WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:08 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:28 pm
VJax would be in the 0-4, no?
Im seeing he had 8.4 YPG?

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby ericanadian » Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:29 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:08 pm
ericanadian wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:28 pm
VJax would be in the 0-4, no?
Im seeing he had 8.4 YPG?
Sorry, misread the title.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby nathanq42 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:48 pm

Sorry to bother DD but if you have the data on hand do you have where the recent rookies fall into in regards of ypg? If not no worries, I can search and cross reference
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QB Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill
RB CEH, Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Preston Williams, Bryan Edwards, James Washington, Van Jefferson
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:50 pm

nathanq42 wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:48 pm
Sorry to bother DD but if you have the data on hand do you have where the recent rookies fall into in regards of ypg? If not no worries, I can search and cross reference
I’ll make it better later but the list, min 8 games played

75 Michael Thomas
65 AJB
65 Terry Mac
65 Juju
57 Kupp
56 DK
53 Preston Williams
53 Deebo Samuel
52 Darius Slayton
51 Calvin Ridley
49 DJ Moore
49 Christian Kirk

That’s the list of you want to use the 47 YPG cutoff that shows a clear drop off in player quality after that. From 47-69 YPG will give you a 75% chance at a productive player with name recognition (so typically at least several seasons of 800+ receiving yards although I did include guys like Josh Gordon and Percy Harvin). There’s 12 players on that list so about 9 will continue to be good and about 3 will disappoint.

70 and above are just instant studs basically lol, except for Michael Clayton. An interesting thing to note is doing it by YPG it leaves out KB and pulls in Julio Jones into this "stud" threshold.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:36 am

Very interesting stuff, it seems so obvious but its not to many people. According to all of this Mclaurin has a great chance of being very fantasy relevant yet many still doubt him due to team and him being basically unknown before the draft.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby nathanq42 » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:35 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:50 pm
nathanq42 wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:48 pm
Sorry to bother DD but if you have the data on hand do you have where the recent rookies fall into in regards of ypg? If not no worries, I can search and cross reference
I’ll make it better later but the list, min 8 games played

75 Michael Thomas
65 AJB
65 Terry Mac
65 Juju
57 Kupp
56 DK
53 Preston Williams
53 Deebo Samuel
52 Darius Slayton
51 Calvin Ridley
49 DJ Moore
49 Christian Kirk

That’s the list of you want to use the 47 YPG cutoff that shows a clear drop off in player quality after that. From 47-69 YPG will give you a 75% chance at a productive player with name recognition (so typically at least several seasons of 800+ receiving yards although I did include guys like Josh Gordon and Percy Harvin). There’s 12 players on that list so about 9 will continue to be good and about 3 will disappoint.

70 and above are just instant studs basically lol, except for Michael Clayton. An interesting thing to note is doing it by YPG it leaves out KB and pulls in Julio Jones into this "stud" threshold.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:37 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:36 am
Very interesting stuff, it seems so obvious but its not to many people. According to all of this Mclaurin has a great chance of being very fantasy relevant yet many still doubt him due to team and him being basically unknown before the draft.
Outside of Michael Thomas and AJB, you couldn't ask for a better start. And the thing is once you put up a rookie season like that you can basically throw draft capital out the window. I'd argue that Terry McLaurin should be valued over any WR in rookie drafts this season. It's hard to imagine Lamb or Jeudy being productive enough given the other receiving talents on their respective teams to put them in a tier above Terry.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:40 pm

Alright I kind of simplified it a bit and made the cutoffs at more natural spots. I also included the percentages for fantasy relevant players as well.

You can see how over 47 YPG your chances of at least a fantasy relevant player for several years is excellent, at least 73% or better, even if your chance at a stud is a lot lower.

1995-2015
Draft Capital ignored
Hit = 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
Fantasy Relevant = I had to use my own judgement on this one but roughly 3+ 800+ yard receiving seasons, or 2 1k yard receiving seasons


Rookie Reception Yards Per Game, min 8 games played

67+
Hits – 9
Busts – 1
Hit Rate – 90%
Bust Rate – 10%

2016-2019 Rookies
Michael Thomas

_________________________________________

57-66
Hits – 7
Busts – 8
Hit Rate – 47%
Bust Rate – 53%
11 of 15 (73%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
A.J. Brown
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Cooper Kupp

_________________________________________

47-56
Hits – 8
Busts – 21
Hit Rate – 28%
Bust Rate – 72%
22 of 29 (76%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
DK Metcalf
Preston Williams
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Calvin Ridley
D.J. Moore
Christian Kirk

_________________________________________

37-46
Hits – 3
Busts – 39
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%
10 of 42 (24%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
Keelan Cole
Hunter Renfrow
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Courtland Sutton
Kenny Golladay
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Marquise Brown
Robert Foster
Corey Coleman
Dante Pettis
Tyler Boyd
Tyreek Hill

_________________________________________

27-36
Hits – 6
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
11 of 63 (17%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Corey Davis
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup
Breshad Perriman
Trent Taylor
Malcolm Mitchell
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Equanimeous St. Brown

_________________________________________

17-26
Hits – 7
Busts – 66
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
13 of 73 (18%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
Keith Kirkwood
Cody Core
Jakobi Meyers
Kendrick Bourne
Kelvin Harmon
Zay Jones
Geronimo Allison
Ricky Seals-Jones
Scott Miller
Tim Patrick
Chester Rogers
Steven Sims
KeeSean Johnson
Olabisi Johnson
DaeSean Hamilton

