on average the better the score the better the player. For example, someone asked about Adams, and his rookie PFF grade was 60.3 or something.
Certainly an outlier though to be fair. Not sure I can ever recall a player that has looked so poor in his first 2 years turn out to be so good.
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Russ, Stafford, Geno, Dalton
RB: Harris, Gibson, Chubb, Cohen
WR: DK, Ridley, Kirk, Chark, Woods, C Samuel, Shepard, Reagor
TE: Fant, Knox
Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TEP:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Geno, Foles
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen, Pollard
WR: DJM, Cooper, Sutton, Deebo, R. Moore, ARSB, Eskridge, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Arnold
Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Winston, Cam
RB: Harris, Ekeler, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, Woods, Chark, Lockett
TE: Gesicki, OJH, Firkser
Team 4: 12-team SF TEP Devy
QB: Wilson, Geno, Ryan, Cousins
RB: Zeke, Chubb, Sanders, Pollard, Hines, Cohen, Henderson
WR: Cooper, Godwin, Sutton, JuJu, Samuel, Fuller, Shepard, Campbell
TE: Fant, Gesicki, Ertz, Freiermuth
Devy: Boutte, Young, Slovis, Harris
Team 5: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lance, Jones, Cam
RB: Swift, Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Golladay, Chase, Pittman, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Wallace
TE: Herndon, Gesicki, Freiermuth

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:48 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:22 pm
That's a fairly extensive list but what about guys like Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen or Robert Woods?
Can't sleep. Here ya go.

Adams - 60.3
ARob - 68.2
Hopkins - 69.0
Thielen - 66.3
Robert Woods - 62.3

Like I said, on average the higher the better but it's kind of all over the place if you're trying to hone in on any particular player.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Mjvb5 » Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:42 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:48 pm
Hottoddies wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:22 pm
That's a fairly extensive list but what about guys like Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen or Robert Woods?
Can't sleep. Here ya go.

Adams - 60.3
ARob - 68.2
Hopkins - 69.0
Thielen - 66.3
Robert Woods - 62.3

Like I said, on average the higher the better but it's kind of all over the place if you're trying to hone in on any particular player.
First off thank you so much for the work putting this all together.

But that statement cannot be overstated and applies to basically any kinda stat or metric as far as predicting breakout. There is no be all end all and these are merely about optimizing a handful of percentage points toward success.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:06 pm

I should probably wait until after the draft for this question but i dont want to :) :) :) who do we see doing this in the 2021 class? Also this metric may need to be adjusted with the 17 game schedule, do you know how you are gonna go about doing that?

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:21 pm

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:06 pm I should probably wait until after the draft for this question but i dont want to :) :) :) who do we see doing this in the 2021 class? Also this metric may need to be adjusted with the 17 game schedule, do you know how you are gonna go about doing that?
Not sure which thing you are specifically referring to. Most of this is based on Yards per Game when evaluating rookies, so not much should change. The 1k yard threshold for who qualifies as a stud or whatever may have to be changed to include 1k yards plus a 62.5+ ypg average (the average you'd have to maintain throughout 16 games to hit 1k yards).

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Sat May 01, 2021 8:07 am

Bump.

Day 3 starting soon. Who's the potential breakout candidates?
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
'24: (4) 1sts, 2nd, (2) 3rds, 4th
'25: (2) 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:11 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:42 pm As i'm reading over what I wrote, I realized that rookie receivers with 37+ YPG and over 75 PFF grade have never busted. They may not turn out to be studs but at least they don't bust.

Post 2015, I believe this is who would be in that group (leaving out the 80+ group, so 75-79);
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool
Hunter Renfrow
Cooper Kupp
Juju Smith-Schuster


All the numbers point to Hunter Renfrow being a strong buy at his price.
Would be kind of cool if he ended up becoming something


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