WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:39 pm

I just included more data sets all the way down to 100 yards. Believe it or not, there's statistically no difference between a rookie with a 100-199 yard rookie season and one with a 600-699 yard rookie season lol. That's kind of shocking. It's pretty much a flat 6-7% hit rate all throughout 100 ---> 699 yards. There's an interesting blip in the middle though at the 300-399 yard mark.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:26 pm

I went back over my original breakout year numbers using the tool Johnny posted earlier and came up with slightly different numbers. I must have missed some players the first time around when I was doing it "by hand." Also expanded to include year 4 and year 5 breakouts. The results are very very interesting. Year 1 is by far the best, but we knew that already. However, breakout years 2-5 are nearly identical. That's... stunning.

Year 1 Breakout
Hits – 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%

__________________________________

Year 2 breakout
Hits – 18
Busts – 18
Hit Rate – 50%
Bust Rate – 50%


Year 3 breakout
Hits – 17
Busts – 14
Hit Rate – 55%
Bust Rate – 45%

__________________________________
Year 2-3 breakout average
Hit rate – 52%
Bust Rate – 48%
__________________________________


Year 4 breakout
Hits – 11
Busts – 13
Hit Rate – 46%
Bust Rate – 54%


Year 5 breakout
Hits – 7
Busts – 9
Hit rate – 44%
Bust rate – 56%

__________________________________
Year 4-5 breakout average
Hit rate – 45%
Bust rate – 55%
__________________________________


Year 6 breakouts are when the percentages tank into the toilet.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:06 pm

Putting all this information together into something we can view more easily and use...


Given current information, odds for players who entered the league between the years of 2016-2019 of becoming a star player;

83% (Year 1 Breakout for 1k yards)
Michael Thomas
AJ Brown

52% (Year 2 or 3 Breakout for 1k yards)
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyreek Hill
D.J. Moore
Juju Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
Chris Godwin
Tyler Boyd
Cooper Kupp
Mike Williams

42-44% (60-69 rookie receptions or 900-999 rookie receiving yards)
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
Calvin Ridley
Sterling Shepard

28-29% (50-59 rookie receptions or 700-899 rookie receiving yards)
Diontae Johnson
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Keelan Cole

5-10% (Every player not listed above)
- Notable players include Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman, Preston Williams, Anthony Miller, Corey Davis, Andy Isabella, JJAWS, Parris Campbell, Curtis Samuel, N'Keal Harry :vsad: , John Ross, Miles Boykin, Josh Reynolds, Robby Anderson

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:35 am

Power Rankings
100% - 100+ Rookie Receptions
83% --- 1st Year Breakout
70% --- 70-99 Rookie Receptions
52% --- 2nd or 3rd Year Breakout
45% --- 4th or 5th Year Breakout
44% --- 900-999 Rookie Receiving Yards
42% --- 60-69 Rookie Receptions
29% --- 700-899 Rookie Receiving Yards
28% --- 50-59 Rookie Receptions
8% ---- 100-699 Rookie Receiving Yards
8% ---- 10-49 Rookie Receptions

*Breakout = 1st 1k yard receiving season
**% = Percentage of players that accrued 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons that met these thresholds between 1995-2015

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:55 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:06 pm
Putting all this information together into something we can view more easily and use...


Given current information, odds for players who entered the league between the years of 2016-2019 of becoming a star player;

83% (Year 1 Breakout for 1k yards)
Michael Thomas
AJ Brown

52% (Year 2 or 3 Breakout for 1k yards)
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyreek Hill
D.J. Moore
Juju Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
Chris Godwin
Tyler Boyd
Cooper Kupp
Mike Williams

42-44% (60-69 rookie receptions or 900-999 rookie receiving yards)
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
Calvin Ridley
Sterling Shepard

28-29% (50-59 rookie receptions or 700-899 rookie receiving yards)
Diontae Johnson
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Keelan Cole

5-10% (Every player not listed above)
- Notable players include Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman, Preston Williams, Anthony Miller, Corey Davis, Andy Isabella, JJAWS, Parris Campbell, Curtis Samuel, N'Keal Harry :vsad: , John Ross, Miles Boykin, Josh Reynolds, Robby Anderson
Define “Star”
12 team PPR, 1QB, No negative points, all TDs 6
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham, Hurts, Winston
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor, Dobbins
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Higgins, S Miller, Proche
TE: Engram, Hockenson, Arnold, Trautman
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 3, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR 1QB
QB: Brady, Darnold, Bridgewater, Lock (TS), Stidham (TS)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Edmonds, Taylor, Dobbins (TS)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, G. Tate, Guyton, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS), S. Miller (TS), Higgins (TS)
TE: Jarwin, I Smith, Arnold, Trautman (TS)
K: Succop
DEF: Streaming
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 3, 2021 3, All 2022 picks

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Yarnith » Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:04 am

Interesting stuff, there are a couple articles about "3rd year" and "2nd year breakout" rule that break down how college offenses, NFL trends and overrall schemes have changed those dynamics. Similar research in those some mentioning draft capital as well.

