WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

[Ice]

Looks like it’s more Jeudy is overrated. More and more information that comes out the less and less it benefits him. Still I see people posting in these forums that it’s a steal to get him for 2 1sts... he’s worth an early 2 at this point.

Confirmation bias and take lock are a hell of a drug.

Most people didn't need PFF to tell them Jeudy played poorly this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about Jeudy in the same way that I am Reagor, though. Year 1 was definitely rough for both of them with or without their offenses holding them back; but they're talented guys with a good head on their shoulders. Both could rebound in a big way as soon as next season.

Agree

Yea no matter how one spins it Denver and Philly had HORRIBLE QB play..

That’s not easy on rookie WR’s that are already challenged to learn an NFL system in the Covid era.

Think putting too much weight on historical stats may not be the wisest metric given the uniqueness of a 100 year event.

[StripesOfKC]

Looks like it’s more Jeudy is overrated. More and more information that comes out the less and less it benefits him. Still I see people posting in these forums that it’s a steal to get him for 2 1sts... he’s worth an early 2 at this point.

Confirmation bias and take lock are a hell of a drug.

Most people didn't need PFF to tell them Jeudy played poorly this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about Jeudy in the same way that I am Reagor, though. Year 1 was definitely rough for both of them with or without their offenses holding them back; but they're talented guys with a good head on their shoulders. Both could rebound in a big way as soon as next season.

Agreed. I’m just putting it out here to help someone because for whatever reason this forum (generally speaking) seems to think Jeudy gained value from his late 1st price tag last offseason.

Nope but I can't see how 856 yards with Drew Lock later he would have lost it. Early 2nd lol

No sane Jeudy owner would flip him for the chance to draft a tier 4 WR talent

[jjleurquin]

Confirmation bias and take lock are a hell of a drug.

Most people didn't need PFF to tell them Jeudy played poorly this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about Jeudy in the same way that I am Reagor, though. Year 1 was definitely rough for both of them with or without their offenses holding them back; but they're talented guys with a good head on their shoulders. Both could rebound in a big way as soon as next season.

Agreed. I’m just putting it out here to help someone because for whatever reason this forum (generally speaking) seems to think Jeudy gained value from his late 1st price tag last offseason.

Nope but I can't see how 856 yards with Drew Lock later he would have lost it. Early 2nd lol

No sane Jeudy owner would flip him for the chance to draft a tier 4 WR talent

Late 1st to early 2nd isn’t that big of a drop. No sane Jeudy owner would expect to get back what they used to draft him at this point in time.

[Anteaters]

WR's since 2010 with less than 47 YPG but over 75 PFF Grade their rookie years;

Antonio Brown 83.7
Demaryius Thomas 82.7
Tyreek Hill 80.6
Chris Godwin 80.4
Hunter Renfrow 76.5
Arrelious Benn 76
Lockett 75.8

It seems 80+ PFF Rookie Grade is ideal when the rookie receiver misses the 47 YPG threshold as a rookie. 75+ has a couple of misses such as Arrelious Benn and potentially Hunter Renfrow. Lockett has been good but not exactly a stud. In any event, guys like Lockett, Benn and Renfrow could be worth low cost dart throws even if you only hit 1 out of 3.

*All receivers with 15+ receptions and 80+ grade are accounted for. 75-79 group it's unclear if every receiver is accounted for.

Very interesting stat. Demaryius was a great WR talent. This stat looks like a good yardstick.

I think Renfrow is a sleeper. He could be a consistent 90 catch 1000 yd 10TD guy for a few years. He runs precise routes, has great hands, and is ridiculously tough. The only thing he's missing is a consistently accurate QB. I'm targeting Renfrow as a late pick in every league.

Benn shares a name with my son (diff spelling) but I don't have much faith in him. Lockettl, of course, is good enough to verify the statistic.

[Jigga94]

WR's since 2010 with less than 47 YPG but over 75 PFF Grade their rookie years;

Antonio Brown 83.7
Demaryius Thomas 82.7
Tyreek Hill 80.6
Chris Godwin 80.4
Hunter Renfrow 76.5
Arrelious Benn 76
Lockett 75.8

It seems 80+ PFF Rookie Grade is ideal when the rookie receiver misses the 47 YPG threshold as a rookie. 75+ has a couple of misses such as Arrelious Benn and potentially Hunter Renfrow. Lockett has been good but not exactly a stud. In any event, guys like Lockett, Benn and Renfrow could be worth low cost dart throws even if you only hit 1 out of 3.

*All receivers with 15+ receptions and 80+ grade are accounted for. 75-79 group it's unclear if every receiver is accounted for.

Very interesting stat. Demaryius was a great WR talent. This stat looks like a good yardstick.

I think Renfrow is a sleeper. He could be a consistent 90 catch 1000 yd 10TD guy for a few years. He runs precise routes, has great hands, and is ridiculously tough. The only thing he's missing is a consistently accurate QB. I'm targeting Renfrow as a late pick in every league.

Benn shares a name with my son (diff spelling) but I don't have much faith in him. Lockettl, of course, is good enough to verify the statistic.

