WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:44 am
Given current information, odds for players who entered the league between the years of 2016-2019 of becoming a star player[i.e. 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons];
83% (Year 1 Breakout for 1k yards)
Michael Thomas
AJ Brown
52% (Year 2 or 3 Breakout for 1k yards)
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyreek Hill
D.J. Moore
Juju Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
Chris Godwin
Tyler Boyd
Cooper Kupp
Mike Williams
42-44% (60-69 rookie receptions or 900-999 rookie receiving yards)
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
Calvin Ridley
Sterling Shepard
28-29% (50-59 rookie receptions or 700-899 rookie receiving yards)
Diontae Johnson
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Keelan Cole
5-10% (Every player not listed above)
- Notable players include Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman, Preston Williams, Anthony Miller, Corey Davis, Andy Isabella, JJAWS, Parris Campbell, Curtis Samuel, N'Keal Harry , John Ross, Miles Boykin, Josh Reynolds, Robby Anderson
__________________________________________________________________________________
For whatever reason, my hypothesis was that receivers with high draft pedigree (top 3 rounds) who broke out their first 2 years in the NFL had a much better success rate than others. I decided to do a little research and my results were very interesting.
I looked at the period of 1995-2015 and did the best I could to identify receivers who broke out for 1k receiving yards in the NFL. I noted which year they broke out and whether or not they continued to be "good" [i.e. 3+ 1k yard seasons] or if they fell off [i.e. "busted"].
edited: re-did the study and I believe these are more accurate numbers
Year 1 Breakout
Hits – 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%
Year 2 breakout
Hits – 18
Busts – 18
Hit Rate – 50%
Bust Rate – 50%
Year 3 breakout
Hits – 17
Busts – 14
Hit Rate – 55%
Bust Rate – 45%
Year 4 breakout
Hits – 11
Busts – 13
Hit Rate – 46%
Bust Rate – 54%
Year 5 breakout
Hits – 7
Busts – 9
Hit rate – 44%
Bust rate – 56%
The difference between a year 1 and year 2 was (edit: significant). Also, the difference between year 2 - 5 was just as shocking in that it was almost nonexistent.
If we want to use this information towards the current "unknown" players (so players from 2016-now), this puts Michael Thomas and AJB in a tier above everyone else.
While it may not be breaking news that WRs who break out their 1st year in the NFL are good, I think it is confirmation that buying high on these players is a safe play. For example, buying high on AJB right now while the trend is to fade his efficiency could be savvy move. On the other hand, buying high on 2nd and 3rd year breakout players might not be quite as safe as you'd think.
One interesting thing is that the "busts" for the year 1 breakout group were Kelvin Benjamin and Michael Clayton. KB was well known as a turd athlete. Claytons testing is a bit more ambiguous but i'm seeing reports of a 4.67 40 as well. I think best case scenario we are looking at both being subpar athletes here.