The thing I wonder with your data is if you did the same thing with Targets per game, Catches and games started in the mix. Preston Williams is a good example, he only played 8 games before injury but saw 60 targets during that period. In comparison AJ Brown one of your gold standards saw 84 targets over 16 games. Now Preston only caught 53% and AJ caught 61% of those but I think that is good for the stats. Do targets ergo opportunity match up with yardage? Is catch percentage relevant or just pure volume? It is possible a large portion of the hits in all tiers may share a certain target % or catch % shared with 1000yd receivers. On that does yards per game show us a player like Preston Williams is in the elite tier?

I use Preston here because he played phalf a season (8 games) and averaged 6+ targets a game over that period. Seems like that makes for a great benchmark to test.
12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex


QB: J. Allen, J. Goff, D. Haskins

RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CE,H, Ty Johnson, B. Love, D. Guice, R. Calais, D. Washington

WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, R. Woods, D. Slayton, P. Williams, H. Ruggs, D. Mims, T. Smith, KJ Hamler

TE: G. Kittle, H. Henry

2021 1.12 , 3.8, 3.12, 4.9, 4.12

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:36 am

Just the definition I’ve been using, 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
Yarnith wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:04 am
Interesting stuff, there are a couple articles about "3rd year" and "2nd year breakout" rule that break down how college offenses, NFL trends and overrall schemes have changed those dynamics. Similar research in those some mentioning draft capital as well.

The thing I wonder with your data is if you did the same thing with Targets per game, Catches and games started in the mix. Preston Williams is a good example, he only played 8 games before injury but saw 60 targets during that period. In comparison AJ Brown one of your gold standards saw 84 targets over 16 games. Now Preston only caught 53% and AJ caught 61% of those but I think that is good for the stats. Do targets ergo opportunity match up with yardage? Is catch percentage relevant or just pure volume? It is possible a large portion of the hits in all tiers may share a certain target % or catch % shared with 1000yd receivers. On that does yards per game show us a player like Preston Williams is in the elite tier?

I use Preston here because he played phalf a season (8 games) and averaged 6+ targets a game over that period. Seems like that makes for a great benchmark to test.
Draft capital before they play in the nfl is important, but I didn’t notice a big difference in draft capital once a player has broken out in the nfl. It might help a little bit but not more than 5% or so, at least in the groups that I checked.

Targets per game is a good idea. The only one they have on the site is yards per game though, but it’d be pretty close to targets per game. Preston ranks 5th among the rookies last year. I’ll try to add those.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Yarnith » Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:51 pm

Oh I was saying those writers articles noted draft capital was mostly irrelevant in the modern age. It used to be 2-3 years before a WR saw enough targets to break out. Thats where those 2year/3year breakouts came from. Draft Capital meant more because teams were more patient with high rnd picks developing over 3 tyears. Modern football at the college level has those WR's much more NFL ready, so volume and yardage is more telling. If a rookie player produces great and if they don't its a bust warning. One suggested the 3year rule is more useful for mid to late round picks as a way to find a sleeper candidates.

What site is it that isn't showing tgts? Profootball Ref has them thought you were pulling stats from it.
12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex


QB: J. Allen, J. Goff, D. Haskins

RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CE,H, Ty Johnson, B. Love, D. Guice, R. Calais, D. Washington

WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, R. Woods, D. Slayton, P. Williams, H. Ruggs, D. Mims, T. Smith, KJ Hamler

TE: G. Kittle, H. Henry

2021 1.12 , 3.8, 3.12, 4.9, 4.12

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jul 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Yarnith wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:51 pm
Oh I was saying those writers articles noted draft capital was mostly irrelevant in the modern age. It used to be 2-3 years before a WR saw enough targets to break out. Thats where those 2year/3year breakouts came from. Draft Capital meant more because teams were more patient with high rnd picks developing over 3 tyears. Modern football at the college level has those WR's much more NFL ready, so volume and yardage is more telling. If a rookie player produces great and if they don't its a bust warning. One suggested the 3year rule is more useful for mid to late round picks as a way to find a sleeper candidates.

What site is it that isn't showing tgts? Profootball Ref has them thought you were pulling stats from it.
Yeah but not targets per game?

I'll post the full results later but basically if we're looking at yards per game, min of 8 games, we want 45+ yards per game to get decent odds (so like 30% or better) at a good player.