_________________________________________

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:10 pm

Simplified and Revised Hit Rates based on Rookie Receiving Yardage

1000+
83%

900-999
44%

750-899
36%

150-749
9%

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:31 pm

Updated Big Board

Rookie Metrics Only

100%---(100+ Rookie Receptions)

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Michael Thomas

83%----(1000+ Rookie Receiving Yardage)
A.J. Brown

70%----(70-99 Rookie Receptions)

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Cooper Kupp

44%----(900-999 Rookie Receiving Yardage)
D.K. Metcalf

42%----(60-69 Rookie Receptions)
Sterling Shepard
Calvin Ridley
Tyreek Hill

36%----(750-899 Rookie Receiving Yardage)
Deebo Samuel
D.J. Moore

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Preston Williams
Darius Slayton
Christian Kirk

10% or less - Everyone else

___________________________________________________
___________________________________________________


With everything we know today

100%---(100+ Rookie Receptions)

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Michael Thomas

83%----(1000+ Rookie Receiving Yardage)
A.J. Brown

70%----(70-99 Rookie Receptions)

52%----(2nd or 3rd Year Breakout)
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyreek Hill
D.J. Moore
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
Chris Godwin
Tyler Boyd
Cooper Kupp
Mike Williams

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Terry McLaurin

45%----(4th or 5th year Breakout)

44%----(900-999 Rookie Receiving Yardage)
D.K. Metcalf

42%----(60-69 Rookie Receptions)
Sterling Shepard
Calvin Ridley

36%----(750-899 Rookie Receiving Yardage)
Deebo Samuel

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Preston Williams
Darius Slayton
Christian Kirk

10% or less - Everyone else

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Johnny Canuck » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:46 am

Great work DD!

I was thinking about this a bit, and I wonder if the players that made up the hit% were more likely to be younger rookies, and if the players that busted were more likely to fall on the older spectrum for a rookie and/or breakout performance. Depending on the information, we might be able to further refine chances of a hit.

For example, based on the numbers we theorize that only 52% of these players will hit (which seems crazy when you look at the names on that list):

52%----(2nd or 3rd Year Breakout)

DJ Chark (23yrs age at breakout)
Michael Gallup (23)
Kenny Golladay (26)
Tyreek Hill (24)
D.J. Moore (22)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (22)
Courtland Sutton (24)
Chris Godwin (23)
Tyler Boyd (24)
Cooper Kupp (26)
Mike Williams (25)

I would hypothesize that the older the player is when they hit their breakout, the less likely they are to becoming a true stud (getting to 3 or more 1000+ yard seasons). This is likely due to having less time to reach these metrics; however, we know that the best of the best play productive football longer than others so in theory they could have more years available on the back end of their career. So it could be a good correlation? or it might not be lol, it needs to be dug into. But increasing chances of a hit is always nice. Just a thought, if I dig through the information I'll post it.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Yarnith » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:36 pm

So about 1/3rd of the way down in this article is a relevent reference about rookies and yardage/targets/catches. Check it out.
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020/ ... -williams/
12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex


QB: J. Allen, J. Goff, D. Haskins

RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CE,H, Ty Johnson, B. Love, D. Guice, R. Calais, D. Washington

WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, R. Woods, D. Slayton, P. Williams, H. Ruggs, D. Mims, T. Smith, KJ Hamler

TE: G. Kittle, H. Henry

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:52 pm

Yarnith wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:36 pm
So about 1/3rd of the way down in this article is a relevent reference about rookies and yardage/targets/catches. Check it out.
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020/ ... -williams/
It’s behind a paywall

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:54 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:46 am
Great work DD!

I was thinking about this a bit, and I wonder if the players that made up the hit% were more likely to be younger rookies, and if the players that busted were more likely to fall on the older spectrum for a rookie and/or breakout performance. Depending on the information, we might be able to further refine chances of a hit.

For example, based on the numbers we theorize that only 52% of these players will hit (which seems crazy when you look at the names on that list):

52%----(2nd or 3rd Year Breakout)

DJ Chark (23yrs age at breakout)
Michael Gallup (23)
Kenny Golladay (26)
Tyreek Hill (24)
D.J. Moore (22)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (22)
Courtland Sutton (24)
Chris Godwin (23)
Tyler Boyd (24)
Cooper Kupp (26)
Mike Williams (25)

I would hypothesize that the older the player is when they hit their breakout, the less likely they are to becoming a true stud (getting to 3 or more 1000+ yard seasons). This is likely due to having less time to reach these metrics; however, we know that the best of the best play productive football longer than others so in theory they could have more years available on the back end of their career. So it could be a good correlation? or it might not be lol, it needs to be dug into. But increasing chances of a hit is always nice. Just a thought, if I dig through the information I'll post it.
Yeah, I thought so too, but that conflicts with my findings that a year 5 breakout is roughly the same success rate as a year 2 breakout. If age was that important I’m not sure we would be seeing those numbers. Idk though it’s something to look into.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:04 am

So this was a lot of information but one of the easiest and reliable numbers is rookie reception yards per game (minimum of 8 games). I know it's super early but right now we have several rookies above that number;


90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson
Lamb

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jeudy

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Claypool
Reagor


Aiyuk is close (45.5 YPG) and could very well get over that mark


Notable rookies well under these marks;

10% or less - Everyone else
Shenault
Bryan Edwards
Ruggs
Higgins
Pittman


Still a lot of time left to change things, but guys like Edwards, Ruggs, and Pittman will be battling through injuries to do so.


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