__________________________________________________________________________
Rookie Reception Yards Per Game, min 8 games played
67+
Hits – 9
Busts – 1
Hit Rate – 90%
Bust Rate – 10%
2016-2019 Rookies
Michael Thomas
_________________________________________
57-66
Hits – 7
Busts – 8
Hit Rate – 47%
Bust Rate – 53%
11 of 15 (73%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
A.J. Brown
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Cooper Kupp
_________________________________________
47-56
Hits – 8
Busts – 21
Hit Rate – 28%
Bust Rate – 72%
22 of 29 (76%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
DK Metcalf
Preston Williams
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Calvin Ridley
D.J. Moore
Christian Kirk
_________________________________________
37-46
Hits – 3
Busts – 39
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%
10 of 42 (24%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
Keelan Cole
Hunter Renfrow
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Courtland Sutton
Kenny Golladay
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Marquise Brown
Robert Foster
Corey Coleman
Dante Pettis
Tyler Boyd
Tyreek Hill
_________________________________________
27-36
Hits – 6
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
11 of 63 (17%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Corey Davis
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup
Breshad Perriman
Trent Taylor
Malcolm Mitchell
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Equanimeous St. Brown
_________________________________________
17-26
Hits – 7
Busts – 66
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
13 of 73 (18%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
Keith Kirkwood
Cody Core
Jakobi Meyers
Kendrick Bourne
Kelvin Harmon
Zay Jones
Geronimo Allison
Ricky Seals-Jones
Scott Miller
Tim Patrick
Chester Rogers
Steven Sims
KeeSean Johnson
Olabisi Johnson
DaeSean Hamilton
_________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
Breakdowns by rookie season yardage and receptions
Defining a hit by 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
Draft Position is Ignored
1995-2015
Rookie season yardage
1000+
Hits - 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas
A.J. Brown
________________________________________
900-999
Hits 4
Busts 5
Hit rate 44%
Bust rate 56%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
D.K. Metcalf
________________________________________
800-899
Hits 4
Busts 11
Hit rate 27%
Bust rate 73%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Cooper Kupp
Calvin Ridley
Deebo Samuel
________________________________________
700-799
Hits 6
Busts 14
Hit rate 30%
Bust rate 70%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
D.J. Moore
Keelan Cole
Darius Slayton
Courtland Sutton
________________________________________
600-699
Hits 1
Busts 17
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Will Fuller
Hunter Renfrow
Tyler Boyd
________________________________________
500-599
Hits 2
Busts 29
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Eli Rogers
Tyreek Hill
Christian Kirk
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquise Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Robert Foster
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup
________________________________________
400-499
Hits – 2
Busts – 33
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Breshad Perriman
Kenny Golladay
Dante Pettis
Trent Taylor
Preston Williams
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Malcolm Mitchell
________________________________________
300-399
Hits – 6
Busts – 28
Hit Rate – 18%
Bust Rate – 82%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Corey Davis
Kelvin Harmon
Jakobi Meyers
Dede Westbrook
Equanimeous St. Brown
Zay Jones
Tim Patrick
Steven Sims
________________________________________
200-299
Hits – 5
Busts – 65
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Olabisi Johnson
Keke Coutee
Zach Pascal
Kendrick Bourne
Taywan Taylor
James Washington
Scott miller
________________________________________
100-199
Hits – 6
Busts – 95
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella
KeeSean Johnson
Kevin White
DJ Chark
JJAWS
Parris Campbell
Curtis Samuel
N'Keal Harry
Josh Reynolds
________________________________________
0-99
There were hundreds of names so I didn't go through them all with a fine toothed comb, but from what I can gather the hit rate is at about 1%. Vincent Jackson, Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Amani Toomer the hits in nearly 600 names.
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Chad Hansen
Trey Quinn
Riley Ridley
Russell Gage
Auden Tate
Allen Lazard
Justin Watson
John Ross
Mike Williams
Leonte Carroo
Josh Doctson
Braxton Miller
Demarcus Robinson
"Good" Mike Thomas
Lequon Treadwell
- Even if you cross reference by draft round, the highest hit rate I can get for the 500-599 group is 10%. So draft capital really doesn’t seem to play much of a role.