Consistent 90/1k/10??? That sounds awfully high considering he's averaged 52/630/3 his first 2 years but hey he's pretty cheap right now and if youre right, that's a steal

[Jigga94]

Confirmation bias and take lock are a hell of a drug.

Most people didn't need PFF to tell them Jeudy played poorly this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about Jeudy in the same way that I am Reagor, though. Year 1 was definitely rough for both of them with or without their offenses holding them back; but they're talented guys with a good head on their shoulders. Both could rebound in a big way as soon as next season.

Agreed. I’m just putting it out here to help someone because for whatever reason this forum (generally speaking) seems to think Jeudy gained value from his late 1st price tag last offseason.

Nope but I can't see how 856 yards with Drew Lock later he would have lost it. Early 2nd lol

No sane Jeudy owner would flip him for the chance to draft a tier 4 WR talent

Jeudy is a hold for that reason. I wouldn't sell him for a 2nd to get into the Moore/Marshall/Brown tier. That said, I don't expect anyone to give me a 1st either and forego the chance of drafting Bateman/Waddle

[Farley]

WR's since 2010 with less than 47 YPG but over 75 PFF Grade their rookie years;

Antonio Brown 83.7
Demaryius Thomas 82.7
Tyreek Hill 80.6
Chris Godwin 80.4
Hunter Renfrow 76.5
Arrelious Benn 76
Lockett 75.8

It seems 80+ PFF Rookie Grade is ideal when the rookie receiver misses the 47 YPG threshold as a rookie. 75+ has a couple of misses such as Arrelious Benn and potentially Hunter Renfrow. Lockett has been good but not exactly a stud. In any event, guys like Lockett, Benn and Renfrow could be worth low cost dart throws even if you only hit 1 out of 3.

*All receivers with 15+ receptions and 80+ grade are accounted for. 75-79 group it's unclear if every receiver is accounted for.

Very interesting stat. Demaryius was a great WR talent. This stat looks like a good yardstick.

I think Renfrow is a sleeper. He could be a consistent 90 catch 1000 yd 10TD guy for a few years. He runs precise routes, has great hands, and is ridiculously tough. The only thing he's missing is a consistently accurate QB. I'm targeting Renfrow as a late pick in every league.

Benn shares a name with my son (diff spelling) but I don't have much faith in him. Lockettl, of course, is good enough to verify the statistic.

You're not a big believer in the classic 11th year, post-retirement breakout?

[StripesOfKC]

Agreed. I’m just putting it out here to help someone because for whatever reason this forum (generally speaking) seems to think Jeudy gained value from his late 1st price tag last offseason.

Nope but I can't see how 856 yards with Drew Lock later he would have lost it. Early 2nd lol

No sane Jeudy owner would flip him for the chance to draft a tier 4 WR talent

Late 1st to early 2nd isn’t that big of a drop. No sane Jeudy owner would expect to get back what they used to draft him at this point in time.

1.7 according to Mizelle data in August. 1.7 in May

1.7 to 1.9/1.10 is fair

1.7 to grabbing some Rondale Moore level talent at the top of the 2nd is a joke

[Sriracha]

Nope but I can't see how 856 yards with Drew Lock later he would have lost it. Early 2nd lol

No sane Jeudy owner would flip him for the chance to draft a tier 4 WR talent

Late 1st to early 2nd isn’t that big of a drop. No sane Jeudy owner would expect to get back what they used to draft him at this point in time.

1.7 according to Mizelle data in August. 1.7 in May

1.7 to 1.9/1.10 is fair

1.7 to grabbing some Rondale Moore level talent at the top of the 2nd is a joke

I believe he's talking about SF.

I'd personally take him right around Terrace Marshall.

[jjleurquin]

Yea Superflex I was referring to. In 1QB his price would be like late 1st then.

[honcho55]

Agreed. I’m just putting it out here to help someone because for whatever reason this forum (generally speaking) seems to think Jeudy gained value from his late 1st price tag last offseason.

Nope but I can't see how 856 yards with Drew Lock later he would have lost it. Early 2nd lol

No sane Jeudy owner would flip him for the chance to draft a tier 4 WR talent

Jeudy is a hold for that reason. I wouldn't sell him for a 2nd to get into the Moore/Marshall/Brown tier. That said, I don't expect anyone to give me a 1st either and forego the chance of drafting Bateman/Waddle

I agree with this post.

I’d have Jeudy worth around 1.11 in SF right now. Subject to change, of course. Would not take any second. Would not expect any first.

For reference, I don’t have him on any teams, but was super high on him a year ago today. Just not enough to take him over RBs, or move up/trade for him.

[Anteaters]

You're not a big believer in the classic 11th year, post-retirement breakout?

D'oH!!!!!!
(I wasn't big on him, OBVIOUSLY, because while the name was familiar, I couldn't place him. I figured if I couldn't place him (and I was too lazy to refresh my memory) he must not be someone I was planning to pursue.)

[Anteaters]

I think Renfrow is a sleeper. He could be a consistent 90 catch 1000 yd 10TD guy for a few years. He runs precise routes, has great hands, and is ridiculously tough. The only thing he's missing is a consistently accurate QB. I'm targeting Renfrow as a late pick in every league.