Lower than 45 yards per game gives you about 10% odds maybe less.

You start getting into the 50% range or better at 60+ yards per game.

70+ YPG is elite status, 80%+

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Yarnith » Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:07 pm

Fair enough its hard to figure what they consider a GS so I cant find a decent way to work it out without going through gamelogs. Have you compared the YPG results to your original and see if it pulls in the hits in the sub 1000 yard categories?
12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex


QB: J. Allen, J. Goff, D. Haskins

RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CE,H, Ty Johnson, B. Love, D. Guice, R. Calais, D. Washington

WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, R. Woods, D. Slayton, P. Williams, H. Ruggs, D. Mims, T. Smith, KJ Hamler

TE: G. Kittle, H. Henry

2021 1.12 , 3.8, 3.12, 4.9, 4.12

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby esloan35 » Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:19 pm

Excellent data and information. Thank you for the time and post.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:01 am

Yarnith wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:07 pm
Fair enough its hard to figure what they consider a GS so I cant find a decent way to work it out without going through gamelogs. Have you compared the YPG results to your original and see if it pulls in the hits in the sub 1000 yard categories?
Sorry been busy, will post more later. I think YPG does look like a cleaner metric than total yards. I’m looking at the list of Rookie Receiving YPG of 48-60 With 8+ games played and it’s a ridiculously good list. They don’t all qualify as hits as I’ve defined but literally about 80% of the players in that range are at least quality starters, like a Harvin or Maclin type or better. The biggest risers from that would be Christian Kirk (49.2 YPG) and Preston Williams (53.5 YPG).

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Csl312 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:06 pm

You probably haven't looked at this and I'm sure it would be a ton of work to compile but any feel for how overall share of offensive production plays into this? Do players who don't hit the 1k mark but are on low volume teams fare better?

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:01 pm

Rookie Reception Yards Per Game
Must have played in min 8 games. Had to make it like this to filter out the many many players who only played a couple of games.
Only Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Amani Toomer hit despite playing in less than 8. So very rare.

To me is seemed like 70+ YPG was excellent, littered with stars. 60-70 was good. After that, 45+ YPG looks to be a cutoff point. More specifically, if you look within that tier it's really 47+ YPG as a hard cutoff. Despite the low hit rate in the 47-60 range, the types of players there were consistently productive. Below 45 things seem to just be totally random, 5-10% hit rate until you get to the bottom.

100+
Hits – 1
Busts – 0
Hit Rate – 100%
Bust Rate – 0%

90-99
Hits – 0
Busts – 0
Hit Rate –
Bust Rate –

80-89
Hits – 2
Busts – 0
Hit Rate – 100%
Bust Rate – 0%

70-79
Hits – 5
Busts – 1
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%

65-69
Hits – 1
Busts – 1
Hit Rate – 50%
Bust Rate – 50%

60-64
Hits – 3
Busts – 4
Hit Rate – 43%
Bust Rate – 57%

55-59
Hits – 3
Busts – 7
Hit Rate – 30%
Bust Rate – 70%

Very productive WR’s in this range however. Crabtree, Diggs, Nicks, Chris Chambers

50-54
Hits – 3
Busts – 13
Hit Rate – 19%
Bust Rate – 81%

Very productive WR’s in this range again that didn’t quite qualify as a hit. Jordan Matthews, ARob, Lee Evans, Percy Harvin, Maclin, Santonio Holmes, Josh Gordon, Braylon Edwards,

45-49
Hits – 6
Busts – 10
Hit Rate – 38%
Bust Rate – 62%

40-44
Hits – 1
Busts – 20
Hit Rate – 5%
Bust Rate – 95%

35-39
Hits – 0
Busts – 20
Hit Rate – 0%
Bust Rate – 100%

30-34
Hits – 2
Busts – 24
Hit Rate – 8%
Bust Rate – 92%

25-29
Hits – 5
Busts – 37
Hit Rate – 12%
Bust Rate – 88%

20-24
Hits – 4
Busts – 35
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%

15-19
Hits – 3
Busts – 28
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%

10-14
Hits – 2
Busts – 56
Hit Rate – 3%
Bust Rate – 97%

5-9
Hits – 4
Busts – 66
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%

0-4
Hits – 1
Busts – 99
Hit Rate – 1%
Bust Rate – 99%
Did not go through every player for this group, in about 100+ players I saw only 1 hit (Joe Horn).

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby ericanadian » Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:28 pm

VJax would be in the 0-4, no?
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Tannehill, Mariota
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris, Laird, Love
WR - Julio, C. Davis, AJ Brown, Samuel, Washington, Di. Johnson, Isabella
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Hunter, Armstead, Quinn
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds
K - Just a stupid kicker


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