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
Rookie Season Receptions
100+
Hits 1
Busts 0
Hit rate 100%
Bust rate 0%
________________________________________
90-99
Hits 2
Busts 1
Hit rate 67%
Bust rate 33%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas
________________________________________
80-89
Hits 1
Busts 1
Hit rate 50%
Bust rate 50%
________________________________________
70-79
Hits 4
Busts 1
Hit rate 80%
Bust rate 20%
________________________________________
60-69
Hits 8
Busts 11
Hit rate 42%
Bust rate 58%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Calvin Ridley
Cooper Kupp
Tyreek Hill
________________________________________
50-59
Hits 7
Busts 18
Hit rate 28%
Bust rate 72%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
D.J. Moore
Tyler Boyd
A.J. Brown
________________________________________
40-49
Hits – 2
Busts – 34
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Hunter Renfrow
Darius Slayton
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Marquise Brown
Antonio Callaway
Christian Kirk
Trent Taylor
Courtland Sutton
Keelan Cole
Robby Anderson
Tajae Sharpe
________________________________________
30-39
Hits – 4
Busts – 44
Hit Rate – 8%
Bust Rate – 92%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Steven Sims
Corey Davis
Chris Godwin
Michael Gallup
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Breshad Perriman
Preston Williams
Malcolm Mitchell
Olabisi Johnson
Kelvin Harmon
DaeSean Hamilton
________________________________________
20-29
Hits – 10
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 15%
Bust Rate – 85%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Greg Ward
Keke Coutee
Tre`Quan Smith
Kenny Golladay
Robert Foster
Zach Pascal
Dante Pettis
Zay Jones
Dede Westbrook
Mecole Hardman
Jakobi Meyers
Ty Johnson
Tim Patrick
DeAndre Carter
KeeSean Johnson
Dquanimeous St. Brown
________________________________________
10-19
Hits – 5
Busts – 102
Hit Rate – 5%
Bust Rate – 95%
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Kevin White
Parris CAmpbell
James Washington
Kendrick Bourne
Curtis Samuel
DJ Chark
Miles Boykin
Scott Miller
N'Keal Harry
Mike Williams
JJAWS
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
Below are 1k yard breakout years for wrs
*** indicates a "bust"
2019
AJ Brown – Year 1
2018
DJ Moore – Year 2
Courtland Sutton – Year 2
DJ Chark – Year 2
Michael Gallup – Year 2
2017
Mike Williams – Year 3
Juju Smith-Schuster – Year 2
Cooper Kupp – Year 3
Chris Godwin – Year 3
Kenny Golladay – Year 2
2016
Michael Thomas – Year 1
Tyler Boyd – Year 3
________________________________________
2015
Amari Cooper – Year 1
2014
Sammy Watkins – Year 2 ***
Mike Evans – Year 1
Odell Beckham Jr. – Year 1