Consistent 90/1k/10??? That sounds awfully high considering he's averaged 52/630/3 his first 2 years but hey he's pretty cheap right now and if youre right, that's a steal

I look at Renfrow is someone who will benefit from a learning all the tricks of the trade over 3-4 seasons, then busting out later. Like Wes Welker not getting enough love in Miami but becoming a star in NE. Or Hines Ward putting up 1500 combined yds over 3 seasons, before eight 900+yd seasons over his next 9 seasons. Or Emmanuel Sanders, who had 4 years of slow growth before breaking out with 3500+ yds over years 5-7.

It's no guarantee at all. Even if he does break out that big, it might be the 2022 season. But I see the potential in Renfrow. I won't reach for him, but I'll try to get him on all my rosters if I have room.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So this PFF grade thing was really making me wonder so I actually paid for a PFF subscription to look at this. Results are interesting. Nothing a whole lot to gain but something maybe. I was going to make a new thread to put this alongside an updated version of this thread but then i got lazy. Some grades for some players are only based on maybe 20 targets or so, so take some of these numbers with a grain of salt. I probably should have identified the low target players but I forgot.

I should also mention that I used their receiving grades and not their overall grades. Overall grade tended to get some false positives with receivers who are good at rushing like Cordarelle Patterson. It seemed far better and consistent to use receiving grade instead.



PFF Grade for Studs (All YPG groups)
Average 73.9
High 91.2 (OBJ)
Low 62 (Jordy Nelson)

PFF Grade for Good (All YPG groups)
Average 67.7
High 80.4 (Doug Baldwin)
Low 59.9 (Pierre Garcon)

PFF Grade for Bust (37+ YPG)
READ - The busts average is misleading because I didn't look up the pff grade for all busts, it was only busts for the higher YPG (like 37+ or so), so the average really should be lower. But not much lower. Maybe by 5 points or so, as was the drop from the studs group to the good group.
Average 67.8
High 75.1 (Kenny Britt)
Low 57.5 (Greg Little)


So basically the higher the pff grade the better, but there isn't some massive difference between the groups. Only about 5 points or so on average separate the groups.

_____________________________________________________________

Below are all rookie wr's sorted into categories. 80+ has a great success rate. Under 60 has a high failure rate. However, I've noticed in more recent years that several under 60 receivers have broken out in subsequent years. So not sure what is going on there. I highlighted the ones that have had mini-breakouts. Still, not ideal for Ruggs

I should mention I included their entire rookie season, so regular season plus playoffs


WR's as Rookies

80+ PFF Grade - These guys basically don't bust.
Dwayne Bowe
Percy Harvin
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Doug Baldwin
Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
JJ Nelson (28 targets)
Michael Thomas
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
AJ Brown
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk


75-80 PFF Grade - At first I thought the 75-80 group was very promising, and it's good but not quite as promising as I thought.
Santonio Holmes
Marques Colston
Sidney Rice
Anthony Gonzalez
Davone Bess
Kenny Britt
Arrelious Benn
Andrew Hawkins
Damaris Johnson
Jarvis Landry
Stefon Diggs
Tyler Lockett
Tyreek Hill (80+ if ignore the playoffs)
Cooper Kupp
Hunter Renfrow
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool


<60 PFF Grade
Hank Baskett
Chad Jackson
Derek Hagan
Laurent Robinson
Dwayne Jarrett
Chaz Schilens
Harry Douglas
Devin Thomas
James Hardy
Keenan Burton
Deon Butler
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Donald Jones
Riley Cooper
Dexter McCluster
Max Komar
Andre Roberts
Stephen Williams
Jonathan Baldwin
Dane Sanzenbacher
Greg Little
Rishard Matthews
Lavon Brazill
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Kevin Elliott
TJ Graham
Keshawn Martin
Josh Boyce
Da’Rick Rogers
Darius Johnson
Ty Montgomery
Darius Jennings
Rashad Greene
Donteea Dye
Devin Smith
Nelson Agholor (48.5)
Keith Mumphery
Josh Docston
Charone Peake
Ricardo Louis
Robby Anderson (56.4)
Braxton Miller
Taywan Taylor
Josh Reynolds
Curtis Samuel (53.6)
Zay Jones
Mike Williams (51.8)
Travis Rudloph
DJ Chark (51.6)
James Washington
Marcell Ateman
Trent Sherfield
Damion Ratley
Miles Boykin
Parris Campbell
KeeSean Johnson
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Tyler Johnson
Isaiah Wright
Freddie Swain
Henry Ruggs
KJ Hamler
John Hightower

______________________________________

In short, I think the simplest way to use pff grading of rookie wr's is to look at who is over 80 and who is under 60. Anything else ends up in a mish mash of results. [edit: and seemingly over 75+ gives you a nice floor when combined with a decent YPG]. Yes, on average the higher the better, but to say always take the receiver graded at 72 over the receiver graded 67 might not get you the best results.

[Pac_Eddy]

Thanks for all this work and for buying a PFF subscription. Very interesting information.