Brandin Cooks – Year 2
Kelvin Benjamin – Year 1 ***
Allen Robinson – Year 2
Jarvis Landry – Year 2
2013
DeAndre Hopkins – Year 2
Keenan Allen – Year 1
2012
Michael Floyd – Year 2 ***
Kendall Wright – Year 2 ***
Alshon Jeffery – Year 2
TY Hilton – Year 3
2011
A.J. Green – Year 1
Julio Jones – Year 2
Torrey Smith – Year 3 ***
2010
Demaryius Thomas – Year 3
Dez Bryant – Year 3
Eric Decker – Year 3
2009
Hakeem Nicks – Year 2 ***
Mike Wallace – Year 3
2008
Desean Jackson – Year 2
2007
Calvin Johnson – Year 2
Dwayne Bowe – Year 2
Sidney Rice – Year 3
Steve Smith [NYG ] – Year 3 ***
2006
Greg Jennings – Year 3
2005
Braylon Edwards – Year 3 ***
Roddy White – Year 3
2004
Larry Fitzgerald – Year 2
Roy Williams – Year 3 ***
Lee Evans – Year 3 ***
Michael Clayton – Year 1 ***
2003
Andre Johnson – Year 2
Anquon Boldin – Year 1
Nate Burleson – Year 2 ***
2002
Ashley Lelie – Year 3 ***
Javon Walker – Year 3 ***
2001
Koren Robinson – Year 2 ***
Rod Gardner – Year 2 ***
Santana Moss – Year 3
Chad Johnson – Year 2
Steve Smith – Year 3
2000
Plaxico Burress – Year 2
Laveranues Coles – Year 3
Darrell Jackson – Year 2
1999
Torry Holt – Year 2
David Boston – Year 2 ***
Kevin Johnson – Year 3 ***
Marty Booker – Year 3 ***
1998
Randy Moss – Year 1
Germane Crowell – Year 2 ***
1996
Keyshawn Johnson – Year 3
Tarry Glenn – Year 1
Eric Moulds – Year 3
Terrell Owens – Year 3
1995
Joey Galloway – Year 1
Frank Sanders – Year 3 ***
Antonio Freeman – Year 3
________________________________________
83% (Year 1 Breakout for 1k yards)
Michael Thomas
AJ Brown
52% (Year 2 or 3 Breakout for 1k yards)
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyreek Hill
D.J. Moore
Juju Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
Chris Godwin
Tyler Boyd
Cooper Kupp
Mike Williams
42-44% (60-69 rookie receptions or 900-999 rookie receiving yards)
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
Calvin Ridley
Sterling Shepard
28-29% (50-59 rookie receptions or 700-899 rookie receiving yards)
Diontae Johnson
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Keelan Cole
5-10% (Every player not listed above)
- Notable players include Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman, Preston Williams, Anthony Miller, Corey Davis, Andy Isabella, JJAWS, Parris Campbell, Curtis Samuel, N'Keal Harry , John Ross, Miles Boykin, Josh Reynolds, Robby Anderson
__________________________________________________________________________________
For whatever reason, my hypothesis was that receivers with high draft pedigree (top 3 rounds) who broke out their first 2 years in the NFL had a much better success rate than others. I decided to do a little research and my results were very interesting.
I looked at the period of 1995-2015 and did the best I could to identify receivers who broke out for 1k receiving yards in the NFL. I noted which year they broke out and whether or not they continued to be "good" [i.e. 3+ 1k yard seasons] or if they fell off [i.e. "busted"].
edited: re-did the study and I believe these are more accurate numbers
Year 1 Breakout
Hits – 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%
Year 2 breakout
Hits – 18
Busts – 18
Hit Rate – 50%
Bust Rate – 50%
Year 3 breakout
Hits – 17
Busts – 14
Hit Rate – 55%
Bust Rate – 45%
Year 4 breakout
Hits – 11
Busts – 13
Hit Rate – 46%
Bust Rate – 54%
Year 5 breakout
Hits – 7
Busts – 9
Hit rate – 44%
Bust rate – 56%
The difference between a year 1 and year 2 was (edit: significant). Also, the difference between year 2 - 5 was just as shocking in that it was almost nonexistent.
If we want to use this information towards the current "unknown" players (so players from 2016-now), this puts Michael Thomas and AJB in a tier above everyone else.
While it may not be breaking news that WRs who break out their 1st year in the NFL are good, I think it is confirmation that buying high on these players is a safe play. For example, buying high on AJB right now while the trend is to fade his efficiency could be savvy move. On the other hand, buying high on 2nd and 3rd year breakout players might not be quite as safe as you'd think.
One interesting thing is that the "busts" for the year 1 breakout group were Kelvin Benjamin and Michael Clayton. KB was well known as a turd athlete. Claytons testing is a bit more ambiguous but i'm seeing reports of a 4.67 40 as well. I think best case scenario we are looking at both being subpar athletes here.
__________________________________________________________________________
Rookie Reception Yards Per Game, min 8 games played
67+
Hits – 9
Busts – 1
Hit Rate – 90%
Bust Rate – 10%
2016-2019 Rookies
Michael Thomas
_________________________________________
57-66
Hits – 7
Busts – 8
Hit Rate – 47%
Bust Rate – 53%
11 of 15 (73%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
A.J. Brown
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Cooper Kupp
_________________________________________
47-56
Hits – 8
Busts – 21
Hit Rate – 28%
Bust Rate – 72%
22 of 29 (76%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
DK Metcalf
Preston Williams
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Calvin Ridley
D.J. Moore
Christian Kirk
_________________________________________
37-46
Hits – 3
Busts – 39
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%
10 of 42 (24%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
Keelan Cole
Hunter Renfrow
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Courtland Sutton
Kenny Golladay
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Marquise Brown
Robert Foster
Corey Coleman
Dante Pettis
Tyler Boyd
Tyreek Hill
_________________________________________
27-36
Hits – 6
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
11 of 63 (17%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Corey Davis
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup
Breshad Perriman
Trent Taylor
Malcolm Mitchell
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Equanimeous St. Brown
_________________________________________
17-26
Hits – 7
Busts – 66
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
13 of 73 (18%) fantasy relevant for several years
2016-2019 Rookies
Keith Kirkwood
Cody Core
Jakobi Meyers
Kendrick Bourne
Kelvin Harmon
Zay Jones
Geronimo Allison
Ricky Seals-Jones
Scott Miller
Tim Patrick
Chester Rogers
Steven Sims
KeeSean Johnson
Olabisi Johnson
DaeSean Hamilton
_________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
Breakdowns by rookie season yardage and receptions
Defining a hit by 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
Draft Position is Ignored
1995-2015
Rookie season yardage
1000+
Hits - 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas
A.J. Brown
________________________________________
900-999
Hits 4
Busts 5
Hit rate 44%
Bust rate 56%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
D.K. Metcalf
________________________________________
800-899
Hits 4
Busts 11
Hit rate 27%
Bust rate 73%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Cooper Kupp
Calvin Ridley
Deebo Samuel
________________________________________
700-799
Hits 6
Busts 14
Hit rate 30%
Bust rate 70%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
D.J. Moore
Keelan Cole
Darius Slayton
Courtland Sutton
________________________________________
600-699
Hits 1
Busts 17
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Will Fuller
Hunter Renfrow
Tyler Boyd
________________________________________
500-599
Hits 2
Busts 29
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Eli Rogers
Tyreek Hill
Christian Kirk
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquise Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Robert Foster
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup
________________________________________
400-499
Hits – 2
Busts – 33
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Breshad Perriman
Kenny Golladay
Dante Pettis
Trent Taylor
Preston Williams
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Malcolm Mitchell
________________________________________
300-399
Hits – 6
Busts – 28
Hit Rate – 18%
Bust Rate – 82%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Corey Davis
Kelvin Harmon
Jakobi Meyers
Dede Westbrook
Equanimeous St. Brown
Zay Jones
Tim Patrick
Steven Sims
________________________________________
200-299
Hits – 5
Busts – 65
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Olabisi Johnson
Keke Coutee
Zach Pascal
Kendrick Bourne
Taywan Taylor
James Washington
Scott miller
________________________________________
100-199
Hits – 6
Busts – 95
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella
KeeSean Johnson
Kevin White
DJ Chark
JJAWS
Parris Campbell
Curtis Samuel
N'Keal Harry
Josh Reynolds
________________________________________
0-99
There were hundreds of names so I didn't go through them all with a fine toothed comb, but from what I can gather the hit rate is at about 1%. Vincent Jackson, Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Amani Toomer the hits in nearly 600 names.
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Chad Hansen
Trey Quinn
Riley Ridley
Russell Gage
Auden Tate
Allen Lazard
Justin Watson
John Ross
Mike Williams
Leonte Carroo
Josh Doctson
Braxton Miller
Demarcus Robinson
"Good" Mike Thomas
Lequon Treadwell
- Even if you cross reference by draft round, the highest hit rate I can get for the 500-599 group is 10%. So draft capital really doesn’t seem to play much of a role.
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
Rookie Season Receptions
100+
Hits 1
Busts 0
Hit rate 100%
Bust rate 0%
________________________________________
90-99
Hits 2
Busts 1
Hit rate 67%
Bust rate 33%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas
________________________________________
80-89
Hits 1
Busts 1
Hit rate 50%
Bust rate 50%
________________________________________
70-79
Hits 4
Busts 1
Hit rate 80%
Bust rate 20%
________________________________________
60-69
Hits 8
Busts 11
Hit rate 42%
Bust rate 58%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Calvin Ridley
Cooper Kupp
Tyreek Hill
________________________________________
50-59
Hits 7
Busts 18
Hit rate 28%
Bust rate 72%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
D.J. Moore
Tyler Boyd
A.J. Brown
________________________________________
40-49
Hits – 2
Busts – 34
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Hunter Renfrow
Darius Slayton
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Marquise Brown
Antonio Callaway
Christian Kirk
Trent Taylor
Courtland Sutton
Keelan Cole
Robby Anderson
Tajae Sharpe
________________________________________
30-39
Hits – 4
Busts – 44
Hit Rate – 8%
Bust Rate – 92%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Steven Sims
Corey Davis
Chris Godwin
Michael Gallup
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Breshad Perriman
Preston Williams
Malcolm Mitchell
Olabisi Johnson
Kelvin Harmon
DaeSean Hamilton
________________________________________
20-29
Hits – 10
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 15%
Bust Rate – 85%
Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Greg Ward
Keke Coutee
Tre`Quan Smith
Kenny Golladay
Robert Foster
Zach Pascal
Dante Pettis
Zay Jones
Dede Westbrook
Mecole Hardman
Jakobi Meyers
Ty Johnson
Tim Patrick
DeAndre Carter
KeeSean Johnson
Dquanimeous St. Brown
________________________________________
10-19
Hits – 5
Busts – 102
Hit Rate – 5%
Bust Rate – 95%
Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Kevin White
Parris CAmpbell
James Washington
Kendrick Bourne
Curtis Samuel
DJ Chark
Miles Boykin
Scott Miller
N'Keal Harry
Mike Williams
JJAWS
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
Below are 1k yard breakout years for wrs
*** indicates a "bust"
2019
AJ Brown – Year 1
2018
DJ Moore – Year 2
Courtland Sutton – Year 2
DJ Chark – Year 2
Michael Gallup – Year 2
2017
Mike Williams – Year 3
Juju Smith-Schuster – Year 2
Cooper Kupp – Year 3
Chris Godwin – Year 3
Kenny Golladay – Year 2
2016
Michael Thomas – Year 1
Tyler Boyd – Year 3
________________________________________
2015
Amari Cooper – Year 1
2014
Sammy Watkins – Year 2 ***
Mike Evans – Year 1
Odell Beckham Jr. – Year 1
Brandin Cooks – Year 2
Kelvin Benjamin – Year 1 ***
Allen Robinson – Year 2
Jarvis Landry – Year 2
2013
DeAndre Hopkins – Year 2
Keenan Allen – Year 1
2012
Michael Floyd – Year 2 ***
Kendall Wright – Year 2 ***
Alshon Jeffery – Year 2
TY Hilton – Year 3
2011
A.J. Green – Year 1
Julio Jones – Year 2
Torrey Smith – Year 3 ***
2010
Demaryius Thomas – Year 3
Dez Bryant – Year 3
Eric Decker – Year 3
2009
Hakeem Nicks – Year 2 ***
Mike Wallace – Year 3
2008
Desean Jackson – Year 2
2007
Calvin Johnson – Year 2
Dwayne Bowe – Year 2
Sidney Rice – Year 3
Steve Smith [NYG ] – Year 3 ***
2006
Greg Jennings – Year 3
2005
Braylon Edwards – Year 3 ***
Roddy White – Year 3
2004
Larry Fitzgerald – Year 2
Roy Williams – Year 3 ***
Lee Evans – Year 3 ***
Michael Clayton – Year 1 ***
2003
Andre Johnson – Year 2
Anquon Boldin – Year 1
Nate Burleson – Year 2 ***
2002
Ashley Lelie – Year 3 ***
Javon Walker – Year 3 ***
2001
Koren Robinson – Year 2 ***
Rod Gardner – Year 2 ***
Santana Moss – Year 3
Chad Johnson – Year 2
Steve Smith – Year 3
2000
Plaxico Burress – Year 2
Laveranues Coles – Year 3
Darrell Jackson – Year 2
1999
Torry Holt – Year 2
David Boston – Year 2 ***
Kevin Johnson – Year 3 ***
Marty Booker – Year 3 ***
1998
Randy Moss – Year 1
Germane Crowell – Year 2 ***
1996
Keyshawn Johnson – Year 3
Tarry Glenn – Year 1
Eric Moulds – Year 3
Terrell Owens – Year 3
1995
Joey Galloway – Year 1
Frank Sanders – Year 3 ***
Antonio Freeman – Year 3
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